SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

DomesticTadpole

Doom-monger obsessed with Herrera & the M.E.N.
Joined
Jun 4, 2011
Messages
101,237
Location
Barrow In Furness
Tbf according to Chris Whitty the UK's R(0) number is somewhere between 0.5 and 1. If so then a lot of people have definitely been abiding by lockdown properly.

Immediately blaming the UK public seems strange to me. Like all other publics, they have to be managed through a crisis like this. If that doesn't happen (or indeed even if there are bad outcomes despite that happening) then I would be inclined to look at the government's actions, timing and messaging first and ask if that's where the fault lies.
Where I live people have been pretty well behaved. Most have only gone out when allowed.
 

noodlehair

"It's like..."
Joined
Apr 1, 2004
Messages
16,352
Location
Flagg
Think it might have something to do with not being here legally? Cant claim furlough if they're not in the system. Also cash in hand jobs a lot of them will work too I'd expect even if here legally. So no paper trail for them to claim anything, they'll need to work to survive, at the same time, if they aren't here legally it really should be they're sent where ever their legal residence is?
I think that's a factor definitely. Even those here legally will in many cases have been in jobs where furlough wont be much help. It doesn't explain wandering around the streets in large groups or having your mates round every evening though. There's also a clear lack of respect for the system there...all it's really doing is giving the Farage mob some actual ammunition.

I'm firmly on the other side of the fence but it's ahrd to find a defence for being in the middle of a public health related lockdown, and seeing 50+ eastern Europeans just willfully ignoring it every time I go for a run, and maybe 5-10 British people doing the same...and they tend to be the ones who I'm not even sure if they are British as it'll be a woman with her kids rather than 10+ people shouting loudly to each other in a group, directly in my fecking way.
 

DomesticTadpole

Doom-monger obsessed with Herrera & the M.E.N.
Joined
Jun 4, 2011
Messages
101,237
Location
Barrow In Furness
Anyone work in a supermarket? I can't understand why they've stopped the 24 hour thing. At first I thought it was to stock up at night due to selling out of allsorts.

Now their isn't really panic buying, I thought 24 hours would be better for the flow rate going through the shops?

Or is it still a case of stock up during closing hours to keep stockers away from public during it all? Keeping shifts apart, only risking half their staff at a time?
That's what I thought as well. You can get most stuff now, paracetamol is still in short supply, but the thing I really want is flour etc to bake, so does every household in the country apparently.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

New Member
Joined
Jul 10, 2013
Messages
16,946
If that's not essential, nothing is.
ours has been coming every 2 days for a fortnight now, essential my arse
It annoys me how many people still don't understand the rules in the UK. Going to work (where you can't work from home) is, in itself, regarded as essential - it doesn't matter what the work entails. I don't think that Ice Cream men (and women) can work from home!
 

One Night Only

Prison Bitch #24604
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Messages
30,816
Location
Westworld
Brilliant.

A video of some wankers on a bridge circulated on Twitter. A Chinese restaurant opening (which is within the guidelines) near you. Companies that you know are working in spite of the circumstances - haven’t you wondered why that might actually be?

The demographic assumption is interesting; I’m 27 next month. What you say doesn’t ring true to me. I run and cycle regularly and my anecdotal opinion is that the vast majority of people I see out and about are older. Little Doris taking a doozy to the SPAR for her Daily Mirror. Lots of them. But I’m not going to tar every Little Doris with the same brush as my perception might be totally different to yours, or anyone else’s.

I’m looking at the hard numbers: public transport levels, road usage, school numbers etc. The public has overwhelmingly complied with the guidance and I don’t think that is up for debate. Yes, there are people who haven’t but be rational about it.

Compliance is going to drop, however. Primarily because some people are starting to feel the financial burn. They need to return to work and they will do so I and when the guidance allows them to.
I understand what you're saying, but in regards to school numbers, schools are only accepting kids with key worker families or special needs so bound to drop, it's not actually by choice. Public transport is a decent shout, alot due to working from home and a lack of tourism.
 

Jericholyte2

Full Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2004
Messages
3,580
Well we’ve just had a fecking ice cream van pull up on our street.

No contactless payment, no distancing, nothing!

