SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,934
Location
France
Ontario announced the opening of some businesses/sectors today. My dog will be able to get a groom soon.

I still can't get a haircut though. :(
Put a collar on and see if it works?
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,981
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Daily deaths continues to go down in Ireland with 10 confirmed today but the new cases had a big jump to 432 when it had appeared to be heading towards double figures over the past week.

I'm hoping this is due to some kind of back log but no info on that just yet.
Yeah, 200+ cases all from one hospital, not reported until now. Apparently the Occupational Health department was supposed to report them and didn’t. So they must all be HCWs. Can you imagine the sinking feeling for the poor bastard realising they’d missed that off their to do list?
 

Fluctuation0161

Full Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2016
Messages
8,165
Location
Manchester
Car if they have one, walk / cycle if practical, or avoid peak times if they are using public transport. It’s difficult though.
Reality is lots of people will not have/not be able to afford a car and be travelling too far for walking. Not everyone rides a bike. Considering the short notice on the "back to work" message people may also not have had time to get one.

Other counties had 2 weeks notice on changes on policy. We get 24 hours notice in the UK. Irresponsible.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,934
Location
France
As Colin posted in the General earlier...

Plandemic Documentary debunked:

Plandemic Documentary: The Hidden Agenda Behind Covid-19 #DEBUNKED!!

The “documentary” begins…

“Dr. Judy Mikovits has been called one of the most accomplished scientists of her generation.

… [claims that Dr. Mikovits revolutionized AIDS testing and treatment]

At the height of her career, Dr. Mikovits published a blockbuster article in the journal, Science. The controversial article sent shockwaves through the scientific community as it revealed that the common use of animal and human fetal tissues were unleashing devastating plagues of chronic diseases. For exposing their deadly secrets, the minions of Big Pharma waged war on Dr. Mikovits Destroying her good name, career and personal life.”

At minute 1:55 in the film “one of the most accomplished scientists of her time” claims that she was arrested, but charged with NOTHING. At minute 1:58 she claims to have been held in jail with no charges, which if true would absolutely violate the 6th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States. 2:05 she claims there was “no warrant” for her arrest and at 2:13 she claims that her house was searched without a warrant which if true, would violate the 4th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States and at 2:26 she claims that the stolen intellectual property was PLANTED in her house in California. At 2:57 she claims that the FBI are involved (they were not) and that her case in under seal so that no attorney can represent her or defend her, or they would be found in contempt of court, which if true would of course violate too many Constitutional norms to enumerate but yes, basically ALL of them are being denied her… according to her.

The actual Criminal charges vs. the wild claims by Dr. Mikovits

In 2006 Dr. Judy Mikovits was hired as Research Director for a private foundation associated with UNR called Whittemore Peterson Institute for Neuro-Immune Disease (WPI) in Reno, NV which was created by a very wealthy couple comprised of an attorney and a businessman whose daughter suffers from “Chronic Fatigue Syndrome” in an effort to find a cure for their daughter. When Dr. Mikovits went to work at WPI, her contract included clauses not unlike what is included when I do litigation support research for attorneys: her contract states that any and all of her work product belongs to WPI, she may retain NO COPIES of any of it. She most certainly was not authorized to remove any work product from WPI. To do so, is theft of intellectual property.

Dr. Mikovits was fired from WPI for refusing to turn over a cell sample shipment received at her lab to another researcher at the institute on September 29, 2011, the details of which are outlined in witness Max Proft’s affidavit. (link below)

After Dr. Mikovits' departure, WPI discovered that 12 to 20 laboratory notebooks and flash drives containing years of research data were missing. In an initial statement through her attorney, Dr. Mikovits stated that she had received notice of her firing from WPI on her cell phone and immediately left Nevada for her home near Ventura, California. Dr. Mikovits denied having the notebooks and, in fact, Dr. Mikovits’ attorney was requesting that the lab notebooks be returned to her so that she could continue to work on the grants she won while employed at the WPI and fulfill her responsibilities on these government grants and corporate contacts.

After WPI reported a theft to the University of Nevada police, and an investigation was launched and a subordinate research assistant and TENANT of Dr. Mikovits’ in Reno named Max Pfost, provided a sworn affidavit detailing his own complicity in stealing the notebooks and delivering them to Dr. Mikovits. His sworn affidavit was the basis of the warrant for Dr. Mikovits’ arrest and the search of her home in California. I recommend reading his affidavit in full because it provides a lot of relevant details in both the civil and criminal cases:

http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/268451-exh-1-reply-iso

Following Dr. Mikovits’ arrest, a second researcher at WPI named Amanda McKenzie also provided a sworn affidavit in which she attests that Dr. Mikovits asked her to remove laboratory samples and other materials from WPI and deliver them to another researcher who is a co-author of Dr. Mikovits’ now-discredited research paper and one of two of the four authors of that study who refuses to retract the study, the other one being Dr. Mikovits. According to her affidavit, Amanda McKenzie declined to do cooperate with Dr. Mikovits’ plans.

Contrary to Dr. Mikovits’ claim in “Plandemic Documentary” that she was arrested without warrant, held in jail without charges and additionally, her home searched without warrant, in fact, warrants for her arrest and the search and recovery of stolen property at her home WERE issued by the University of Nevada at Reno Police Department November 17, 2011. Dr. Mikovits was arrested at her California home on November 18, 2011 and charged with two felonies: 1. possession of stolen property and 2. unlawful taking of computer data, equipment, supplies, or other computer-related property. She was held without bail for 5 days while awaiting arraignment and hearing on extradition to Nevada - which she waived - after 18 laboratory notebooks belonging to WPI, as well a computer and other items were recovered from her home following the warranted search. The criminal charges were later dismissed without prejudice pending the outcome of the civil trial against Dr. Mikovits for losses related to the stolen but mostly recovered notebooks. The “gag order” Dr. Mikovits refers to relates to the civil lawsuit WPI filed against her which Dr. Mikovits LOST and as a result, was ordered to pay attorney fees and damages to WPI. She chose to declare bankruptcy rather than pay. Frankly, she should never have stolen the notebooks, because she KNEW that her contract with WPI stipulated that all laboratory work product belonged to them, including the all-important notebooks. Unfortunately, I think she felt like she had to steal them because at the time she was still trying to claim her study was valid and adjust testing parameters for the XMRV virus that would create more positive test results from her patients, as noted in the edited abstract of her published study. The notebooks are essential documentation of all the laboratory’s methods.

