SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

With all due respect, you think this small sample of specific subset (7%) is better than a bigger random sample (2.5%). That is only because you want it to be true. It is not how statistics and probabilities work.

No no, I don't.

I just passed on the reported info man.

And you should be intelligent enough to know that a test showing 2.5% that finishing a week ago, might actually increase a week later?

You think Swedes are god, I understand that. Everybody makes mistakes here, Germans, Finns, Swedes everybody, it isn't impossible. If you provide me with a link where they break-down how they calculate the 5 days, I can take a look and probably agree with it. But there are so many things we don't know, that mistakes are obviously possible. That is why it is better to have sources from 5-10 countries, not just 1, whether Sweden, Ger, SKorea or elsewhere.

And there you go again, I pass on info, you think I'm reporting Sweden as God. It was factual info man, that I neither praised, nor slated Sweden for, what the feck is wrong with you @massi83 ? How can I praise the percentage of infected people, in what World does that even make sense? Stop creating a strawman ffs.

If anything, you have an issue in thinking you can "take a look and agree" with Karolinska Institut? how are you qualified for that massi? What do you work with?

 

[Volumiza]

I thought this was debunked? It's something they do every year isn't it, due to the toxicity of the water?

Was it? Is it? Right. I’ll go back to sleep then.

 

[711]

Maybe instead of putting dye into the Blue Lagoon resources would be better spend making sure people flying in from New York actually go into quarentine.

You know what? I’d almost forgotten about this already. It’s incredible that someone actually thought that was a good idea and a solution to absolutely anything!

I thought this was debunked? It's something they do every year isn't it, due to the toxicity of the water?

Completely debunked.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/blue-lagoon-of-buxton
Often the case with media 'isn't it incredibly stupid' stories, when you delve into it they're not.

 

[Zlatan 7]

You know what? I’d almost forgotten about this already. It’s incredible that someone actually thought that was a good idea and a solution to absolutely anything!

It’s done regularly not just because of this Covid. Been pointed out in this thread

 

[massi83]

No no, I don't.

I just passed on the reported info man.

And you should be intelligent enough to know that a test showing 2.5% that finishing 9 days ago, might actually increase 8 days later?



And there you go again, I pass on info, you think I'm reporting Sweden as God. It was factual info man, that I neither praised, nor slated Sweden for, what the feck is wrong with you @massi83 ?

If anything, you have an issue in thinking you can "take a look and agree" with Karolinska Institut? how are you qualified for that massi? What do you work with?

Good, I was afraid for a sec

All of the models are based on assumptions. Many of the numbers are intertwined. If the assumption is that there are more asymptomatic people and this spreads quicker, it affects directly the death rate and so on. Of course they are better than I am. I am interested in comparing their data with other countries data, and then having more data points to come to conclusions. We are all wasting our time here, I am not an expert. But as long as we are here might as well do the analysis properly and for that the asumptions they make in their models are needed in comparing it with other countries findings.

I do appreciate you giving me info from Sweden, thanks for that

 

[Volumiza]

Completely debunked.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/blue-lagoon-of-buxton
Often the case with media 'isn't it incredibly stupid' stories, when you delve into it they're not.

Now I feel a right dork! Thanks.

Note to self: improve delving.

 

[Wolverine]

Their official line/spin with regards to PPE is that frontline are not using this “precious resource” appropriately. Unbelievable how due to a servile media that this Tory party will get away scot free despite committing corporate manslaughter

 

[massi83]

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/coronatestar-alla-gravida-pa-forlossningen-sju-procent-smittade

@Pogue Mahone & @massi83 will be interested in this.

Karolinska have tested all women coming into to give birth over the past 2 weeks and 7% were positive. Same again here, the virus only grows well in the lab if taken within first 5 days, so after that time it’s very difficult to get a positive test. (For those with no or mild symptoms).

320 gravida kvinnor har testats för covid-19 på Karolinska universitetssjukhuset i Solna och Huddinge de senaste två veckorna. 23 av dessa, ungefär sju procent, visade sig vara smittade.

And if you read your article you would have noticed it wasn't done after the random sampling, but in the last 2 weeks

 

[AneRu]

Hey guys, I haven't posted on the forum since the football stopped (don't know why exactly) and have limited myself to only visiting this thread and reading mostly depressing updates.

