BigDunc9
Full Member
We have got to get the Premier league voided avoided somehow.Is it seriously organised by Everton fc?
We have got to get the Premier league voided avoided somehow.Is it seriously organised by Everton fc?
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so what's the big deal?Tweet
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100% this.Someone will have to convince me on your point about schools. From experience, my kids catch every single thing going around schools - how can they not? They are constantly touching each other, sharing toys etc. My sons school has 5 kids around one table. in addition to that it’s like the Wild West when parents are drilling off or picking up kids.’if there’s a bit of wind or drop of rain everyone congregates under a tiny piece of cover. I’ve had people literally standing on my toes they’ve been that close.
I for one would think twice about sending my kids back so soon
It was such a stupid thing to ask on my part, but honestly mate nowadays I don't know what is true and whats "just a prank bro".We have got to get the Premier league voided avoided somehow.
Australia and New Zealand protected their people with decent lockdowns.Fresh out of my weekly webinar from Irish College of Physicians. They had a Swiss epidemiologist/economist comparing outcomes in various countries. One factor that nobody has mentioned in this thread (I think?) is number of care home beds per capita. The higher this figure the higher the mortality. Obviously, median age is related to this but there were relatively elderly countries that had a tradition of not using care homes (e.g. Portugal) with excellent outcomes and younger countries with extensive care home use that did badly (e.g. Belgium)
He also mentioned a growing body of evidence that the more extreme lockdowns don’t have a big enough effect on mortality vs “soft lockdowns” to justify the economic hit. But, unfortunately, countries with soft lockdowns (e.g. Sweden) will still take a huge hit, economically, because they rely on exports which will be fecked by all the other countries economies going South.
As someone who’s always been very pro lockdown this has given me a lot of food for thought...
@Arruda
@Regulus Arcturus Black
@11101
@africanspur
Resurrections?In France today we have 83 deaths, +98 in hospitals and -15 in care homes.
Neither are global hubs, most European countries can't use them as models because the contexts are vastly different. They are a lot more isolated.Australia and New Zealand protected their people with decent lockdowns.
They are no worse economically banjaxed than anyone else but have managed to save lives.
Id says they are the model we should have all followed.
Thanks. Samples were taken from 27.4., so if we assume that antibodies take 14 days to develop and look at deaths from 13.4. This makes the IFR around 0.75% And Financial Times estimates an underreporting of around 30-40%, making the real IFR around 1.0%.Seroprevalence in Spain is about 5% having covid19
Sanidad. Soria (14,2%), Cuenca (13,5%), Segovia (12,6%), Albacete (11,6%), Madrid (11,3%), Ciudad Real (11,1%) y Guadalajara (10,9%)
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https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-05...onavirus-en-espana-y-el-mundo-en-directo.html
It was my reaction.Resurrections?
Woah!According to this video...this is how covid re-activated in Wuhan. A man was diagnosed on March 17, released from hospital end of March. And now he has virus again as well as 6 others connected to him. This is why they are retesting the entire population of Wuhan - eleven million people.
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The second wave isn't about covid 19Resurrections?
This was always going to end with a zombie apocalypse.The second wave isn't about covid 19
The way she describes it is that he felt better again and the virus did a crafty play dead before springing back again 10 days laterAccording to this video...this is how covid re-activated in Wuhan. A man was diagnosed on March 17, released from hospital end of March. And now he has virus again as well as 6 others connected to him. This is why they are retesting the entire population of Wuhan - eleven million people.
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Well hes released before the 14 day period was up or just bang on. If it were months later I would be worriedWoah!
I still feel were possibly missing parts of the picture and its hard to make judgements like that. Certainly feels like roughly similar lockdown measures are having widely different outcomes for different countries. I've kind of been ignoring the details for a couple of weeks though so I'm not really up to speed.Fresh out of my weekly webinar from Irish College of Physicians.
They had a Swiss epidemiologist/economist comparing outcomes in various countries. One factor that nobody has mentioned in this thread (I think?) is number of care home beds per capita. The higher this figure the higher the mortality. Obviously, median age is related to this but there were relatively elderly countries that had a tradition of not using care homes (e.g. Portugal) with excellent outcomes and younger countries with extensive care home use that did badly (e.g. Belgium)
He also mentioned a growing body of evidence that the more extreme lockdowns don’t have a big enough effect on mortality vs “soft lockdowns” to justify the economic hit. But, unfortunately, countries with soft lockdowns (e.g. Sweden) will still take a huge hit, economically, because they rely on exports which will be fecked by all the other countries economies going South.
As someone who’s always been very pro lockdown this has given me a lot of food for thought...
@Arruda
@Regulus Arcturus Black
@11101
@africanspur
Both countries with geography and transport links that make them almost completely non-comparable to European countries.Australia and New Zealand protected their people with decent lockdowns.