Joke of a ‘lockdown’!
 

Alabaster Codify7

New Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2015
Messages
6,553
Location
Wales
It annoys me how many people still don't understand the rules in the UK. Going to work (where you can't work from home) is, in itself, regarded as essential - it doesn't matter what the work entails. I don't think that Ice Cream men (and women) can work from home!
Exactly.
Unless we see marked improvement in figures by June 1st and lockdown is eased we're possibly going to see anarchy. The rent and mortgage freezes end in June. Good luck 'forcing' people to stay home when the alternative is homelessness. I don't think anyone needs to break down what people will do if the safety of their children is on the line, the virus will come a STRONG second to homelessness in terms of risks people are willing to take.
 

Sied

I..erm..love U2, baby?
Joined
Nov 28, 2013
Messages
10,332
I've just been reading into Sweden's case. I notice they have a 69% death rate in their closed cases vs an average of 20%.

Is this because they are only testing those who clearly have coronavirus? Or because they include nursing home deaths? Or some other reason?
 

Cardboard elk

Full Member
Joined
Jan 9, 2019
Messages
697
Supports
Rosenborg
Just read that Solomon Samba, Montpellier player in Ligue 1 in France, and 23 years old, is in induced coma due to covid-19. So strange how some really fit young people get really sick from this.
 

Arruda

Love is in the air, everywhere I look around
Joined
Apr 8, 2009
Messages
12,584
Location
Azores
Supports
Porto
I'm not a fan of lockdown, but my point is if everyone could have just stuck to it for a few weeks, and done what the guidance said, we wouldn't be in a forever loop of lockdown which from the stats is looking likely for the foreseeable.
Your point is nonsensical, what are you trying to imply? That the virus would be gone if everyone just followed the guidelines?
 

Alabaster Codify7

New Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2015
Messages
6,553
Location
Wales
Just read that Solomon Samba, Montpellier player in Ligue 1 in France, and 23 years old, is in induced coma due to covid-19. So strange how some really fit young people get really sick from this.
It's no different from a very healthy person dying during a marathon though.its a freak occurrence, some people have hidden defects
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
There's no point relying on the information from Wuhan as nothing about any of what China have reported tallies up with what's going on anywhere else...and you can't "bolt people in their homes" as you'll kill 10x more than the virus ever will.

The problem here has been a lack of any kind of planning at all. We implemented a plan based on nothing more than a flimsy piece of science estimating how the virus spreads, and at a point where we had no idea at all how many people already had it, so even that piece of science was missing half the equation.

We have a random lunatic running the government using another random lunatic as a puppet. Our "Chief Medical Officer" has offered nothing approaching any kind of scientific insight. He is the same man who argued the best way to combat ebola was to "encourage" people who have it to go and die together in death camps (there's even a link to a paper he literally wrote arguing this on his Wikipedia page). Sweden, Germany etc. were putting scientists in charge and listening to experts while we were relying on a bunch of chancers who more resemble a group of Apprentice contestants fumbling around trying to pretend they aren't just half brained car salesmen. Other countries were making plans while these idiots were still concerning themselves with championing Brexit and child like dramatic attention seeking. That is why we are in this position

Other factors to consider:
- There have been over 5,000 "additional" deaths in the first 2 weeks in April, which can't be linked to corona virus...the most likely contributing factor to these deaths is the "relaxed" lockdown measures, as you call them. Implementing more strict measures with a health and welfare system that the government has purposely run down has the very realistic risk of these deaths OVERTAKING the number dying from corona virus...and at that point you can bet the media will start taking notice rather than just ignoring it, and then we'll have chaos.
- A few people sunbathing in a park actually has very little impact on how much the virus spreads. Shops and supermarkets have a much bigger impact and unfortunately people need to buy food and stuff in order to not die. Another thing having a very big impact is the government not supplying PPE equipment to medical staff who they are LEGEALLY REQUIRED to provide it to.
- The whole plan has never been about preventing anyone from dying or even particularly minimising it. We waited far too long for that. It's been about allowing the NHS to cope with the inevitable mess, and it somehow seems to have worked so far. We'll be going past the total number dead in Italy soon enough so it's pointless worrying about that. It doesn't account for differences in recording numbers or population levels. I've seen credible reports suggesting the number dead in Italy is actually up to three times that they've reported, because they simply weren't able to keep up or find room for everyone in a hospital. That has not happened here and we should actually be quite grateful for that I think. Especially considering what a poor job our government has made of it. People in the actual healthcare sector and those that have helped provide extra equipment and facilities have done a very good job.

