SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[redshaw]

​

United Kingdom Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​	Germany Dates​	Germany Deaths​	USA Dates​	USA Deaths​
Mar 8th​	3​	Feb-23rd​	3​	Mar 5th​	3​	Mar 2nd​	3​	Mar 11th​	3​	Mar 1st​	2​
Mar 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	Mar 6th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	4​	Mar 12th​	5​	Mar 2nd​	6​
Mar 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	Mar 7th​	10​	Mar 4th​	4​	Mar 13th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	9​
Mar 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	Mar 8th​	17​	Mar 5th​	7​	Mar 14th​	8​	Mar 4th​	11​
Mar 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 6th​	9​	Mar 15th​	12​	Mar 5th​	11​
Mar 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	Mar 10th​	36​	Mar 7th​	16​	Mar 16th​	12​	Mar 6th​	14​
Mar 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	Mar 11th​	55​	Mar 8th​	19​	Mar 17th​	12​	Mar 7th​	19​
Mar 15th​	35​	Mar 1st​	41​	Mar 12th​	86​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 18th​	12​	Mar 8th​	21​
Mar 16th​	55​	Mar 2nd​	52​	Mar 13th​	133​	Mar 10th​	33​	Mar 19th​	20​	Mar 9th​	26​
Mar 17th​	71​	Mar 3rd​	79​	Mar 14th​	196​	Mar 11th​	48​	Mar 20th​	31​	Mar 10th​	31​
Mar 18th​	104​	Mar 4th​	107​	Mar 15th​	294​	Mar 12th​	61​	Mar 21st​	47​	Mar 11th​	37​
Mar 19th​	144​	Mar 5th​	148​	Mar 16th​	342​	Mar 13th​	79​	Mar-22nd​	55​	Mar 12th​	41​
Mar 20th​	177​	Mar 6th​	197​	Mar 17th​	533​	Mar 14th​	91​	Mar 23rd​	86​	Mar 13th​	49​
Mar 21st​	233​	Mar 7th​	233​	Mar 18th​	638​	Mar 15th​	127​	Mar 24th​	114​	Mar 14th​	55​
Mar 22nd​	281​	Mar 8th​	366​	Mar 19th​	833​	Mar 16th​	148​	Mar 25th​	149​	Mar 15th​	62​
Mar 23rd​	335​	Mar 9th​	463​	Mar 20th​	1,093​	Mar 17th​	175​	Mar 26th​	198​	Mar 16th​	76​
Mar 24th​	422​	Mar 10th​	631​	Mar 21st​	1,381​	Mar 18th​	244​	Mar 27th​	253​	Mar 17th​	97​
Mar 25th​	468​	Mar 11th​	827​	Mar 22nd​	1,813​	Mar 19th​	372​	Mar 28th​	325​	Mar 18th​	123​
Mar 26th​	578​	Mar 12th​	1,016​	Mar 23rd​	2,207​	Mar 20th​	450​	Mar 29th​	389​	Mar19th​	175​
Mar 27th​	759​	Mar 13th​	1,266​	Mar 24th​	2,696​	Mar 21st​	562​	Mar 30th​	455​	Mar 20th​	230​
Mar 28th​	1,019​	Mar 14th​	1,441​	Mar 25th​	3,434​	Mar 22nd​	674​	Mar 31st​	600​	Mar 21st​	298​
Mar 29th​	1,228​	Mar 15th​	1,809​	Mar 26th​	4,145​	Mar 23rd​	860​	Apr 1st​	732​	Mar 22nd​	408​
Mar 30th​	1,408​	Mar 16th​	2,158​	Mar 27th​	4,858​	Mar 24th​	1100​	Apr 2nd​	872​	Mar 23rd​	519​
Mar 31st​	1,789​	Mar 17th​	2,503​	Mar 28th​	5,690​	Mar 25th​	1331​	Apr 3rd​	1,017​	Mar 24th​	681​
Apr 1st​	2,352​	Mar 18th​	2,978​	Mar 29th​	6,528​	Mar 26th​	1,696​	Apr 4th​	1,158​	Mar 25th​	906​
Apr 2nd​	2,921​	Mar 19th​	3,405​	Mar 30th​	7,340​	Mar 27th​	1,995​	Apr 5th​	1,342​	Mar 26th​	1,159​
