SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Cardboard elk]

The accompanying photo, lack of clear indication who makes up their editorial board and sourcing from the Daily Mail are what really makes me wonder about that article.

From dubious sources maybe, yes. I will try and be more cautious in the future. What is true, I do not know. These are the statements of some people. Hopefully investigations into this will shed light on what went on in that lab. I would not rule out anything or conclude myself. There was this other dude, a french nobel prize winner named Montagnier that put forth some similar views earlier, claiming there were elements of aids in the genome of the corona virus. His nobel prize was for aids research. But he was critized for the statements by other "experts" which claimed he had fallen downhill the last years and attacked his credibility. There was a podcast and an article in Le Parisien about this. Anyways, disregard that article, it was too dubious in hindsight

Edit : China has rejected calls for an independent international investigation into the origin of the coronavirus. No transparancy there. Just contributes to conspiracy theories that they refuse international investigations.

 

[giggs-beckham]

So I've been looking at the daily deaths and cases and they seem to be a plateue and a small decrease. But were in lockdown and have been for over a month so what is the likelihood of these numbers being not a decrease but a continuous trend based on our crap social distancing measures? Could this be a norm in figures that doesnt fall. As in these numbers will stay the same.

 

[berbatrick]

Russian scientist Peter Chumakov says Wuhan Lab Chinese scientists created "variants of the virus without malicious intent", possibly aiming for an HIV vaccine.
Scientists at the Wuhan Laboratory, he said, have been actively involved in the development of various coronavirus variants for over 10 years.
"Moreover, they did this, supposedly not with the aim of creating pathogenic variants, but to study their pathogenicity," he said.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articl...ngs-study-covid-19-russian-microbiologist.htm

Really makes you wonder.

> He told Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper: 'There are several inserts, that is, substitutions of the natural sequence of the genome, which gave it special properties.


this is a very testable prediction, it can be tested by any functioning lab in about 2-3 days. if you have the sequence and old bat coronavirus sequences, it wlll not be had to find out if inserts are artifical or not.

 

[Bullhitter]

A read in English on not so much the how's but the why's of the Swedish approach thus far.

https://bppblog.com/2020/04/23/the-swedish-exception/

(possibly written by @Regulus Arcturus Black)

 

[FootballHQ]

Christ no. But their numbers are what is holding the Rest of England back minus the odd city. It's completely understandable that London has been the worst hit, it's usually the capital......unless you're China, of course......

I know you don't watch the daily pressers @Alabaster Codify7 but you'll be amused to know guy from the Evening standard was pretty much pleading with Chris Whitty yesterday with his question for London to end the lockdown before all the other cities and regions. Think he just saw the deaths falling graph and assumed everything would be alright now so didn't quite intepret it correctly.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Did not know that! Cool.
I actually opted out of the clapping last night. I think my parents thought I was a cnut but I'm kind of done with it now, it feels too much like an episode of Black Mirror. Our media spends 23hrs a day terrifying people like my parents with doom and gloom news then pressures them into going outside on cue in their pyjamas to clap and smile like a fecking circus animal. Its making me nauseous now. There's plenty of positives from around the globe they could be slightly telling us about to give people some light at the end of the tunnel but no. Not our media.

I now realize why the world calls us whinging Brits. Nothing but negativity 24/7.

It’s one minute. Show up. Stop whinging.

 

[Arruda]

Russian scientist Peter Chumakov says Wuhan Lab Chinese scientists created "variants of the virus without malicious intent", possibly aiming for an HIV vaccine.
Scientists at the Wuhan Laboratory, he said, have been actively involved in the development of various coronavirus variants for over 10 years.
"Moreover, they did this, supposedly not with the aim of creating pathogenic variants, but to study their pathogenicity," he said.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articl...ngs-study-covid-19-russian-microbiologist.htm

Really makes you wonder.

It shouldn't though, because the only difference between that and the older conspiratorial stories is the intent (malicious or not). You either accept the biological/genetic argument or you don't. Personally I don't know enough to have a strong opinion on that, but the sources claiming the genetic composition points towards a natural occurrence seem a lot more credible to me, whilst the only thing "new" this adds to the table is changing their intent from nefarious to noble.

 

[sammsky1]

 

[432JuanMata]

Just seen if the UK keep up recording 600-800 dead a day for a week or two more they will be the worse affected country per capita. I seen the US are averaging about 2000+ dead a day but per population would need to be reporting 3800 to match UL.
I’m in Ireland we are nearly as bad as UK but we added 185 probable deaths from nursing homes and are counting all

 

[Wibble]

US authorities warn doctors against prescribing hydroxychloroquine
Kenya Evelyn

The US Food and Drug Administration has warned doctors against prescribing the malaria drug Donald Trump has been touting, citing reports of sometimes fatal heart side effects among patients.

From the Associated Press:

The warning comes as doctors at a New York hospital published a report that heart rhythm abnormalities developed in most of 84 coronavirus patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin, a combo Trump has promoted. Both drugs are known to sometimes alter the heartbeat in dangerous ways, and their safety or ability to help people with COVID-19 is unknown.

