SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Jippy]

Ok not played down as such but it just seems it isnt so shocking anymore. Which I guess is natural as it's a more common thing as we progress its jus sad. I'm literally scared today I cant see a way out of this without a vaccine.

I think that's human nature though. The death figure gets so large we can't really quantify it, so it just becomes a grim statistic.
I went to the supermarket for a first time in nearly two weeks yesterday and it makes you paranoid as hell that you've become infected.
Reckon we might need to go through several more weeks of this too.

 

[Pexbo]

Vaccine could be ready by September. Say they are 80% sure it will work.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...x?shareToken=5c44cb95d1a1017e3edf50902b993be0

80% of the time it works every time.

 

[sullydnl]

Vaccine could be ready by September. Say they are 80% sure it will work.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...x?shareToken=5c44cb95d1a1017e3edf50902b993be0

A few key points there:

1) She says she's 80% sure it will work. There's a lot of room for mistake in that 20%.

2) As she says, having it "ready" for September would depend on the government beginning mass production before it has actually proven to work. Which would be a questionable decision, to put it mildly.

3) I find it hard to imagine that a vaccine developed that quickly can have been tested and trialled to the usual standard. Which presumably increases the risk of potential negative health impact from the vaccine itself?

So I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[Wolverine]

61% approval rating for Boris? This country deserves to be mired in this shit for as long as possible. Their handling of this has been nothing less than shambolic and shameful.

I'm not surprised completely. Media has been largely non-confrontational with them in terms of challenging them on technical details of this crisis. Boris is liked by a lot of people already and the pandemic's had an effect of galvanising people's support for him and his party (think it happens quite often in most crises?). I don't think most people know about the reality of the situation in hospitals and how much of the death toll is directly attributable to government's mishandling of this crisis during the delay phase.

Sad thing is I think I think that percentage will remain static regardless of how many people die in this country and whatever their party does during and in the aftermath of this or whatever healthcare workers say this has been handled.

 

[Dumbstar]

A few key points there:

1) She says she's 80% sure it will work. There's a lot of room for mistake in that 20%.

2) As she says, having it "ready" for September would depend on the government beginning mass production before it has actually proven to work. Which would be a questionable decision, to put it mildly.

3) I find it hard to imagine that a vaccine developed that quickly can have been tested and trialled to the usual standard. Which presumably increases the risk of potential negative health impact from the vaccine itself?

So I wouldn't hold my breath.

Yeah there does seem to be brazen rather cautious optimism from the medical representative. But maybe she's holding some stuff back and the results are really good which she has shared with the government who, the penny pinchers that we know they are, are willing to back this horse.

There was mention in the article that flu vaccines still only have a 40/50% success rate after decades of study.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

A few key points there:

1) She says she's 80% sure it will work. There's a lot of room for mistake in that 20%.

2) As she says, having it "ready" for September would depend on the government beginning mass production before it has actually proven to work. Which would be a questionable decision, to put it mildly.

3) I find it hard to imagine that a vaccine developed that quickly can have been tested and trialled to the usual standard. Which presumably increases the risk of potential negative health impact from the vaccine itself?

So I wouldn't hold my breath.

Mass vaccinations in September would and should scare the shit out of us all much more than Covid-19.

That would be what? Mass production at the point where humans have been studied for a matter of weeks.

 

[sullydnl]

I wonder if there'll be any scope for a post-event inquiry into the UK government's handling of the situation? Or other countries government's for that matter?

In other words, will we actually see governments which made drastic errors being officially held to account? Or will it be down to the public to judge then through votes at the next GE, whenever that is?

 

[JPRouve]

Yeah there does seem to be brazen rather cautious optimism from the medical representative. But maybe she's holding some stuff back and the results are really good which she has shared with the government who, the penny pinchers that we know they are, are willing to back this horse.

There was mention in the article that flu vaccines still only have a 40/50% success rate after decades of study.

That's because we continuously have a handful of strains doing the round and they all evolve. That rate is actually good in that context.

 

[Adamsk7]

Vaccine could be ready by September. Say they are 80% sure it will work.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...x?shareToken=5c44cb95d1a1017e3edf50902b993be0

This is how the Zombie apocalypse happens....

