SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Organic Potatoes]

I can't believe that counties like the UK and US, who are suffering so much for late and/or inadequate restrictions, are talking about relaxing them.

Australia has reduced their daily infection rate from 20% to 2% (only 58 deaths with under 40 ICU beds being used at any one time) and the government are still saying lock down will probably have to last at least another 6 months.

I’m not sure what ‘opening up the economy’ even means, because the US government isn’t really directing this response. It has mostly been at state level: several states still don’t have shelter-in-place orders last I checked, whilst others have orders that almost certainly won’t be lifted at the end of the month.

It’s almost like there’s a lack of quality leadership. Almost...

 

[ryansgirl]

No 10 must have watched the movie Wag the dog. I am starting to wonder if Boris was even positive. Maybe have had the case of bad food poisoning --- and his media folks probably thought, lets make it topical and say he was on the frontline fighting, on the beaches of Covid.

Given how many people he was in contact with for months before falling ill and even when it would have been prudent not to be out and about so much but he wanted to reassure the public etc, I'm not surprised at all he was given a diagnosis of COVID-19. Be in that much contact with strangers as well as acquaintances and everybody else and it's just a matter of time.

I must admit to being tired of the hysteria coming from some media quarters and not just social media.

Reputable papers like The Guardian - although they can be as hypocritical and selectively outraged plus smug in their political correctness when it suits them - have great information but also run articles asserting there will be 'New World Order' and how our lives will never be the same again, etc. There is no need for that and it is definitely propaganda.

The way out of this economic crisis is debt-financed spending and as democratic govts never have a problem with doing that including giving massive bail-outs under the Obama Govt, I can't see why some sections of the media are getting hyped up in the way they are.This is not post WW1 or WW2. Be suspicious when the propaganda is coming from the left as well as from the right.

 

[Steven Seagull]

They’re just playing along and leading on their citizens. You can’t tell me their scientists don’t know how it’s going to go, it’s not like UK advisors are stupider than those from everywhere else.

For the UK particularly, if they were actually honest about how long it’s going to take, they’d face revolt and civil unrest within a week. You can even see it on this board occasionally. Too many people are pissed off about being stuck inside while the sun’s out and think “lockdown” is just a button to flick on and off, and when “lockdown is over” (whatever the feck that means) they’re off to Ibiza with mates.

It’s going to be a slow-burner of a reveal and the idiots will only realise it when there’s still nowhere to party in the middle of June.

A lot of people need to get back to work soon. Not everybody in the uk is a 23 year old kid heading off to Ibiza

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I can't believe that counties like the UK and US, who are suffering so much for late and/or inadequate restrictions, are talking about relaxing them.

Australia has reduced their daily infection rate from 20% to 2% (only 58 deaths with under 40 ICU beds being used at any one time) and the government are still saying lock down will probably have to last at least another 6 months.

100% that Australia will not be fully locked down for 6 months. If they mean social distancing then sure, that’s been touted as last 18 months in the UK but a 6 month full lockdown would destroy the economy.

 

[massi83]

I’ve been in Phuket since last 4 weeks. Albeit I’m not in a massive tourist area, but here barely anybody is talking about it, and there is also plenty of tourist traffic on the island (although zero Chinese due to their travel ban).

Given Thailand is supposed to be close to epicentre of this virus, there should be panic here but literally nobody cares.

Can’t help but think this has been so blown out of proportion and that there are other factors at play as to why it is being reported as a global danger.

Am still in Phuket. Not a big deal here at all! Really don't understand the Western hysteria over this.

Anyway, there was a rumour swirling around the hotel I'm staying at that UK Government is considering stopping all international flights in and out of UK for an indefinite period, and that Cabinet was meeting today to decide. I've searched on google and cant find any credible sources stating this.

Anyone in UK know if this is true?

All data from SARS, MERS etc was available to all countries for many years. Governments across NE & SE Asia had previous strategic plans and resources in place. I was in Thailand during their initial phase. They knew exactly what to do and when to do it, and with the right level of urgency or severity. They certainly didn't 'wing it' at all. Countries like New Zealand chose to follow that lead.

covid19 doesn't care about human timetables, it gets on with its business on its own timetable. It's up to our elected Governments to react in a timely fashion to protect their citizens.

