Well it worked for Hugh Grant.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
all of this should be superseded by the fact that if one can do their work from home, they should simply just stick to it. save the public transport, bike lanes, office space etc for those who literally need to be in their office to do their job properly. hopefully companies enforce this.
Looking more like he’s bet on Green.
Personally respect the governments ruling but I believe in using discretion considering Boris got the virus himself. They have eased the lockdown in UK on the basis of the death toll falling but does that signify some type of immunity or development in a solution towards the outbreak ? I don't think it does personally, I reckon the numbers could potentially incline with people becoming more vulnerable letting their guard down. I hope this isn't the case however but you have to take whatever the Gov advise with a pinch of salt.
Can anyone answer if the R0 has time incorporated in the calculation? Is it over the whole period a person can infect someone? and does anyone know that amount of time? or is it a daily figure? To model the spread this needs to known too surely.
A high R0 value would also lead to high infections but most people here seem to think relatively few have actually been exposed so far.
If only 3% of the UK have had it and that yielded 40,000 deaths then the thought of 50% 60% of people getting it in the next twelve months is sobering to say the least. I'm still hoping a lot more have had it asystematically because if you're right and few people have then we have seen nothing yet to how all lives will change.
A high R0 value would also lead to high infections but most people here seem to think relatively few have actually been exposed so far.
If only 3% of the UK have had it and that yielded 40,000 deaths then the thought of 50% 60% of people getting it in the next twelve months is sobering to say the least. I'm still hoping a lot more have had it asystematically because if you're right and few people have then we have seen nothing yet to how all lives will change.
Yes, basking in his 80 seat majority ... no hard balls being thrown (even by Kier Starmer) .. Boris knocking them all over the place, for five more years!
Never tried it tbf, just figured it was horrible enough to navigate as a pedestrian with all of the piss-soaked tunnels. Cars do go pretty fast round it too.
How to cope with a lockdown: Write a song
Were you ever allowed outside of your room? If not, how did you cope with cabin fever and lack of movement and exercise?
The government really have only had one thing uppermost in its mind since the onset of the pandemic and that is to make sure as far as possible that the NHS doesn't get over-run by the Covid-19 virus. Hence the Nightingale hospitals etc.
I suspect it wasn't really about saving lives, just like the 'battle of Britain' situation it was the few being sacrificed for the good of the many. They believe the worst is now over, although they expect there to be some returning spikes in the lists of cases and deaths being recorded. However the Government has to get the country back on an even keel, not just economically but for the good of everyone's health. Currently there are lots of people suffering from various serious ailments (other than Covid-19) who will also start to die in their thousands unless our NHS returns to its full range of services as quickly as possible.
It isn't just the economic elements, its the wider public health situation that the Government must now concentrate on.
R0 is independent of time. The number just means how many other people will get infected by each case. 1.0 implies each case will infect one other person, 2.0 implies each case infects two other people and so on.
It’s partly down to how infectious the virus itself is but also goes up and down depending how well contained the disease is. Social distancing and quarantining cases drive it down and easing of lockdown measures will drive it up. That’s why the exact same virus can have different R0’s in different countries, or in different phases of the epidemic in the same country. It can even be different in different regions of the same country at the same time.
Cycling in London is brilliant.
I’d urge anyone not planning to get on a bus or tube for the next 6 months, to practise their commute on a bike a few times while it’s not very busy.
Regarding Hyde Park Corner - Cyclists travel with pedestrians. It’s pretty solid. But I got your point. Some junctions really are horrible, but you learn to navigate alternative routes. Even a 500m detour on a bike is nothing.
Cheers. Whether 3 people get it over a day or month is vital to know for hospital capacity so really interesting how time is not included. I suppose it's just one measure for health officials to work with but in itself not going to help complete a plan.
Nah feck that.
Didn't mind cycling in Manchester but couldn't do it in London.
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Pretty low for Wednesday
It kind of is dependent of time since it's a reproduction speed, the timeframe being the period during which someone is infectious.
Well I'd imagine it's very possible that the real figures reported on the day before lockdown were much higher than stated due to fewer tests taking place. But are we also certain (given the multitude of stories about test kits not being picked up and processed on time) that today's figures aren't much lower than the true number of infections?
Getting people back on tubes, trains and buses at this point with no clear guidance to employers or employees is madness.
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Is it seriously organised by Everton fc?
The sillyness is going to start now as the government does need to get things back up and running, but due to the lack of clarity of what the plan ever was and lack of producing any actual scientific data, a lot of people still haven't got into their heads that staying in lockdown isn't going to make the virus go away.
Already there's a ton of resistance to re-opening schools. I don't get why they don't just publish the data as it'll solve a lot of the impending bickering.
There is a point things get to where even with full lockdown measures you wont reduce the infection rate, because it will still pass between key workers, people visiting hospitals, shops, etc...and against that there's a bunch of factors such as schools which actually have very little impact on the infection rate...but without having the data available to everyone you're just asking people to do things blindly, many of who are easily made anxious and still of a mindset that going outside is taking your life into your own hands.
