Yes, manslaughter as a minimum, hope the person gets prosecuted.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
England can be the guinea pigs for the rest of the UK from tomorrow then. You guys go and get the population out and about for the next few weeks and we can all watch with hands over our faces to see if the infection level spikes like crazy.
We can work backwards. We know roughly how many people have had it over the last couple of months, when it was first detected, and what the R0 has been during that time. It's not difficult to get a broad estimate of the numbers present before it was detected and it's certainly not in the thousands.
One caveat is that hospitals got overwhelmed when a large number of elderly people got infected.
69% of Germany's cases were among those aged 15-59, so their overall hospitalisation % was 18%. In New York, 57% of cases were over 65. Among those aged 18-44, the hospitalisation rate was 16%, while for those 65+ it was 64%.
Germany's hospital capacity and testing infrastructure put it in a very strong position to deal with a crisis, but one of the main reasons they didn't have a crisis is the simple fact that large numbers of those 65+ didn't get infected. The vast majority of them didn't need to be hospitalised. It's possible that happened in other countries on a smaller scale in the lead up to the pandemic classification.
It isn't that easy. You're forgetting how unreliable these tests are, i.e., false negatives. With 80 % sensitivity (which I think it's optimistic) 4 % of infected will still be missed even with two tests. You then subject them to a long-ass quarantine and are still risking running to the extreme of the curves in terms of long incubations and late symptoms.
Obviously all this would diminish immensely the number of infected entering the country, but eventually a few will slip.
I don't think it's realistic for Island territories to completely isolate themselves from the vírus without a lot of logistical nightmares. In the case of somewhere like Azores a lot of patients of other disease will suffer if they don't leave (as they are cared by specialists that travel in regularly) and many industry would be fecked in a few months, as advanced machines, etc, need maintenance from specialized technicians and engineers who also travel in (and they won't if there's a 28-day quarantine waiting for them).
Some people in here still believe we can get back to "normal" without restrictions at an internal level, I don't think that's doable. We'll have to take the same precautions as continental Portugal, or perhaps a little more lax if we screen hard the incomers. That's tourism dead though, our major export.
I agree - I honestly dont think things will be totally 'normal' again for several years. Social distancing is here to stay.
But what's the scientific reasoning to suggest many people did not get the virus with mild symptoms? Patients admitted into ICU would be those who received far worse symptoms but this is not reflective of a lot of covid cases. So many people were down with staple covid symptoms without any testing, because they weren't so bad that they needed to go into hospital.
This is a murder case, and I hope they find and prosecute the perpetrator to fullest extent of the law.
With the amount of surveillance in the UK if this man doesnt end up facing a long sentence it will be a farce.
I don't get your point?
These two categories happened at the same time, you can estimate one based on the other. If you add the mild symptoms, in France for example you would have maybe 600k-800k people that have had the virus which isn't a lot when we are talking about limiting a second wave.
The pace of re-opening has been accelerated in Italy, after a meeting last night between the PM and bosses of the regions (where some pressure was applied, evidently). I'm not sure about it, personally. I know the cities want to get the restaurants fully open and the seaside resorts want to get going, but I think it's too early after the relaxing of restrictions on May 4th. It was originally going to be the beginning of June for bars, restaurants, hairdressers etc.
From the Guardian:
From the Guardian:
They must be desperate to start doing business again but it will be short lived if infections increase again. This was going to happen eventually, the world has to try and coexist with virus.
Sure I understand this and agree, if the numbers modeled are accurate. I'm not trying to be a skeptic for the sake of it, I guess what I'm trying to say is, how the heck can leading scientists assume how many people were experiencing mild symptoms of covid retrospectively? It's sort of impossible to get a gauge of. When I look around my own social bubbles, I can think of many who may well have had the covid itself when they had body aches or bad flus, but they won't know until accurate antigen tests are out to the public.
Even if only 10% of people who get the virus end up in hospital (a low estimate), it would not take long for it to be noticed in hospital admissions. Consider South Korea who by most accounts knew about almost every case in their country, within 2 weeks they went from essentially zero to thousands of cases. You could not hide the hundreds of pneumonia-like admissions that would result.
Lombardy will decide on Thursday whether to follow that or stick with the original plan, but i agree with you it is too soon. We need another week to see what effect the May 4 relaxations have had.