Lastly, there has been loads of official and anecdotal information about covid19 since mid January. And for a country who could build a 1500 bed capacity hospital in 9 days, 6 weeks is an eternity. UK Government chose to assume it wouldn't blow this way, which is proving to be a tragically arrogant miscalculation.

Not sure what is revisionist or non sensical of any of the above.

Seems like you are the one being revisionist about it all. But I hope to read soon for the 12th time about your anecdotal flu in December also, and how it is possible that 50% in UK already had it

Thailand have done some things well, it also starts to seem quite likely that hot and humid weather lessens the spread. Doesn't erase it, but lessens.

 

[Penna]

Thanks for what exactly?

I think they've made a mistake, the cufflinks should be sent by Boris to the consultant who's been in charge of his care. In any case, I think Boris can afford his own stuff.

 

[Wibble]

100% that Australia will not be fully locked down for 6 months. If they mean social distancing then sure, that’s been touted as last 18 months in the UK but a 6 month full lockdown would destroy the economy.

I'm sure they are hoping current levels of restriction won't be neccesary but we are considering the possibility. Victoria has extended the current arrangements for another month already. And remenber this is the neccesary response when we only have a few thousand infections, 58 deaths and only 35ish in ICU. Countries like the UK and US, who are in deep trouble and farcfrom under control, talking about relaxing things is madness.

 

[NYAS]

A lot of people need to get back to work soon. Not everybody in the uk is a 23 year old kid heading off to Ibiza

I didn’t say everybody was.

 

[Dante]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

This is spot on.

The virus will spread to 60-80% of the population, no matter what we do.

Covid-19 is a highly infectious global pandemic. So even if we somehow manage to eradicate it from the UK, it's going to eventually come back from abroad just like it did the first time.

Indefinite lockdowns also aren't possible. We're only going to be able to shut down economic activity for so long. After a certain point, the country will no longer able to afford the basics such as paying for the NHS. Not to mention that huge swathes of population would end up jobless and penniless if the furlough scheme ends up consuming all its funds.

The best we can do is try and keep the peak of the disease below NHS capacity, whilst keeping the economic gears turning as much as possible. The final analysis of this will only come in 18 months time once herd immunity is actually achieved. You can't simply look at statistics within a narrow window and proclaim one strategy a success and another a failure. Even China and Singapore are seeing resurgences in cases.

 

[Dante]

I'm sure they are hoping current levels of restriction won't be neccesary but we are considering the possibility. Victoria has extended the current arrangements for another month already. And remenber this is the neccesary response when we only have a few thousand infections, 58 deaths and only 35ish in ICU. Countries like the UK and US, who are in deep trouble and farcfrom under control, talking about relaxing things is madness.

If you don't talk about the light at the end of the tunnel, people will give up.

 

[Brwned]

I'm sure they are hoping current levels of restriction won't be neccesary but we are considering the possibility. Victoria has extended the current arrangements for another month already. And remenber this is the neccesary response when we only have a few thousand infections, 58 deaths and only 35ish in ICU. Countries like the UK and US, who are in deep trouble and farcfrom under control, talking about relaxing things is madness.

Australia are in a comparable position to Austria, Czechia, Denmark and Norway, all of whom will be relaxing restrictions this month. Surely you can't believe the governments of each of these countries are crazy, given they were among the best in the Western world at controlling the spread of the virus?

 

[cyberman]

I can't believe that counties like the UK and US, who are suffering so much for late and/or inadequate restrictions, are talking about relaxing them.

Australia has reduced their daily infection rate from 20% to 2% (only 58 deaths with under 40 ICU beds being used at any one time) and the government are still saying lock down will probably have to last at least another 6 months.

Economies are fecked anyway. Theres no saving them with this blight about.
If immunity lasts as long as it does with the other 2 most common forms of Corona, which is about 8 months, then closing everything down is the only option.
Everything else is just lip service.