The warning excludes in hospital and research studies. A National Institutes of Health experts panel earlier this week also recommended against taking that drug combo except in a formal study.

 

[Wibble]

Really makes you wonder.

No it doesn't. The genome of the virus precludes it being man made. It also couldn't have come from the bat virus they have because the virus that was involved in this outbreak had evolved for up to 50 years in a bat or other host since. So it just isn't possible.

 

[Dancfc]

no doubt a fan of queen troll herself

Tweet

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Tweet

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wheres karma when you need it

While I don't agree with her general tone/message is it actually true people with lumps aren't getting looked at? Genuinely scandalous if true.

 

[bri2013]

No it doesn't. The genome of the virus precludes it being man made. It also couldn't have come from the bat virus they have because the virus that was involved in this outbreak had evolved for up to 50 years in a bat or other host since. So it just isn't possible.

Am I missing something here? You are saying that it is impossible that it is man made?. But also are you ruling out the "supposed" origin as the "Bat virus" (your words!).

So, In your opinion, where do you think it came from?

Just curious because you seem to be clued up on this.

 

[Wibble]

While I don't agree with her general tone/message is it actually true people with lumps aren't getting looked at? Genuinely scandalous if true.

Putting people without Covid into buildings packed with Covid victims would be a disaster.

The trick is to assume that whatever she thinks the opposite is true.

 

[Wibble]

Am I missing something here? You are saying that it is impossible that it is man made?. But also are you ruling out the "supposed" origin as the "Bat virus" (your words!).

So, In your opinion, where do you think it came from?

Just curious because you seem to be clued up on this.

That is the consensus and virtual certainty. This addresses how SARS-CoV-2 couldn't have come directly from the virus held in the lab.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opin...professor-edward-holmes-sars-cov-2-virus.html

The other thing is that an engineered virus has very specific single point changes. This virus genome shows small changes all over it's genome (in the 20-50 years of antigen drift that he is talking about) something that would be impossible to mimic with genetic engineering. The last bit I'm paraphrasing someone on here (I forget who - sorry) who does genetic engineering on bacteria - hopefully I got the gist of it right.

I'm not sure I exactly said supposed bat virus. If I did I wasn't being clear.

The origin of this is a bat virus. That virus then gradually mutated over 20-50 years in bats (separate from the bats who currently have the source virus RaTG13 ) and/or an intermediate host (possibly a pangolin). The next bit is somewhat speculative but won't be far from the truth when we find the intermediate host. At some point relatively recently the slowly evolved virus probably recombines with another virus in the intermediate host, which probably had little or no impact on the host but allowed the virus to be passed more easily to humans (and it happened to be quite dangerous for us). This transmission to humans either a) happened at the Wuhan wet market, b) happened as a different wet market or similar source of animals sold at the wet market and the infected person worked at the Wuhan wet market or c) patient zero got is somewhere else and just visited the Wuhan wet market and infected one or more people who worked there who spread it further. I would be very surprised if the truth is very far away from that scenario.

 

[Dancfc]

Putting people without Covid into buildings packed with Covid victims would be a disaster.

The trick is to assume that whatever she thinks the opposite is true.

So In other words, someone who potentially has cancer can't get tested and then if need be treated?

There's still other illnesses too!

 

[bri2013]

That is the consensus and virtual certainty. This addresses how SARS-CoV-2 couldn't have come directly from the virus held in the lab.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opin...professor-edward-holmes-sars-cov-2-virus.html

The other thing is that an engineered virus has very specific single point changes. This virus genome shows small changes all over it's genome (in the 20-50 years of antigen drift that he is talking about) something that would be impossible to mimic with genetic engineering. The last bit I'm paraphrasing someone on here (I forget who - sorry) who does genetic engineering on bacteria - hopefully I got the gist of it.

Are you a virologist or epidemioligist or whatever the correct term is?

The link I read from your post said this at the end.

"In summary, the abundance, diversity and evolution of coronaviruses in wildlife strongly suggests that this virus is of natural origin. However, a greater sampling of animal species in nature, including bats from Hubei province, is needed to resolve the exact origins of SARS-CoV-2."

 

[Wibble]

So In other words, someone who potentially has cancer can't get tested and then if need be treated?

There's still other illnesses too!

There are but you have to solve the pandemic before doing less urgent things. Some people will get worse outcomes but giving them the virus as well is a bad idea on a number of levels. It makes the pandemic worse and spreads the illness in people who have other conditions already.

The way to get other treated is to get on top of SARS-CoV-2 as fast as possible.

 

[Dancfc]

There are but you have to solve the pandemic before doing less urgent things. Some people will get worse outcomes but giving them the virus as well is a bad idea on a number of levels. It makes the pandemic worse and spreads the illness in people who have other conditions already.

The way to get other treated is to get on top of SARS-CoV-2 as fast as possible.