My own little test that has proved fairly reflective of the situation so far is how many sirens i hear going down the main road towards the hospital near my house. It has begun to increase again in the last couple of days.
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There's plenty of evidence from previous outbreaks such as SARS and now from nations doing mandatory masks, it's just not rigorous but then neither is our entire modelling or 99% of research at the moment so it's selective bias. It should be fairly common sense that with enough uptake it has a preventative effect and there's a lot of backing from health experts for them.
I'm fairly confident Whitty has said no such thing btw. He's reiterated evidence is weak and they're looking at it from a point of view of trade off withthe focus on those who need it. My guess is you've read a Tory MP misquote him.
Again, you know that it's roughly accurate because when symptomatic people are tested only roughly 10% are positive. The people around you that have had symptoms most likely had the flu or a cold because only 1 out of 10 with symptoms have had Covid-19.
Thats his point. Go from London to belfast, drive to dublin, no quarantine.
Go from london to dublin, quarantine.
So its effectively pointless because anyone with a bit of sense would do option 1 id they want to go to Ireland
Go from london to dublin, quarantine.
So its effectively pointless because anyone with a bit of sense would do option 1 id they want to go to Ireland
Manslaughter at the very least if they can find the cnut
There is no evidence they're of any benefit in preventing infections, but there is lots of evidence that they prevent you spreading anything you might have.
The aim of making everybody wear them is not to stop you getting it, it's to stop you unknowingly spreading it if you do have it.
Disgusting, you'd hope that person can be put in jail for a long time.. I know it's spitting but he knew what hew as doing and in this climate there has to be a consequence to it.
Okay, fair enough. In which case I understand its extremely unlikely that a material number of people have had covid, enough to prevent a second wave at least. Ruined my day now thanks
The whole thing is disgusting but sadly near impossible to prove an intent to kill or cause serious harm needed for murder. You'd have to be able to prove they a) knew they had coronavirus and b) intended to kill her or cause serious harm.
Makes for an interesting case mind.
Have our official numbers definitely gone up to 40,000 now then? Do we think this will wake some up to the monumental cock up this country made?
The way I see it, it's a positive thing because the virus was around in December-January but only a limited amount of people got it while we weren't extremely vigilant, so it may not be as contagious as I thought two months ago. In theory if we reopen totally when the virus doesn't circulate much we should be able to identify clusters quickly and take the appropriate measures, we just need to be more efficient when it comes to testings and people need to show some common sense and have higher hygene standards.Okay, fair enough. In which case I understand its extremely unlikely that a material number of people have had covid, enough to prevent a second wave at least. Ruined my day now thanks
Even then, you can’t prove either way that she didn’t contract it elsewhere. I clearly have no idea about law though.
Yeah exactly, especially given her job.
We imported lots of cases that tested positive after arrival. That is why we have a compulsory 14 day hotel quarantine under police guard for anyone arriving internationally or traveling interstate - with most such travel banned.
Yes 40k now, the care home situation is really bad, it exploded in April and is still running high. Protecting the elderly is something the country has failed to do.
a) should be pretty easy. If they had a test, saw a doctor or maybe even just called 111 it's pretty hard to argue otherwise.
I wouldn't say easy but you'd have to prove that yes. Then move on to prove the mens rea and then the actus reas.
We do not know if the R0 is 3 or 5+
In the report, a) is proven, in that the person who spat at the worker said that he had coronavirus, b) you could definitely prove he was reckless in his conduct with a) in mind which could substitute malice aforethought - possibly not enough for murder, but definitely enough for manslaughter.
I think this is how air travel will work but tests pre boarding. If you pass you can board, if not you go back home and self isolate. Now it's just about separating passengers in terminals
Are you sure about that? The UK doesn't publish it but i'd be amazed if they didn't know it. Other countries certainly do.
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Cheers for the links.
To be honest I always read blogs/articles like that with a high degree of scepticism. Even with that and potential inaccuracies - the droplet analysis seemed simplistic - I don't think it would've detracted from the author's overall point on the transmission risk and measures that would help. But you're right to be warning people (laymen like me) and would be keen to know if you have any more thoughts on it.
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Fair play to them on this one. Have stated that no changes to the % for now too.
From everything I've read it is far from certain. Certainly not less than 3 but likely much higher.
Most likely between 3.9 and 8.9 - which makes herd immunity without a vaccine even more insane.
Yeah agreed.