 

[11101]

I can't believe that counties like the UK and US, who are suffering so much for late and/or inadequate restrictions, are talking about relaxing them.

Australia has reduced their daily infection rate from 20% to 2% (only 58 deaths with under 40 ICU beds being used at any one time) and the government are still saying lock down will probably have to last at least another 6 months.

Lockdowns were based on a lack of understanding. The virus appeared out of nowhere and spread rapidly threatening to overwhelm healthcare. Shutting everything down was the only response.

As we learn more about it and how it spreads, we can relax rules. If we know it doesnt spread in open spaces, for example, why do we need to close parks?

 

[cyberman]

Lockdowns were based on a lack of understanding. The virus appeared out of nowhere and spread rapidly threatening to overwhelm healthcare. Shutting everything down was the only response.

As we learn more about it and how it spreads, we can relax rules. If we know it doesnt spread in open spaces, for example, why do we need to close parks?

Because it becomes less open when everybody flocks to it?
Up here in Donegal, Ireland we have lovely beaches and wide open spaces. Only thing is it becomes chock a block when Derry folk flock over during the good weather or holidays. With everybody off work that could be everyday during the summer.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Schools are reopening for graduating classes in the German state of Saxony next week and final exams will be held as normal. Other years will follow "as soon as possible".

 

[Pexbo]

Schools are reopening for graduating classes in the German state of Saxony next week and final exams will be held as normal. Other years will follow "as soon as possible".

MegaDude and Ronaldo’s Mother: PREMIER LEAGUE MUST BE RESTARTING NEXT WEEKEND!

 

[massi83]

This is spot on.

The virus will spread to 60-80% of the population, no matter what we do.

Covid-19 is a highly infectious global pandemic. So even if we somehow manage to eradicate it from the UK, it's going to eventually come back from abroad just like it did the first time.

Indefinite lockdowns also aren't possible. We're only going to be able to shut down economic activity for so long. After a certain point, the country will no longer able to afford the basics such as paying for the NHS. Not to mention that huge swathes of population would end up jobless and penniless if the furlough scheme ends up consuming all its funds.

The best we can do is try and keep the peak of the disease below NHS capacity, whilst keeping the economic gears turning as much as possible. The final analysis of this will only come in 18 months time once herd immunity is actually achieved. You can't simply look at statistics within a narrow window and proclaim one strategy a success and another a failure. Even China and Singapore are seeing resurgences in cases.

It isn't spot on. Required level for herd immunity is calculated like this: (R0-1)/R0, so if R0 is 3 then 67% infected is needed. But if we can bring R0 down to 1.5, only 33% infected is needed.

We can achieve that with masks (once enough is produced), banning mass gatherings and hand washing, increased testing and contact tracing and other similar activities. And still keep schools, restaurants and bars open and save millions of lives.

 

[Balljy]

Economies are fecked anyway. Theres no saving them with this blight about.
If immunity lasts as long as it does with the other 2 most common forms of Corona, which is about 8 months, then closing everything down is the only option.
Everything else is just lip service.

Luckily it seems like mutations are slow with COVID-19 which should make immunity last.

There's a fantastic website tracking the current strains of all diseases including this one based on analysis as it comes in from hospitals.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

https://www.fastcompany.com/9048389...ins-of-coronavirus-spreading-across-the-world

 

[Balljy]

Website tracking the current stains of COVID-19 around the world from hospital / lab analysis

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

 

[ryansgirl]

I think someone is throwing Australia a bone after the wildfires. I hope anyway, don't want my dad to get sick. Or kangaroos because they're awesome.

The federal government learned some lessons after the bushfires debacle especially the PM. Get experts together, give them a real hearing and follow the best advice regardless of clamouring groups within a diverse society.

I forget when but Australia banned Chinese nationals with no legal right to live in Australia earlier than most countries. Despite screams of racism, Chinese people with the right to live in Australia could return - dual citizens, permanent residents, international students.

There was a clampdown on Chinese visitors and border security was instructed to deal with the inevitable anger of Chinese people with the right to live in Australia who were trying to bring in family and relatives with no right whatsoever. Some got on planes from China bringing those family and relatives and they were instructed no go, such people would be turned back.