Apr 3rd​	3,605​	Mar 20th​	4,032​	Mar 31st​	8,189​	Mar 28th​	2,314​	Apr 6th​	1,434​	Mar 27th​	1,592​
Apr 4th​	4,313​	Mar 21st​	4,825​	Apr 1st​	9,053​	Mar 29th​	2,606​	Apr 7th​	1,607​	Mar 28th​	2,039​
Apr 5th​	4,934​	Mar 22nd​	5,475​	Apr 2nd​	10,003​	Mar 30th​	3,024​	Apr 8th​	1,861​	Mar 29th​	2,431​
Apr 6th​	5,373​	Mar 23rd​	6,077​	Apr 3rd​	10,935​	Mar 31st​	3,523​	Apr 9th​	2,107​	Mar 30th​	2,985​
Apr 7th​	6,159​	Mar 24th​	6,820​	Apr 4th​	11,744​	Apr 1st​	4,032​	Apr 10th​	2,373​	Mar 31st​	3,806​
Apr 8th​	7,097​	Mar 25th​	7,503​	Apr 5th​	12,418​	Apr 2nd​	4,503​	Apr 11th​	2,544​	Apr 1st​	4,746​
Apr 9th​	7,978​	Mar 26th​	8,215​	Apr 6th​	13,055​	Apr 3rd​	5,091​	Apr 12th​	2,673​	Apr 2nd​	5,821​
Apr 10th​	8,958​	Mar 27th​	9,134​	Apr 7th​	13,798​	Apr 4th​	5,532​	Apr 13th​	2,799​	Apr 3rd​	7,007​
Apr 11th​	9,875​	Mar 28th​	10,023​	Apr 8th​	14,555​	Apr 5th​	5,889​	Apr 14th​	2,969​	Apr 4th​	8,359​
Apr 12th​	10,612​	Mar 29th​	10,779​	Apr 9th​	15,238​	Apr 6th​	6,494​	Apr 15th​	3,254​	Apr 5th​	9,534​
Apr 13th​	11,329​	Mar 30th​	11,591​	Apr 10th​	15,843​	Apr 7th​	7,091​	Apr 16th​	3,569​	Apr 6th​	10,748​
Apr 14th​	12,107​	Mar 31st​	12,428​	Apr 11th​	16,353​	Apr 8th​	7,632​	Apr 17th​	3,868​	Apr 7th​	12,674​
Apr 15th​	12,868​	Apr 1st​	13,155​	Apr 12th​	16,972​	Apr 9th​	8,044​	Apr 18th​	4,110​	Apr 8th​	14,610​
Apr 16th​	13,729​	Apr 2nd​	13,915​	Apr 13th​	17,489​	Apr 10th​	8,598​	Apr 19th​	4,294​	Apr 9th​	16,466​
Apr 17th​	14,576​	Apr 3rd​	14,681​	Apr 14th​	18,056​	Apr 11th​	8,943​	Apr 20th​	4,404​	Apr 10th​	18,544​
Apr 18th​	15,464​	Apr 4th​	15,362​	Apr 15th​	18,579​	Apr 12th​	9,258​	Apr 21st​	4,598​	Apr 11th​	20,454​
Apr 19th​	16,060​	Apr 5th​	15,887​	Apr 16th​	19,130​	Apr 13th​	9,588​	Apr 22nd​	4,879​	Apr 12th​	21,936​
Apr 20th​	16,509​	Apr 6th​	16,523​	Apr 17th​	19,478​	Apr 14th​	10,129​	Apr 23rd​	5,094​	Apr 13th​	23,398​
Apr 21st​	17,337​	Apr 7th​	17,127​	Apr 18th​	20,043​	Apr 15th​	10,643​	Apr 24th​	5,321​	Apr 14th​	25,776​
Apr 22nd​	18,100​	Apr 8th​	17,669​	Apr 19th​	20,453​	Apr 16th​	11,060​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 15th​	28,214​
Apr 23rd​	18,738​	Apr 9th​	18,279​	Apr 20th​	20,852​	Apr 17th​	11,478​	​	​	Apr 16th​	30,355​
Apr 24th​	19,506​	Apr 10th​	18,849​	Apr 21st​	21,282​	Apr 18th​	11,842​	​	​	Apr 17th​	32,435​
Apr 25th​	​	Apr 11th​	19,468​	Apr 22nd​	21,717​	Apr 19th​	12,069​	​	​	Apr 18th​	34,178​
​	​	Apr 12th​	19,899​	Apr 23rd​	22,157​	Apr 20th​	12,513​	​	​	Apr 19th​	35,812​
​	​	Apr 13th​	20,465​	Apr 24th​	22,524​	Apr 21st​	12,900​	​	​	Apr 20th​	37,455​
​	​	Apr 14th​	21,067​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 22nd​	13,236​	​	​	Apr 21st​	40,082​
​	​	Apr 15th​	21,645​	Apr 26th​	​	Apr 23rd​	13,547​	​	​	Apr 22nd​	42,200​
​	​	Apr 16th​	22,170​	​	​	Apr 24th​	13,852​	​	​	Apr 23rd​	44,198​
						Apr 25th				Apr 24th	46,101

