TheGame
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Yes, manslaughter as a minimum, hope the person gets prosecuted.Surely that becomes murder
Yes, manslaughter as a minimum, hope the person gets prosecuted.Surely that becomes murder
We can work backwards. We know roughly how many people have had it over the last couple of months, when it was first detected, and what the R0 has been during that time. It's not difficult to get a broad estimate of the numbers present before it was detected and it's certainly not in the thousands.Yeah that is what is baffling about claims that 'most people have already had it and had gone symptomless'. We know what happened in Italy, Spain, New York or UK when cases started piling up, hospitals got full quickly and the curve for positive tests started climbing up. Barring some incredible coincidence, which would have happened in all countries simultaneously, there's just no chance that a lot of people had got it before late Feb/early Mar outbreak.
One caveat is that hospitals got overwhelmed when a large number of elderly people got infected.Yeah that is what is baffling about claims that 'most people have already had it and had gone symptomless'. We know what happened in Italy, Spain, New York or UK when cases started piling up, hospitals got full quickly and the curve for positive tests started climbing up. Barring some incredible coincidence, which would have happened in all countries simultaneously, there's just no chance that a lot of people had got it before late Feb/early Mar outbreak.
It isn't that easy. You're forgetting how unreliable these tests are, i.e., false negatives. With 80 % sensitivity (which I think it's optimistic) 4 % of infected will still be missed even with two tests. You then subject them to a long-ass quarantine and are still risking running to the extreme of the curves in terms of long incubations and late symptoms.Surely NZ/AUS can screen any passenger that comes into their country? If you come in through airports you can submit to a test at your country of origin and by the time you land (assuming it's a long ass flight) your results should be ready. If negative, you're allowed in, if not the whole plane gets quarantined and dealt with.
It's expensive and cumbersome, but it can be done - not to mention cheaper than the alternative (which would presumably be quarantining the whole country again).
I agree - I honestly dont think things will be totally 'normal' again for several years. Social distancing is here to stay.It isn't that easy. You're forgetting how unreliable these tests are, i.e., false negatives. With 80 % sensitivity (which I think it's optimistic) 4 % of infected will still be missed even with two tests. You then subject them to a long-ass quarantine and are still risking running to the extreme of the curves in terms of long incubations and late symptoms.
Obviously all this would diminish immensely the number of infected entering the country, but eventually a few will slip.
I don't think it's realistic for Island territories to completely isolate themselves from the vírus without a lot of logistical nightmares. In the case of somewhere like Azores a lot of patients of other disease will suffer if they don't leave (as they are cared by specialists that travel in regularly) and many industry would be fecked in a few months, as advanced machines, etc, need maintenance from specialized technicians and engineers who also travel in (and they won't if there's a 28-day quarantine waiting for them).
Some people in here still believe we can get back to "normal" without restrictions at na internal level, I don't think that's doable. We'll have to take the same precautions as continental Portugal.
But what's the scientific reasoning to suggest many people did not get the virus with mild symptoms? Patients admitted into ICU would be those who received far worse symptoms but this is not reflective of a lot of covid cases. So many people were down with staple covid symptoms without any testing, because they weren't so bad that they needed to go into hospital.The prevalence of the virus was either lower or equivalent otherwise ICUs would have been swamped way before lockdowns, so it's highly unlikely that a lot of people got the virus before when we know that we were swamped when only around 10% of people that had symptoms and were tested ended up being positive. It would actually be fair to say that not a lot of people got the virus.
The alternative would be that for some reason severe cases all happened at the same time, which is unlikely.
This is a murder case, and I hope they find and prosecute the perpetrator to fullest extent of the law.Tweet
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With the amount of surveillance in the UK if this man doesnt end up facing a long sentence it will be a farce.Yes, manslaughter as a minimum, hope the person gets prosecuted.
I don't get your point?NI is part of the UK
These two categories happened at the same time, you can estimate one based on the other. If you add the mild symptoms, in France for example you would have maybe 600k-800k people that have had the virus which isn't a lot when we are talking about limiting a second wave.But what's the scientific reasoning to suggest many people did not get the virus with mild symptoms? Patients admitted into ICU would be those who received far worse symptoms but this is not reflective of a lot of covid cases. So many people were down with staple covid symptoms without any testing, because they weren't so bad that they needed to go into hospital.
Bars, restaurants, hairdressing and beauty salons will reopen across Italy from 18 May.
Regional authorities have been given the power to lift restrictions on the businesses, which had originally been due to reopen from 1 June.
Retailers, museums and libraries are also due to reopen from 18 May.
The move, announced by the government late last night, came after pressure from regional leaders to be allowed to establish their own reopening plan.
