SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Revan]

When everyone says Vaccine I hope you all understand that it will be a nano microchip.

Sarcasm?

 

[Wibble]

Nope. You can fight off infection without generating any kind of meaningful antibody response. In fact, that seems to be quite common in the very mild/asymptomatic cases. Also in children.

How does a body fight off an infection without an immune response? Other than with drugs? And how do we know mild cases didn't result in an immune response?

Children will be interesting to get to the bottom of. Did they not get it at all or was the virus far less able to attack them or ??????

 

[JMack1234]

Why can B & Q open but garden centres can't?

I get dragged around a garden centre more often than I'd like and the ones I've been to are large establishments who'd be able to implement social distancing easily.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You may be right to an extent but my cousin was one of the ones I heard from in Donegal and she was raging that there was suddenly an influx

Fair enough. I’m sure she’d know if there were any blow-ins.

Mind you, I don’t think there’s been any community acquired cases in Cork/Done

First it was hydroxychloroquine, then remdesivir, then nicotine (in france). Now it is:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jacob-glanville-antibody-neutralize-coronavirus

Says he hopes to begin trials in September.

Heard someone today describe it as basically two different illnesses. The initial phase when your immune system tries to fight the virus, then a second phase (the one that can kill) when the immune system turns on itself.

Right now all the clinical trials are in very sick patients i.e. in second phase. Drugs that fail at treating second phase may still have a use earlier in the disease, to delay viral spread within your body, or reduce shedding which infects other people.

Basically, more trials needed. Three words that get repeated every time anyone discusses any treatment option.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

How does a body fight off an infection without an immune response? Other than with drugs? And how do we know mild cases didn't result in an immune response?

Children will be interesting to get to the bottom of. Did they not get it at all or was the virus far less able to attack them or ??????

Not all immune responses involve antibodies. Google “cell mediated immunity”.

Mild cases can test positive by PCR testing a swab, without ever generating a serological positive i.e. blood test for antibodies

Kids are an enigma. No idea if they’re avoiding infection, or shaking it off quickly.

 

[Tincanalley]

How does a body fight off an infection without an immune response? Other than with drugs? And how do we know mild cases didn't result in an immune response?

Children will be interesting to get to the bottom of. Did they not get it at all or was the virus far less able to attack them or ??????

Interesting debate! I am utterly ignorant but enjoying your posts.

 

[Wibble]

Not all immune responses involve antibodies. Google “cell mediated immunity”.

Mild cases can test positive by PCR testing a swab, without ever generating a serological positive i.e. blood test for antibodies

Kids are an enigma. No idea if they’re avoiding infection, or shaking it off quickly.

I thought that while this was a primary method of removing virus infected cells that is was also accompanied by antibody production? I think I had it in my head that these both happened at the same time. One thing that gives me hope that there is an immune response is that so few reinfections have been reported. So few that they could easily all/most be false positives followed by infection or positive, false negatives (and still ill) followed by a positive test and/or immunity compromised patients.

I have it in my head that detection of antibodies can often only be possible some time after infection - I have 8 weeks in my head but no idea where that figure came from. Maybe that was detecting an adaptive response or something else?

If the mild cases are dealt with before an immune response is triggered a vaccine is even more vital (assuming we are successful).

 

[Wibble]

Interesting debate! I am utterly ignorant but enjoying your posts.

It was a genuine question which Pogue is now talking about.

If cell mediated immunity is fighting off without antigens being produced (and I really hope this isn't the case) we will need a vaccine to get back to normal. And countries that have let the virus go in hope of herd immunity that way will have made a very bad choice.

 

[Devil_forever]

I don’t ever post ITK stuff, but this has been relayed to me by someone who has the inside track on this, here goes:

Oxford Vaccine trial volunteers experiencing more side effects than expected apparently. Chris Witty apparently wasn’t very optimistic about how it’s looking so far, is what I’ve been told. I’m sure this will leak eventually and honestly I’ll take a permanent ban if it turns out to be bullshit.