They are no worse economically banjaxed than anyone else but have managed to save lives.
Id says they are the model we should have all followed.
Its not even caught up with the WWE thread yetHow does this saga rank against mega transfer sagas on here in terms of pages?
One thing I haven't thought of before is when borders will be opened between countries again with regards to economy and stage of lockdown in respective countries.Fresh out of my weekly webinar from Irish College of Physicians.
They had a Swiss epidemiologist/economist comparing outcomes in various countries. One factor that nobody has mentioned in this thread (I think?) is number of care home beds per capita. The higher this figure the higher the mortality. Obviously, median age is related to this but there were relatively elderly countries that had a tradition of not using care homes (e.g. Portugal) with excellent outcomes and younger countries with extensive care home use that did badly (e.g. Belgium)
He also mentioned a growing body of evidence that the more extreme lockdowns don’t have a big enough effect on mortality vs “soft lockdowns” to justify the economic hit. But, unfortunately, countries with soft lockdowns (e.g. Sweden) will still take a huge hit, economically, because they rely on exports which will be fecked by all the other countries economies going South.
As someone who’s always been very pro lockdown this has given me a lot of food for thought...
@Arruda
@Regulus Arcturus Black
@11101
@africanspur
What the hell? No one thinks that.So many people thinking its all over.
That doesn't surprise me at all. I have always been sceptical of the lock down theory generally espoused on here. There were always huge outliers in Belgium, Singapore and Sweden that were too significant for lock downs to be that significant. If you take all the excess deaths in the UK, the 50k estimate roughly then you still only get a per capita death rate that's about the same as Belgium's currently and Belgium was the first to lock down in Europe. That's before Belgium actual excess deaths are known. It seems to me that the real common denominator for the best outcomes; demographic, geographic factors etc aside, was effective contact tracing. Germany aced this and was the only large more advanced European economy not to be badly hit. Has there been any country that employed this method well from the start that had a bad outcome?Fresh out of my weekly webinar from Irish College of Physicians.
They had a Swiss epidemiologist/economist comparing outcomes in various countries. One factor that nobody has mentioned in this thread (I think?) is number of care home beds per capita. The higher this figure the higher the mortality. Obviously, median age is related to this but there were relatively elderly countries that had a tradition of not using care homes (e.g. Portugal) with excellent outcomes and younger countries with extensive care home use that did badly (e.g. Belgium)
He also mentioned a growing body of evidence that the more extreme lockdowns don’t have a big enough effect on mortality vs “soft lockdowns” to justify the economic hit. But, unfortunately, countries with soft lockdowns (e.g. Sweden) will still take a huge hit, economically, because they rely on exports which will be fecked by all the other countries economies going South.
As someone who’s always been very pro lockdown this has given me a lot of food for thought...
@Arruda
@Regulus Arcturus Black
@11101
@africanspur
I still feel were possibly missing parts of the picture and its hard to make judgements like that. Certainly feels like roughly similar lockdown measures are having widely different outcomes for different countries. I've kind of been ignoring the details for a couple of weeks though so I'm not really up to speed.
Not entirely sure how accurate or reliable various countries data on the subject is also, so i'd still be pretty wary presonally. I'm sure theres plenty of areas that lockdown could be safely eased with some thought and care but suspect there'll be as many that could potentially be fairly disastrous (london bus above looking a good example)
One thing I haven't thought of before is when borders will be opened between countries again with regards to economy and stage of lockdown in respective countries.
Germany are keen to open the border to Denmark on Friday(!). Which I'm sure our politicians will sit down and think about. Had Sweden proposed the same I'm not sure that would be the case. Their daily news cases are basically unchanged since the end of April.
Interesting to see how this plays out.
To be clear he wasn’t saying lockdowns were a bad decision. There was no data on countries without any kind of lockdown. And the consensus was that this would lead to a catastrophe.That doesn't surprise me at all. I have always been sceptical of the lock down theory generally espoused on here. There was always huge outliers in Belgium, Singapore and Sweden that were too significant for lock downs to be that significant. If you take all the excess deaths in the UK, the 50k estimate roughly then you still only get a per capita death rate that's about the same as Belgium's currently and Belgium was the first to lock down in Europe. That's before Belgium actual excess deaths are known. It seems to me that the real common denominator for the best outcomes; demographic, geographic factors etc aside, was effective contact tracing. Germany aced this and was the only large more advanced European economy not to be badly hit. Has there been any country that employed this method well from the start that had a bad outcome?
I wasn't actually making a judgement on whether one or the other approach is better. It was more speculation about whether it would make sense to lock down aggressively with a view to open borders to other countries with the virus under control earlier. Whether that's better for the economy basically, than less strict lockdown and maybe later reopening of borders.To be clear he wasn’t saying lockdowns were a bad decision. There was no data on countries without any kind of lockdown. And the consensus was that this would lead to a catastrophe.