Regardless I suspect the numbers are going to reach a point where Cummings and his gang of lunatics aren't really going to have anything to hide behind. Blame the public all you want but if the public aren't listening it's because they don't trust the people in charge.
Another consequence of school closures which I heard on the radio today is that vulnerable children are trapped as schools are generally the body which reports suspected neglect and abuse to social services. The consequences of lockdown are vast and serious.

I think society is starting to move out of a lockdown mentality. A lot of the borderline essential services businesses that chose to shut out of choice are getting ready to open again.

I had to be on the road to do a few things for work yesterday and saw one group of 20 lads aged 14-16 walking down the street. It was the first time I’d seen such a blatant breach of the rules. People on my street have been breaking the rules, having cups of tea in their gardens with visitors and so on all through the lockdown. I have too to some extent but I’ve had to do stuff for work and have been in more shops than I should when out. By and large movement has decreased a massive amount but most are taking liberties here and there from my own anecdotal experience.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

I pity the poor fool who stinks like I do!
Joined
Apr 15, 2015
Messages
10,252
Location
Blitztown
Why does the comment section on YouTube attract the worst kind of idiots? Right now I'm watching a video on corona vaccine development -- it's astonishing the sheer amount of anti-vax tripe being posted and the number of likes these posts get.
Get a browser extension that removes comments from all websites.

Whitelist any sites that have value in comments (I don’t have any sites whitelisted)
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
It's no different from a very healthy person dying during a marathon though.its a freak occurrence, some people have hidden defects
You do not know if he had any hidden defects so that is pure speculation.
I read that the thinking was that such cases were being caused by a very strong immune system going into overdrive.
 

Sied

I..erm..love U2, baby?
Joined
Nov 28, 2013
Messages
10,332
Exactly.
Unless we see marked improvement in figures by June 1st and lockdown is eased we're possibly going to see anarchy. The rent and mortgage freezes end in June. Good luck 'forcing' people to stay home when the alternative is homelessness. I don't think anyone needs to break down what people will do if the safety of their children is on the line, the virus will come a STRONG second to homelessness in terms of risks people are willing to take.
Rent and mortgage freezes would no doubt be extended in that scenario.
 

Cardboard elk

Full Member
Joined
Jan 9, 2019
Messages
697
Supports
Rosenborg
I read that the thinking was that such cases were being caused by a very strong immune system going into overdrive.
Yes, also many other theories, I did a quick search on this now, and found these two articles, where genes are one of the things they look at, also the immune system as you mention :

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/how-sick-will-coronavirus-make-you-answer-may-be-your-genes
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-are-some-young-healthy-people-getting-severe-covid-19/

Anyway, it seems indications will take months to find, and facts regarding this topic will take years of study.
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,304
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
What is needed is better research and testing rather than childish blame games where the person being blamed is "the general public"...basically saying it's people's fault for existing. If that's the case we might as well have no lockdown measures and carry on as normal.
That's where I'm at, as well. I'm not seeing this mass groups of idiots breaking the social distancing guidelines. If anything, I'm conscious that a large number of older people and people with other health conditions (but not in the government notified "highest risk" group) - have decided the "don't leave the house for 12 weeks" guidance applies to them as well.

What I'm also personally aware of is the impact on my family and friends. Two of whom died late March/early April - pre lockdown infections.

But two have died this week - in both cases they were getting treatment (one as a cancer outpatient, the other admitted after a stroke). In both cases they almost certainly picked up the virus at the hospital - as they really hadn't been anywhere or seen anyone from outside the household except in hospital.

As I'm an optimist I actually hope that means we'll see the numbers decline soon - as staff recover and become (hopefully) immune. And of course as PPE and procedures catch up with the challenge of how to support people who need to go to hospital with a serious condition, but who are now immensely vulnerable to an even quicker killer.
 