Note France announced cumulative batches of deaths for care/nursing homes from the 2nd of April and these have been left out for the time being as other countries don't count them and have not been released. 8393 in total. USA is official CDC, often reported in media are CDC + probable and John Hopkins + probable.
Disclaimer: Please make your own table or graph of your choosing if you don't like the starting point or whatever else, I've updated it and added other countries at user request but didn't start it.
​

The table shows what a good job Spain have done in getting the numbers down with a severe lockdown. They quickly outpaced Italy with double the numbers. France have done really well. UK were a little behind Italy but have overtaken and look on course to overtake Spain soon. Spain and Italy took around 6-7 days to reach a 400-600 range, UK is still trying to get there after 14 days. Looking like UK will be worst hit or joint worst hit with Italy.

Spain early on and at the peak had half of the cases in Madrid. While London is a hotspot for UK it only accounts for just under a quarter of cases last I looked recently and very early I remember seeing quite an even spread up to the far north, London 81, Manchester 32, Liverpool 18, Birmingham 40+ and so on. I think it can help if you can target one region. Not sure in France, I know the North Eastern area is the most affected and looks less spread out on the maps.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

To be honest, it's not that shocking from a physiological point of view. Shortness of breath and distress mainly hinges on accumulation of CO2 and a high work of breathing. We don't see these patients with abnormal PCO2 levels. They can get rid of that, albeit with a high required effort. Hypoxia usually causes respiratory distress if you're already accustomed to elevated PCO2 levels. I mean, you already know this so I'm not looking to educate you, just saying that it makes sense in a way.

Proning is a cornerstone in classic ARDS treatment, just that it's rare enough to have patients with such severe cases of ARDS since there's an underlying disorder that is treatable. Usually, the ARDS clears before you've exhausted all supine treatment options. In my ICU, I'd say that we have (ballpark figure) 15 patients in a year that require proning.

In moderate to severe ARDS, it halved the mortality from 32% to 16% in one RCT, which is quite a lot better than many other ICU treatments. The "two phenotypes of Covid-19" might be a thing or it may just be two phases of the same disorder, but in the ARDS-like state, it makes a lot of sense to prone the patients to improve ventilation/perfusion matching.

But yeah, regarding your main point, it's a weird fecking disease. I mean, we see people with the flu getting this bad but by the time you tube them the infection's already getting better so you only need to ride it out and let them recover from the effort of breathing. We've had patients in our ICU for nigh on three weeks now that look the same on their CXR as they did when they arrived.

That’a all really interesting. Please don’t worry about patronising me. I’ve never worked in ICU and haven’t worked in a hospital for nearly 20 years, so whatever I know about treating ARDS is only picked up in last few weeks and mainly from whatsapp group with friends from med school!

 

[Kopral Jono]

Why does the comment section on YouTube attract the worst kind of idiots? Right now I'm watching a video on corona vaccine development -- it's astonishing the sheer amount of anti-vax tripe being posted and the number of likes these posts get.

 

[giggs-beckham]

The reporting data is noisy, a few of us have tried smoothing it. My interpretation at the moment:

UK deaths peaked on the 9th-11th April (in terms of reporting).
The UK has declined steadily since then but slower than Spain or Italy. 10 days on from the peak, reporting was at ~80% of the peak (a reduction of ~15 deaths per day).
Continuing that trend linearly (a bad assumption), zero deaths would be reached in another 40-50 days. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, it is not accurate, but it does show an appreciable decline currently which is encouraging.
The decline won't be linear. If conditions stay the same, the gradient could increase or decrease in the short term, but in the long term countries are seeing slow exponential decay towards zero.

Ok thanks. Let's hope so, these declines appear to be so slow it's hard to know why.

 

[Wibble]

Why does the comment section on YouTube attract the worst kind of idiots? Right now I'm watching a video on corona vaccine development -- it's astonishing the sheer amount of anti-vax tripe being posted and the number of likes these posts get.

I keep hoping that it is how we round up those who will be first against the wall come the revolution.

 

[Adisa]

 

[BootsyCollins]

We could beat this virus, but instead some idiots are going to fuze it with stupidity and spread it around to everyone.

 

[Wumminator]

When football comes back I think some teams like Burnley and Stoke will get a “stand up for the NHS” chant going and I also think that there will be a minutes applause on say a certain minute to “honour” the dead.
That is my current thoughts on Corona.

 

[Withnail]

It's not a grammatical error, it's Headlinese.

Headlines have always been like this.

 

[horsechoker]

12 years?

 

[AaronRedDevil]

We could beat this virus, but instead some idiots are going to fuze it with stupidity and spread it around to everyone.

It's natural selection at this point. Let the idiots suffer the consequences.

 

[SirAnderson]

It's natural selection at this point. Let the idiots suffer the consequences.

Unfortunately, those idiots are going to infect the sensible individuals when they go home.

