We have got to get the Premier league voided avoided somehow.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
According to this video...this is how covid re-activated in Wuhan. A man was diagnosed on March 17, released from hospital end of March. And now he has virus again as well as 6 others connected to him. This is why they are retesting the entire population of Wuhan - eleven million people.
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Fresh out of my weekly webinar from Irish College of Physicians.
They had a Swiss epidemiologist/economist comparing outcomes in various countries. One factor that nobody has mentioned in this thread (I think?) is number of care home beds per capita. The higher this figure the higher the mortality. Obviously, median age is related to this but there were relatively elderly countries that had a tradition of not using care homes (e.g. Portugal) with excellent outcomes and younger countries with extensive care home use that did badly (e.g. Belgium)
He also mentioned a growing body of evidence that the more extreme lockdowns don’t have a big enough effect on mortality vs “soft lockdowns” to justify the economic hit. But, unfortunately, countries with soft lockdowns (e.g. Sweden) will still take a huge hit, economically, because they rely on exports which will be fecked by all the other countries economies going South.
As someone who’s always been very pro lockdown this has given me a lot of food for thought...
@Arruda
@Regulus Arcturus Black
@11101
@africanspur
They had a Swiss epidemiologist/economist comparing outcomes in various countries. One factor that nobody has mentioned in this thread (I think?) is number of care home beds per capita. The higher this figure the higher the mortality. Obviously, median age is related to this but there were relatively elderly countries that had a tradition of not using care homes (e.g. Portugal) with excellent outcomes and younger countries with extensive care home use that did badly (e.g. Belgium)
He also mentioned a growing body of evidence that the more extreme lockdowns don’t have a big enough effect on mortality vs “soft lockdowns” to justify the economic hit. But, unfortunately, countries with soft lockdowns (e.g. Sweden) will still take a huge hit, economically, because they rely on exports which will be fecked by all the other countries economies going South.
As someone who’s always been very pro lockdown this has given me a lot of food for thought...
@Arruda
@Regulus Arcturus Black
@11101
@africanspur
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so what's the big deal?
It was such a stupid thing to ask on my part, but honestly mate nowadays I don't know what is true and whats "just a prank bro".
Australia and New Zealand protected their people with decent lockdowns.
They are no worse economically banjaxed than anyone else but have managed to save lives.
Id says they are the model we should have all followed.
Resurrections?
Has this been posted yet?
As a kid, I had pretty bad OCD. I can trace it back to watching a similar video, so be warned.
As a kid, I had pretty bad OCD. I can trace it back to watching a similar video, so be warned.
Neither are global hubs, most European countries can't use them as models because the contexts are vastly different. They are a lot more isolated.
Thanks. Samples were taken from 27.4., so if we assume that antibodies take 14 days to develop and look at deaths from 13.4. This makes the IFR around 0.75% And Financial Times estimates an underreporting of around 30-40%, making the real IFR around 1.0%.
It was my reaction.
But no, in France deaths in care homes where there is a confirmed case are assumed to be covid-19 deaths. So these are probably previously assumed cases that have been tested and cameback negative.
Woah!
The second wave isn't about covid 19
This was always going to end with a zombie apocalypse.The second wave isn't about covid 19
The way she describes it is that he felt better again and the virus did a crafty play dead before springing back again 10 days later
Whats the important of this? A high percentage of poeples money goes towards paying for the propery they live in, no surprise here
Well hes released before the 14 day period was up or just bang on. If it were months later I would be worried
Dr Kim is a worldwide authority on covid19.
Here is his latest interview where he discusses origins and possible timing for 2nd wave of COVID-19
Here is his latest interview where he discusses origins and possible timing for 2nd wave of COVID-19
Are there any meaningful UK figures available showing how many of the new daily infections are occurring in HCW’s?
