SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

SalfordRed18

Netflix and avocado, no chill
Joined
Sep 24, 2012
Messages
14,060
Location
Salford
Supports
Ashwood City FC
Does it not piss anyone of that a cleaner or nanny can come into your house but your parent cant?

Sort of sums of the difference between a memeber of parliament and your run of the mill househould
Give ya ma a fiver and it's all good.
 

RedRover

Full Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2007
Messages
8,952
Employers will have to make a contribution to their furloughed employees' salaries, from the start of August. The government will no longer be footing the bill (or at least, not all of it).

Furloughed employees will also be able to be brought back, part-time.
Employers (many of whom are making a contribution in any event) who can't afford to then make people redundant. The whole point of the Scheme (as the name suggests) is "job retention", i.e. retaining a contractual link between employee and employer to avoid massive unemployment.
 

Massive Spanner

Give Mason Mount a chance!
Joined
Jul 2, 2014
Messages
28,193
Location
Tool shed
Does it not piss anyone of that a cleaner or nanny can come into your house but your parent cant?

Sort of sums of the difference between a memeber of parliament and your run of the mill househould.

Edit just to clarify, dont think either should be allowed at the minute
Not an issue for me, your mum still comes to my house all the time.sorry not sorry
 

Massive Spanner

Give Mason Mount a chance!
Joined
Jul 2, 2014
Messages
28,193
Location
Tool shed
Second now, according to bbc. Because most of the country doesn't believe the thing is real. Also government are under reporting deaths which makes people think it's a fairly mild illness - which it isn't.
Really, where did you see that?

Not arguing it, just curious. is it due to state propaganda to downplay it or something?
 

Jippy

Sleeps with tramps, bangs jacuzzis, dirty shoes
Staff
Joined
Nov 19, 2009
Messages
57,444
Location
Jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams
Pains me to say it but Sunak is coming across very well during the questions he’s facing at the moment.

The difference between him and Boris is night and day.
Been busy and only skimmed the FT and Sun's reports. Seemed lacking in detail though, eg how the government/employer split changes from after July?
 

0le

Full Member
Joined
Dec 25, 2017
Messages
5,806
Location
UK
Having said that, in trying to simplify the topic, am I right in saying the theme of that article is correct? Ignoring the specific assertions within it to speed and extent of disputation, I think the main point of the article being to demonstrate what factors increase virus spread at a high level remain relatively salient?
Was there any element of it you particularly disagreed with?
To be honest I always read blogs/articles like that with a high degree of scepticism. Even with that and potential inaccuracies - the droplet analysis seemed simplistic - I don't think it would've detracted from the author's overall point on the transmission risk and measures that would help. But you're right to be warning people (laymen like me) and would be keen to know if you have any more thoughts on it.
Broadly I think the article sounds reasonable, I just think more attention is needed explaining certain things. It is a simplistic article but this is absolutely fine and I believe this should always be the approach for teaching people, regardless of their background. Sometimes you can "dumb" down information to an extent that it actually becomes incorrect so you need to be careful.

At the very least I'd say the author should clarify the droplet sizes. Saying droplets are large and small means different things for different people. A person studying nanodroplets will consider 1nm sized droplets small and 1um droplets large. But a person studying spray systems may thing 1um is small and 100um is large.

Generally it is fine to talk about general physical concepts without reference but, for example, when you start talking about droplets going 200mph you probably should add references to that.

The author needs to make it clearer in some parts that the droplets won't all be travelling at the same velocity. They have done in some parts, but not in others. Even if the droplets are all the same size (this seems unlikely to me), same sized droplets may move at different speeds. If the droplets have different sizes they can move with different velocities. This is discussed [here] although the focus of the paper is collisions and not dispersion.

One comment didn't make much sense to me:
A single breath releases 50 - 5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly.
You can't really state any claim like this without knowing a lot more information like the size of the droplets. Even so, "Droplets with a lower velocity" may settle more slowly, not more quickly. This is because a) they may have a smaller velocity component in the direction of gravity and b) I believe they will lose more quickly any of that initial momentum they had from an individual breathing. I would also never qualitatively characterise droplet dispersion by just the droplet velocity. If you want to characterise (qualitatively) the dispersion, you use non-dimensional numbers. Stokes number and terminal velocity ratio (settling parameter) are two that I have come across. Some authors use non-dimensional numbers which don't have a specific name.