 

[Suedesi]

​

United Kingdom Dates​	UK Deaths​	Italy Dates​	Italy Deaths​	Spain Dates​	Spain Deaths​	France Dates​	France Deaths​	Germany Dates​	Germany Deaths​	USA Dates​	USA Deaths​
Mar 8th​	3​	Feb-23rd​	3​	Mar 5th​	3​	Mar 2nd​	3​	Mar 11th​	3​	Mar 1st​	2​
Mar 9th​	5​	Feb 24th​	7​	Mar 6th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	4​	Mar 12th​	5​	Mar 2nd​	6​
Mar 10th​	6​	Feb 25th​	11​	Mar 7th​	10​	Mar 4th​	4​	Mar 13th​	8​	Mar 3rd​	9​
Mar 11th​	8​	Feb 26th​	12​	Mar 8th​	17​	Mar 5th​	7​	Mar 14th​	8​	Mar 4th​	11​
Mar 12th​	10​	Feb 27th​	17​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 6th​	9​	Mar 15th​	12​	Mar 5th​	11​
Mar 13th​	11​	Feb 28th​	21​	Mar 10th​	36​	Mar 7th​	16​	Mar 16th​	12​	Mar 6th​	14​
Mar 14th​	21​	Feb 29th​	29​	Mar 11th​	55​	Mar 8th​	19​	Mar 17th​	12​	Mar 7th​	19​
Mar 15th​	35​	Mar 1st​	41​	Mar 12th​	86​	Mar 9th​	30​	Mar 18th​	12​	Mar 8th​	21​
Mar 16th​	55​	Mar 2nd​	52​	Mar 13th​	133​	Mar 10th​	33​	Mar 19th​	20​	Mar 9th​	26​
Mar 17th​	71​	Mar 3rd​	79​	Mar 14th​	196​	Mar 11th​	48​	Mar 20th​	31​	Mar 10th​	31​
Mar 18th​	104​	Mar 4th​	107​	Mar 15th​	294​	Mar 12th​	61​	Mar 21st​	47​	Mar 11th​	37​
Mar 19th​	144​	Mar 5th​	148​	Mar 16th​	342​	Mar 13th​	79​	Mar-22nd​	55​	Mar 12th​	41​
Mar 20th​	177​	Mar 6th​	197​	Mar 17th​	533​	Mar 14th​	91​	Mar 23rd​	86​	Mar 13th​	49​
Mar 21st​	233​	Mar 7th​	233​	Mar 18th​	638​	Mar 15th​	127​	Mar 24th​	114​	Mar 14th​	55​
Mar 22nd​	281​	Mar 8th​	366​	Mar 19th​	833​	Mar 16th​	148​	Mar 25th​	149​	Mar 15th​	62​
Mar 23rd​	335​	Mar 9th​	463​	Mar 20th​	1,093​	Mar 17th​	175​	Mar 26th​	198​	Mar 16th​	76​
Mar 24th​	422​	Mar 10th​	631​	Mar 21st​	1,381​	Mar 18th​	244​	Mar 27th​	253​	Mar 17th​	97​
Mar 25th​	468​	Mar 11th​	827​	Mar 22nd​	1,813​	Mar 19th​	372​	Mar 28th​	325​	Mar 18th​	123​
Mar 26th​	578​	Mar 12th​	1,016​	Mar 23rd​	2,207​	Mar 20th​	450​	Mar 29th​	389​	Mar19th​	175​
Mar 27th​	759​	Mar 13th​	1,266​	Mar 24th​	2,696​	Mar 21st​	562​	Mar 30th​	455​	Mar 20th​	230​
Mar 28th​	1,019​	Mar 14th​	1,441​	Mar 25th​	3,434​	Mar 22nd​	674​	Mar 31st​	600​	Mar 21st​	298​
Mar 29th​	1,228​	Mar 15th​	1,809​	Mar 26th​	4,145​	Mar 23rd​	860​	Apr 1st​	732​	Mar 22nd​	408​
Mar 30th​	1,408​	Mar 16th​	2,158​	Mar 27th​	4,858​	Mar 24th​	1100​	Apr 2nd​	872​	Mar 23rd​	519​
Mar 31st​	1,789​	Mar 17th​	2,503​	Mar 28th​	5,690​	Mar 25th​	1331​	Apr 3rd​	1,017​	Mar 24th​	681​
Apr 1st​	2,352​	Mar 18th​	2,978​	Mar 29th​	6,528​	Mar 26th​	1,696​	Apr 4th​	1,158​	Mar 25th​	906​
Apr 2nd​	2,921​	Mar 19th​	3,405​	Mar 30th​	7,340​	Mar 27th​	1,995​	Apr 5th​	1,342​	Mar 26th​	1,159​
Apr 3rd​	3,605​	Mar 20th​	4,032​	Mar 31st​	8,189​	Mar 28th​	2,314​	Apr 6th​	1,434​	Mar 27th​	1,592​