But isn't the whole sell of this lockdown based on saving lives? Imagine following those rules to the letter only to be told that literally nothing is going to be done to save you. Imagine that young terminally ill Sunderland fan (that Defoe had a bond with) going through what he went through at the very end today.

 

[Wibble]

Are you a virologist or epidemioligist or whatever the correct term is?

No but used to be an evolutionary biologist. I'm learning lots about it though - not an expert but usually OK at judging how good bad or indifferent information/data sources are. And it isn't easy at the moment because things are moving so fast. The primary literature where there are well designed, well controlled long term studies that are then peer reviewed by numerous experts in the field prior to publication can't be our source of information at the moment and that makes it hard.

 

[Wibble]

But isn't the whole sell of this lockdown based on saving lives? Imagine following those rules to the letter only to be told that literally nothing is going to be done to save you. Imagine that young terminally ill Sunderland fan (that Defoe had a bond with) going through what he went through at the very end today.

It is but no matter what we have to balance the risks and the UK isn't locked down very hard despite having huge infection levels. Covid kills now and has to be dealt with now, later detection of things like cancers will cause adverse outcomes but far fewer. I'm not sure if a terminal patient right at the end wouldn't be admitted although i guess it is possible if hospitals are overwhelmed. And that would be truly terrible. But the way to avoid/minimise these sorts of things is to get SARS-CoV-2 under control ASAP.

Australia and (I think) NZ are going to start elective surgery again very soon - possibly next week - as they are close to eliminating the virus from the general population.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

But isn't the whole sell of this lockdown based on saving lives? Imagine following those rules to the letter only to be told that literally nothing is going to be done to save you. Imagine that young terminally ill Sunderland fan (that Defoe had a bond with) going through what he went through at the very end today.

Why do you think that fan would have received a lower level of care?

 

[RK]

So I've been looking at the daily deaths and cases and they seem to be a plateue and a small decrease. But were in lockdown and have been for over a month so what is the likelihood of these numbers being not a decrease but a continuous trend based on our crap social distancing measures? Could this be a norm in figures that doesnt fall. As in these numbers will stay the same.

The reporting data is noisy, a few of us have tried smoothing it. My interpretation at the moment:

UK deaths peaked on the 9th-11th April (in terms of reporting).
The UK has declined steadily since then but slower than Spain or Italy. 10 days on from the peak, reporting was at ~80% of the peak (a reduction of ~15 deaths per day).
Continuing that trend linearly (a bad assumption), zero deaths would be reached in another 40-50 days. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, it is not accurate, but it does show an appreciable decline currently which is encouraging.
The decline won't be linear. If conditions stay the same, the gradient could increase or decrease in the short term, but in the long term countries are seeing slow exponential decay towards zero.

 

[RoadTrip]

So I know France report suspected cases and care home deaths and so their figures are incomparable to the UK and the UK is obviously much higher.

What about Spain / Italy? What are they reporting?

 

[redshaw]