 

[Pexbo]

I wonder if there'll be any scope for a post-event inquiry into the UK government's handling of the situation? Or other countries government's for that matter?

In other words, will we actually see governments which made drastic errors being officially held to account? Or will it be down to the public to judge then through votes at the next GE, whenever that is?

 

[Jippy]

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That is a good article. Be intriguing to see how the government would answer this one, if someone were to actually grow a pair and ask.

18. “Where is Priti Patel?” And, as a follow up, “Mr Raab, do you accept many of the people you thanked and praised as key workers yesterday — carers, cleaners, porters, supermarket staff and so on — are considered by your immigration plans to be unskilled, non-essential workers? In light of your new-found admiration for them, will Ms Patel, when she is found, be revising the policy?”

 

[Pexbo]

That is a good article. Be intriguing to see how the government would answer this one, if someone were to actually grow a pair and ask.

Journalist: "Mr Raab, I'd like to know your personal opinion on immigration workers".

Raab: "Well thank you and that's a very good question which I will pass over to Dr Whitty who is best placed to answer this"

 

[sullydnl]

Yeah there does seem to be brazen rather cautious optimism from the medical representative. But maybe she's holding some stuff back and the results are really good which she has shared with the government who, the penny pinchers that we know they are, are willing to back this horse.

There was mention in the article that flu vaccines still only have a 40/50% success rate after decades of study.

There has also never been a successful vaccine for a virus belonging to the coronavirus family before.

So for them to rapidly develop the first ever successful Coronavirus vaccine, have it be as effective as we need it to be in a way that some other vaccines aren't, somehow avoid it carrying any serious health risks despite the extremely limited testing and research and successfully mass produce it despite not actually knowing any of the previous qualifiers are actually the case when production starts.....

Think people are just looking for good news. Which is fine, just not something to depend on.

 

[JPRouve]

I wonder if there'll be any scope for a post-event inquiry into the UK government's handling of the situation? Or other countries government's for that matter?

In other words, will we actually see governments which made drastic errors being officially held to account? Or will it be down to the public to judge then through votes at the next GE, whenever that is?

The problem with that is that unless you have a very centralized organization, most of the issues are very localized and the decision makers that failed aren't at government level. While we can lambast governments because they are the figurehead, it's a bit worrying that many people that are directly responsible are given the opportunity to hide behind them.

Also how do we determine what is a drastic error from governments?

 

[Jippy]

Yeah there does seem to be brazen rather cautious optimism from the medical representative. But maybe she's holding some stuff back and the results are really good which she has shared with the government who, the penny pinchers that we know they are, are willing to back this horse.

There was mention in the article that flu vaccines still only have a 40/50% success rate after decades of study.

The Times has consistently been gung ho when it comes to potentially positive news throughout the crisis.
Their front page splash about every home getting thumb prick tests 'in days' last month was quickly airbrushed out of history.
They've consistently been predicting lockdown ending more quickly than expected too.

 

[sullydnl]

Oh dear, is it really that unlikely? It's not that long ago that we had an inquiry into a cervical cancer scandal in Ireland. I would have hoped that it would be relatively standard to have one into the government's handling of a public health emergency of this scale. Especially for a country like the UK if (as feared) it ends up being one of the worst impacted countries in Europe. But for other countries as well.

 

[Brwned]

61% approval rating for Boris? This country deserves to be mired in this shit for as long as possible. Their handling of this has been nothing less than shambolic and shameful.

It's a normal response to a crisis.

An increase in popularity for governing parties during times of crisis is nothing new. We have seen it happen on numerous previous occasions, for example we also recorded a bounce for Gordon Brown in the early days of the financial crash.

There are two theories as to what causes this phenomenon, sometimes called the “rally round the flag effect”. Firstly, in times of crisis the public believe that national unity is important, and the government and its leaders are the embodiment of that. Secondly, opposition parties and the media feel the need to stand by the government in hard times; therefore, they tend to see less criticism.

Most people just want to support the people in power in a time of crisis. There's enough problems already so they don't see the value in creating new ones. They don't really care who's in power. They just think it's helpful to be supportive and united. The time for criticism comes after.

 

[sullydnl]

The problem with that is that unless you have a very centralized organization, most of the issues are very localized and the decision makers that failed aren't at government level. While we can lambast governments because they are the figurehead, it's a bit worrying that many people that are directly responsible are given the opportunity to hide behind them.