Well I noticed a discussion about developing countries and their ability to cope and thought I would share a few articles that I came across from my country. In reality we are in deep trouble and I am really scared that in a month from now Italy will look like a picnic compared to the disaster that will emerge from Zimbabwe in particular.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.th.../05/covid-19-struck-family-speaks-ordeal/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsday.co.zw/2020/04/covid-19-govt-bungling-exposed/amp/

The long and short of it is that the government is not prepared at all and doesn't really care enough also even if they did they don't have the capacity to invest in a robust response system required to tackle this disease. Food and cash shortages also make social distancing a luxury that the poor can't afford as they have to queue in their thousands for mealie meal, a staple here.

With unemployment of over 90% the economy is heavily informal with many resorting to vending and therefore live from hand to mouth meaning that they can't afford to stay indoors. It's really a case of having to choose between contracting the virus or watching your family starve.

Then comes the issue of around 16% of the population living with HIV and another significant number living with it but without knowing it, some have diabetes and hypertension amongst other high risk preexisting conditions. If ever there was a country and continent completely vulnerable to COVID-19 then it's hard to look past Zimbabwe and Africa.
Edit- meant for this post to be on the Corona Virus thread in the general.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

One thing I don't understand with regards to the Sweden discussion which is becoming really tiresome. It makes little sense to me to look at their numbers on a day-to-day basis and then compare them to other countries and draw conclusions from that. I mean, shouldn't it be obvious that Sweden has more infections and more deaths relative to other nations who went into lockdown? If they didn't, then surely all the stricter measures others have taken would be rendered pretty useless. The point is that this must have been a conscious decision by the Swedish government. Keeping the ecomomy alive to be better off when this is all over. You have to factor in the long-term social and economic consequences of shutting down society and all the people who will get sick or even die because of it. Time will tell how Sweden's numbers compare to the rest of Europe in 12-18 months.

Before anyone jumps at me for suggesting governments "let" people die, let me remind you that every government does that all the time. If we really wanted to save every single life we would have be completely locked down, literally. No country has done that. It is always a trade-off. I'm not taking sides here or suggesting that Sweden's way is right and personally I'm rather glad to be living in a country which has gone into (temporary) lockdown but you have to see the big picture.

 

[Feed Me]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52252470

I think it’s disgraceful that Matt Hancunt was allowed to so obviously deflect onto PL footballers and everyone fell for it hook line and sinker.

When will the UK media start to hold the government properly to account? We make up around 10% of global deaths ffs.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

320 gravida kvinnor har testats för covid-19 på Karolinska universitetssjukhuset i Solna och Huddinge de senaste två veckorna. 23 av dessa, ungefär sju procent, visade sig vara smittade.

And if you read your article you would have noticed it wasn't done after the random sampling, but in the last 2 weeks

Random sampling finished on 3rd April mate. Last 2 weeks finished on 10th or 9th April.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Good, I was afraid for a sec

All of the models are based on assumptions. Many of the numbers are intertwined. If the assumption is that there are more asymptomatic people and this spreads quicker, it affects directly the death rate and so on. Of course they are better than I am. I am interested in comparing their data with other countries data, and then having more data points to come to conclusions. We are all wasting our time here, I am not an expert. But as long as we are here might as well do the analysis properly and for that the asumptions they make in their models are needed in comparing it with other countries findings.

I do appreciate you giving me info from Sweden, thanks for that

No worries pal.

As for thinking "Sweden is God", I'm Manc mate, I think Sweden is a cool country but the people are too cold and the lack of pubs and that warmth of people you feel in other places is sorely missed. Of all of the places I've lived, Auckland, Sydney and Chamonix piss on it in most ways. But when having and raising kids, the nordics are the place to be.

 

[AneRu]

Had posted this in a wrong thread and am too lazy to rewrite such a long post but hopefully it sheds light on what's going on in a poor country from someone already there.
https://www.redcafe.net/threads/uni...-gap-coronavirus-edition.452212/post-25477131

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The point is that this must have been a conscious decision by the Swedish government. Keeping the ecomomy alive to be better off when this is all over.

It's not though, the government don't run the show over here during a pandemic. They allow the myndighet (Health Ministry) to run the show, the government really does have a back seat and take recommendations from the health ministry who state daily how seriously against schools closures amongst other things that they have been.

So if anyone is taking into account the good points you made, it's the ministry of health.

If the ministry of health go to the government and demand lockdown tomorrow, that will happen.

Excellent post by the way, right on the money. Just wanted to make that point.

 

[Revaulx]

Surprisingly I’ve been getting less, although I got a text message saying I won £1000 from Argos so happy days.

Me likewise.

