Well.. considering 2m out of 7500m+ have tested positive, the odds of the same person testing positive twice aren't that high.. a lot of the cases are probably asymptomatic.
Iceland median age 36.5, UK 40.5, Finland 42.5, Italy 45.5. Also just like Germany and S Korea, Iceland's numbers will probably rise. Having said that, obviously not everyone gets tested. But there is a real reason for Iceland's number in this moment, they are very young population.
The people who have tested positive are most likely to be in hotspots, which is how they contracted the disease initially, so you are not comparing against 7500m+. There are also lots of people who are stuck in hospitals/care homes and have recovered, and haven't got the virus again while it is still prevalent around them.
Do you have a link?There was a research paper from South Korea that looked at 300-400 recovered patients. The young adults in that group produced little to no antibodies, which suggests that immunity is rare for young people. This in return means that it could last until we have a vaccine
Saxony has already said schools are reopening next week for years 10 and 12 to allow them to prepare for their final exams.
Social distancing isn’t the same thing as the current lockdown. There are less intense versions we can implement, with varying degrees of keeping people apart. The lockdown can’t go on much longer, whatever happens. The economic cost is too high. But we’re heading into at least another year or two of social distancing IMO.
This doesn't mean that on AVERAGE it can be detected only for 5 days, like you claimed when I asked you. It means that mild cases are detected for 5 days, so average case is detected for a lot longer, just as I suspected.
I told him this also already couple of days ago, but apparently because Swedish hospitals are so amazing, it wasn't possible.
Which is very close to the % quoted in a Danish study looking at blood donors. They came up with 1.5%.
I'm not so sure. The pic doesn't look very convincing, but then I read this article:
https://www.tpr.org/post/another-mega-drive-planned-after-10000-people-line-san-antonio-food-bank
Dear god. The test took place 3 days after on weighted average. I told you so, you are giving missinformation here, as well as being annoying.
I agree with what you say, if we do the same thing. I think we'll have to at some point bite the bullet and allow it to transmit through the least at risk population quite quickly, as we won't be able to afford 5-10 periods of lockdown.
Apparently theres studies that suggest that people who display little symptoms have few antibodies when they recover which means there is no herd immunity after all.
I was accounting for the date of the testing - confirmed cases were about 100? Might be more than 100X based on that number. Puts the death rate close to the flu.
Believe it or not, the current UK policy is already intended to protect the most vulnerable. Yet we’re seeing thousands of people dying in care homes up and down the country. God help them if/when there’s a future cycle with even less of an effort made to minimise spread.
That’s another unknown. It’s actually much more likely that second and subsequent infections are less serious than the first. Although it’s not impossible that they get worse each time (which happens with Dengue fever).
oh that’s good then.
Its a horrible situation, but the only outcome in which loads of people don't die is if a vaccine is created. Bill Gates doesn't believe that will be for 18 months, and we can't afford to maintain the current situation for that long.
On the bright side, Liverpool will never win another league title. So there’s always that.
I have read a lot of fear mongering on the topic, but this one takes the cake. Humanity was not wiped out by the plague, it will not get wiped out by this.
While I’m on a doom and gloom spree, the 18 month vaccine timeline really needs to stop being mentioned. This is the absolute best case scenario. Where nothing that can go wrong during development does go wrong. Every assumption is correct. Every decision made by the developers is the right one.
The “no vacccine if” is moderate to small, I’d say. The “worse with each infection if”, is very big, agreed. Thank feck! It’s definitely a possibility though.
Pogue, isn’t there a chance that because SO many people are working on this that it could be quicker than any other?
I am not saying that the possibility of the two ifs combined is zero (it is very small though), but even then humanity would not be wiped out. The civilization would become completely dysfunctional and the population decimated, but it would not be completely wiped out.
I agree! That's why I'm saying we need to come up with a strategy very soon to allow this to pass through more of the population, with young people and women at the forefront.
Also, what about what the Oxford lady is saying?
Where did you get those numbers from?
If it happens, amazing, but we just can't plan on it. September seems crazy unrealistic, and vaccinologists have no expertise in actually manufacturing things on large scale. Even if they had a safe vaccine that works now, distributing this year would be difficult.
So you are saying this could be really bad then.
Isn't that completely normal though after a disease has passed to have only trace antibodies?There was a research paper from South Korea that looked at 300-400 recovered patients. The young adults in that group produced little to no antibodies, which suggests that immunity is rare for young people. This in return means that it could last until we have a vaccine
Turns out that it was Shanghai and only 175 patients. The article cites where you can find the pre-study, but doesn't provide a direct link.
The 18 month timescale is quicker than any other. By an enormous margin. This would typically take between 8 and 10 years.
Median age of the whole population. Not tested, not cases, not deaths. The whole population. Didn't spend more than 5 secs on googling any of those, but seem quite right also intuitively. Happy to look at better data from someone else. But the point that Icelandic are young and Italians are Europe's oldest (at least top3) stands.
Cool. Thanks. Looks like they issued a press release before they published the data. Interesting but hopefully not too much of a worry. Would wait to see much larger/longer studies before making any kind of definitive opinion about immunity.
Law already exists in the UK.
Yes. Although you might include vulnerable groups like doctors and nurses in 3rd stage trials.