In two sworn affidavits, Max Pfost details how Dr. Mikovits told him that “WPI was going down” and that she was going to see to it that at least half of a $1.5M R01 grant from the US National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease would follow her to a new employer. According to his affidavit:

“She stated she was going to try to move the R01 grant and the Department of Defense grants and stop the Lipkin study.”

The Lipkin study was a multi-centre trial, headed by Ian Lipkin, a virologist at Columbia University in New York, trying to prove or disprove once and for all Mikovits’s largely discredited hypothesis that Chronic Fatigue Syndrome is caused by a mysterious family of retroviruses, among them XMRV.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3448165/

The Lipkin study was commissioned by DR. ANTHONY FAUCI and this, is where Dr. Mikovits’ true resentment and subsequent slanderous accusations against Dr. Fauci originate. Dr. Fauci may have cost Dr. Mikovits at least $750k in federal grant money by insisting on additional peer-reviewed research of her failed attempt to link the XMRV virus to Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.
https://www.virology.ws/2011/05/06/ian-lipkin-on-xmrv/comment-page-4/

Who is Judy Mikovits and what is she even talking about?

In 1992 she earned a Ph.D. in biochemistry and molecular biology from George Washington University. Her Ph.D. thesis was entitled “Negative Regulation of HIV Expression in Monocytes” and her empirical thesis research relates to repressor proteins that could inhibit HIV DNA from replicating. Her only published paper on HIV is not suppressed. In fact, this very documentary claims it its’ very first moments that Dr. Mikovits DID revolutionize the testing/treatment of HIV/AIDS so… did she or didn’t she? Her thesis is available here:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2187891/

Dr. Mikovits did do some post-graduate DNA research in molecular virology at the Laboratory of Genomic Diversity, National Cancer Institute, although she published zero research during her years there. Ze-ro. If Dr. Fauci stole her homework then… where is this 1999 paper she claims she had “in publication”? She doesn’t have a copy? Her research associates don’t???

It was while working for WPI in 2009 that Dr. Mikovits published the only significant research paper of her career in the journal Science, entitled “Detection of an infectious retrovirus, XMRV, in blood cells of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome”, in which she and four other colleagues claimed to have found genetic markers indicating the presence of retroviruses including one called XMRV in the blood products of patients suffering from Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. When no other laboratory could replicate the results Dr. Mikovits published, she went back and altered the protocols for detection to make nearly all the results “positive” for XMRV and other retrovirus, which they concede was done in the edited abstract of their own research paper:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3073172/

By 2011 two of the original researchers including Dr. Lombardi had come to understand that the results they had published were only factually explainable by laboratory contamination and partially retracted their research, later petitioning to have their names removed from the study entirely:

“Four laboratories tested the samples for the presence of antibodies that react with XMRV proteins. Only WPI and NCI/Ruscetti detected reactive antibodies, both in CFS specimens and negative controls. There was no statistically significant difference in the rates of positivity between the positive and negative controls, nor in the identity of the positive samples between the two laboratories.

These results demonstrate that XMRV or antibodies to the virus are not present in clinical specimens. Detection of XMRV nucleic acid by WPI is likely a consequence of contamination. The positive serology reported by WPI and NCI/Ruscetti laboratories remained unexplained, but are most likely the result of the presence of cross-reactive epitopes. The authors of the study conclude that ‘routine blood screening for XMRV/P-MLV is not warranted at this time’.”

https://www.virology.ws/2011/09/27/trust-science-not-scientists/

This did not stop WPI from bringing to market a laboratory test for XMRV at a cost of $500 to each patient for the financial benefit of WPI, that even Dr. Mikovits did not believe was providing accurate results according to her ”testimony” in “Plandemic Documentary” on YouTube…

https://phoenixrising.me/research-2...onic-fatigue-syndrome-mecfs/xmrv/xmrv-testing

In November 2011 Science published a NINE LABORATORY STUDY that also failed to confirm XMRV or other viruses in the blood of and therefore as a cause of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome in patients.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/334/6057/814

By the end of 2011 Science had issued a full retraction of Dr. Mikovits’ published findings in their journal:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/201...thors-consent-retracts-paper-tied-mouse-virus

Let’s review the rest of the video for fun…

At minute 7:40 Dr. Mikovits begins to falsely claim that the Bayh-Dole Act has “ruined” science by allowing grant recipients to retain ownership claims to their inventions and get rich, but in reality, when it comes to Dr. Fauci (and university researchers similarly under contract with those institutions), by his contractual agreement with NIAID the ownership of those patents, in fact, resides with that agency and thus, with the taxpayers and THAT, is who will receive royalties from the grants Dr. Fauci employed in order to make his discoveries that lead to those patents. Those royalties go 1/2 to the NIAID, a taxpayer-funded agency in order to fund more research grants (like the one Dr. Mikovits has now been denied in light of her unethical practices) and the other 1/2 to the drug manufacturer. I don’t see the problem.