It was more about whether a more Swedish approach might have been better for everyone (music to the ears of @Regulus Arcturus Black) Allowing younger people to lead a more normal life while making sure that the elderly/vulnerable are properly cocooned (which is where Sweden dropped the ball) The latter bit is tricky, obviously. Proper PPE. Regular compulsory testing of all staff working at places like care homes. Anyone living with elderly/vulnerable people forced to cocoon alongside them etc etc etc.
Obviously this is all being wise with hindsight. This data wasn’t available when the shit first hit the fan. Hopefully it will inform PH policies with any second or subsequent waves though.
No, you explained it well. And it is a conundrum. I just threw you in a multiquote with other replies to my post, instead of trying to answer the issue you raised. Sorry about that!I wasn't actually making a judgement on whether one or the other approach is better. It was more speculation about whether it would make sense to lock down aggressively with a view to open borders to other countries with the virus under control earlier. Whether that's better for the economy basically, than less strict lockdown and maybe later reopening of borders.
EDIT: If that makes sense. For some reason I can't explain myself right now.
No that's alright. I just wanted to make sure I'd managed to get my point across.No, you explained it well. And it is a conundrum. I just threw you in a multiquote with other replies to my post, instead of trying to answer the issue you raised. Sorry about that!
Having spent some time in Seoul a few years back they actually wear face masks for pollution rather than infection risk. Notwithstanding that I still agree with your overall point.I think Asian countries in general are far more advanced and meticulous in their planning than western countries, perhaps because they have more experience. It’s 2nd nature to them to wear face masks for example. Perhaps when it comes to face masks we should be copying them.
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Narrative seems to be an issue too. As you say UK and US deaths seem to be roughly the same per capita as elsewhere but the criticism has seemed far more significant. Part of the reason i stopped paying attention to the numbers and figures coming out is it just doesn't feel that logical to compare the entire UK lumped together including London with Ireland for instance. I dont see how you can draw any meaningful conclusions from them kind of figures (leaving aside the discrepancies in how they're calculating the figures).That doesn't surprise me at all. I have always been sceptical of the lock down theory generally espoused on here. There were always huge outliers in Belgium, Singapore and Sweden that were too significant for lock downs to be that significant. If you take all the excess deaths in the UK, the 50k estimate roughly then you still only get a per capita death rate that's about the same as Belgium's currently and Belgium was the first to lock down in Europe. That's before Belgium actual excess deaths are known. It seems to me that the real common denominator for the best outcomes; demographic, geographic factors etc aside, was effective contact tracing. Germany aced this and was the only large more advanced European economy not to be badly hit. Has there been any country that employed this method well from the start that had a bad outcome?
Which would make today’s parliament exchange between Boris and Starmer very damning for the Tories.Fresh out of my weekly webinar from Irish College of Physicians.
They had a Swiss epidemiologist/economist comparing outcomes in various countries. One factor that nobody has mentioned in this thread (I think?) is number of care home beds per capita. The higher this figure the higher the mortality. Obviously, median age is related to this but there were relatively elderly countries that had a tradition of not using care homes (e.g. Portugal) with excellent outcomes and younger countries with extensive care home use that did badly (e.g. Belgium)
He also mentioned a growing body of evidence that the more extreme lockdowns don’t have a big enough effect on mortality vs “soft lockdowns” to justify the economic hit. But, unfortunately, countries with soft lockdowns (e.g. Sweden) will still take a huge hit, economically, because they rely on exports which will be fecked by all the other countries economies going South.
As someone who’s always been very pro lockdown this has given me a lot of food for thought...
@Arruda
@Regulus Arcturus Black
@11101
@africanspur
This isn't really the same thing to be fair. Convincing a significant number of people they should actually leave their house and go to work isn't really the same as trying to convince them not to vote tory. People voted for Brexit and Boris because they wanted to. No one wants to be stuck in their home for the rest of time, but I have intelligent friends who seem to be behaving as if the air outside is poisoness and anyone who leaves their home is endangering the future of the human race.Yes, because the general public are usually so keen to read pages and pages of analysis, digest it, and act accordingly. That's why Brexit didn't happen, climate change was averted and we got the Tories out.
Yeah it doesn't make much sense to me either as things like chicken pox seem to go around schools very easily...but apparently with a pandemic in general opening or closing schools makes little difference, and with this one in particular kids are much less likely to become infected.Someone will have to convince me on your point about schools. From experience, my kids catch every single thing going around schools - how can they not? They are constantly touching each other, sharing toys etc. My sons school has 5 kids around one table. in addition to that it’s like the Wild West when parents are drilling off or picking up kids.’if there’s a bit of wind or drop of rain everyone congregates under a tiny piece of cover. I’ve had people literally standing on my toes they’ve been that close.
I for one would think twice about sending my kids back so soon