Though my teenage daughter has been promised refunds by the “City Council” and Inland Revenue if she only provides them with her bank details. Fortunately she’s as big a sceptic as me.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/coronatestar-alla-gravida-pa-forlossningen-sju-procent-smittade

@Pogue Mahone & @massi83 will be interested in this.

Karolinska have tested all women coming into to give birth over the past 2 weeks and 7% were positive. Same again here, the virus only grows well in the lab if taken within first 5 days, so after that time it’s very difficult to get a positive test. (For those with no or mild symptoms).

Thanks. So this was PCR test, not serology? 7% of people actively infected, rather than 7% with previous exposure?

 

[TheGame]

This sums the media response up really well:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[giggs-beckham]

That maths just blew my mind.

1.3^10 = 13.78
3^10 = 59,000

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Thanks. So this was PCR test, not serology? 7% of people actively infected, rather than 7% with previous exposure?

Actively infected again yeah, rather than looking for antibodies.

Of the 23 women that were bearing the virus, a small amount of babies tested positive. None of the babies have shown signs of any effect, they have the virus but no symptoms.

I don't think Sweden or Norway appear happy enough with the antibody tests yet to fully trust them, they talk about more work being done. Although that's just my take on it, so don't quote me.

 

[Wolverine]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52252470

I think it’s disgraceful that Matt Hancunt was allowed to so obviously deflect onto PL footballers and everyone fell for it hook line and sinker.

19 nhs staff have passed away but the government is already prepping its corporate manslaughter defence by claiming "We don't yet know whether they caught it at work or in the line of their normal lives like so many people".
And people will eat up what he’s said because of media propaganda and lack of challenge.

NHS staff in emails from trust and daily “reminded” of our social media duties in a non-subtle way. An interesting thing would be if these daily briefings were replaced with questions exclusively from medics or NHS staff.

 

[TheGame]

Disgusting that stuff like this isn’t being asked - they are getting a free pass at the moment and when Boris returns he will be treated like a messiah

Totally agree, nearly a thousand dead and BBC don’t even have it on their front page. Journalists should be ashamed of themselves. No proper scrutiny of the Government’s actions at all.

 

[kouroux]

How long does it take for someone to be cleared "healed" and how do they conclude it ?

 

[Feed Me]

19 nhs staff have passed away but the government is already prepping its corporate manslaughter defence by claiming "We don't yet know whether they caught it at work or in the line of their normal lives like so many people".
And people will eat up what he’s said because of media propaganda and lack of challenge.

NHS staff in emails from trust and daily “reminded” of our social media duties in a non-subtle way. An interesting thing would be if these daily briefings were replaced with questions exclusively from medics or NHS staff.

Great suggestion that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons. I was in hospital recently as my wife gave birth to our second child and the morale amongst staff was okay, but one or two were absolutely scathing about conditions. The press are fecking useless in this country, so it’s going to come down to non mainstream channels creating pressure.

 

[Untied]

I hope so.

Difficult to strike the right balance between -
A: factual reporting
B: asking the right questions of the right people
C: unnecessarily creating worry/panic with the public.

It really just seems to me that the reporting ethos has taken a different direction.

I think his point is that the media in this country functions as state propaganda most of the time and so it is performing that function very effectively.

Nearly 1000 people die and you wouldn’t know it from looking at the front pages of the BBC or Sky or the print press (Guardian excluded).

Honestly the media in this country is a disgrace and most of them don’t deserve to call themselves journalists.

980 people died and the front page of the BBC is highlighting how their fictional hospital drama donated a ventilator. Close it down please.

 

[JPRouve]

Will be interesting to see the care home deaths for UK

France has 4599 care home deaths and 8958 hospital deaths. France has about 50% of care home deaths of the hospital deaths.

This article has a snapshot of care home deaths and is suggesting in the UK most deaths are in the hospitals as most people in care homes will be taken to hospital. That might not be the case in France and in Spain care homes were shockingly abandoned. France's lower hospital numbers might just be much less people in care homes taken to hospital and died there instead.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52196978

UK might have care home deaths in 4-10% range of hospital deaths but we''ll have to see in the coming weeks and months how this pans out.

Had France taken more perhaps the hospital deaths would be often in the 800-900 range or even 1000-1200+ range as France has had multiple combined 1300-1400 deaths in 24hr figures.