I'm sure they were estimating about 120,000 current infections at the weekend. That's actually a pretty low number. You think half will be either in hospital or self isolating, and that means you're looking at 1 in every 1000 people or more carrying the virus around....in some parts of the country the infection number will be significantly lower than that. It's quite easy to explain to a rational person using those figures, why meeting someone in a park or working on a building site is actually a very tiny risk, while getting on a packed train is still a fairly significant one. If you don't explain these things to people then a lot will simply not differentiate one situation from another.
Already there's a ton of resistance to re-opening schools. I don't get why they don't just publish the data as it'll solve a lot of the impending bickering.
There is a point things get to where even with full lockdown measures you wont reduce the infection rate, because it will still pass between key workers, people visiting hospitals, shops, etc...and against that there's a bunch of factors such as schools which actually have very little impact on the infection rate...but without having the data available to everyone you're just asking people to do things blindly, many of who are easily made anxious and still of a mindset that going outside is taking your life into your own hands.
I'm sure they were estimating about 120,000 current infections at the weekend. That's actually a pretty low number. You think half will be either in hospital or self isolating, and that means you're looking at 1 in every 1000 people or more carrying the virus around....in some parts of the country the infection number will be significantly lower than that. It's quite easy to explain to a rational person using those figures, why meeting someone in a park or working on a building site is actually a very tiny risk, while getting on a packed train is still a fairly significant one. If you don't explain these things to people then a lot will simply not differentiate one situation from another.
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I see what you mean. I supposed it’s not completely time dependent in that the duration of infectivity will be taken into account when interpreting it. We know people will only, on average, infect other people over a 14 day period. So with an R0 of 1, this means each case will infect one other person within the next 14 days. Something like that anyway.
I'm not criticising your comment, but it's come to a bad state of affairs when we're almost immune to seeing that nearly 500 people have died in one day.
I thought that could be the case. Once we know the infection period you can model the total amount who have had the virus or predict the amount giving the R0 different values to build scenerios.
Yes, because the general public are usually so keen to read pages and pages of analysis, digest it, and act accordingly. That's why Brexit didn't happen, climate change was averted and we got the Tories out.
I took it as a remark on the number of tests carried out.
@Penna back below 400 cases in Lombardy today. I'm not sure why there was a spike yesterday.
I haven't seen national figures yet but we are such a large proportion of all cases that a good day here = a good day everywhere.
Yeah I know what you mean, it's bad. Daily is also less impactful but a thousand every two days sounds alarming.
For care home and community deaths included and particularly cases at 3.2k it's relatively low but I would've waited 2 weeks more for this weeks easing. Cases lowering with much more testing is good news.
That's good - there's 888 new cases and 195 deaths in the whole of the country.
How is it that Russia have more cases than the UK, yet less than a tenth of deaths?
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Bit of a pointless tweet, isn't that just highlighting where peoples salary go. Not necessarily furlough going directly to these groups.
What's the point in that? That's where their wages/salary would go anyway? They still have things to pay, it isn't free money so they can buy new cars and stuff?
The people are on the pitch..
and on the paths, the parks, the beaches, the shopping aisles, the busses, the tubes, they’re fecking everywhere
https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/who-wins-and-who-pays
or this thread
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In France today we have 83 deaths, +98 in hospitals and -15 in care homes.
He is Prime Minister with a large working majority and 4 1/2 years until the next election. At what point is this warning too late?
Seroprevalence in Spain is about 5% having covid19
Sanidad. Soria (14,2%), Cuenca (13,5%), Segovia (12,6%), Albacete (11,6%), Madrid (11,3%), Ciudad Real (11,1%) y Guadalajara (10,9%)
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-05...onavirus-en-espana-y-el-mundo-en-directo.html
Sanidad. Soria (14,2%), Cuenca (13,5%), Segovia (12,6%), Albacete (11,6%), Madrid (11,3%), Ciudad Real (11,1%) y Guadalajara (10,9%)
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https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-05...onavirus-en-espana-y-el-mundo-en-directo.html
I've check this thread daily and have wondered what page 1000 would look like. We are getting ever closer...
Someone will have to convince me on your point about schools. From experience, my kids catch every single thing going around schools - how can they not? They are constantly touching each other, sharing toys etc. My sons school has 5 kids around one table. in addition to that it’s like the Wild West when parents are drilling off or picking up kids.’if there’s a bit of wind or drop of rain everyone congregates under a tiny piece of cover. I’ve had people literally standing on my toes they’ve been that close.
I for one would think twice about sending my kids back so soon
No I don't really agree with the conclusion, it can't be directly linked to furlough support this one. This is a conclusion that could be done prior to the Covid19 outbreak and is a discussion on equality using the furlough support to try and add some weight to the topic. This is not something that has been discovered or linked to the government's decision to support staff & business.
Bit of a very weird trojan horse style article.