​

United Kingdom Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​	Germany Dates​	Germany Deaths​	USA Dates​	USA Deaths​
Mar 8th​	3​	Feb-23rd​	3​	Mar 5th​	3​	Mar 2nd​	3​	Mar 11th​	3​	Mar 1st​	2​
Mar 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	Mar 6th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	4​	Mar 12th​	5​	Mar 2nd​	6​
Mar 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	Mar 7th​	10​	Mar 4th​	4​	Mar 13th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	9​
Mar 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	Mar 8th​	17​	Mar 5th​	7​	Mar 14th​	8​	Mar 4th​	11​
Mar 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 6th​	9​	Mar 15th​	12​	Mar 5th​	11​
Mar 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	Mar 10th​	36​	Mar 7th​	16​	Mar 16th​	12​	Mar 6th​	14​
Mar 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	Mar 11th​	55​	Mar 8th​	19​	Mar 17th​	12​	Mar 7th​	19​
Mar 15th​	35​	Mar 1st​	41​	Mar 12th​	86​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 18th​	12​	Mar 8th​	21​
Mar 16th​	55​	Mar 2nd​	52​	Mar 13th​	133​	Mar 10th​	33​	Mar 19th​	20​	Mar 9th​	26​
Mar 17th​	71​	Mar 3rd​	79​	Mar 14th​	196​	Mar 11th​	48​	Mar 20th​	31​	Mar 10th​	31​
Mar 18th​	104​	Mar 4th​	107​	Mar 15th​	294​	Mar 12th​	61​	Mar 21st​	47​	Mar 11th​	37​
Mar 19th​	144​	Mar 5th​	148​	Mar 16th​	342​	Mar 13th​	79​	Mar-22nd​	55​	Mar 12th​	41​
Mar 20th​	177​	Mar 6th​	197​	Mar 17th​	533​	Mar 14th​	91​	Mar 23rd​	86​	Mar 13th​	49​
Mar 21st​	233​	Mar 7th​	233​	Mar 18th​	638​	Mar 15th​	127​	Mar 24th​	114​	Mar 14th​	55​
Mar 22nd​	281​	Mar 8th​	366​	Mar 19th​	833​	Mar 16th​	148​	Mar 25th​	149​	Mar 15th​	62​
Mar 23rd​	335​	Mar 9th​	463​	Mar 20th​	1,093​	Mar 17th​	175​	Mar 26th​	198​	Mar 16th​	76​
Mar 24th​	422​	Mar 10th​	631​	Mar 21st​	1,381​	Mar 18th​	244​	Mar 27th​	253​	Mar 17th​	97​
Mar 25th​	468​	Mar 11th​	827​	Mar 22nd​	1,813​	Mar 19th​	372​	Mar 28th​	325​	Mar 18th​	123​
Mar 26th​	578​	Mar 12th​	1,016​	Mar 23rd​	2,207​	Mar 20th​	450​	Mar 29th​	389​	Mar19th​	175​
Mar 27th​	759​	Mar 13th​	1,266​	Mar 24th​	2,696​	Mar 21st​	562​	Mar 30th​	455​	Mar 20th​	230​
Mar 28th​	1,019​	Mar 14th​	1,441​	Mar 25th​	3,434​	Mar 22nd​	674​	Mar 31st​	600​	Mar 21st​	298​
Mar 29th​	1,228​	Mar 15th​	1,809​	Mar 26th​	4,145​	Mar 23rd​	860​	Apr 1st​	732​	Mar 22nd​	408​
Mar 30th​	1,408​	Mar 16th​	2,158​	Mar 27th​	4,858​	Mar 24th​	1100​	Apr 2nd​	872​	Mar 23rd​	519​
Mar 31st​	1,789​	Mar 17th​	2,503​	Mar 28th​	5,690​	Mar 25th​	1331​	Apr 3rd​	1,017​	Mar 24th​	681​
Apr 1st​	2,352​	Mar 18th​	2,978​	Mar 29th​	6,528​	Mar 26th​	1,696​	Apr 4th​	1,158​	Mar 25th​	906​
Apr 2nd​	2,921​	Mar 19th​	3,405​	Mar 30th​	7,340​	Mar 27th​	1,995​	Apr 5th​	1,342​	Mar 26th​	1,159​
Apr 3rd​	3,605​	Mar 20th​	4,032​	Mar 31st​	8,189​	Mar 28th​	2,314​	Apr 6th​	1,434​	Mar 27th​	1,592​
Apr 4th​	4,313​	Mar 21st​	4,825​	Apr 1st​	9,053​	Mar 29th​	2,606​	Apr 7th​	1,607​	Mar 28th​	2,039​
Apr 5th​	4,934​	Mar 22nd​	5,475​	Apr 2nd​	10,003​	Mar 30th​	3,024​	Apr 8th​	1,861​	Mar 29th​	2,431​
Apr 6th​	5,373​	Mar 23rd​	6,077​	Apr 3rd​	10,935​	Mar 31st​	3,523​	Apr 9th​	2,107​	Mar 30th​	2,985​
Apr 7th​	6,159​	Mar 24th​	6,820​	Apr 4th​	11,744​	Apr 1st​	4,032​	Apr 10th​	2,373​	Mar 31st​	3,806​
Apr 8th​	7,097​	Mar 25th​	7,503​	Apr 5th​	12,418​	Apr 2nd​	4,503​	Apr 11th​	2,544​	Apr 1st​	4,746​
Apr 9th​	7,978​	Mar 26th​	8,215​	Apr 6th​	13,055​	Apr 3rd​	5,091​	Apr 12th​	2,673​	Apr 2nd​	5,821​
Apr 10th​	8,958​	Mar 27th​	9,134​	Apr 7th​	13,798​	Apr 4th​	5,532​	Apr 13th​	2,799​	Apr 3rd​	7,007​
Apr 11th​	9,875​	Mar 28th​	10,023​	Apr 8th​	14,555​	Apr 5th​	5,889​	Apr 14th​	2,969​	Apr 4th​	8,359​
Apr 12th​	10,612​	Mar 29th​	10,779​	Apr 9th​	15,238​	Apr 6th​	6,494​	Apr 15th​	3,254​	Apr 5th​	9,534​
Apr 13th​	11,329​	Mar 30th​	11,591​	Apr 10th​	15,843​	Apr 7th​	7,091​	Apr 16th​	3,569​	Apr 6th​	10,748​
Apr 14th​	12,107​	Mar 31st​	12,428​	Apr 11th​	16,353​	Apr 8th​	7,632​	Apr 17th​	3,868​	Apr 7th​	12,674​
Apr 15th​	12,868​	Apr 1st​	13,155​	Apr 12th​	16,972​	Apr 9th​	8,044​	Apr 18th​	4,110​	Apr 8th​	14,610​
Apr 16th​	13,729​	Apr 2nd​	13,915​	Apr 13th​	17,489​	Apr 10th​	8,598​	Apr 19th​	4,294​	Apr 9th​	16,466​
Apr 17th​	14,576​	Apr 3rd​	14,681​	Apr 14th​	18,056​	Apr 11th​	8,943​	Apr 20th​	4,404​	Apr 10th​	18,544​
Apr 18th​	15,464​	Apr 4th​	15,362​	Apr 15th​	18,579​	Apr 12th​	9,258​	Apr 21st​	4,598​	Apr 11th​	20,454​
Apr 19th​	16,060​	Apr 5th​	15,887​	Apr 16th​	19,130​	Apr 13th​	9,588​	Apr 22nd​	4,879​	Apr 12th​	21,936​
Apr 20th​	16,509​	Apr 6th​	16,523​	Apr 17th​	19,478​	Apr 14th​	10,129​	Apr 23rd​	5,094​	Apr 13th​	23,398​
Apr 21st​	17,337​	Apr 7th​	17,127​	Apr 18th​	20,043​	Apr 15th​	10,643​	Apr 24th​	5,321​	Apr 14th​	25,776​
Apr 22nd​	18,100​	Apr 8th​	17,669​	Apr 19th​	20,453​	Apr 16th​	11,060​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 15th​	28,214​
Apr 23rd​	18,738​	Apr 9th​	18,279​	Apr 20th​	20,852​	Apr 17th​	11,478​	​	​	Apr 16th​	30,355​
Apr 24th​	19,506​	Apr 10th​	18,849​	Apr 21st​	21,282​	Apr 18th​	11,842​	​	​	Apr 17th​	32,435​
Apr 25th​	​	Apr 11th​	19,468​	Apr 22nd​	21,717​	Apr 19th​	12,069​	​	​	Apr 18th​	34,178​
​	​	Apr 12th​	19,899​	Apr 23rd​	22,157​	Apr 20th​	12,513​	​	​	Apr 19th​	35,812​
​	​	Apr 13th​	20,465​	Apr 24th​	22,524​	Apr 21st​	12,900​	​	​	Apr 20th​	37,455​
​	​	Apr 14th​	21,067​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 22nd​	13,236​	​	​	Apr 21st​	40,082​
​	​	Apr 15th​	21,645​	Apr 26th​	​	Apr 23rd​	13,547​	​	​	Apr 22nd​	42,200​
​	​	Apr 16th​	22,170​	​	​	Apr 24th​	13,852​	​	​	Apr 23rd​	44,198​
						Apr 25th				Apr 24th	46,101