Dr. Fauci and others at HHS applied for their first patent on a method for activating the immune system in mammals in 1995 and it did involve the Il-2 treatments Dr. Mikovits references in the video at minute 7:40, but nothing in the patent is unique to the treatment of HIV/AIDS; it looks like it most applies to use in treating leukemia and in fact, in the Background of the Invention [0010] included with the patent registration it states: “No method of treatment of HIV with IL-2 has been disclosed which results in a sustained response or which yields long-term beneficial results.” So how is it that this Dr. Mikovits sees fit to BLAME Dr. Fauci for AIDS deaths? It’s slanderous.

https://patents.justia.com/patent/20030180254

At 9:17 we are hit with the biggest irony in the world when Dr. Mikovits criticizes Bill Gates’ foundation for helping to fund research (making the FOUNDATION, not Bill Gates himself, possibly eligible for some claim if patents are filed and Stanford v. Roche is the standard that would apply, as it does to all of Dr. Fauci’s patents), when the place that Dr. Mikovits was fired from (WPI) for misappropriating cell samples - the place THROUGH which she was seeking a $1.5M research grant FROM NIAID - is a PRIVATE FOUNDATION that was founded by an attorney and her husband, seeking a cure for their daughter’s Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. WPI contractually had the same rights under Stanford v. Roche to any invention or discovery of hers and after she was fired for misappropriating samples and proven to be a thief of intellectual property, Dr. Mikovits was in danger of losing her own $1.5M grant from NIAID. That’s her real beef here.

So, what is the truth? Did Dr. Mikovits “discover” a dangerous virus causing “plagues of disease” as this “documentary” claims and then finds herself silenced and bankrupted by the Deep State and Big Pharma? No, she absolutely did not. A man named Dr. Robert Silverman “discovered” the XMRV virus in prostate cancer samples and published his own findings attempting to link that virus to disease in 2006.
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.0020025

Dr. Mikovits met Dr. Silverman at a conference in 2007 and at that time Dr. Mikovits decided to start testing her Chronic Fatigue Syndrome patients for the virus, using methods Dr. Silverman actually developed. Dr. Silverman has since stood by HIS discovery of XMRV, but has completely retracted his study linking the virus to the disease of prostate cancer.

“In their new study in PLOS ONE, Silverman and colleagues meticulously retraced their experimental steps to determine the source of XMRV contamination in their cell cultures, which has garnered praise from other researchers. “These scientists put their egos aside and aggressively and relentlessly pursued several lines of investigation to get to the truth," National Cancer Institute researcher Vinay Pathak told ScienceNOW. Pathak was among the researchers who published data that refuted a connection between XMRV and disease.



After publications by Pathak and others, Silverman said he felt convinced that there was an error in his findings. “I felt I couldn't rest until I figured out how it happened,” Silverman told ScienceNOW. “I wanted to get some closure.””

https://www.the-scientist.com/the-nutshell/surprise-xmrv-retraction-40456

Too bad Dr. Mikovits has no such ethics.

This absurd “documentary” then goes on to show video clips of doctors claiming they are being “pressured” to record deaths as Covid-19 but included again is Dr. Erickson, the now-debunked California doctor who DOES NOT ATTEND DYING PATIENTS IN ANY HOSPITAL and therefore, is absolutely NOT “being pressured” to fill out any “death reports”.

At 14:52 Dr. Mikovits validates the claim that the filmmaker makes that doctors and hospitals are being “incentivized” to report cases as Covid-19 and Dr. Mikovits cites the figure of a $13,000 “bonus”?? from Medicare?? That is so laughable. The overwhelming majority of hospitals in the United States are privately owned, so if ANY hospital is pressuring ANY doctor to falsely code Covid-19 claims with an expectation financial gain, that would be Medicare fraud. IS this documentary seriously meaning to allege that widespread Medicare fraud is being perpetrated by U.S. hospitals that doctors are complicit with? That is one hell of an accusation.

Dr. Mikovits works in laboratories and apparently understands very little about medical billing for patients, but I have had to deal with mountains of medical bills in personal injury and medical malpractice, so allow me to explain a few things supplemented with some of the newest information as regards Covid-19 coding and billing:

Patients’ conditions are recorded including using diagnostic codes, for the purposes of billing and also empirical study. Diagnosis coding accurately portrays the medical condition that a patient is experiencing; ICD diagnostic coding accurately reflects a healthcare provider's findings. A healthcare provider’s progress note is composed of four component parts: 1. the patient’s chief complaint, the reason that initiates the healthcare encounter 2. the provider documents his or observations including a review of the patient’s history, a review of pertinent medical systems, and a physical examination. 3. the healthcare provider renders an assessment in the form of a diagnosis 4. a plan of care is ordered. Diagnostic codes are used to justify why medical procedures are performed. If you don’t code a patient for presumptive Covid-19, you cannot order and bill for a Covid-19 test, nor apparently justify hospital quarantine for a Medicare patient without charging the patient an additional co-pay UNLESS you code their diagnosis as Covid-19.

According to official guidance from the CDC, providers should only use code U07.1 to document a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 as documented by the provider, per documentation of a positive COVID-19 test result, or a presumptive positive COVID-19 test result. This also applies to asymptomatic patients who test positive for coronavirus. “Suspected, possible, probable, or inconclusive cases of COVID-19 should not be assigned U07.1” CDC emphasizes in the guidance. Instead, providers should assign codes explaining the reason for the encounter, such as a fever or Z20.828, “Contact with and (suspected) exposure to other viral communicable diseases”.”
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/icd/COVID-19-guidelines-final.pdf

Medicare and Medicaid do not have “set amounts” that are paid based on diagnostic codes. Dr. Mikovits is clearly as misinformed as half the internet right now but here is where they are getting the numbers they are twisting into fiction for their own purposes:

“To project how much hospitals would get paid by the federal government for treating uninsured patients, we look at payments for admissions for similar conditions. For less severe hospitalizations, we use the average Medicare payment for respiratory infections and inflammations with major comorbidities or complications in 2017, which was $13,297. For more severe hospitalizations, we use the average Medicare payment for a respiratory system diagnosis with ventilator support for greater than 96 hours, which was $40,218. Each of these average payments was then increased by 20% to account for the add-on to Medicare inpatient reimbursement for patients with COVID-19 that was included in the CARES Act.