I’d be happy to PM the mods as to who I’ve got this from.

 

[sammsky1]

I've said this before but it's because it's not a lockdown. It's too relaxed. I still know so many people who dont think it's a big deal.

Wuhan literally bolted people in their houses and it took them 6 weeks to get it under control. Italy has been a step below that and almost 2 months later is just about confident the peak is behind them. The UK will take much longer as long as everybody takes their hour (and the rest) exercise every day and nobody is around to enforce the rules on people who ignore them.

The area around St Johns Wood, Regents Park and Camden Town had a joyous carnival type atmosphere today. Was quite shocking, frustrating and yet predictable. It’s no wonder that UK numbers are amongst the worst in the world.

Everyone is very dismissive of China’s numbers. Let’s assume they were 100% out of actuality; fact remains they have dealt with this crisis better socially and economically than any other large populous nation. And all that without benefit of other countries experience.

I still don’t understand the UK a strategy: it’s neither a shutdown nor a herd immunity play. And the middle ground seems like the worst way to go.

What UK is doing is clearly not working, and yet the public seems docile and accepting. Don’t get it.

 

[Globule]

Why can B & Q open but garden centres can't?

I get dragged around a garden centre more often than I'd like and the ones I've been to are large establishments who'd be able to implement social distancing easily.

Where are you based? My mother works in British Garden Centres (formerly Wyevale) and they're planning to open soon. They're already doing deliveries and from next week they're planning to open up a bit more for click and collect.

 

[Wibble]

I wonder if this is true? If so it is good news that 20% of NY has already produced antibodies

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

 

[One Night Only]

Fair enough. I’m sure she’d know if there were any blow-ins.

Mind you, I don’t think there’s been any community acquired cases in Cork/Done


Heard someone today describe it as basically two different illnesses. The initial phase when your immune system tries to fight the virus, then a second phase (the one that can kill) when the immune system turns on itself.

Right now all the clinical trials are in very sick patients i.e. in second phase. Drugs that fail at treating second phase may still have a use earlier in the disease, to delay viral spread within your body, or reduce shedding which infects other people.

Basically, more trials needed. Three words that get repeated every time anyone discusses any treatment option.

So as bad as all these trials are going, they're really for the very sick? However we could trial on the less sick and these same drugs could work?

It would then be about catching cases early enough if said trials work?

 

[Wibble]

I don’t ever post ITK stuff, but this has been relayed to me by someone who has the inside track on this, here goes:

Oxford Vaccine trial volunteers experiencing more side effects than expected apparently. Chris Witty apparently wasn’t very optimistic about how it’s looking so far, is what I’ve been told. I’m sure this will leak eventually and honestly I’ll take a permanent ban if it turns out to be bullshit.

I’d be happy to PM the mods as to who I’ve got this from.

I think you have suitably warned about the source of your information. It isn't a suprise as this is what happens in trials and why we do them. It can take a while.

 

[Wibble]

So as bad as all these trials are going, they're really for the very sick? However we could trial on the less sick and these same drugs could work?

It would then be about catching cases early enough if said trials work?

I think the antivirals and other already approved drugs are tending to be trialed on the worst affected but I'm assuming the vaccine trials are following normal protocols of testing on fit younger people first.

 

[JMack1234]

Where are you based? My mother works in British Garden Centres (formerly Wyevale) and they're planning to open soon. They're already doing deliveries and from next week they're planning to open up a bit more for click and collect.

I'm based in Yorkshire.

I'm sure they'll open soon, I think a lot businesses will open soon actually. Personally I think it was a totally nonsensical bovine move to close Garden Centres to start with. It seems doubly unfair that Garden Centres are still closed whilst B & Q are opening up.