I still feel were possibly missing parts of the picture and its hard to make judgements like that. Certainly feels like roughly similar lockdown measures are having widely different outcomes for different countries. I've kind of been ignoring the details for a couple of weeks though so I'm not really up to speed.
Not entirely sure how accurate or reliable various countries data on the subject is also, so i'd still be pretty wary presonally. I'm sure theres plenty of areas that lockdown could be safely eased with some thought and care but suspect there'll be as many that could potentially be fairly disastrous (london bus above looking a good example)
How does this saga rank against mega transfer sagas on here in terms of pages?
Both countries with geography and transport links that make them almost completely non-comparable to European countries.
Its not even caught up with the WWE thread yet
One thing I haven't thought of before is when borders will be opened between countries again with regards to economy and stage of lockdown in respective countries.
Germany are keen to open the border to Denmark on Friday(!). Which I'm sure our politicians will sit down and think about. Had Sweden proposed the same I'm not sure that would be the case. Their daily news cases are basically unchanged since the end of April.
Interesting to see how this plays out.
What the hell? No one thinks that.
That doesn't surprise me at all. I have always been sceptical of the lock down theory generally espoused on here. There were always huge outliers in Belgium, Singapore and Sweden that were too significant for lock downs to be that significant. If you take all the excess deaths in the UK, the 50k estimate roughly then you still only get a per capita death rate that's about the same as Belgium's currently and Belgium was the first to lock down in Europe. That's before Belgium actual excess deaths are known. It seems to me that the real common denominator for the best outcomes; demographic, geographic factors etc aside, was effective contact tracing. Germany aced this and was the only large more advanced European economy not to be badly hit. Has there been any country that employed this method well from the start that had a bad outcome?
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To be clear he wasn’t saying lockdowns were a bad decision. There was no data on countries without any kind of lockdown. And the consensus was that this would lead to a catastrophe.
It was more about whether a more Swedish approach might have been better for everyone (music to the ears of @Regulus Arcturus Black) Allowing younger people to lead a more normal life while making sure that the elderly/vulnerable are properly cocooned (which is where Sweden dropped the ball) The latter bit is tricky, obviously. Proper PPE. Regular compulsory testing of all staff working at places like care homes. Anyone living with elderly/vulnerable people forced to cocoon alongside them etc etc etc.
Obviously this is all being wise with hindsight. This data wasn’t available when the shit first hit the fan. Hopefully it will inform PH policies with any second or subsequent waves though.
I wasn't actually making a judgement on whether one or the other approach is better. It was more speculation about whether it would make sense to lock down aggressively with a view to open borders to other countries with the virus under control earlier. Whether that's better for the economy basically, than less strict lockdown and maybe later reopening of borders.
EDIT: If that makes sense. For some reason I can't explain myself right now.
Pretty much everything except gyms and night clubs will be open in Poland starting monday.
Some gastronomy restrictions like 1 person per 4 sqm and 2 meter distance between tables....but seating both indoors and outdoors allowed starting monday.
Feeling like a 5 year old about to get his candy. What a glorious week ahead. Gonna dine out every single night, you never know if/when this could be reversed. Really curious if most population is as eager as excited as I am, or if people are still hesitant to go to bars/restaurants.
From the mood in the city I suspect the latter. Last weekend, it was 23 degrees and full everywhere and less than 30% of people were complying with the mandatory mask wearing law anyways...but time will tell.
Some gastronomy restrictions like 1 person per 4 sqm and 2 meter distance between tables....but seating both indoors and outdoors allowed starting monday.
Feeling like a 5 year old about to get his candy. What a glorious week ahead. Gonna dine out every single night, you never know if/when this could be reversed. Really curious if most population is as eager as excited as I am, or if people are still hesitant to go to bars/restaurants.
From the mood in the city I suspect the latter. Last weekend, it was 23 degrees and full everywhere and less than 30% of people were complying with the mandatory mask wearing law anyways...but time will tell.