Note France announced cumulative batches of deaths for care/nursing homes from the 2nd of April and these have been left out for the time being as other countries don't count them and have not been released. 8393 in total. USA is official CDC, often reported in media are CDC + probable and John Hopkins + probable.
Disclaimer: Please make your own table or graph of your choosing if you don't like the starting point or whatever else, I've updated it and added other countries at user request but didn't start it.
​

The table shows what a good job Spain have done in getting the numbers down with a severe lockdown. They quickly outpaced Italy with double the numbers. France have done really well. UK were a little behind Italy but have overtaken and look on course to overtake Spain soon. Spain and Italy took around 6-7 days to reach a 400-600 range, UK is still trying to get there after 14 days. Looking like UK will be worst hit or joint worst hit with Italy.

Spain early on and at the peak had half of the cases in Madrid. While London is a hotspot for UK it only accounts for just under a quarter of cases last I looked recently and very early I remember seeing quite an even spread up to the far north, London 81, Manchester 32, Liverpool 18, Birmingham 40+ and so on. I think it can help if you can target one region. Not sure in France, I know the North Eastern area is the most affected and looks less spread out on the maps.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

To be honest, it's not that shocking from a physiological point of view. Shortness of breath and distress mainly hinges on accumulation of CO2 and a high work of breathing. We don't see these patients with abnormal PCO2 levels. They can get rid of that, albeit with a high required effort. Hypoxia usually causes respiratory distress if you're already accustomed to elevated PCO2 levels. I mean, you already know this so I'm not looking to educate you, just saying that it makes sense in a way.

Proning is a cornerstone in classic ARDS treatment, just that it's rare enough to have patients with such severe cases of ARDS since there's an underlying disorder that is treatable. Usually, the ARDS clears before you've exhausted all supine treatment options. In my ICU, I'd say that we have (ballpark figure) 15 patients in a year that require proning.

In moderate to severe ARDS, it halved the mortality from 32% to 16% in one RCT, which is quite a lot better than many other ICU treatments. The "two phenotypes of Covid-19" might be a thing or it may just be two phases of the same disorder, but in the ARDS-like state, it makes a lot of sense to prone the patients to improve ventilation/perfusion matching.

But yeah, regarding your main point, it's a weird fecking disease. I mean, we see people with the flu getting this bad but by the time you tube them the infection's already getting better so you only need to ride it out and let them recover from the effort of breathing. We've had patients in our ICU for nigh on three weeks now that look the same on their CXR as they did when they arrived.