Apr 4th​	4,313​	Mar 21st​	4,825​	Apr 1st​	9,053​	Mar 29th​	2,606​	Apr 7th​	1,607​	Mar 28th​	2,039​
Apr 5th​	4,934​	Mar 22nd​	5,475​	Apr 2nd​	10,003​	Mar 30th​	3,024​	Apr 8th​	1,861​	Mar 29th​	2,431​
Apr 6th​	5,373​	Mar 23rd​	6,077​	Apr 3rd​	10,935​	Mar 31st​	3,523​	Apr 9th​	2,107​	Mar 30th​	2,985​
Apr 7th​	6,159​	Mar 24th​	6,820​	Apr 4th​	11,744​	Apr 1st​	4,032​	Apr 10th​	2,373​	Mar 31st​	3,806​
Apr 8th​	7,097​	Mar 25th​	7,503​	Apr 5th​	12,418​	Apr 2nd​	4,503​	Apr 11th​	2,544​	Apr 1st​	4,746​
Apr 9th​	7,978​	Mar 26th​	8,215​	Apr 6th​	13,055​	Apr 3rd​	5,091​	Apr 12th​	2,673​	Apr 2nd​	5,821​
Apr 10th​	8,958​	Mar 27th​	9,134​	Apr 7th​	13,798​	Apr 4th​	5,532​	Apr 13th​	2,799​	Apr 3rd​	7,007​
Apr 11th​	9,875​	Mar 28th​	10,023​	Apr 8th​	14,555​	Apr 5th​	5,889​	Apr 14th​	2,969​	Apr 4th​	8,359​
Apr 12th​	10,612​	Mar 29th​	10,779​	Apr 9th​	15,238​	Apr 6th​	6,494​	Apr 15th​	3,254​	Apr 5th​	9,534​
Apr 13th​	11,329​	Mar 30th​	11,591​	Apr 10th​	15,843​	Apr 7th​	7,091​	Apr 16th​	3,569​	Apr 6th​	10,748​
Apr 14th​	12,107​	Mar 31st​	12,428​	Apr 11th​	16,353​	Apr 8th​	7,632​	Apr 17th​	3,868​	Apr 7th​	12,674​
Apr 15th​	12,868​	Apr 1st​	13,155​	Apr 12th​	16,972​	Apr 9th​	8,044​	Apr 18th​	4,110​	Apr 8th​	14,610​
Apr 16th​	13,729​	Apr 2nd​	13,915​	Apr 13th​	17,489​	Apr 10th​	8,598​	Apr 19th​	4,294​	Apr 9th​	16,466​
Apr 17th​	14,576​	Apr 3rd​	14,681​	Apr 14th​	18,056​	Apr 11th​	8,943​	Apr 20th​	4,404​	Apr 10th​	18,544​
Apr 18th​	15,464​	Apr 4th​	15,362​	Apr 15th​	18,579​	Apr 12th​	9,258​	Apr 21st​	4,598​	Apr 11th​	20,454​
Apr 19th​	16,060​	Apr 5th​	15,887​	Apr 16th​	19,130​	Apr 13th​	9,588​	Apr 22nd​	4,879​	Apr 12th​	21,936​
Apr 20th​	16,509​	Apr 6th​	16,523​	Apr 17th​	19,478​	Apr 14th​	10,129​	Apr 23rd​	5,094​	Apr 13th​	23,398​
Apr 21st​	17,337​	Apr 7th​	17,127​	Apr 18th​	20,043​	Apr 15th​	10,643​	Apr 24th​	5,321​	Apr 14th​	25,776​
Apr 22nd​	18,100​	Apr 8th​	17,669​	Apr 19th​	20,453​	Apr 16th​	11,060​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 15th​	28,214​
Apr 23rd​	18,738​	Apr 9th​	18,279​	Apr 20th​	20,852​	Apr 17th​	11,478​	​	​	Apr 16th​	30,355​
Apr 24th​	19,506​	Apr 10th​	18,849​	Apr 21st​	21,282​	Apr 18th​	11,842​	​	​	Apr 17th​	32,435​
Apr 25th​	​	Apr 11th​	19,468​	Apr 22nd​	21,717​	Apr 19th​	12,069​	​	​	Apr 18th​	34,178​
​	​	Apr 12th​	19,899​	Apr 23rd​	22,157​	Apr 20th​	12,513​	​	​	Apr 19th​	35,812​
​	​	Apr 13th​	20,465​	Apr 24th​	22,524​	Apr 21st​	12,900​	​	​	Apr 20th​	37,455​
​	​	Apr 14th​	21,067​	Apr 25th​	​	Apr 22nd​	13,236​	​	​	Apr 21st​	40,082​
​	​	Apr 15th​	21,645​	Apr 26th​	​	Apr 23rd​	13,547​	​	​	Apr 22nd​	42,200​
​	​	Apr 16th​	22,170​	​	​	Apr 24th​	13,852​	​	​	Apr 23rd​	44,198​
						Apr 25th				Apr 24th	46,101