No, you explained it well. And it is a conundrum. I just threw you in a multiquote with other replies to my post, instead of trying to answer the issue you raised. Sorry about that!
No that's alright. I just wanted to make sure I'd managed to get my point across.
I have no idea what the answer is, fingers crossed the people in charge do.
Having spent some time in Seoul a few years back they actually wear face masks for pollution rather than infection risk. Notwithstanding that I still agree with your overall point.
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Really encouraging data from Ireland.
Narrative seems to be an issue too. As you say UK and US deaths seem to be roughly the same per capita as elsewhere but the criticism has seemed far more significant. Part of the reason i stopped paying attention to the numbers and figures coming out is it just doesn't feel that logical to compare the entire UK lumped together including London with Ireland for instance. I dont see how you can draw any meaningful conclusions from them kind of figures (leaving aside the discrepancies in how they're calculating the figures).
I kind of feel they need to break down the numbers and regions far more than they currently are (though i assume those making decisions have them details?). I dont see how its logical for London to use the same strategy as a rural town in the middle of Finland for instance.
I'm sure theres thousands of businesses across Europe that with minor alterations could reopen safely and I think we should probably start looking at them finer detailsl rather than the one size fits all best strategy for the entirety of europe and elsewhere that seems to be the focus at the moment.
Have any of you guys listened to the 11 part series that This Podcast Will Kill You did on Covid-19?
http://thispodcastwillkillyou.com/category/covid-19/
http://thispodcastwillkillyou.com/category/covid-19/
Which would make today’s parliament exchange between Boris and Starmer very damning for the Tories.
Feels like this has lots of legs for the weeks ahead. If Starmer plays his cards right, will surely be a mortal blow for Boris, Hancock et al.
This isn't really the same thing to be fair. Convincing a significant number of people they should actually leave their house and go to work isn't really the same as trying to convince them not to vote tory. People voted for Brexit and Boris because they wanted to. No one wants to be stuck in their home for the rest of time, but I have intelligent friends who seem to be behaving as if the air outside is poisoness and anyone who leaves their home is endangering the future of the human race.
A majority of people still don't even seem to understand that lockdown is designed to control the peak of the virus, not get rid of it. You only have to go on any social media platform or read some posts in this thread to see that. People seem to think if we all stay indoors long enough it will just go away, which is just a factual impossibility.
The little differences between a tiny percentage of people going back to work or allowing people out to sunbathe and meet each other actually make a very tiny difference to anything...and I suspect the science is going to make that irrefutable before too long and all these harsher lock down measures are going to seem pointless. The biggest factor where we fecked up with our lockdown was waiting too long to do it. We could have done it 2 weeks earlier with meaures closer to what we have from this week and probably saved a lot of lives.
Yeah it doesn't make much sense to me either as things like chicken pox seem to go around schools very easily...but apparently with a pandemic in general opening or closing schools makes little difference, and with this one in particular kids are much less likely to become infected.
Also every time I've been out running or due to work, to be fair there are kids and teenagers just out playing and mixing with each other anyway. If them being in a school is a problem I don't understand why so many parents are fine with letting them play or hang around together, or think this is somehow any different.
It's definitely not going to be as straight forward as the government seem to want it to be though. I mean for example my boss's kid is meant to be going back to school next month, but his wife is pregnant and on the vulnerable list, so unless they just tell everyone it's ok not to isolate within the next 2-3 weeks, they can't exactly let their kid go back to school and be around hundreds of others, plus have to drop them off and pick them up each day...and I don't see how we're at a stage yet where they can tell people on the at risk list to just go out and about all they want.
To be honest though Geebs I've not seen anything remotely scientific or convincing that tells you any of the harsher lockdown measures have that much impact. The whole thing seems quite bizarre to me still. There's not much consistency to anything. Not letting people near each other outside but then bottle necking them into supermarkets.
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Good program on channel 4 - The country that beat the virus - what Britain can learn . Showing the measures South Korea took .
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