That’a all really interesting. Please don’t worry about patronising me. I’ve never worked in ICU and haven’t worked in a hospital for nearly 20 years, so whatever I know about treating ARDS is only picked up in last few weeks and mainly from whatsapp group with friends from med school!

 

[Kopral Jono]

Why does the comment section on YouTube attract the worst kind of idiots? Right now I'm watching a video on corona vaccine development -- it's astonishing the sheer amount of anti-vax tripe being posted and the number of likes these posts get.

 

[giggs-beckham]

The reporting data is noisy, a few of us have tried smoothing it. My interpretation at the moment:

UK deaths peaked on the 9th-11th April (in terms of reporting).
The UK has declined steadily since then but slower than Spain or Italy. 10 days on from the peak, reporting was at ~80% of the peak (a reduction of ~15 deaths per day).
Continuing that trend linearly (a bad assumption), zero deaths would be reached in another 40-50 days. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, it is not accurate, but it does show an appreciable decline currently which is encouraging.
The decline won't be linear. If conditions stay the same, the gradient could increase or decrease in the short term, but in the long term countries are seeing slow exponential decay towards zero.

Ok thanks. Let's hope so, these declines appear to be so slow it's hard to know why.

 

[Wibble]

Why does the comment section on YouTube attract the worst kind of idiots? Right now I'm watching a video on corona vaccine development -- it's astonishing the sheer amount of anti-vax tripe being posted and the number of likes these posts get.

I keep hoping that it is how we round up those who will be first against the wall come the revolution.

 

[Adisa]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[BootsyCollins]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

We could beat this virus, but instead some idiots are going to fuze it with stupidity and spread it around to everyone.

 

[Wumminator]

When football comes back I think some teams like Burnley and Stoke will get a “stand up for the NHS” chant going and I also think that there will be a minutes applause on say a certain minute to “honour” the dead.
That is my current thoughts on Corona.

 

[Withnail]

It's not a grammatical error, it's Headlinese.

Headlines have always been like this.

 

[horsechoker]

12 years?

 

[AaronRedDevil]

We could beat this virus, but instead some idiots are going to fuze it with stupidity and spread it around to everyone.

It's natural selection at this point. Let the idiots suffer the consequences.

 

[SirAnderson]

It's natural selection at this point. Let the idiots suffer the consequences.

Unfortunately, those idiots are going to infect the sensible individuals when they go home.

 

[Suedesi]