Note France announced cumulative batches of deaths for care/nursing homes from the 2nd of April and these have been left out for the time being as other countries don't count them and have not been released. 8393 in total. USA is official CDC, often reported in media are CDC + probable and John Hopkins + probable.
Disclaimer: Please make your own table or graph of your choosing if you don't like the starting point or whatever else, I've updated it and added other countries at user request but didn't start it.
​

The table shows what a good job Spain have done in getting the numbers down with a severe lockdown. They quickly outpaced Italy with double the numbers. France have done really well. UK were a little behind Italy but have overtaken and look on course to overtake Spain soon. Spain and Italy took around 6-7 days to reach a 400-600 range, UK is still trying to get there after 14 days. Looking like UK will be worst hit or joint worst hit with Italy.

Spain early on and at the peak had half of the cases in Madrid. While London is a hotspot for UK it only accounts for just under a quarter of cases last I looked recently and very early I remember seeing quite an even spread up to the far north, London 81, Manchester 32, Liverpool 18, Birmingham 40+ and so on. I think it can help if you can target one region. Not sure in France, I know the North Eastern area is the most affected and looks less spread out on the maps.

COVID-19 Cases, Deaths and New Deaths 1 week avg, normalized by country population

 

[Withnail]

A read in English on not so much the how's but the why's of the Swedish approach thus far.

https://bppblog.com/2020/04/23/the-swedish-exception/

(possibly written by @Regulus Arcturus Black)

Interesting to note it's not constitutionally possible for them to declare a state of emergency in peacetime so full lock down isn't actually enforceable over there.

Incidentally, does anyone know of a site which compares the current transmission rates? I couldn't find anything online and I think it would give a better indication of how the methods deployed in the different countries are working.

 

[Anustart89]

That’a all really interesting. Please don’t worry about patronising me. I’ve never worked in ICU and haven’t worked in a hospital for nearly 20 years, so whatever I know about treating ARDS is only picked up in last few weeks and mainly from whatsapp group with friends from med school!

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1214103

Here’s the 2013 article I mentioned if you’re interested. Only severe ARDS actually.

And if you’re interested in further material with regards to Intensive Care and anaesthesia, allow me to plug InterAnest shamelessly on youtube. A colleague of mine who pumps out educational material, some of which I am closely involved in. All videos are less than 7 minutes long. We’ll be releasing a video on proning in English in a few days.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1214103

Here’s the 2013 article I mentioned if you’re interested. Only severe ARDS actually.

And if you’re interested in further material with regards to Intensive Care and anaesthesia, allow me to plug InterAnest shamelessly on youtube. A colleague of mine who pumps out educational material, some of which I am closely involved in. All videos are less than 7 minutes long. We’ll be releasing a video on proning in English in a few days.

Cool. Thanks. Will read/check out your YT channel later. Just been listening to webinar arranged by our College of Physicians and the talk about serological response and post-infection immunity has got me on a massive downer. Need to take a break from covid chat for now!

 

[Damien]

Had the misfortune to have Pearson's nonsense crop up on my timeline. feck spreading it to other people, who cares about them? As long as you're alright, that is all that matters.

 

[horsechoker]

How do you unilaterally leave lockdown?

They do realise the lockdown can still be enforced upon them, they're just choosing to break the law.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Had the misfortune to have Pearson's nonsense crop up on my timeline. feck spreading it to other people, who cares about them? As long as you're alright, that is all that matters.

Hopefully her friends get unilaterally tasered and fined, idiots.

 

[Ish]

Had the misfortune to have Pearson's nonsense crop up on my timeline. feck spreading it to other people, who cares about them? As long as you're alright, that is all that matters.

Stupid is what stupid does.

 

[Drawfull]

Hopefully her friends get unilaterally tasered and fined, idiots.

Two of her household also have the virus. She's a stupid cow starved of attention. Only a couple of weeks ago she was writing how a selfish generation was going to kill people by ignoring the fecking lockdown.

 

[redshaw]

Interesting news from India where many said it would explode or they would be dying but unable to test.

"Parts of India have recorded dramatic falls in mortality rates after a nationwide lockdown was imposed to fight the new coronavirus, suggesting there has not been an undetected surge in virus-related deaths.

All over the world, mortality rates are being scrutinized to determine the true impact of the coronavirus, which emerged in China late last year and is known to have infected more than 2.7 million people globally, with nearly 190,000 deaths.
While death rates in some countries have risen sharply in recent weeks, in India the opposite seems to be happening, at least in some places, leaving hospitals, funeral parlors and cremation sites wondering what is going on.

