SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Prometheus

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See: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/de-forsta-fem-dagarna-ar-virusnivaerna-hoga

You are utterly embarrassing yourself now.

important part:
När ett virus kan sprida sig vidare i till nya celler och orsaka mer infektion hos en person så har man sett att det också går att odla det i laboratoriet, säger Tegmark-Wisell.

“When a virus can spread onwards to new cell and create more infection in a person, so it has been shown the then you can also grow it in a laboratory”
There's nothing wrong with the quote. It makes sense.

However, this does not make sense:
And the virus only shows in lab results for around the first 5 days that you are bearing it
and was clearly made up by you.
 
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However, this does not make sense:

and was clearly made up by you.
So you’re arguing that the the virus does show up in lab results after 5 days in mild cases @Prometheus? If you say her quote makes sense in that it can’t be grown in the lab after 5 days in mild cases, how the feck are you expecting to get a positive test result after 5 days?
Tell me the science in your thinking there fella?

Have you not yet realized that the way to test for this virus is to duplicate the genetic material of the test in the lab?
If after five days you cannot duplicate the genetic material in the lab then obviously you do not find the virus in the lab after five days on a test result.

Or would you just argue against anything I say here?

There are studies that show that the first five days a person has high levels of the virus that can be transmitted onto new people. After five days those levels sink.

When a virus can spread on to new cells and cause more infection in a person that is when you can also grow it in the lab.
 
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Rajma

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They criticized the US for banning flights to China (how on Earth this comes from an organization that is supposed to be about the health).

Only three days before China locked Wuhan, WHO said that the virus is not transmitting human to human, which was laughable. Yeah, hundreds of people ate infected bats or something.

They didn't declare this a pandemic until the situation became manageable in China.

And then the disgraceful treatment for Taiwan, just check the interview with that Canadian vice-chair of WHO.

They are totally corrupted and the entire top hierarchy needs to be fired. They would find a good job in China anyway, so it is all fine for them.

------

Now, don't get me wrong, President Twat is doing this mostly to shift the blame for himself. And while he was right on banning the flights to China et al., he did feck all in between to prepare for the inevitable pandemic. So, in some level, I agree that the discussion is a bit academical, probably nothing would have changed if WHO acted faster and weren't essentially doing a PR job for China. But at the same time, it needs to be the World Health Organisation, not a propaganda machine for one of the superpowers. China is very good at hiding information, no need for the other countries to pay money to some organization that then does that for China.
Completely agree with everything you said here. As much as I hate Trump, you can’t call yourself fit for the purpose if you decide to cover up, possibly, the biggest pandemic of our lifetimes. Corrupt to the core these feckers.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Well they would be the ”unless very sick” group wouldn’t they?

again...


It is difficult to spread the virus after the first five days of illness, as long as you are not really sick.

"When you have a mild infection, you see that the levels of culturable virus fall sharply after five days, after which it is difficult in studies to show that the virus particles can spread further," says Karin Tegmark Wisell, head of the department of microbiology at the Public Health Authority.
Karin Tegmark Wisell.

"When you have a mild infection, you see that the levels of culturable virus fall sharply after five days, after which it is difficult in studies to show that the virus particles can spread further”
You don’t need to be shedding “culturable virus” (i.e. intact, viable viruses) to have a positive PCR test, which identifies RNA fragments from the virus. All the available evidence shows that people who get infected will have a positive test long after the first 5 days. Even in mild cases.

You also need put your pregnant women prevalence in context. They have all been in and out of hospitals, in close proximity to HCWs and other patients. Also likely to have spend more than the average amount of time in GP waiting rooms. So you would expect them to be a hell of a lot more likely to get infected than the general population.
 

Suedesi

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I think we have a way to go yet. It may be that we can start a gradual roll-back but I can't see things being anywhere near normal for a long time yet. It will probably take a vaccine and a working anti-viral treatment to return to full normality.
I don’t think we’re going back to normal anytime soon, no doubt about it. Mass gatherings are gone for the foreseeable future... concerts, sporting events, expos, crowded bars gone.

Two people eating out at a restaurant could work, provided social distancing norms are respected.
 

redshaw

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Taiwan decided China was lying and did something about it. WHO did a very poor job but they seem to just repeat what they've been told, we shouldn't have been looking at them as some oracle on what's going on in China. We should've done the same as Taiwan looking back although personally speaking I've not had to concern myself with any of the outbreaks in 40 years. We could've got ready for the last 20 by shutting down flights and setting up quarantine areas for those coming in and never seen anything. This virus is particularly contagious and becomes lethal, Europe has been like a tinderbox for it. Countries didn't want to impact themselves in the short term and now we have long term problems.

As Asia, Africa and South America expand this will happen more so hopefully we can act properly and have equipment on standby and labs ready to shift, it's a huge first lesson.
 