I don't believe the example about the restaurant is explained very well. For example, downwind and upwind mean specific things. Actually I think people use "upstream" and "downstream" more frequently. If you have airflow over an object, upstream means any flow ahead (or prior) to that object. Downstream means any flow behind that object e.g. its wake. At least that is my understanding of the terms. Maybe that is not correct but it has not failed me in the past. So I am not sure what the author means by upwind here. If you also look at that room, it is 6m across so I would guess that close physical contact would also be an issue here.

A passing comment - I don't like the author saying droplets can spread across entire rooms or "within seconds" etc. It can happen sure, but there will be instances where it may not happen and really you need to assess each area individually rather than make sweeping comments like this. This may be a situation where simulations can help - modelling rooms like boxes and tracking how far one droplet travels with various configurations. But high quality simulations like this may not be computationally feasible.

My opinion is that each area is different and needs its own risk assessment. But generally companies should favour ventilation, social distancing as much as possible and minimal face-to-face or group meetings. But I think this is obvious information.

This basically makes you a Jesus of the topic compared to the rest.

Please deliver a short layman sermon on how much distance is appropriate and how well masks work. I will follow you in anything from here on out.
People have different backgrounds in different topics. There are plenty of people who specialise in multiphase flows. I can't give an informed answer on what you've asked because I don't have a background in evaporation effects. I also haven't studied many different air flows. Since there will be a variety of different indoor areas, there will be many different air flows and so how droplets disperse in those rooms may differ. I've looked at one very specific niche flow case which isn't relevant here and one laboratory flow which you would not encounter very often. I've explained my understanding of some of the physical concepts [here] but it won't give the answer you want.
 

Rado_N

Yaaas Broncos!
Joined
Apr 6, 2009
Messages
111,149
Location
Manchester
Been busy and only skimmed the FT and Sun's reports. Seemed lacking in detail though, eg how the government/employer split changes from after July?
He said full guidance on the additional flexibility etc will be made available towards the end of the month.

The ability to phase people back being the major part of that, and he was asked if it could be brought in sooner to help those employers who have some work but not enough to bring people back full time. His response was that he didn’t think it would be possible to make the required alterations to the scheme earlier and didn’t want to commit but if they could manage it they would.
 

Paxi

Dagestani MMA Boiled Egg Expert
Joined
Mar 4, 2017
Messages
27,678
Really, where did you see that?

Not arguing it, just curious. is it due to state propaganda to downplay it or something?
Friends and family live in Russia. All of them are doubting from whether this thing exists at all to how serious the illness is. Bizarre really.
 

BobbyManc

Full Member
Joined
Aug 2, 2012
Messages
7,750
Location
The Wall
Supports
Man City
Pains me to say it but Sunak is coming across very well during the questions he’s facing at the moment.

The difference between him and Boris is night and day.
Sunak, regardless of your political views, cannot be accused of not treating his responsibility as chancellor with the respect it demands. I think even people who already dislike Johnson would be surprised if they knew how much contempt he displays for his duties as a politician, be it as a mayor, cabinet minister or PM.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

I pity the poor fool who stinks like I do!
Joined
Apr 15, 2015
Messages
10,258
Location
Blitztown
Ok, that’s more like it.

And it’s possible I’ve misrepresented NZ’s strategy. I don’t think total eradication was their goal. It is more or less what’s happened though. For which they deserve huge credit.

My general point is that I think there might be a sweet spot in terms of community transmission where you get a slow steady increase of people exposed over the next several years. You don’t need the 60-70% of your population exposed that you need for herd immunity to put a big dent in the size of your second and subsequent waves. The difference between 30% immune and 5% could be huge in terms of being able to get through future waves without a complete lockdown again

Basically, I worry that countries with closed borders and single digit prevalence will have a much higher chance of needing to go into lockdown again in the future than those who’ve been a little less successful at flattening the curve this time round.
Every country should seek to eradicate before they seek herd immunity. It’s not always possible but it’s always desirable

That just means less people are dead, and die.

I can write like a blunt knife at times. But it’s not rudeness.

With so many countries fcuking this up, groupthink sees us move towards the common, rather than the successful.

Think how nice it would be to live in the UK and hear;

- Only 21 have died
- This virus is only deadly To [THIS] demographic.
- We ask that citizens outside of this group are protected, and protect themselves.
- Everyone else: Here’s a track and track app. This is what we do if you get sick, this is how we test. Work with us.