“It’s very surprising for us,” said Shruthi Reddy, chief executive officer of Anthyesti Funeral Services, which operates in the eastern city of Kolkata and the southern tech hub of Bengaluru.
The company handled about five jobs a day in January but has only had about three a day this month.
“We’ve declared employee pay cuts if revenue falls below a threshold,” Reddy said.
Other numbers tell a similar story.

Central Mumbai, home to some 12 million people, saw deaths fall by about 21 percent in March compared with the same month of 2019, according to municipal data.
Overall deaths plummeted 67 percent in Ahmedabad, the biggest city in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, over the same period.

Data from at least two other cities, along with accounts from state health officials, show a similar pattern. Half a dozen funeral businesses and crematoriums also reported slumps in business, especially in April.
“If we’re not seeing an increase in deaths, the suspicion that there may be more COVID-19 fatalities out there is not true,” said Giridhar Babu, professor of epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India."

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1664226/world

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

If this is true does this mean no vaccination is possible?

On the BBC.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is "currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".

It has been suggested that people who survive an infection may develop antibodies that can attack the virus and prevent reinfection.

 

[Cardboard elk]

Interesting news from India where many said it would explode or they would dying but unable to test.

"Parts of India have recorded dramatic falls in mortality rates after a nationwide lockdown was imposed to fight the new coronavirus, suggesting there has not been an undetected surge in virus-related deaths.

All over the world, mortality rates are being scrutinized to determine the true impact of the coronavirus, which emerged in China late last year and is known to have infected more than 2.7 million people globally, with nearly 190,000 deaths.
While death rates in some countries have risen sharply in recent weeks, in India the opposite seems to be happening, at least in some places, leaving hospitals, funeral parlors and cremation sites wondering what is going on.

“It’s very surprising for us,” said Shruthi Reddy, chief executive officer of Anthyesti Funeral Services, which operates in the eastern city of Kolkata and the southern tech hub of Bengaluru.
The company handled about five jobs a day in January but has only had about three a day this month.
“We’ve declared employee pay cuts if revenue falls below a threshold,” Reddy said.
Other numbers tell a similar story.

Central Mumbai, home to some 12 million people, saw deaths fall by about 21 percent in March compared with the same month of 2019, according to municipal data.
Overall deaths plummeted 67 percent in Ahmedabad, the biggest city in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, over the same period.

Data from at least two other cities, along with accounts from state health officials, show a similar pattern. Half a dozen funeral businesses and crematoriums also reported slumps in business, especially in April.
“If we’re not seeing an increase in deaths, the suspicion that there may be more COVID-19 fatalities out there is not true,” said Giridhar Babu, professor of epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India."

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1664226/world

Interesting. Maybe they are still early phase. Can not fathom India not being hit hard by this there being so high density of people, million cities and 1,4b people.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

If this is true does this mean no vaccination is possible?

On the BBC.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is "currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".

It has been suggested that people who survive an infection may develop antibodies that can attack the virus and prevent reinfection.

Think it means they don't know yet.And no guarantee second infection as bad.

Too early, guessing yet

 

[Wibble]

If this is true does this mean no vaccination is possible?

On the BBC.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is "currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".

It has been suggested that people who survive an infection may develop antibodies that can attack the virus and prevent reinfection.

If people didn't develop antibodies almost all those infected would have died. Or maybe all.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

If people didn't develop antibodies almost all those infected would have died. Or maybe all.

Nope. You can fight off infection without generating any kind of meaningful antibody response. In fact, that seems to be quite common in the very mild/asymptomatic cases. Also in children.

 

[One Night Only]

If this is true does this mean no vaccination is possible?

On the BBC.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is "currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".

It has been suggested that people who survive an infection may develop antibodies that can attack the virus and prevent reinfection.

I would take that with a pinch of salt. WHO just don't want to get it seriously wrong so theyre covering their bases. If there isn't a vaccine / antibodies they can claim they were right, if there is a vaccine / antibodies then they can say "well, better safe than sorry".

 

[0le]

What do you think of the advice about 1.5m or 2m spacing?

I don't have a background in evaporation or biology so I can't say much about whether the distance could be larger or even smaller.

Obviously there is still risk at those distances but how much do you think it reduces the risk?

I think I can say it will almost certainly reduce the risk. How much the risk reduces with distance I don't know, and I don't think you can answer that very easily. But generally the further you stand from an individual, the greater opportunity you give for the droplets to lose all the initial energy they attain from the sneeze.

You can think of this like water being ejected from a hose when you are cleaning the car or gardening. If you put your finger right near the nozzle of the hose, all the water will hit your finger. Now move your finger away from the nozzle. Less water will hit your finger because the water has lost some of the pressure energy and also it has dispersed outwards away from the central axis of the hose pipe.