Safety measures will need to be implemented before the establishments can open, with restaurants required to set distances of four metres between diners.
There were 744 new cases of coronavirus in Italy on Monday – the lowest daily rise since 4 March. Deaths rose by 179 to 30,739.
They must be desperate to start doing business again but it will be short lived if infections increase again. This was going to happen eventually, the world has to try and coexist with virus.The pace of re-opening has been accelerated in Italy, after a meeting last night between the PM and bosses of the regions (where some pressure was applied, evidently). I'm not sure about it, personally. I know the cities want to get the restaurants fully open and the seaside resorts want to get going, but I think it's too early after the relaxing of restrictions on May 4th. It was originally going to be the beginning of June for bars, restaurants, hairdressers etc.
From the Guardian:
Sure I understand this and agree, if the numbers modeled are accurate. I'm not trying to be a skeptic for the sake of it, I guess what I'm trying to say is, how the heck can leading scientists assume how many people were experiencing mild symptoms of covid retrospectively? It's sort of impossible to get a gauge of. When I look around my own social bubbles, I can think of many who may well have had the covid itself when they had body aches or bad flus, but they won't know until accurate antigen tests are out to the public.These two categories happened at the same time, you can estimate one based on the other. If you add the mild symptoms, in France for example you would have maybe 600k-800k people that have had the virus which isn't a lot when we are talking about limiting a second wave.
Even if only 10% of people who get the virus end up in hospital (a low estimate), it would not take long for it to be noticed in hospital admissions. Consider South Korea who by most accounts knew about almost every case in their country, within 2 weeks they went from essentially zero to thousands of cases. You could not hide the hundreds of pneumonia-like admissions that would result.But what's the scientific reasoning to suggest many people did not get the virus with mild symptoms? Patients admitted into ICU would be those who received far worse symptoms but this is not reflective of a lot of covid cases. So many people were down with staple covid symptoms without any testing, because they weren't so bad that they needed to go into hospital.
Lombardy will decide on Thursday whether to follow that or stick with the original plan, but i agree with you it is too soon. We need another week to see what effect the May 4 relaxations have had.The pace of re-opening has been accelerated in Italy, after a meeting last night between the PM and bosses of the regions (where some pressure was applied, evidently). I'm not sure about it, personally. I know the cities want to get the restaurants fully open and the seaside resorts want to get going, but I think it's too early after the relaxing of restrictions on May 4th. It was originally going to be the beginning of June for bars, restaurants, hairdressers etc.
From the Guardian:
There's plenty of evidence from previous outbreaks such as SARS and now from nations doing mandatory masks, it's just not rigorous but then neither is our entire modelling or 99% of research at the moment so it's selective bias. It should be fairly common sense that with enough uptake it has a preventative effect and there's a lot of backing from health experts for them.There’s no evidence that they’re of any benefit, Whitty has been saying this for weeks! The only reason they’re talking about them now is to make people feel better or less scared if they have to go on the train etc to work. Placebo effect.
Again, you know that it's roughly accurate because when symptomatic people are tested only roughly 10% are positive. The people around you that have had symptoms most likely had the flu or a cold because only 1 out of 10 with symptoms have had Covid-19.Sure I understand this and agree, if the numbers modeled are accurate. I'm not trying to be a skeptic for the sake of it, I guess what I'm trying to say is, how the heck can leading scientists assume how many people were experiencing mild symptoms of covid retrospectively? It's sort of impossible to get a gauge of. When I look around my own social bubbles, I can think of many who may well have had the covid itself when they had body aches or bad flus, but they won't know until accurate antigen tests are out to the public.
NI is part of the UK
Manslaughter at the very least if they can find the cnutSurely that becomes murder
There is no evidence they're of any benefit in preventing infections, but there is lots of evidence that they prevent you spreading anything you might have.There’s no evidence that they’re of any benefit, Whitty has been saying this for weeks! The only reason they’re talking about them now is to make people feel better or less scared if they have to go on the train etc to work. Placebo effect.
Okay, fair enough. In which case I understand its extremely unlikely that a material number of people have had covid, enough to prevent a second wave at least. Ruined my day now thanksAgain, you know that it's roughly accurate because when symptomatic people are tested only roughly 10% are positive. The people around you that have had symptoms most likely had the flu or a cold because only 1 out of 10 with symptoms have had Covid-19.
Surely that becomes murder
Yes, manslaughter as a minimum, hope the person gets prosecuted.
This is a murder case, and I hope they find and prosecute the perpetrator to fullest extent of the law.