​

United Kingdom Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​	Germany Dates​	Germany Deaths​	USA Dates​	USA Deaths​
Mar 8th​	3​	Feb-23rd​	3​	Mar 5th​	3​	Mar 2nd​	3​	Mar 11th​	3​	Mar 1st​	2​
Mar 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	Mar 6th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	4​	Mar 12th​	5​	Mar 2nd​	6​
Mar 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	Mar 7th​	10​	Mar 4th​	4​	Mar 13th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	9​
Mar 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	Mar 8th​	17​	Mar 5th​	7​	Mar 14th​	8​	Mar 4th​	11​
Mar 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 6th​	9​	Mar 15th​	12​	Mar 5th​	11​
Mar 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	Mar 10th​	36​	Mar 7th​	16​	Mar 16th​	12​	Mar 6th​	14​
Mar 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	Mar 11th​	55​	Mar 8th​	19​	Mar 17th​	12​	Mar 7th​	19​
Mar 15th​	35​	Mar 1st​	41​	Mar 12th​	86​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 18th​	12​	Mar 8th​	21​
Mar 16th​	55​	Mar 2nd​	52​	Mar 13th​	133​	Mar 10th​	33​	Mar 19th​	20​	Mar 9th​	26​
Mar 17th​	71​	Mar 3rd​	79​	Mar 14th​	196​	Mar 11th​	48​	Mar 20th​	31​	Mar 10th​	31​
Mar 18th​	104​	Mar 4th​	107​	Mar 15th​	294​	Mar 12th​	61​	Mar 21st​	47​	Mar 11th​	37​
Mar 19th​	144​	Mar 5th​	148​	Mar 16th​	342​	Mar 13th​	79​	Mar-22nd​	55​	Mar 12th​	41​
Mar 20th​	177​	Mar 6th​	197​	Mar 17th​	533​	Mar 14th​	91​	Mar 23rd​	86​	Mar 13th​	49​
Mar 21st​	233​	Mar 7th​	233​	Mar 18th​	638​	Mar 15th​	127​	Mar 24th​	114​	Mar 14th​	55​
Mar 22nd​	281​	Mar 8th​	366​	Mar 19th​	833​	Mar 16th​	148​	Mar 25th​	149​	Mar 15th​	62​
Mar 23rd​	335​	Mar 9th​	463​	Mar 20th​	1,093​	Mar 17th​	175​	Mar 26th​	198​	Mar 16th​	76​
Mar 24th​	422​	Mar 10th​	631​	Mar 21st​	1,381​	Mar 18th​	244​	Mar 27th​	253​	Mar 17th​	97​
Mar 25th​	468​	Mar 11th​	827​	Mar 22nd​	1,813​	Mar 19th​	372​	Mar 28th​	325​	Mar 18th​	123​
Mar 26th​	578​	Mar 12th​	1,016​	Mar 23rd​	2,207​	Mar 20th​	450​	Mar 29th​	389​	Mar19th​	175​
Mar 27th​	759​	Mar 13th​	1,266​	Mar 24th​	2,696​	Mar 21st​	562​	Mar 30th​	455​	Mar 20th​	230​
Mar 28th​	1,019​	Mar 14th​	1,441​	Mar 25th​	3,434​	Mar 22nd​	674​	Mar 31st​	600​	Mar 21st​	298​
Mar 29th​	1,228​	Mar 15th​	1,809​	Mar 26th​	4,145​	Mar 23rd​	860​	Apr 1st​	732​	Mar 22nd​	408​
Mar 30th​	1,408​	Mar 16th​	2,158​	Mar 27th​	4,858​	Mar 24th​	1100​	Apr 2nd​	872​	Mar 23rd​	519​
Mar 31st​	1,789​	Mar 17th​	2,503​	Mar 28th​	5,690​	Mar 25th​	1331​	Apr 3rd​	1,017​	Mar 24th​	681​
Apr 1st​	2,352​	Mar 18th​	2,978​	Mar 29th​	6,528​	Mar 26th​	1,696​	Apr 4th​	1,158​	Mar 25th​	906​
Apr 2nd​	2,921​	Mar 19th​	3,405​	Mar 30th​	7,340​	Mar 27th​	1,995​	Apr 5th​	1,342​	Mar 26th​	1,159​
Apr 3rd​	3,605​	Mar 20th​	4,032​	Mar 31st​	8,189​	Mar 28th​	2,314​	Apr 6th​	1,434​	Mar 27th​	1,592​
Apr 4th​	4,313​	Mar 21st​	4,825​	Apr 1st​	9,053​	Mar 29th​	2,606​	Apr 7th​	1,607​	Mar 28th​	2,039​
Apr 5th​	4,934​	Mar 22nd​	5,475​	Apr 2nd​	10,003​	Mar 30th​	3,024​	Apr 8th​	1,861​	Mar 29th​	2,431​
Apr 6th​	5,373​	Mar 23rd​	6,077​	Apr 3rd​	10,935​	Mar 31st​	3,523​	Apr 9th​	2,107​	Mar 30th​	2,985​
Apr 7th​	6,159​	Mar 24th​	6,820​	Apr 4th​	11,744​	Apr 1st​	4,032​	Apr 10th​	2,373​	Mar 31st​	3,806​
Apr 8th​	7,097​	Mar 25th​	7,503​	Apr 5th​	12,418​	Apr 2nd​	4,503​	Apr 11th​	2,544​	Apr 1st​	4,746​
Apr 9th​	7,978​	Mar 26th​	8,215​	Apr 6th​	13,055​	Apr 3rd​	5,091​	Apr 12th​	2,673​	Apr 2nd​	5,821​
Apr 10th​	8,958​	Mar 27th​	9,134​	Apr 7th​	13,798​	Apr 4th​	5,532​	Apr 13th​	2,799​	Apr 3rd​	7,007​
Apr 11th​	9,875​	Mar 28th​	10,023​	Apr 8th​	14,555​	Apr 5th​	5,889​	Apr 14th​	2,969​	Apr 4th​	8,359​
Apr 12th​	10,612​	Mar 29th​	10,779​	Apr 9th​	15,238​	Apr 6th​	6,494​	Apr 15th​	3,254​	Apr 5th​	9,534​
Apr 13th​	11,329​	Mar 30th​	11,591​	Apr 10th​	15,843​	Apr 7th​	7,091​	Apr 16th​	3,569​	Apr 6th​	10,748​
Apr 14th​	12,107​	Mar 31st​	12,428​	Apr 11th​	16,353​	Apr 8th​	7,632​	Apr 17th​	3,868​	Apr 7th​	12,674​
Apr 15th​	12,868​	Apr 1st​	13,155​	Apr 12th​	16,972​	Apr 9th​	8,044​	Apr 18th​	4,110​	Apr 8th​	14,610​
Apr 16th​	13,729​	Apr 2nd​	13,915​	Apr 13th​	17,489​	Apr 10th​	8,598​	Apr 19th​	4,294​	Apr 9th​	16,466​
Apr 17th​	14,576​	Apr 3rd​	14,681​	Apr 14th​	18,056​	Apr 11th​	8,943​	Apr 20th​	4,404​	Apr 10th​	18,544​
Apr 18th​	15,464​	Apr 4th​	15,362​	Apr 15th​	18,579​	Apr 12th​	9,258​	Apr 21st​	4,598​	Apr 11th​	20,454​
Apr 19th​	16,060​	Apr 5th​	15,887​	Apr 16th​	19,130​	Apr 13th​	9,588​	Apr 22nd​	4,879​	Apr 12th​	21,936​
Apr 20th​	16,509​	Apr 6th​	16,523​	Apr 17th​	19,478​	Apr 14th​	10,129​	Apr 23rd​	5,094​	Apr 13th​	23,398​
Apr 21st​	17,337​	Apr 7th​	17,127​	Apr 18th​	20,043​	Apr 15th​	10,643​	Apr 24th​	5,321​	Apr 14th​	25,776​
Apr 22nd​	18,100​	Apr 8th​	17,669​	Apr 19th​	20,453​	Apr 16th​	11,060​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 15th​	28,214​
Apr 23rd​	18,738​	Apr 9th​	18,279​	Apr 20th​	20,852​	Apr 17th​	11,478​	​	​	Apr 16th​	30,355​
Apr 24th​	19,506​	Apr 10th​	18,849​	Apr 21st​	21,282​	Apr 18th​	11,842​	​	​	Apr 17th​	32,435​
Apr 25th​	​	Apr 11th​	19,468​	Apr 22nd​	21,717​	Apr 19th​	12,069​	​	​	Apr 18th​	34,178​
​	​	Apr 12th​	19,899​	Apr 23rd​	22,157​	Apr 20th​	12,513​	​	​	Apr 19th​	35,812​
​	​	Apr 13th​	20,465​	Apr 24th​	22,524​	Apr 21st​	12,900​	​	​	Apr 20th​	37,455​
​	​	Apr 14th​	21,067​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 22nd​	13,236​	​	​	Apr 21st​	40,082​
​	​	Apr 15th​	21,645​	Apr 26th​	​	Apr 23rd​	13,547​	​	​	Apr 22nd​	42,200​
​	​	Apr 16th​	22,170​	​	​	Apr 24th​	13,852​	​	​	Apr 23rd​	44,198​
						Apr 25th				Apr 24th	46,101