Before accounting for the 20% add on, Medicare payments are about half of what private insurers pay on average for the same diagnoses. In the absence of this new proposed policy, many of the uninsured would typically be billed based on hospital charges, which are the undiscounted “list prices” for care and are typically much higher than even private insurance reimbursement.”
https://www.kff.org/uninsured/issue...ing-the-uninsured-hospitalized-with-covid-19/

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org...-treatment-for-people-with-employer-coverage/

In case you were wondering, the reasons behind the 20% add on for patients diagnosed with Covid-19, are because according to the Kaiser Family Foundation Medicare already typically pays HALF what private insurers do, Medicare does not pay for additional PPE, Covid-19 patients often have the medical necessity of a private hospital room for quarantine purposes which Medicare does not normally cover and finally, the new Covid-19 coding allows hospital providers to bill for services they provide at alternate sites such as parking lot testing sites, convention centers or hotels, something we haven’t dealt with before but for which they obviously deserve to be reimbursed. The $13k/$39k figures are simply what it cost on average in 2017 to care for someone with respiratory illness in a hospital, it is NOT some “bonus” that anyone is receiving. That is a lie.

17:13 Dr. Mikovits claims that hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine has been safely used for 70 years to treat a wide range of illnesses for which the FDA has approved its’ use including lupus and rheumatoid arthritis but unfortunately, that is not the same thing as treating Covid-19, and Dr. Mikovits’ peers have come to very, very different conclusions about its’ application as a treatment for Covid-19:

“Data to support the use of HCQ and CQ for COVID-19 are limited and inconclusive. The drugs have some in vitro activity against several viruses, including coronaviruses and influenza, but previous randomized trials in patients with influenza have been negative (4, 5). In COVID-19, one small nonrandomized study from France (3) (discussed elsewhere in Annals of Internal Medicine [6]) demonstrated benefit but had serious methodological flaws, and a follow-up study still lacked a control group. Yet, another very small, randomized study from China in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 found no difference in recovery rates (7).”
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/...during-covid-19-pandemic-what-every-clinician

“In this phase IIb randomized clinical trial of 81 patients with COVID-19, an unplanned interim analysis recommended by an independent data safety and monitoring board found that a higher dosage of chloroquine diphosphate for 10 days was associated with more toxic effects and lethality, particularly affecting QTc interval prolongation. The limited sample size did not allow the study to show any benefit overall regarding treatment efficacy.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765499

In conclusion, this woman has a serious axe to grind with her peers and even her former collaborating colleagues. Her published research has been completely discredited by a dozen independent studies. This is why we have peer review of scientific claims - in order to discern real fact. Dr. Mikovits was to a receive $1.5M grant from NIAID herself, which she has now lost due to lack of scientific fact and lack of ethics. Sometimes I see a meme on Facebook that says something about how some people believe that scientists are conspiring to lie to them… like, why would scientists lie? They “lie” or more accurately, falsify data because believe it or not, science is even more competitive than the music industry and scientists can’t sell tickets to their show. In order to receive any money for doing science, one needs an expensive education and to be able to publish credible findings.

Dr. Mikovits cannot even be honest or discerning in relaying the truth about her legal issues, so I do not know why anyone would take any testimony by this person about anything with anything other than a large grain of salt and that is the nicest way I can say it.
It has already been discussed.
 

massi83

Full Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2009
Messages
2,596
It is pretty amazing how bad even the professors from Karolinska can be with simple calculations. This guy thinks Spain's infected could have increased 100% since 20.4. He believes that because it is his only hope that Sweden's calculations would not be so totally wrong.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/spanska-virussiffror-kan-var-dubbla

Well, what is the problem, you might ask. Just a simple fact that, the deaths have increased only 28%, so clearly it is impossible that cases increased 100%. How can this be too hard for a professor. They are refuse to doubt themself and thus needlessly kill thousands of people. Just stay the feck on that side of the border. Danes already wisely said that Germans are welcome, but not Swedes, unfortunately I doubt our government will be as wise.
 

sullydnl

Ross Kemp's caf ID
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
34,063
Daily deaths continues to go down in Ireland with 10 confirmed today but the new cases had a big jump to 432 when it had appeared to be heading towards double figures over the past week.

I'm hoping this is due to some kind of back log but no info on that just yet.

Bizarre.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,981
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
It is pretty amazing how bad even the professors from Karolinska can be with simple calculations. This guy thinks Spain's infected could have increased 100% since 20.4. He believes that because it is his only hope that Sweden's calculations would not be so totally wrong.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/spanska-virussiffror-kan-var-dubbla

Well, what is the problem, you might ask. Just a simple fact that, the deaths have increased only 28%, so clearly it is impossible that cases increased 100%. How can this be too hard for a professor. They are refuse to doubt themself and thus needlessly kill thousands of people. Just stay the feck on that side of the border. Danes already wisely said that Germans are welcome, but not Swedes, unfortunately I doubt our government will be as wise.
Hard to follow your point when the linked article isn’t in English. What’s going on here?
 

Arruda

Love is in the air, everywhere I look around
Joined
Apr 8, 2009
Messages
12,584
Location
Azores
Supports
Porto
Just on the nursing homes thing. I think nursing homes were similarly badly hit everywhere. The difference is the % of the elderly population living in them. Countries with the worst mortality per capita tend to have a much bigger proportion of their older citizens living on top of each other in care homes. I had always assumed that the higher the mean age of a population the worse the outcomes. But hadn’t thought that there might also be differences in where the elderly live that drives differring outcomes between countries. Seems obvious but hadn’t occurred to me.