 

[Revan]

I don’t ever post ITK stuff, but this has been relayed to me by someone who has the inside track on this, here goes:

Oxford Vaccine trial volunteers experiencing more side effects than expected apparently. Chris Witty apparently wasn’t very optimistic about how it’s looking so far, is what I’ve been told. I’m sure this will leak eventually and honestly I’ll take a permanent ban if it turns out to be bullshit.

I’d be happy to PM the mods as to who I’ve got this from.

Shame if it is true, but I haven't heard anything about the other vaccines in trials (some for more than a month). At the end of the day, we need one or two vaccines, so as long as one succeeds, the others failing won't be a big problem.

 

[Revan]

I wonder if this is true? If so it is good news that 20% of NY has already produced antibodies

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

Numbers match up. 0.1% of New York City citizens have died from the virus. If 20% are already infected, it means that there is a 0.5% mortality rate which seems just about right (in trut, it is probably slightly a bit higher because of under-reported deaths).

 

[JMack1234]

I spoke to the bank manager the other day.

He said that Burger King are planning to re-open all their outlets in a couple of weeks (he should know as the franchises in my area bank with him) and that the railways have been told to get ready to operate an increased service from early May. (Not as good a source but still fairly convincing)

The point is, it looks like we're going to have a moderate relaxation of the lockdown when this current stretch is up.

 

[One Night Only]

Numbers match up. 0.1% of New York City citizens have died from the virus. If 20% are already infected, it means that there is a 0.5% mortality rate which seems just about right (in trut, it is probably slightly a bit higher because of under-reported deaths).

So if you apply that maths the UK what would the infection rate be? As in how many do we expect to have been infected already?

 

[Wibble]

Numbers match up. 0.1% of New York City citizens have died from the virus. If 20% are already infected, it means that there is a 0.5% mortality rate which seems just about right (in trut, it is probably slightly a bit higher because of under-reported deaths).

I guess it also depends on how reliable the antibody testing is. I saw some suggestion that false positives and positives due to exposure to other coronaviruses may have confounded the results.

But if we are seeing significant antibody production this is very good news.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Wasn't they on the verge of collapse beforehand ?

Yep. They're a kid who keeps coming back for extra pocket money. Bloody socialist corporations. Or something

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Not all immune responses involve antibodies. Google “cell mediated immunity”.

Mild cases can test positive by PCR testing a swab, without ever generating a serological positive i.e. blood test for antibodies

Kids are an enigma. No idea if they’re avoiding infection, or shaking it off quickly.

Knowing kids they probably smoke two packs a day.

 

[Cloud7]

PM announced today that we'll have two more weeks of full lockdown then they will reassess. Part of me thinks he's just trying to keep the population optimistic (our population love false hope), but I think the lockdown has a while to go yet. We've managed it quite well thus far, but the fact of the matter is we simply don't have the resources to be able to deal with an exponential increase in cases as has happened in other countries, so even though it might be painful, I think our lockdown will, and SHOULD continue.

 

[Revan]

So if you apply that maths the UK what would the infection rate be? As in how many do we expect to have been infected already?

Just multiply number of deaths with 200 (if you assume 0.5% deathrate) or with 100 (if you assume 1% death rate). So probably somewhere around two to four million.

 

[Wibble]

Knowing kids they probably smoke two packs a day.

 

[milemuncher777]

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[Wibble]

Interesting. Maybe they are still early phase. Can not fathom India not being hit hard by this there being so high density of people, million cities and 1,4b people.

There could also be random luck involved if they managed to lock down before mass community transmission occurred. Although I fear they haven't seen the worst yet.

 

[berbatrick]

Had the misfortune to have Pearson's nonsense crop up on my timeline. feck spreading it to other people, who cares about them? As long as you're alright, that is all that matters.

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[redshaw]

This is what I keep seeing from Germany for weeks and people there keep saying it's not German people keeping the numbers low, also illegal hairdressing salons have been raided.