Note France announced cumulative batches of deaths for care/nursing homes from the 2nd of April and these have been left out for the time being as other countries don't count them and have not been released. 8393 in total. USA is official CDC, often reported in media are CDC + probable and John Hopkins + probable.
Disclaimer: Please make your own table or graph of your choosing if you don't like the starting point or whatever else, I've updated it and added other countries at user request but didn't start it.
​

The table shows what a good job Spain have done in getting the numbers down with a severe lockdown. They quickly outpaced Italy with double the numbers. France have done really well. UK were a little behind Italy but have overtaken and look on course to overtake Spain soon. Spain and Italy took around 6-7 days to reach a 400-600 range, UK is still trying to get there after 14 days. Looking like UK will be worst hit or joint worst hit with Italy.

Spain early on and at the peak had half of the cases in Madrid. While London is a hotspot for UK it only accounts for just under a quarter of cases last I looked recently and very early I remember seeing quite an even spread up to the far north, London 81, Manchester 32, Liverpool 18, Birmingham 40+ and so on. I think it can help if you can target one region. Not sure in France, I know the North Eastern area is the most affected and looks less spread out on the maps.

COVID-19 Cases, Deaths and New Deaths 1 week avg, normalized by country population

 

[Withnail]

A read in English on not so much the how's but the why's of the Swedish approach thus far.

https://bppblog.com/2020/04/23/the-swedish-exception/

(possibly written by @Regulus Arcturus Black)

Interesting to note it's not constitutionally possible for them to declare a state of emergency in peacetime so full lock down isn't actually enforceable over there.

Incidentally, does anyone know of a site which compares the current transmission rates? I couldn't find anything online and I think it would give a better indication of how the methods deployed in the different countries are working.

 

[Anustart89]

That’a all really interesting. Please don’t worry about patronising me. I’ve never worked in ICU and haven’t worked in a hospital for nearly 20 years, so whatever I know about treating ARDS is only picked up in last few weeks and mainly from whatsapp group with friends from med school!

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1214103

Here’s the 2013 article I mentioned if you’re interested. Only severe ARDS actually.

And if you’re interested in further material with regards to Intensive Care and anaesthesia, allow me to plug InterAnest shamelessly on youtube. A colleague of mine who pumps out educational material, some of which I am closely involved in. All videos are less than 7 minutes long. We’ll be releasing a video on proning in English in a few days.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1214103

Here’s the 2013 article I mentioned if you’re interested. Only severe ARDS actually.

And if you’re interested in further material with regards to Intensive Care and anaesthesia, allow me to plug InterAnest shamelessly on youtube. A colleague of mine who pumps out educational material, some of which I am closely involved in. All videos are less than 7 minutes long. We’ll be releasing a video on proning in English in a few days.

Cool. Thanks. Will read/check out your YT channel later. Just been listening to webinar arranged by our College of Physicians and the talk about serological response and post-infection immunity has got me on a massive downer. Need to take a break from covid chat for now!