The majority populace is being told : You are safe enough. We can treat you if you get sick. Try not to. Don’t infect the vulnerable. But we’re in this together.

NZ will drip feed group transmission and immunity. Because they’ve nailed the initial stage and the people trust their government.

Honestly man, I worried for NZ. I’ve said this throughout. It’s a tiny outpost of the world with few people to rely on. But they’re pretty much the global leader in Covid management so far.

To close this Opus... I must have 100-200 people on ignore on this site. You’re a good egg. Don’t let my confronting put me in your asshole column. I’m a good egg.
 

Jippy

Sleeps with tramps, bangs jacuzzis, dirty shoes
Staff
Joined
Nov 19, 2009
Messages
57,444
Location
Jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams
He said full guidance on the additional flexibility etc will be made available towards the end of the month.

The ability to phase people back being the major part of that, and he was asked if it could be brought in sooner to help those employers who have some work but not enough to bring people back full time. His response was that he didn’t think it would be possible to make the required alterations to the scheme earlier and didn’t want to commit but if they could manage it they would.
Ah, fair enough, thanks. I guess it is complicated and far from a one size fits all thing. I'd certainly cut him more slack than say Hancock. Sunak must be about the only minister with his reputation intact or even enhanced.
 

Massive Spanner

Give Mason Mount a chance!
Joined
Jul 2, 2014
Messages
28,193
Location
Tool shed
Friends and family live in Russia. All of them are doubting from whether this thing exists at all to how serious the illness is. Bizarre really.
Not surprising. It was the case in many of the worst hit countries when they were in a similar position. Infections rising exponentially but deaths still low. Most people don't really start to give a shit until the numbers make them.
 

BobbyManc

Full Member
Joined
Aug 2, 2012
Messages
7,750
Location
The Wall
Supports
Man City
Our children’s children will thank us for this when they’re still trying to pay it off. 80% is simply unsustainable.
I think our children’s children will be more likely to complain about the climate that’s increasingly trying to kill them and the repercussions of that, rather than lamenting a decision to prolong a furlough scheme at an 80% rate for a few months in 2020 during a pandemic.
 

TheReligion

Abusive
Joined
Nov 22, 2006
Messages
51,465
Location
Manchester
Not enough for murder for sure, but enough for manslaughter, no?

Manslaughter doesn't require premeditation or intent.
Possibly. An unlawful act resulting in death. You'd have to prove it was that very act that caused the death mind and there was no break in the chain of causation.
 

Dante

Average bang
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
25,280
Location
My wit's end
Does it not piss anyone of that a cleaner or nanny can come into your house but your parent cant?

Sort of sums of the difference between a memeber of parliament and your run of the mill househould.

Edit just to clarify, dont think either should be allowed at the minute
Employ your parent to be your cleaner.
 

Mr Pigeon

Illiterate Flying Rat
Scout
Joined
Mar 27, 2014
Messages
26,339
Location
bin
I tell you; I understand why garden centres were reopened. Our back garden was a total mess and the last week out of work hours we've all been chipping in and now it's only a slight mess with lots of pretty bulbs planted and the weeds have been told to get fecked. The impact it's made to our attitudes has been quite something to witness. Feeling down and out? Pop in to the back garden and take a break.

Next on my selfish things I want reopened; McDonald's drive throughs and the return of the breakfast wrap.
 

buchansleftleg

Full Member
Joined
Aug 27, 2014
Messages
3,722
Location
Dublin, formerly Manchester
The support for care homes is just shambolic. I know someone who runs a care home. The other day they made arrangements for testing all their residents as thankfuly they have not lost anyone yet.

They got all their residents up extra early (6.30am) which is quite a laborious task given their complex needs, so that all the tests could be completed and done within one morning. The tests were never picked up and after 2 days had to be thrown out as they were no good anymore. The home has had staff "living in" for several weeks to keep the residents safe and we can't sort out testing for them.

Anyone who has lost a relative where they have not been given adequate protective equipment or testing should sue for damages. Appaling behaviour!
 

Kentonio

Full Member
Scout
Joined
Dec 16, 2013
Messages
13,188
Location
Stamford Bridge
Supports
Chelsea
The support for care homes is just shambolic. I know someone who runs a care home. The other day they made arrangements for testing all their residents as thankfuly they have not lost anyone yet.