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I can only think of huge testing and contact tracing so those that do get tested positive take isolation seriously while others don't. If there's any hope in loose lockdowns/ light restrictions it's 100k+ a day testing and going to homes of known contacts of positives and testing them too. Meeting the virus head on instead of waiting for it to turn up at the hospital can be a way of keeping the economy going and helping not stretch the wards.

 

[sglowrider]

Just finished watching Contagion. Very scarily accurate.

Who is the Trump equivalent character in it?

 

[Wibble]

Who is the Trump equivalent character in it?

The virus?

 

[Wibble]

This is what I keep seeing from Germany for weeks and people there keep saying it's not German people keeping the numbers low, also illegal hairdressing salons have been raided.

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I can only think of huge testing and contact tracing so those that do get tested positive take isolation seriously while others don't. If there's any hope in loose lockdowns/ light restrictions it's 100k+ a day testing and going to homes of known contacts of positives and testing them too. Meeting the virus head on instead of waiting for it to turn up at the hospital can be a way of keeping the economy going and helping not stretch the wards.

Bizarre behavior. Just fecking stay home.

Many Sydney beaches have been closed and reopened for exercise only a few days ago but people can't behave themselves so they are now closed again. My local go to exercise is the Bay Run around part of the harbor in Drummoyne/Lilyfield and it is almost unusable due to an influx of feckwits who can't socially distance and block the bike and walking/running lanes for everyone. Largely from other suburbs which is causing tensions especially as the response to polite requests to not walk 5 abreast is often a tirade of abuse.

 

[711]

Bizarre behavior. Just fecking stay home.

Many Sydney beaches have been closed and reopened for exercise only a few days ago but people can't behave themselves so they are now closed again. My local go to exercise is the Bay Run around part of the harbor in Drummoyne/Lilyfield and it is almost unusable due to an influx of feckwits who can't socially distance and block the bike and walking/running lanes for everyone. Largely from other suburbs which is causing tensions especially as the response to polite requests to not walk 5 abreast is often a tirade of abuse.

Just the same here on my regular running routes. Hundreds of cyclists 4 and 5 abreast giving no room to pass safely, or coming from behind only inches away. Obviously not from the same households either, so cycling together if one has the virus they all will, and their real households too. And photographers, just standing around oblivious to everyone else. So I'm off for my walk now, just as dawn is breaking.

 

[Wibble]

Just the same here on my regular running routes. Hundreds of cyclists 4 and 5 abreast giving no room to pass safely, or coming from behind only inches away. Obviously not from the same households either, so cycling together if one has the virus they all will, and their real households too. And photographers, just standing around oblivious to everyone else. So I'm off for my walk now, just as dawn is breaking.

It is the walkers that are the problem in my case as there aren't that many cyclists (why I used to cycle there) but these feckwits happily block the bike and walking lanes. Twats.

 

[sglowrider]

The virus?

Probably the waste product.

 

[Shakesy]

So far I don't think there has ever been a virus that our immune system didn't respond to. There are odd edge cases e.g. HIV which attacks the immune system and Dengue fever, where a second infection sometimes occurs and is then worse than the first infection. In the later case this is not because there is a lack of immune response. It is because sometimes, much later, when a person's immunity has begin to reduce the antibodies aren't enough to defeat the virus in a second infection but do bind to it enough to help spread it. This is the only virus that we have seen this for and there is now a vaccine that will make this irrelevant anyway.

What WHO is warning against most recently is issuing certificates to people who have had COIVD as if they are immune for life before we know what the immune response actually is. A very responsible and appropriate course of action IMO.

Our immune response to this virus is what ultimately kills us.

 

[Shakesy]

Who is the Trump equivalent character in it?

Matt Damon's left testicle.

 

[clarkydaz]

Just finished watching Contagion. Very scarily accurate.

i watched it at start of the lockdown and couldnt believe they made a film about how this is playing out, 10 years ago

 

[Wibble]

Our immune response to this virus is what ultimately kills us.

I think there is some suggestion that cytokine storm is killing some people but I think there are many other factors not immune response related - could be wrong.