To be clear, that’s not the ONLY reason for inter-country variation. But an important one.
Yes, that makes sense. I missed that completely.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,709
"Speaking causes airborne virus transmission"
"Coronavirus study says droplets caused by talking can last 8-14 minutes" - peer reviewed.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117?mod=article_inline

"Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments."

"It has long been recognized that respiratory viruses can be transmitted via droplets that are generated by coughing or sneezing. It is less widely known that normal speaking also produces thousands of oral fluid droplets with a broad size distribution (ca. 1 μm to 500 μm) (1, 2). Droplets can harbor a variety of respiratory pathogens, including measles (3) and influenza virus (4) as well as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (5). High viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been detected in oral fluids of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)−positive patients (6), including asymptomatic ones (7). However, the possible role of small speech droplet nuclei with diameters of less than 30 μm, which potentially could remain airborne for extended periods of time (1, 2, 8, 9), has not been widely appreciated.

In a recent report (10), we used an intense sheet of laser light to visualize bursts of speech droplets produced during repeated spoken phrases"
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

New Member
Joined
Jul 10, 2013
Messages
16,946
Reality is lots of people will not have/not be able to afford a car and be travelling too far for walking. Not everyone rides a bike. Considering the short notice on the "back to work" message people may also not have had time to get one.

Other counties had 2 weeks notice on changes on policy. We get 24 hours notice in the UK. Irresponsible.
Yep, it’s ridiculous
 

Flying high

Full Member
Joined
Jul 19, 2015
Messages
1,738
Reality is lots of people will not have/not be able to afford a car and be travelling too far for walking. Not everyone rides a bike. Considering the short notice on the "back to work" message people may also not have had time to get one.

Other counties had 2 weeks notice on changes on policy. We get 24 hours notice in the UK. Irresponsible.
That really was bizarre.

'Can we have a plan please?'
'No, now is not the time'
'Can we discuss the next stage?'
'No, it's too early'
...
'Okay, here's our half-assed plan, it starts in the morning, go!'

I remember a time when gross incompetence in government normally lead to a resignation in shame. Now such levels of incompetence come so thick and fast, we're on to the next example of buffoonery before anyone gets a chance to be properly grilled on it.
 

massi83

Full Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2009
Messages
2,596
Hard to follow your point when the linked article isn’t in English. What’s going on here?
There is a built-in translator in chrome at least, so I thought it didn't make much difference if I put the translation. Sorry about that.

The Spain's antibody numbers from yesterday were much much lower than Swedish thought they would be. And press there started to question their assumptions. So this guy was saying that Spain's numbers have doubled since 20.4. which would be closer the numbers Sweden thinks are correct, but even in that case just closer not actually high enough for Tegnell and co to be correct.

Study was done 27.4.-11.5., antibodies take about 2 weeks to develop. So 20.4. Spain has 5% infected. He says it is probably 10% now, a 100% increase. While from 20.4. deaths have increased 28%. So he is either a moron or a liar. Either is not good for this situation.

And if you think, but deaths lag behind. Spain is on a downward slope so the effect works actually in the opposite way, so he is even more wrong than 28% to 100%.

So their case of Stockholm having 26% of people infected is impossible in light of these numbers from Spain,not unlikely, but impossible.

But because of their own hubris and ego they refuse to see it. It is starting to frustrate me a lot, because Finland has a tendency to follow Sweden in everything we do. Which is a good strategy 90% of time. But now it is killing lives and the economy, here and there.

Just tired how selfish people are, thinking about their careers, instead of dealing with the correct numbers and making best possible decisions, in a difficult situation.
 

noodlehair

"It's like..."
Joined
Apr 1, 2004
Messages
16,358
Location
Flagg
Are they effectively saying that if you can’t get to work without using public transport (or at least not at peak times) then you shouldn’t go to work?
No they are saying avoid it if you can. The "packed" pictures of buses and trains aren't great, but they aren't exactly packed compared to how they would be during a normal rush hour. Particularly since there's only a fraction of a normal service running.

There's a lot of melodrama going round and people pretending things are much more confusing than they actually are, and it needs to stop really.

It's an impossible situation to make perfect. A train can have 1000+ people on it. No matter how much they manage to reduce the infections and how long they wait, there's never going to be a point where that doesn't create a significant chance of someone on board having corona virus. That's why they're doing a ton of work to encourage walking and cycling.

I'm sure they are fully aware there will still be packed trains...but a train packed with 500 people at the moment is still a far better situation than 5 trains packed with 1500 people each. THe former still gives a quite realistic chance of 0 spread of the virus, while the later practically guarantees someone's going to pass it on to multiple others.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,981
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
There is a built-in translator in chrome at least, so I thought it didn't make much difference if I put the translation. Sorry about that.

The Spain's antibody numbers from yesterday were much much lower than Swedish thought they would be. And press there started to question their assumptions. So this guy was saying that Spain's numbers have doubled since 20.4. which would be closer the numbers Sweden thinks are correct, but even in that case just closer not actually high enough for Tegnell and co to be correct.

Study was done 27.4.-11.5., antibodies take about 2 weeks to develop. So 20.4. Spain has 5% infected. He says it is probably 10% now, a 100% increase. While from 20.4. deaths have increased 28%. So he is either a moron or a liar. Either is not good for this situation.

And if you think, but deaths lag behind. Spain is on a downward slope so the effect works actually in the opposite way, so he is even more wrong than 28% to 100%.

So their case of Stockholm having 26% of people infected is impossible in light of these numbers from Spain,not unlikely, but impossible.

But because of their own hubris and ego they refuse to see it. It is starting to frustrate me a lot, because Finland has a tendency to follow Sweden in everything we do. Which is a good strategy 90% of time. But now it is killing lives and the economy, here and there.