France has had zero combined 1300-1400 death in 24 hours. The care homes figures aren't a 24 hour data, it's from March 1st and it's also an overestimation because they basically consider that anyone none tested that died in a care home where someone was tested positive potentially died of covid-19 too. That's why they are not combined.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

FAO people comparing countries. Two things that most people are getting wrong (which is driving me nuts)

1. Number of cases is MASSIVELY influenced by number of tests. Obviously. You cannot compare cases between two countries that have different testing rates/criteria for testing.

2. Number of deaths or number of ITU admissions is a much better metric for comparison but using “per 100k pop” will be biased in favour of more populous countries. If you throw a burning ember into a large field of straw and a small field of straw, your success at putting that fire out will be the field with the lowest number of blades of straw that get burned. Not the lowest number per 100k of total blades.

Thank you for listening. This has been driving me fecking nuts.

EDIT: Can you call straw blades? Sticks maybe?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

FAO people comparing countries. Two things that most people are getting wrong (which is driving me nuts)

1. Number of cases is MASSIVELY influenced by number of tests. Obviously. You cannot compare cases between two countries that have different testing rates/criteria for testing.

2. Number of deaths or number of ITU admissions is a much better metric for comparison but using “per 100k pop” will be biased in favour of more populous countries. If you throw a burning ember into a large field of straw and a small field of straw, your success at putting that fire out will be the field with the lowest number of blades of straw that get burned. Not the lowest number per 100k of total blades.

Thank you for listening. This has been driving me fecking nuts.

Haha, too true.

 

[Josep Dowling]

I think his point is that the media in this country functions as state propaganda most of the time and so it is performing that function very effectively.

Nearly 1000 people die and you wouldn’t know it from looking at the front pages of the BBC or Sky or the print press (Guardian excluded).

Honestly the media in this country is a disgrace and most of them don’t deserve to call themselves journalists.

980 people died and the front page of the BBC is highlighting how their fictional hospital drama donated a ventilator. Close it down please.

I’m not a massive fan of the BBC but what exactly do you want them to do? Have a massive countdown of deaths at the top of their page? If they constantly throw the number of deaths on the front page that will cause mass hysteria and likely start panic buying again.

Maybe they could report more on what is happening in hospital but we already know there isn’t enough staff, enough PPE, enough ventilators, enough testing kits. It’s all been reported for weeks.

 

[Grinner]

Am I right in thinking that as yet there is not a single reported case of anybody who has recovered from the virus becoming reinfected anywhere in the world?

@Arruda

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Am I right in thinking that as yet there is not a single reported case of anybody who has recovered from the virus becoming reinfected anywhere in the world?

@Arruda

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...y-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17

 

[massi83]

Random sampling finished on 3rd April mate. Last 2 weeks finished on 10th or 9th April.

That makes the weighted average difference of 3 days not 8 days.

 

[fergieisold]

UK's 8,600+ new cases seems a bit of a mad jump.

Is this because of increased testing? Anybody know?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Am I right in thinking that as yet there is not a single reported case of anybody who has recovered from the virus becoming reinfected anywhere in the world?

@Arruda

There have been several cases of people testing positive after testing negative. Jury’s out on whether they were reinfected. Could be that infection never cleared and negative test was false.

 

[worldgonemad]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52252470

I think it’s disgraceful that Matt Hancunt was allowed to so obviously deflect onto PL footballers and everyone fell for it hook line and sinker.

When will the UK media start to hold the government properly to account? We make up around 10% of global deaths ffs.

He was directly asked his own opinion about footballers. Maybe it would be better to be slating the journo for asking such an inflammatory question? As ive pointed out before, some of those questions are inane. The press haveva responsibility through this crisis to offer accurate information in a way that does not panic people ( for example, i believe a lot of panic buying was in part fuelled by poor reporting at the start.)

 

[Wibble]

Sweden and Indonesian might be the next bad news stories

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...y-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17

However the KCDC's director, Jeong Eun-kyeong, raised the possibility that the virus may have been “reactivated” in people, rather than the patients being re-infected.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients’ systems without being infectious or posing a risk of danger to the host or others.

“There are different interpretations and many variables,” said Jung Ki-suck, professor of pulmonary medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sweden and Indonesian might be the next bad news stories

Sweden again now? Why?

 

[Pexbo]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...y-hopes/ar-BB12rSb0?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17

Is this happening elsewhere or is the suggestion that this could have been an issue with SK's early testing methods?

 

[Grinner]

There have been several cases of people testing positive after testing negative. Jury’s out on whether they were reinfected. Could be that infection never cleared and negative test was false.

Right, that's what I thought. The data as yet is unreliable.

Surely if this becomes a reality then it's game over and we should just open everything up and let it run it's course?