Skills

Snitch
Joined
Jan 17, 2012
Messages
42,100
The longer you wait to implement a 'lockdown' the longer it will take for the daily deaths to come down to that lower level. The UK waited until the last moment possible and now will have to pay for it, by being locked down for longer if it wants to get those daily deaths down to the 2-300s.
 

Hugh Jass

Shave Dass
Joined
Apr 16, 2016
Messages
11,298
I dont believe this lockdown will be good enough in it's current form. My local town seems busy still. It also has big signs up saying 'Check in on your 5 nearest neighbour's'
'Let's get Frome covered'
Yea i am seeing a lot of people out chatting to each other when i was cycling today. I am based in ireland.
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
The longer you wait to implement a 'lockdown' the longer it will take for the daily deaths to come down to that lower level. The UK waited until the last moment possible and now will have to pay for it, by being locked down for longer if it wants to get those daily deaths down to the 2-300s.
Theres a two week lag on care home deaths which went up significantly in the past couple of weeks too. The death rate will stay high because those will be added In the next couple of weeks.

I think new hospital admissions would be the one to look at now but I’m not sure if that available.

edit: found hospital admissions up to the 22nd which have been falling since the 3rd April but rose a little in the last 2 days of this chart.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ile/880848/COVID19_Weekly_Report_22_April.pdf


Doesn’t stop them getting the ferry to Ireland at Easter
They could have Irish passports.
 
Last edited:

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,932
Location
France

Just stumbled across this on YouTube which I found interesting in itself but thst then prompted me to look on www.flightradar24.com and I was amazed by the number of planes still in the air right now.
I don't know why but this video really makes me realize how big this is. Air traffic is the embodiment of globalism and capitalism but for the most part it has stopped for almost a month now.
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
4,361
Location
Germany
500 people demonstrating against current restrictions and for constitutional rights in Stuttgart today. The city tried to ban it but Germany's Supreme Court overruled them. A general ban on demonstrations had been lifted and the country has seen a number of (mostly small) rallies this week about all sorts of things.

 

Hugh Jass

Shave Dass
Joined
Apr 16, 2016
Messages
11,298
This according to Michael Osterholm is just the first wave of four or five waves till it goes away, either through a vaccine or 70% of people get infected.
 

11101

Full Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
21,317
Pritti doing a lot of blaming the public today. Distraction tactics.
Shes got a point.

Do the public really need to have a close family member die to take this seriously? The big countries in Europe all recognised the seriousness early on and people didnt need to be told to keep their distance. In the UK people have not slowed down anywhere near as much as those other countries - this data is available now. I dont understand why people cant take responsibility instead of blaming the government for every little thing.

The attitude feels closer to the US than to Europe. People like Katie Hopkins saying we are overreacting in the press...and being listened to by some. In Europe she would not even be given a platform.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

I pity the poor fool who stinks like I do!
Joined
Apr 15, 2015
Messages
10,252
Location
Blitztown
The UK populace has entered states of isolation and has restricted access to usual services. So yes, it is.
Not if people attempt to compare the UK to anywhere else.

The reason the rates are still so high is because there is no lockdown.

Spain and Italy have seen large reductions in cases as their measures to beat infection rates were better.

The UK is a shitshow of bad information, poor leadership and loosely followed orders.
 

RedTiger

Half mast
Joined
Oct 6, 2013
Messages
23,037
Location
Beside the sea-side, Beside the sea.

Hound Dog

Full Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2011
Messages
3,211
Location
Belgrade, Serbia
Supports
Whoever I bet on
I am no longer concerned with when the vaccine will be available because, as things stand, the majority of people in Serbia will refuse to get it an will start a civil war if it is made mandatory.

So great to be living in the enlightenment of the 21st century.
 

Mr Pigeon

Illiterate Flying Rat
Scout
Joined
Mar 27, 2014
Messages
26,338
Location
bin
Stopped by my mum's to check on her because she hasn't been answering her phone or responding to texts for the last 2 days and didn't have any neighbour's phone numbers. She's fine, she's lost her bloody phone. But her neighbours were in their back garden having a booze up with their extended family. Got back to my house and our neighbours were just getting in their car all dressed up clutching a couple of bottles of plonk. Folk are bloody muppets.