Just tired how selfish people are, thinking about their careers, instead of dealing with the correct numbers and making best possible decisions, in a difficult situation.
Ah. Ok. I use chrome. Had no idea you could translate. D’oh!

Anyway. That does sound pretty embarrassing from Karolinska guy. Doubling down is never a good look for a scientist. He needs to admit he might have got this wrong. Or lose all credibility.
 

noodlehair

"It's like..."
Joined
Apr 1, 2004
Messages
16,358
Location
Flagg
Reality is lots of people will not have/not be able to afford a car and be travelling too far for walking. Not everyone rides a bike. Considering the short notice on the "back to work" message people may also not have had time to get one.

Other counties had 2 weeks notice on changes on policy. We get 24 hours notice in the UK. Irresponsible.
Yeah it was weird...and it's hardly been made clear exactly who should go back to work either. Our place is still deserted apart from the few of us who have to come in or are doing volunteer work. Nothing is getting done because "can work from home" and people actually doing their jobs when they're sat at home are a million miles from the same thing. It's got to a point where it is creating significant problems with services that are actually quite important...but nothing is going to change when the advice is so all over the place and there's no data being supplied to back anything up.

They're going down the route of ending up having to take furlough away to force employees to drag their workers back in, which isn't exactly going to end well.

Don't get what's wrong with saying "these sectors should start to return to work from this date" and staggering it in order of importance...In fact I can't figure out why this wouldn't be a completely sensible idea.

People aren't going to listen unless they're given at least some basis to trust the advice.
 

Cloud7

Full Member
Joined
Jan 11, 2016
Messages
12,844
After the government reopened restaurants for take away this week, I just had Chinese food for the first time since March. Tasted like a slice of heaven.
 

Jippy

Sleeps with tramps, bangs jacuzzis, dirty shoes
Staff
Joined
Nov 19, 2009
Messages
57,450
Location
Jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams

sammsky1

Pochettino's #1 fan
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
32,841
Location
London
Yeah it was weird...and it's hardly been made clear exactly who should go back to work either. Our place is still deserted apart from the few of us who have to come in or are doing volunteer work. Nothing is getting done because "can work from home" and people actually doing their jobs when they're sat at home are a million miles from the same thing. It's got to a point where it is creating significant problems with services that are actually quite important...but nothing is going to change when the advice is so all over the place and there's no data being supplied to back anything up.

They're going down the route of ending up having to take furlough away to force employees to drag their workers back in, which isn't exactly going to end well.

Don't get what's wrong with saying "these sectors should start to return to work from this date" and staggering it in order of importance...In fact I can't figure out why this wouldn't be a completely sensible idea.

People aren't going to listen unless they're given at least some basis to trust the advice.
Hardcore scaremongering 'Stay at Home’ messaging for 6+ weeks (+ pre China and Italy news) will have embedded deep mental scars.

You can’t reverse that kind of psychological trauma without any confidence boosting news and also allowing furlough scheme and mortgage holiday to remain. On top of that UK Government didn’t allow workforce any time to plan nor provide the transport to get back to work.

This Boris led Government is an endangerment to Britain: dare I say more dangerous than covid19 itself. It’s worse than United’s post SAF handover. You literally couldn’t do it any worse.
 
Last edited:

Man of Steel

Smashed it!!
Joined
Apr 16, 2011
Messages
1,650
Location
I'm doubting people's commitment to Sparkle Motion
"Speaking causes airborne virus transmission"
"Coronavirus study says droplets caused by talking can last 8-14 minutes" - peer reviewed.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/2006874117?mod=article_inline

"Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments."

"It has long been recognized that respiratory viruses can be transmitted via droplets that are generated by coughing or sneezing. It is less widely known that normal speaking also produces thousands of oral fluid droplets with a broad size distribution (ca. 1 μm to 500 μm) (1, 2). Droplets can harbor a variety of respiratory pathogens, including measles (3) and influenza virus (4) as well as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (5). High viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been detected in oral fluids of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)−positive patients (6), including asymptomatic ones (7). However, the possible role of small speech droplet nuclei with diameters of less than 30 μm, which potentially could remain airborne for extended periods of time (1, 2, 8, 9), has not been widely appreciated.

In a recent report (10), we used an intense sheet of laser light to visualize bursts of speech droplets produced during repeated spoken phrases"
Interesting stuff. I think this has been suggested before a few times hasn't it, and it seems like a good enough reason to wear masks in indoor environments, although that still leaves eyes open and unprotected.

I don't think it mentions an area of spread or coverage of the droplets in that report does it? Do the speech droplets carry more than the recommended social distancing of 2 metres?

I'm thinking if you talked forcefully, shouted or laughed, that the area would be significantly larger than that, especially in 'stagnant' enclosed indoor places. Also if air flow is moving in your direction (ie from behind the person talking), then you'd get those droplets blown into your face wouldn't you? So be aware of air currents too?

I've been very wary about chatting to people indoors, and have tried to keep my distance and keep chats short and sweet.
 

MoskvaRed

Full Member
Joined
Sep 24, 2013
Messages
5,232
Location
Not Moskva
Hardcore scaremongering Stay at Home’ messaging for over 6 weeks (plus the Pre China and Italy news) will have embedded deep scars.

You can’t reverse that psychological trauma without any confidence boosting news and allowing furlough scheme and mortgage holiday to also remain. On top of that UK Government didn’t allow workforce any time to plan nor provide the transport to get back to work.

This Boris led Government is an endangerment to Britain: dare I say more dangerous than covid19 itself. It’s worse than United’s post SAF handover. You literally couldn’t do it any worse.
The facts-free bluster required to win a Brexit war is totally unsuited to the technical challenges of dealing with a virus. Artfully ruffled hair and a few classically-inspired gags don’t do the trick against this opponent. I never thought I’d miss Theresa May but she would do a lot better in these circumstances.
 