Visitors from everywhere were told at a fairly early time in March that they would have to self-isolate for 14 days if they came to Australia. Of course tourists like the Japanese don't take much vacation time and cue much outrage here because many of them had planned to only come for a week or so just like some other countries' visitors.

Stiff cheddar. It discouraged visitors and of course the virus that some of them would bring unknown to themselves. Then visitors were banned altogether. If you look at South Australia where visitors at wineries infected residents, for one example, it was a great call to do so.

However, the universities and colleges with international students encouraged them to get around quarantine rules and other rules about when to re-enter Australia that were designed to keep out the virus as much as possible. Significant cases came from them while the second wave came from dual citizens and citizens returning from abroad. That cruise ship being allowed to disembark cost lives.

Testing was pursued aggressively through pop up shops, drive-through arrangements etc. South Australia re-opened a hospital that had been shut down but still was functional, SA, the Northern Territory and West Australia were the earliest states to close their borders to other Australian states' residents - a successful lock-out that prevented cases being brought from Sydney and Melbourne viral hotspots although residents of the states were allowed to return home.

The traditional Indigenous owners of different land areas were encouraged to lock-out everybody except their own and those delivering vital supplies - a great move that has prevented the virus' spread there. Australia is very fortunate in its land mass and the fact that you can close borders. That is impossible in the UK and Japan for starters. You couldn't lock down each county in the UK and you couldn't lock down each prefecture in Japan - millions commute from adjacent prefectures to their jobs and activities in Tokyo.

However, now since a state of emergency has been declared, more and more companies have ordered remote work, people are not hanging out in the entertainment areas like Shibuya, the numbers of company men haunting the sex districts around the major train stations in Tokyo and elsewhere has fallen, and prefectural governors are telling their populations not to travel outside the home prefecture.

However, testing is still minimal in Japan. The authorities are gambling on people staying home without a legal lock-down to stop the spread. True, most of us are staying home now and working from home. However, the strategy is herd immunity although the government won't admit it and let's see how well that works out.

 

[TheGame]

The state of the Tories here, attacking Keir Starmer after he raised concern about PPE:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[sullydnl]

On what planet is that attacking NHS England.

 

[Grinner]

Is one journo doesn't ask whomever is running the brief later today about whether the Patel 'I'm sorry you feel that way' non-apology is the official government response, I'll be very angry indeed and write a stern post in here later to convey that.

 

[TheGame]

It was an orchestrated attack by CCHQ, nearly 10k dead and they want to spend time doing this. Pathetic. Just twist the words for their followers.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Volumiza]

A lot of people need to get back to work soon.

At what cost?

Feck work and feck the economy. I’m no kid either but I would happily lose my job and everything I own to keep my family safe.

 

[balaks]

This is spot on.

The virus will spread to 60-80% of the population, no matter what we do.

Covid-19 is a highly infectious global pandemic. So even if we somehow manage to eradicate it from the UK, it's going to eventually come back from abroad just like it did the first time.

Indefinite lockdowns also aren't possible. We're only going to be able to shut down economic activity for so long. After a certain point, the country will no longer able to afford the basics such as paying for the NHS. Not to mention that huge swathes of population would end up jobless and penniless if the furlough scheme ends up consuming all its funds.

The best we can do is try and keep the peak of the disease below NHS capacity, whilst keeping the economic gears turning as much as possible. The final analysis of this will only come in 18 months time once herd immunity is actually achieved. You can't simply look at statistics within a narrow window and proclaim one strategy a success and another a failure. Even China and Singapore are seeing resurgences in cases.

How can you keep the peak below NHS capacity without total lockdown? You can't is the answer. There is no easy or quick way out if this.

 

[Adisa]

The Lucy Allan tweet is a mind feck.

 

[TheGame]

The Lucy Allan tweet is a mind feck.

Trumpian level of politics which we saw during the election and the mindless followers will believe it.