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You don’t need to be shedding “culturable virus” (i.e. intact, viable viruses) to have a positive PCR test, which identifies RNA fragments from the virus. All the available evidence shows that people who get infected will have a positive test long after the first 5 days. Even in mild cases.
I’m only passing on what was said here, not my own personal view as I have no expertise whatsoever as we all know full well.

Is the gold standard for testing not duplicating genetic material in the lab as claimed in SK @Pogue Mahone ? Isn’t that what a PCR is? So you’re saying she has this wrong?

Source for evidence of mild cases testing positive after 5 days?

As for pregnant women, the test finished approx one week after the random 2.5% result so they were expecting a result between 5-10% due to exponential growth so it was in line with that.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I don’t think we’re going back to normal anytime soon, no doubt about it. Mass gatherings are gone for the foreseeable future... concerts, sporting events, expos, crowded bars gone.

Two people eating out at a restaurant could work, provided social distancing norms are respected.
I don’t think that would work for restaurants though. Profit margins far too tight to keep operating at 50% of their usual max occupancy.
 

Striker10

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I know this is not your intention but feck the poor and feck those who will be is what this translates to. Clearly businesses have to be allowed to re-open gradually. And soon.
They will blame paper money for the spread but we should discuss the debt. Since we're all in this together, why don't they just wipe off the dept? Why is no one calling for this? Why, after a Pandemic should the WORLD suffer more? This shows the problem not with cash but with the current monetary system which has to much power over reason. A globsal reset of debt would have a big impact on the landscape but that won't happen. We've seen companies throw away good food that should have went to the poor. It's crazy what's gone on but people don't fight for things that actually matter. It just seems to me people are on some hamster wheel and don't know how to get off. The debt/interest is based on nothing worth anything. When you realize it, then closing borders QUICKLY stops pandemics and we can come up with solutions that serve us rather then work against us. What needs to change is peoples attitudes about the current system, which is unsustainable and leads to idiocy. Who could theoretically wipe out all debt? And why is it not an option? Why are we in handcuffs here, what is the root of the issue?This is the discussion people should be having tbh.
 

Prometheus

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So you’re arguing that the the virus does show up in lab results after 5 days in mild cases @Prometheus?
You tried to pass off multiple different statements that have very little to do with it as the source. And now you're trying to say you arrived at the claim by extrapolating from what the medical professional said with your knowledge of biology (which is clearly lacking btw). It's not the first time you posted dubious claims which you then attributed to the Swedish "ministry of health" either.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I’m only passing on what was said here, not my own personal view as I have no expertise whatsoever as we all know full well.

Is the gold standard for testing not duplicating genetic material in the lab as claimed in SK @Pogue Mahone ?

Source for evidence of mild cases testing positive after 5 days?

As for pregnant women, the test finished approx one week after the random 2.5% result so they were expecting a result between 5-10% due to exponential growth so it was in line with that.

No.

Google “SARS-CoV2 PCR test” if you want to know how testing works. It doesn’t involve culturing live virus, which is more complex to do and only relevant if you want to know if someone is actively contagious. It’s useful for research on infectivity but not used for trying to find out if someone has been infected or not.
 
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Grinner

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That is idiotic because the death numbers we are using are actual daily numbers, it is irrelevant if someone may or may not die of something else later in the year. I can also bet that virus caused deaths for this whole year will be way higher than normal and that is with the measures we have in place that will also incidentally reduce flu deaths. By that logic you might as well get rid of medicine, food production regualtion and hygiene regulations because, hey, we are all going to die sometime. feckit.

Ask anyone if they want an extra hour let alone days, weeks or months and I think they'd pretty much say 'hell yes'.

Stupid fecking argument.
 

11101

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All of the trials I have seen haven't been a UBI. Usually only given to welfare recipients so not a UBI at all.

Even so the results over the years have often shown promise with little or no disincentive to work, improved mental health and generally the money hasn't been used to buy drugs or other things people worry about. And people forget that it doesn't matter if some choose to live in poverty on just the UBI as that is the whole point (or at least one of them), as we don't and probably never will have full employment at the current 40+hrs a week. UBI would potentially save a huge amount on administering social and pension payments, allow people to try to start small businesses and the like without having to pointlessly job hunt, and many other benefits. The hard bit probably isn't having a UBI, it is how you transition to one imo. And with the kneejerk state of politics these days the first bump in the road and we would be back to punishing people for poverty and blaming those slightly less well off than ourselves for not being wealthy - again without blaming who is really at fault (who we keep on voting for inexplicably).
I wouldn't call early cancellation 'showing promise', which is what happened to the two biggest experiments so far. Mental health and wellbeing was improved but there was no economic benefit seen and the costs were huge.