Irwin99

Full Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2018
Messages
9,385

More doom and gloom so apologies there, but it sounds like winter could be a tough time for health services if this thing is still prevalent (and the usual seasonal flu)
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,075
Location
Centreback
That really was bizarre.

'Can we have a plan please?'
'No, now is not the time'
'Can we discuss the next stage?'
'No, it's too early'
...
'Okay, here's our half-assed plan, it starts in the morning, go!'

I remember a time when gross incompetence in government normally lead to a resignation in shame. Now such levels of incompetence come so thick and fast, we're on to the next example of buffoonery before anyone gets a chance to be properly grilled on it.
The Tories were rewarded for the utter shambles they made of Brexit with reelection. I think Britain must be self destructive or masochistic or both.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,075
Location
Centreback
She is a liar, plagiarist and proven fraudster. An anti-vaxxer who stole results from someone else's study of a different disease and published it trying to prove that a virus caused chronic fatigue syndrome. The was published in Science. When other researchers tried to replicate the findings it rapidly became apparent that the study was a fraud. She was sacked, arrested for the theft of the other researcher's data but her employer decided not to press charges. She hasn't been silenced or any of the things she claims. She is simply a dangerous, dishonest, tin foil hat wearing nutjob.

If she says something assume it is a lie. If she tells you it is dark outside at midnight have a look outside to check.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
18,275
Supports
Aston Villa
Great to have some working antibody tests at last, long overdue.

I'd love to know how many in U.K have already had the disease in some form. It has to be a few million at least. Some professor on BBC newscast right now was predicting half the population may of had it already although that seems too good to be true.
 

worldgonemad

Full Member
Joined
Jan 31, 2011
Messages
817
Location
york
The Tories were rewarded for the utter shambles they made of Brexit with reelection. I think Britain must be self destructive or masochistic or both.
Or perhaps the other options were far more terryfying? For what its worth brexit only could happen once they were re elected. The 3 years or so prior to the election were a shamefull story of politicians from all parties willfully ignoring and delaying at all costs the vote of the people.....

That's all for another thread no doubt it will be pointed out.
Its a shame that some of the very good discussions in this thread have been clouded by obvious political bias and agenda.
This pandemic is without doubt the largest global event so far in my lifetime. Its fascinating and terryfying at the same time. My livelihood, which i have worked at for 25 yrs is at a genuine point of perhaps not being salvageable. I dont blame the tories for this as i see people dealing with loss at every level in almost every country far greater than mine. There are failings in our country for sure. Largest in my mind are the horrendous levelsof death in care homes, given that it was widely reported in other countries prior to it happening here.
Sadly, yet again there have been huge failings globaly. By that i mean communication and collaboration between countries.
China suppressing information initially ( at the very least) then protecting its interests by allowing people out but not in. The eu ignoring pleas for help from member states for financial and other help. Countries denying the virus would affect them ( trump and Brazil spring to mind)
People seem mainly to be 'blaming' and looking for scapegoats, fuelled by clickbait and a rabid press and inaccurate reporting, fuelling fear at the cost of truth.
I think this virus could be genuinly a turning point for the future. If countries can accept that global communications and integrity is not a sign of weakness, if a global financial agreement is put in place to compensate countries for being honest and pro active then maybe this sort of shit storm can be avoided in the future.
I think most of us here have seen the numbers, eye-watering numbers of deaths and financially as well, but also mainly we have looked at these on a country by country basis, whos doing better or worse than italy, spain, uk, Sweden etc. When will our, or their lockdown end.
Tragically there appears to have been very little pro active debate on here or globally about how to minimise loss of life or econonically. Ive not seen any reporting of heads of different nations acting as a group to share resources and knowledge globally and this is a shame. Things like that would have such a positive effect i think, rather than the negative poison we are fed by the press.

Went off on a tangent there and not having a go at you wibbs in particular but party politics is in my mind largely irrelevant right now.
 

worldgonemad

Full Member
Joined
Jan 31, 2011
Messages
817
Location
york
Great to have some working antibody tests at last, long overdue.

I'd love to know how many in U.K have already had the disease in some form. It has to be a few million at least. Some professor on BBC newscast right now was predicting half the population may of had it already although that seems too good to be true.
That would be amazing news if true, do you have a link? It does seem to me that over the last few days, at least in the uk and over europe we are turning a corner. New cases falling, deaths falling, and in the uk deaths in care homes falling and accurate testing now being available. Still worrying in Russia and Brazil though but the more we learn about the disease the more globally we can do to protect the population in the subsequent waves.
I think the way this disease attacks particular demographics is perhaps a weakness it has that can help us. The elderly, people of bame backgrounds, diabetics, obese, people with copd. Maybe we can protect more carefully people from these highly at risk groups while allowing less at risk groups to return to normal wherever possible?
 

golden_blunder

Site admin. Manchester United fan
Staff
Joined
Jun 1, 2000
Messages
120,096
Location
Dublin, Ireland
Or perhaps the other options were far more terryfying? For what its worth brexit only could happen once they were re elected. The 3 years or so prior to the election were a shamefull story of politicians from all parties willfully ignoring and delaying at all costs the vote of the people.....