The whole thing is disgusting but sadly near impossible to prove an intent to kill or cause serious harm needed for murder. You'd have to be able to prove they a) knew they had coronavirus and b) intended to kill her or cause serious harm.Manslaughter at the very least if they can find the cnut
The way I see it, it's a positive thing because the virus was around in December-January but only a limited amount of people got it while we weren't extremely vigilant, so it may not be as contagious as I thought two months ago. In theory if we reopen totally when the virus doesn't circulate much we should be able to identify clusters quickly and take the appropriate measures, we just need to be more efficient when it comes to testings and people need to show some common sense and have higher hygene standards.Okay, fair enough. In which case I understand its extremely unlikely that a material number of people have had covid, enough to prevent a second wave at least. Ruined my day now thanks
Even then, you can’t prove either way that she didn’t contract it elsewhere. I clearly have no idea about law though.The whole thing is disgusting but sadly near impossible to prove an intent to kill or cause serious harm needed for murder. You'd have to be able to prove they a) knew they had coronavirus and b) intended to kill her or cause serious harm.
Makes for an interesting case mind.
Yeah exactly, especially given her job.Even then, you can’t prove that she didn’t contract it elsewhere.
We imported lots of cases that tested positive after arrival. That is why we have a compulsory 14 day hotel quarantine under police guard for anyone arriving internationally or traveling interstate - with most such travel banned.Surely NZ/AUS can screen any passenger that comes into their country? If you come in through airports you can submit to a test at your country of origin and by the time you land (assuming it's a long ass flight) your results should be ready. If negative, you're allowed in, if not the whole plane gets quarantined and dealt with.
It's expensive and cumbersome, but it can be done - not to mention cheaper than the alternative (which would presumably be quarantining the whole country again).
Yes 40k now, the care home situation is really bad, it exploded in April and is still running high. Protecting the elderly is something the country has failed to do.Have our official numbers definitely gone up to 40,000 now then? Do we think this will wake some up to the monumental cock up this country made?
a) should be pretty easy. If they had a test, saw a doctor or maybe even just called 111 it's pretty hard to argue otherwise.The whole thing is disgusting but sadly near impossible to prove an intent to kill or cause serious harm needed for murder. You'd have to be able to prove they a) knew they had coronavirus and b) intended to kill her or cause serious harm.
Makes for an interesting case mind.
I wouldn't say easy but you'd have to prove that yes. Then move on to prove the mens rea and then the actus reas.a) should be pretty easy. If they had a test, saw a doctor or maybe even just called 111 it's pretty hard to argue otherwise.
We do not know if the R0 is 3 or 5+We can work backwards. We know roughly how many people have had it over the last couple of months, when it was first detected, and what the R0 has been during that time. It's not difficult to get a broad estimate of the numbers present before it was detected and it's certainly not in the thousands.
In the report, a) is proven, in that the person who spat at the worker said that he had coronavirus, b) you could definitely prove he was reckless in his conduct with a) in mind which could substitute malice aforethought - possibly not enough for murder, but definitely enough for manslaughter.The whole thing is disgusting but sadly near impossible to prove an intent to kill or cause serious harm needed for murder. You'd have to be able to prove they a) knew they had coronavirus and b) intended to kill her or cause serious harm.
Makes for an interesting case mind.
I think this is how air travel will work but tests pre boarding. If you pass you can board, if not you go back home and self isolate. Now it's just about separating passengers in terminalsSurely NZ/AUS can screen any passenger that comes into their country? If you come in through airports you can submit to a test at your country of origin and by the time you land (assuming it's a long ass flight) your results should be ready. If negative, you're allowed in, if not the whole plane gets quarantined and dealt with.
It's expensive and cumbersome, but it can be done - not to mention cheaper than the alternative (which would presumably be quarantining the whole country again).
Are you sure about that? The UK doesn't publish it but i'd be amazed if they didn't know it. Other countries certainly do.We do not know if the R0 is 3 or 5+
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Cheers for the links.If you want insight, read review papers from annual review journal publications e.g. [here], textbooks e.g. [here], or listen to qualified individuals giving lectures (on Youtube for example). You shouldn't read random articles which do not do a good job of explaining anything at all and worse still add very few references. Whilst the article is written by a person within biology, people who specialise in biology are probably not qualified to speak about droplet dispersion in quiescent and turbulent flows.
Fair play to them on this one. Have stated that no changes to the % for now too.Tweet
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From everything I've read it is far from certain. Certainly not less than 3 but likely much higher.Are you sure about that? The UK doesn't publish it but i'd be amazed if they didn't know it. Other countries certainly do.
Yeah agreed.Fair play to them on this one. Have stated that no changes to the % for now too.