UBI will be viable when low income jobs are all automated and vast numbers of the population are forced out of the workforce. Until then, it will only ever be a pipedream.
 

Igor Drefljak

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The Piers interview this morning was a bit interesting.
At first I thought he was being a bit of a bellend not letting the person speak.

But by the end of it, he asked a simple, if a vote came to raise the 1% cap to health workers, would you vote for or against it, and she clearly did not want to answer it, even though it's quite a simple yes or no answer
 
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You tried to pass off multiple different statements that have very little to do with it as the source. And now you're trying to say you arrived at the claim by extrapolating from what the medical professional said with your knowledge of biology (which is clearly lacking btw). It's not the first time you posted dubious claims which you then attributed to the Swedish "ministry of health" either.
No I’m following exactly what they said in the press conference to explain why that test result of 2.5% was quite important to them as according to them you are only bearing the virus for positive test purposes for five days. You can watch both of the press conference it in full to understand that it’s not me just making up some BS.

It might well be dubious BS for what it’s worth, I’m not trying to say it’s anything, just passing on their info when Raven was talking about it earlier.
 

Suedesi

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They criticized the US for banning flights to China (how on Earth this comes from an organization that is supposed to be about the health).

Only three days before China locked Wuhan, WHO said that the virus is not transmitting human to human, which was laughable. Yeah, hundreds of people ate infected bats or something.

They didn't declare this a pandemic until the situation became manageable in China.

And then the disgraceful treatment for Taiwan, just check the interview with that Canadian vice-chair of WHO.

They are totally corrupted and the entire top hierarchy needs to be fired. They would find a good job in China anyway, so it is all fine for them.

------

Now, don't get me wrong, President Twat is doing this mostly to shift the blame for himself. And while he was right on banning the flights to China et al., he did feck all in between to prepare for the inevitable pandemic. So, in some level, I agree that the discussion is a bit academical, probably nothing would have changed if WHO acted faster and weren't essentially doing a PR job for China. But at the same time, it needs to be the World Health Organisation, not a propaganda machine for one of the superpowers. China is very good at hiding information, no need for the other countries to pay money to some organization that then does that for China.
 

OleBoiii

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So a researcher from Harvard wrote that social distancing may not only last for the rest of the year, but for the whole of 2021 as well. The main problem is the lack of immunity after getting the virus.
 

OleBoiii

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I’d call it a potential problem. A huge problem, if true, but nobody knows yet.
There was a research paper from South Korea that looked at 300-400 recovered patients. The young adults in that group produced little to no antibodies, which suggests that immunity is rare for young people. This in return means that it could last until we have a vaccine :(
 

Smores

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So a researcher from Harvard wrote that social distancing may not only last for the rest of the year, but for the whole of 2021 as well. The main problem is the lack of immunity after getting the virus.
Some measure of social distancing in on and off periods until a vaccine is widely available seems to me the take away from the 'study'. Nothing we didn't already surmise in here.

There seems to be a dramatic drop in what qualifies as news worthy 'science' these days.
 

do.ob

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So a researcher from Harvard wrote that social distancing may not only last for the rest of the year, but for the whole of 2021 as well. The main problem is the lack of immunity after getting the virus.
I don't see that happening. Here there is loose talk about reopening schools with the end of what would have been easter holidays. NRW, the most populated state, seems particularly eager to kick things off again. And this is Germany, I don't think Trump will hesitate for a second if other countries do it.
 

OleBoiii

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I don't see that happening. Here there is loose talk about reopening schools with the end of what would have been easter holidays. NRW, the most populated state, seems particularly eager to kick things off again. And this is Germany, I don't think Trump will hesitate for a second if other countries do it.
I think the researcher meant social distancing in some form. Things will ease up, but sporting events and concerts will still be cancelled. People who can work from home will probably keep doing so.
 

Wibble

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So a researcher from Harvard wrote that social distancing may not only last for the rest of the year, but for the whole of 2021 as well. The main problem is the lack of immunity after getting the virus.
Except we currently have no real evidence that there is a lack of immunity or people getting it a second time.

Not that immunity is a given, but at least partial immunity is likely, at least until a vacine potentially speeds up the mutation of the virus that doesn't currently seem to be evolving very quickly.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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I don't see that happening. Here there is loose talk about reopening schools with the end of what would have been easter holidays. NRW, the most populated state, seems particularly eager to kick things off again. And this is Germany, I don't think Trump will hesitate for a second if other countries do it.
Neither do I.

There's now a handful of European countries on the road to releasing lockdown in some shape or form, and more will follow. If there's a second wave, which is probably likely towards Autumn/Winter, there'll be another period of lockdown. Bottom line is even if a vaccine ever transpires, not EVERYONE will be entitled to get it anyway. It'll be prioritised for those considered to be seriously at risk - or at least, that's how I see it going down.