That's all for another thread no doubt it will be pointed out.
Its a shame that some of the very good discussions in this thread have been clouded by obvious political bias and agenda.
This pandemic is without doubt the largest global event so far in my lifetime. Its fascinating and terryfying at the same time. My livelihood, which i have worked at for 25 yrs is at a genuine point of perhaps not being salvageable. I dont blame the tories for this as i see people dealing with loss at every level in almost every country far greater than mine. There are failings in our country for sure. Largest in my mind are the horrendous levelsof death in care homes, given that it was widely reported in other countries prior to it happening here.
Sadly, yet again there have been huge failings globaly. By that i mean communication and collaboration between countries.
China suppressing information initially ( at the very least) then protecting its interests by allowing people out but not in. The eu ignoring pleas for help from member states for financial and other help. Countries denying the virus would affect them ( trump and Brazil spring to mind)
People seem mainly to be 'blaming' and looking for scapegoats, fuelled by clickbait and a rabid press and inaccurate reporting, fuelling fear at the cost of truth.
I think this virus could be genuinly a turning point for the future. If countries can accept that global communications and integrity is not a sign of weakness, if a global financial agreement is put in place to compensate countries for being honest and pro active then maybe this sort of shit storm can be avoided in the future.
I think most of us here have seen the numbers, eye-watering numbers of deaths and financially as well, but also mainly we have looked at these on a country by country basis, whos doing better or worse than italy, spain, uk, Sweden etc. When will our, or their lockdown end.
Tragically there appears to have been very little pro active debate on here or globally about how to minimise loss of life or econonically. Ive not seen any reporting of heads of different nations acting as a group to share resources and knowledge globally and this is a shame. Things like that would have such a positive effect i think, rather than the negative poison we are fed by the press.

Went off on a tangent there and not having a go at you wibbs in particular but party politics is in my mind largely irrelevant right now.
Imho politics is never more important if things are being handled badly, which many people believe
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,913
Location
Cheshire
Tragically there appears to have been very little pro active debate on here or globally about how to minimise loss of life or econonically.
There has been plenty of pro active debate on here, go back through the nearly 900 pages and there is lots in there.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
18,275
Supports
Aston Villa
That would be amazing news if true, do you have a link? It does seem to me that over the last few days, at least in the uk and over europe we are turning a corner. New cases falling, deaths falling, and in the uk deaths in care homes falling and accurate testing now being available. Still worrying in Russia and Brazil though but the more we learn about the disease the more globally we can do to protect the population in the subsequent waves.
I think the way this disease attacks particular demographics is perhaps a weakness it has that can help us. The elderly, people of bame backgrounds, diabetics, obese, people with copd. Maybe we can protect more carefully people from these highly at risk groups while allowing less at risk groups to return to normal wherever possible?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000j50y/the-coronavirus-newscast-series-1-14052020

It's within the first 5 minutes or so.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,075
Location
Centreback
Or perhaps the other options were far more terryfying? For what its worth brexit only could happen once they were re elected. The 3 years or so prior to the election were a shamefull story of politicians from all parties willfully ignoring and delaying at all costs the vote of the people.
Nobody came out with any credit but the government were meant to be in charge and engineered the whole shambles. Utterly shameful and immoral from Cameron onwards.

Its a shame that some of the very good discussions in this thread have been clouded by obvious political bias and agenda.
You can't avoid the politics when the political party in charge have done such an appallingly bad job. Only perhaps out incompetented by Trump.

This pandemic is without doubt the largest global event so far in my lifetime. Its fascinating and terryfying at the same time. My livelihood, which i have worked at for 25 yrs is at a genuine point of perhaps not being salvageable. I dont blame the tories for this as i see people dealing with loss at every level in almost every country far greater than mine. There are failings in our country for sure. Largest in my mind are the horrendous levels of death in care homes, given that it was widely reported in other countries prior to it happening here.
No matter what all countries will suffer economically but the Tories criminally negligent performance has not only cost many lives but also made the economic damage far wider, deeper and ongoing that necessary. A few countries have dealt with it well and those are what we should be comparing to.

Sadly, yet again there have been huge failings globaly. By that i mean communication and collaboration between countries.
China suppressing information initially ( at the very least) then protecting its interests by allowing people out but not in. The eu ignoring pleas for help from member states for financial and other help. Countries denying the virus would affect them ( trump and Brazil spring to mind)
People seem mainly to be 'blaming' and looking for scapegoats, fuelled by clickbait and a rabid press and inaccurate reporting, fuelling fear at the cost of truth.
I think this virus could be genuinly a turning point for the future. If countries can accept that global communications and integrity is not a sign of weakness, if a global financial agreement is put in place to compensate countries for being honest and pro active then maybe this sort of shit storm can be avoided in the future.
I think most of us here have seen the numbers, eye-watering numbers of deaths and financially as well, but also mainly we have looked at these on a country by country basis, whos doing better or worse than italy, spain, uk, Sweden etc. When will our, or their lockdown end.
Tragically there appears to have been very little pro active debate on here or globally about how to minimise loss of life or econonically. Ive not seen any reporting of heads of different nations acting as a group to share resources and knowledge globally and this is a shame. Things like that would have such a positive effect i think, rather than the negative poison we are fed by the press.

Went off on a tangent there and not having a go at you wibbs in particular but party politics is in my mind largely irrelevant right now.
I have a thick skin anyway :)

As for the highlighted bit, the NZ PM attended the last Australia national cabinet meeting. If we can both get our infections even further down then a NZ/AU travel bubble is being proposed to help both economies with the possible addition of pacific nations who eradicate the virus.

While much of what you say about international cooperation is true and the attempt by BoJo, Scomo and Trump (and no doubt others) to either distract from their own terrible job or just to progress an anti-chinese agenda is rather shameful. China was far more open and forthcoming than they usually are and without the early sharing of data and genome information we would be much worse off now particularly in the speed of vaccine development.

And some good new regarding vaccine development. Could be sooner than we thought.

https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury...el-prize-and-i-don-t-give-a-s-20200506-p54qhb
 

sglowrider

Thinks the caf is 'wokeish'.
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Messages
25,217
Location
Hell on Earth
:rolleyes:
There has been plenty of pro active debate on here, go back through the nearly 900 pages and there is lots in there.
I wonder what he thought the previous 900pages were about? Nail colours and whats the freshest look for this summer?