Also how do we determine what is a drastic error from governments?

Hmm, this is a good point. I was thinking of it from an Irish perspective (which has one of the most centralised states in Europe) but for other countries it would be a lot more complex and would presumably take a long time.

Though surely there'll be some pressure on governments to at least be seen to put measures in place to prevent a crisis on this scale again? Which I would have thought would require instigating some sort of analysis, report, findings and recommendations from someone.

 

[Sweet Square]

I wonder if there'll be any scope for a post-event inquiry into the UK government's handling of the situation?

This is almost certain to happen.

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In other words, will we actually see governments which made drastic errors being officially held to account? Or will it be down to the public to judge then through votes at the next GE, whenever that is?

 

[Pexbo]

Oh dear, is it really that unlikely? It's not that long ago that we had an inquiry into a cervical cancer scandal in Ireland. I would have hoped that it would be relatively standard to have one into the government's handling of a public health emergency of this scale. Especially for a country like the UK if (as feared) it ends up being one of the worst impacted countries in Europe. But for other countries as well.

The media will have absolutely no appetite to call for it. Even if we end up with the worst record in the developed world, Boris and his team will be hailed for their incredible efforts in a circumstances that are unique to the UK.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

It's a normal response to a crisis.

Most people just want to support the people in power in a time of crisis. There's enough problems already so they don't see the value in creating new ones. They don't really care who's in power. They just think it's helpful to be supportive and united. The time for criticism comes after.

I think going forward that the economy will be the most important part of the fall out to most people. The vast vast majority of people won't be hospitalised from the virus and the number of people that have lost younger and healthier members of their families will be in a small number. Nearly everyone will be touched personally in some way by the economic fallout. I think a lot of people are also pleased with the government have handled the economic side of things so far with the 80% of wages and so on. At least that is the feedback I get on a purely anecdotal level.

 

[Hugh Jass]

80% of the time it works every time.

 

[Sweet Square]

The media will have absolutely no appetite to call for it. Even if we end up with the worst record in the developed world, Boris and his team will be hailed for their incredible efforts in a circumstances that are unique to the UK.

Chief Political Commentator for the Independent.

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[Pexbo]

Chief Political Commentator for the Independent.

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I wonder if Alexander Lebedev's name comes up at all in the Russia Inquiry that we will also never get to see.

 

[RedSky]

Chief Political Commentator for the Independent.

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Guess he got the envelope nice and early.

 

[sullydnl]

Chief Political Commentator for the Independent.

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Well, that answers my question. Christ.

 

[JPRouve]

Hmm, this is a good point. I was thinking of it from an Irish perspective (which has one of the most centralised states in Europe) but for other countries it would be a lot more complex and would presumably take a long time.

Though surely there'll be some pressure on governments to at least be seen to put measures in place to prevent a crisis on this scale again? Which I would have thought would require instigating some sort of analysis, report, findings and recommendations from someone.

Analysis are always interesting, so it should definitely be done but I don't really like the idea of starting anything with a predetermined outcome, in this case that someone is definitely punishable. I do believe that organizational theories will have to be rethunk and when it comes to medical equipements, gears and essential drugs we will have to follow the same logic that we have with energy where most developed countries have substantial reserves and can last several months without new supplies. But when it comes to the actual organization of people, it gets a lot more complicated, lockdowns have a massive impact on households finances and small businesses, each airport or care home director could follow very stringent health policies when there is an epidemy on an other continent but you just need one person that doesn't follow instructions to create a cluster and that person could be anyone, a resident, an employee or a traveller.

On a side note, I also believe that we should have a medical/paramedical service, it's a lot more useful than a military service and in case of pandemics, it would be very useful to be able to maybe double the staff in health services.

 

[horsechoker]

Well, that answers my question. Christ.

It's depressing to think that when this is said and done, those who made decisions which exacerbated the crisis won't face any repercussions.

 

[Adisa]

Chief Political Commentator for the Independent.

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Feck me. Tell that to my cousins who lost their dad while he was treating patients without proper PPE.

 

[Wibble]

Is it going to be a bad news story everywhere when they come out of lockdown?
Is permanent lockdown the only way out of this Wibs?