They got all their residents up extra early (6.30am) which is quite a laborious task given their complex needs, so that all the tests could be completed and done within one morning. The tests were never picked up and after 2 days had to be thrown out as they were no good anymore. The home has had staff "living in" for several weeks to keep the residents safe and we can't sort out testing for them.

Anyone who has lost a relative where they have not been given adequate protective equipment or testing should sue for damages. Appaling behaviour!
Wow, that's shocking. Government really needs to be held accountable for this mess.
 

DoomSlayer

New Member
Joined
Jun 20, 2019
Messages
4,875
Location
Bulgaria
Tomorrow is the official end of the state of emergency in my country. Hopefully more areas can go back to some sort of normality, as it has already been happening in some parts of the everyday life.
 

Buster15

Go on Didier
Joined
Aug 28, 2018
Messages
13,501
Location
Bristol
Supports
Bristol Rovers
Pains me to say it but Sunak is coming across very well during the questions he’s facing at the moment.

The difference between him and Boris is night and day.
Not that difficult to spend billions of someone else's money during an emergency.

We will see how clever he is when he has to be far more prudent with the budget.
 

Volumiza

The alright "V", B-Boy cypher cat
Joined
Jul 13, 2018
Messages
13,552
Location
Somewhere in the middle
C
I tell you; I understand why garden centres were reopened. Our back garden was a total mess and the last week out of work hours we've all been chipping in and now it's only a slight mess with lots of pretty bulbs planted and the weeds have been told to get fecked. The impact it's made to our attitudes has been quite something to witness. Feeling down and out? Pop in to the back garden and take a break.

Next on my selfish things I want reopened; McDonald's drive throughs and the return of the breakfast wrap.
Heathen! The only breakfast from McD's is the double sausage and egg mcmuffin! They released how to replicate them online a few weeks ago, I did it a couple of weekends ago and fecking nailed it!

Garden centres is a decent idea. For those lucky enough to have gardens they are definitely a cabin fever vaccine. I've never been much of a gardener, it's an itchy, scratchy hayfever inducing and wasp infested affair but I'm really loving it now.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,535
Looks like my driving range has opened back up, opening every other bay and disinfecting balls and baskets after each use.

It's tempting but to get to get to and from bays it's not easy to avoid others and nearly everyone there is at risk.
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
4,361
Location
Germany
Events with up to 1000 people are allowed again in my state from Friday. As well as cinemas, theatres, outdoor pools and even outdoor concerts.
 

VP89

Pogba's biggest fan
Joined
Dec 6, 2015
Messages
31,647
The way I see it, it's a positive thing because the virus was around in December-January but only a limited amount of people got it while we weren't extremely vigilant, so it may not be as contagious as I thought two months ago. In theory if we reopen totally when the virus doesn't circulate much we should be able to identify clusters quickly and take the appropriate measures, we just need to be more efficient when it comes to testings and people need to show some common sense and have higher hygene standards.
Cheers, that's one way of seeing it. I can see where you're coming from here.

Any ideas why the death rate is still barely falling here in UK?
 

Suedesi

Full Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2001
Messages
23,880
Location
New York City
That isn’t watertight, which is why most countries are enforcing 14 day quarantines. Someone who has only just been exposed to the virus might not test positive until a few days after getting infected
I see - was under the impression that tests have been developed that can tell you results within a few hours (maybe China or South Korea had developed one, I could be wrong). If you need to quarantine guests for 14 days, you can kiss business travel and tourism goodbye
 

Suedesi

Full Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2001
Messages
23,880
Location
New York City
We imported lots of cases that tested positive after arrival. That is why we have a compulsory 14 day hotel quarantine under police guard for anyone arriving internationally or traveling interstate - with most such travel banned.
So unless more accurate and faster tests can be developed than I can see non-essential travel doomed for the foreseeable future. A bunch of airlines might go under (thanks Donald for the useless bailouts).
 

SalfordRed18

Netflix and avocado, no chill
Joined
Sep 24, 2012
Messages
14,060
Location
Salford
Supports
Ashwood City FC
I think our children’s children will be more likely to complain about the climate that’s increasingly trying to kill them and the repercussions of that, rather than lamenting a decision to prolong a furlough scheme at an 80% rate for a few months in 2020 during a pandemic.
/r/MurderedByWords
 

Foxbatt

New Member
Joined
Oct 21, 2013
Messages
14,297
WHO says positive data from some treatment of covid19 though still they have not discovered anything to kill the virus.