So young and relatively fit people will still be required to get on with their everyday lives as much as possible. We are not going to see an 18month worldwide quarantine or dystopian perverse fantasy that some people seem desperate to see happen.

And yeah, once other countries are working to some kind of normality (with some restrictions still, of course), you can bet Trump and Boris will want to join the party ASAP.
 

Rooney1987

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I think the researcher meant social distancing in some form. Things will ease up, but sporting events and concerts will still be cancelled. People who can work from home will probably keep doing so.
I definitely think I think 10k plus large concerts, top level sports and festivals will be on hold till late 2021. I think pubs, theatres, cinemas, theme parks, gyms, museums and restaurants might be a challenge to wait till late 2021.
 

Pexbo

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There was a research paper from South Korea that looked at 300-400 recovered patients. The young adults in that group produced little to no antibodies, which suggests that immunity is rare for young people. This in return means that it could last until we have a vaccine :(
Happy for someone to correct my uneducated musings here but if patients that have had the virus are not producing antibodies, firstly how exactly did they recover from it and secondly how can we expect to produce a vaccine if people aren't even producing antibodies when exposed to the actual virus?
 

Nytram Shakes

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While I only condemn Trump cutting funding to WHO, certainly when they have a role to play in the world wide fight against Covid-19. Trump will not be the only world leader who cuts funding to charitable style organisations. Governments are going to be by necessity utterly desperate to save money everywhere they can and cutting funding to organisations that don't just benefit there population are going to be one of the first things to go.
 

Fiskey

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Happy for someone to correct my uneducated musings here but if patients that have had the virus are not producing antibodies, firstly how exactly did they recover from it and secondly how can we expect to produce a vaccine if people aren't even producing antibodies when exposed to the actual virus?
Exactly, there is some immunity for people who have had it, the question is the degree. There would be many more cases of people catching it twice were this not the case.
 

Wumminator

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To me looking at different news reports what becomes quite evident (to me) is that testing for this is fecking impossible. Nothing seems to be accurate at all.
 

Abizzz

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While I only condemn Trump cutting funding to WHO, certainly when they have a role to play in the world wide fight against Covid-19. Trump will not be the only world leader who cuts funding to charitable style organisations. Governments are going to be by necessity utterly desperate to save money everywhere they can and cutting funding to organisations that don't just benefit there population are going to be one of the first things to go.
WHO's advice has been a lot more useful to Americans than the federal government's advice in the past 4 months. The WHO benefits US citizen's, and that had been the bipartisan consensus for decades.


This is him trying to deflect blame by laying it at the feet of those more competent and capable than him.
 

Smores

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To me looking at different news reports what becomes quite evident (to me) is that testing for this is fecking impossible. Nothing seems to be accurate at all.
I've got a friend who is an ICU nurse, took 2 weeks before she got tested and given results and then the result was inconclusive (both a positive and a negative) so she has to wait another week to be tested again.

You wonder how many are off longer than necessary due to poor tests.
 

Volumiza

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To me looking at different news reports what becomes quite evident (to me) is that testing for this is fecking impossible. Nothing seems to be accurate at all.
On top of that there is very little guidance on testing for some of the labs that have offered to do it.

My company are meant to start testing as of next Monday. We have a PCR machine and an experienced operator. I was talking to her yesterday and there has been little guidance on receiving or disposing of the samples.

We‘re having to cobble together new working practices to ensure a portion of the building in sectioned off and no crossover of staff happens. She says the virus is ‘deactivated’ and shouldn’t be a problem but a lot of us aren’t so confident, there seems to be no risk assessments available.
 

prateik

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https://figshare.com/articles/Serol...antibodies_collected_in_March_2020/12116778/2

fits with the 100X plus undetected cases. 0.6% of blood donors had antibodies in Scotland...this virus was obviously circulating for some time before cases grew enough to cause the noticeable fraction of severe cases?
0.60% of the Scottish population (5.5m) is about 33k. Scotland have about 6500 positive cases .

Not sure about the 100x math there..
5-10 times more .. about 1% infected.. likely.
 

Wumminator

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I've got a friend who is an ICU nurse, took 2 weeks before she got tested and given results and then the result was inconclusive (both a positive and a negative) so she has to wait another week to be tested again.

You wonder how many are off longer than necessary due to poor tests.
My wife's best friend is a nurse. She currently lives with another nurse in Wythenshawe and work at Wythenshawe hospital.

The roommate had a temperature and a cough.So they both had to isolate. The NHS sent them to get tested the next day.

A week later neither of the nurses had received results. The first nurse had no symptoms so went back to work.My wife's friend has just returned after two weeks isolation. They had something back after ten days saying the initial results were negative but they needed further testing (?).

Pretty crazy really.