Continuing the analogy, the greatest distance the water travels from your hose pipe depends on:
- how much you turn the tap on therefore giving more energy to the water (analogous to how violently someone sneezes)
- The angle relative to the horizontal in which you hold the hose which determines the initial direction of the water (analogous to the tilt in someones head at the moment they release the droplets when they)
- Whether or not it is windy

Remember, we have not considered evaporation in this argument.

Is it appropriate advice?

As I said earlier, I can't really say much about the specific distance, but it is definitely going to help - I can't see how it won't. I have no doubt we will see people argue the distance could be further, but really it is like answering "how long is a piece of string" simply because it is difficult to consider each and every different environmental circumstance in which someone sneezes e.g. they sneeze at home with air con off, they sneeze at home with air con on, with windows open/closed etc.

But one can simplify these problems (e.g. using non-dimensional numbers) and talking to people with the right knowledge. A lot of people have experience in both dispersion and heat transfer problems associated with droplets. Examples include:
- combustion industry such as injecting sprays of fuel droplets into hot turbulent gas inside an engine
- cloud physics where you study rain formation in clouds, where rainwater can disperse, freeze (snow) or perhaps evaporate as well
- industrial processes like spray drying whereby you dry liquid droplets into fine powder within turbulent gasses
- atmospherical scientists who may study droplet emission problems, rather than just solid particles

So we have the people and the knowledge to come up with answers. I hope that the people in biology do tap into that experience.

EDIT: Added the bit in bold.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

If this is true does this mean no vaccination is possible?

On the BBC.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that there is "currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection".

It has been suggested that people who survive an infection may develop antibodies that can attack the virus and prevent reinfection.

I was listening to someone talk about this, this morning. Some of the best know coronaviruses cause the common cold. They’ve done research on previous coronavirus strains where they try to re-infect people a year after previous infection. The bad news is that most of them got infected all over again. The good news is that most of them didn’t get any symptoms.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Cool. Thanks. Will read/check out your YT channel later. Just been listening to webinar arranged by our College of Physicians and the talk about serological response and post-infection immunity has got me on a massive downer. Need to take a break from covid chat for now!

Can’t. Stay. Away...

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

If people didn't develop antibodies almost all those infected would have died. Or maybe all.

If catching this virus doesn't prevent you from catching it again and becoming infectious again then wouldn't that mean there is no herd immunity?

 

[TheGame]

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Can’t. Stay. Away...

I try and fail every day.

I know I might be a bit doom and gloom but we are months into this crisis and we still don't know enough to rule out the truly catastrophic (as if this isn't bad enough).

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Cummings would be a hugely convenient fall guy here. The bodges are possibly his fault anyway but could be a get out of jail free card for Boris.

 

[gormless]

Can’t. Stay. Away...

If it helps, I know myself and the vast majority of others in the thread (I can’t speak for that religious nutter) hugely appreciate your input, whether your own opinion or stuff you’ve heard, for example the webinar you listened to this morning.

 

[jymufc20]

If it helps, I know myself and the vast majority of others in the thread (I can’t speak for that religious nutter) hugely appreciate your input, whether your own opinion or stuff you’ve heard, for example the webinar you listened to this morning.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

If catching this virus doesn't prevent you from catching it again and becoming infectious again then wouldn't that mean there is no herd immunity?

Yes. It would become endemic. One of those viruses we just have to live with. There’s a reasonable chance of this happening. Although the fact that repeat infections will likely be very mild means severe cases will become more and more rare.

 

[711]

Can’t. Stay. Away...

If it helps, I know myself and the vast majority of others in the thread (I can’t speak for that religious nutter) hugely appreciate your input, whether your own opinion or stuff you’ve heard, for example the webinar you listened to this morning.

I agree, and would add that Pogue inspired me to get a pulse oximeter off Amazon. It was only £23 and well worth that for a bit of reassurance, so thanks Pogue.

A bit puzzled by the results though, I run or walk seriously every day and my figure is 95%, but my somewhat sedentary and overweight missus is 97%. Stick thin daughter is 100% and slim and fit son 95% like me. I get the idea is to know your own level and only worry if it drops significantly from that but I still find the results annoying. Lower than the Mrs, good grief.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I agree, and would add that Pogue inspired me to get a pulse oximeter off Amazon. It was only £23 and well worth that for a bit of reassurance, so thanks Pogue.

A bit puzzled by the results though, I run or walk seriously every day and my figure is 95%, but my somewhat sedentary and overweight missus is 97%. Stick thin daughter is 100% and slim and fit son 95% like me. I get the idea is to know your own level and only worry if it drops significantly from that but I still find the results annoying. Lower than the Mrs, good grief.

The cheapy ones like you got (and I got!) are a bit flaky. Could be something as simple as the skin on your finger being a bit thicker?