 

[dumbo]

Callous rancid Tory cnuts out in force. Even when there is a very possible chance that their leader and colleague/friend might well suffer as a result of a lack of PPE for frontline staff - not to mention the NHS staff themselves - they still have to protect the Tory political position at all cost.

 

[Wumminator]

We should not politically point score say politicians attacking the opposition leader in a coordinated scheme.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

At what cost?

Feck work and feck the economy.

I know this is not your intention but feck the poor and feck those who will be is what this translates to. Clearly businesses have to be allowed to re-open gradually. And soon.

 

[Wibble]

On what planet is that attacking NHS England.

Planet Tory. No intelligent life detected.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is spot on.

The virus will spread to 60-80% of the population, no matter what we do.

Covid-19 is a highly infectious global pandemic. So even if we somehow manage to eradicate it from the UK, it's going to eventually come back from abroad just like it did the first time.

Indefinite lockdowns also aren't possible. We're only going to be able to shut down economic activity for so long. After a certain point, the country will no longer able to afford the basics such as paying for the NHS. Not to mention that huge swathes of population would end up jobless and penniless if the furlough scheme ends up consuming all its funds.

The best we can do is try and keep the peak of the disease below NHS capacity, whilst keeping the economic gears turning as much as possible. The final analysis of this will only come in 18 months time once herd immunity is actually achieved. You can't simply look at statistics within a narrow window and proclaim one strategy a success and another a failure. Even China and Singapore are seeing resurgences in cases.

Of course this is a long-term problem. Equally, you can clearly seer that the Uk strategy in the opening weeks has been poor. Mixed messages galore in the opening weeks with huge gatherings of people taking place when the virus was already spreading like wildfire.

Now, the UK govt might look less inept in the longer term by being more decisive and communicating better than they have done so far. I genuinely hope this is what happens. It’s no reason to shut down criticism of their performance up until now.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

We should not politically point score say politicians attacking the opposition leader in a coordinated scheme.

Disgusting how these wankers are using US republican type tactics.
fecking arseholes.

 

[cyberman]

I know this is not your intention but feck the poor and feck those who will be is what this translates to. Clearly businesses have to be allowed to re-open gradually. And soon.

Poor people care about their and their loved ones health as well?
My problem with this is the over exaggeration of the publics desire to get back to work. Its being confused with the frustration of self isolation imo.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Of course this is a long-term problem. Equally, you can clearly seer that the Uk strategy in the opening weeks has been poor. Mixed messages galore in the opening weeks with huge gatherings of people taking place when the virus was already spreading like wildfire.

The UK simply had no plan whatsoever after that Imperial study came out, blind leading the blind since then.
I still see no semblance of a plan weeks later.

 

[Wibble]

Such a stupid point.

Why is New York much worse than Massachusetts?

Sweden’s second City Gothenburg is doing as well as their neighbors capitals (so far) which are of a similar size.
Right now Stockholm, an area of 2.3 million people, the most populous in the Nordics and where the virus has been circulating since late February has just 523 deaths and just 213 people in ICU.
Does that really tell that Sweden were “wrong”? Think again.

That is 10 times worse than Australia - more than 20 times adjusted for population - a country with a plan to lock down for up to 6 months if necessary.

 

[Wibble]

At what cost?

Feck work and feck the economy. I’m no kid either but I would happily lose my job and everything I own to keep my family safe.

Exactly. Well said.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

That is 10 times worse than Australia - a country with over 20 million people and a plan to lock down for up to 6 months if necessary.

It’s also ahead of Australia in it’s timeline and Europe was the epicenter.
Try thinking a little more scientific with your comparisons Wibble.
At some point you’d hope people start to understand that unless you can say how many infected people were in a city/country when Italy kicked off, these comparisons are utterly pointless and as unscientific as claiming the Earth is flat.

 

[Smores]

I came to post the above tweets against Starmer but it's not just them the Telegraph and Mail articles recently have quickly gone back to right wing propaganda. They're all desperate to spin the government and Boris as huge successes because this is their WW2 and they want to make political capital of it.

One telegraph article today claims the UK is leading the fight against covid in europe

An interesting thread

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date