I think it is until we hopefully get a vaccine and/or treatment. Bizarre times.

 

[vodrake]

It's depressing to think that when this is said and done, those who made decisions which exacerbated the crisis won't face any repercussions.

Not only no repercussions, but we will be told that they actually did a fantastic job and we should be thankful to them that the death toll wasn't higher

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Well, that answers my question. Christ.

There will be an inquiry though. We have inquiries about everything. It will take ages and won’t give the CAF the answers it demands, of that I’m sure.

 

[Arruda]

I wonder if there'll be any scope for a post-event inquiry into the UK government's handling of the situation? Or other countries government's for that matter?

In other words, will we actually see governments which made drastic errors being officially held to account? Or will it be down to the public to judge then through votes at the next GE, whenever that is?

If I survive this crap I'm going to chase the responsible in my country (and region, first) until I'm dead or they pay for it. Many others are planning to do the same. We're just waiting for the virus to give us a break, as it would be counterproductive right now.

I think Portugal has done great, since this started here. But it should have never started here, not in this way, and the same can be said for any country in Europe.

Still, I'm seriously thinking about whistleblowing my region's problems to the national press in the next few days. I've only not done it because I feel it may cause collateral damage to people who have done mistakes (like anyone does) but are actually doing a good work, so I have to gauge very carefully how to approach this and have a serious conversation with the potential "victims" first. The reason I'm thinking of this is because I think the problems in my region are far too serious and pressure to change things now can still have positive impact. Unlike at the national level, on which I think the response has been ok, and there's plenty of time to attribute blame, here it's urgent that the people in charge are replaced. Regional press is bought, so my only option is the national one.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Analysis are always interesting, so it should definitely be done but I don't really like the idea of starting anything with a predetermined outcome, in this case that someone is definitely punishable. I do believe that organizational theories will have to be rethunk and when it comes to medical equipements, gears and essential drugs we will have to follow the same logic that we have with energy where most developed countries have substantial reserves and can last several months without new supplies. But when it comes to the actual organization of people, it gets a lot more complicated, lockdowns have a massive impact on households finances and small businesses, each airport or care home director could follow very stringent health policies when there is an epidemy on an other continent but you just need one person that doesn't follow instructions to create a cluster and that person could be anyone, a resident, an employee or a traveller.

On a side note, I also believe that we should have a medical/paramedical service, it's a lot more useful than a military service and in case of pandemics, it would be very useful to be able to maybe double the staff in health services.

(They may already be, I don't know) but I wonder if the medically trained members of the armed forces have been seconded into 'normal' medical service?

Can see no reason why not, at least a decent percentage of them. I know certain soldiers are involved in basic support (food distribution)

 

[stepic]

I think it is until we hopefully get a vaccine and/or treatment. Bizarre times.

there’s absolutely no way we’re all staying in permanent lockdown for another 12-18 months. It’s just not possible.

 

[Compton22]

Chief Political Commentator for the Independent.

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Doesn't a political commentator normally assign blame as part of their job?

 

[antsmithmk]

there’s absolutely no way we’re all staying in permanent lockdown for another 12-18 months. It’s just not possible.

We can't do another 12 weeks, never mind 12 months.

 

[Sarni]

there’s absolutely no way we’re all staying in permanent lockdown for another 12-18 months. It’s just not possible.

I’ll say it again, this is necessity not a choice. We don’t get to choose whether we want to live as before or not, we just cannot go back to previous life before there is vaccine or effective treatment. Full lockdown will be lifted but there will have to be serious restrictions for the next couple of years at least (even when there’s vaccine it will take months to distribute it to everyone). If we can have life as before in 2022 we will be incredibly lucky.

 

[JPRouve]

(They may already be, I don't know) but I wonder if the medically trained members of the armed forces have been seconded into 'normal' medical service?

Can see no reason why not, at least a decent percentage of them. I know certain soldiers are involved in basic support (food distribution)

In France it has been done but we are talking about small amount of people, 1400 people. If you want a significant amount of medically trained people it will have to come from the civilian population.

 

[Skills]

Chief Political Commentator for the Independent.

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Where were the 'lessons to be learnt' lot while we were watching the effects of the outbreak in Italy?