That’s because measles is so insanely infective. I think the R0 is something like 12. The lower the R0 the lower the % you need infected to get herd immunity. Nobody knows the true R0 for sars-cov2 yet but even if it’s as low as 1 (unlikely) you’d need to reach 50%+ infected.
Why do you expect NYC to be more? Seems totally in line with everything, and already implies IFR > 1%. Maybe it is a tad less than Madrid, but as you said, it is expected because of younger population.
They weren't in the same situation as Spain or Italy to start with so i wouldn't say so. Their lesser lockdown is demonstrated in their figures compared to their neighbours surely?
Let us never doubt @Regulus Arcturus Black again.
Yup. It just means that "taking it on the chin" was a potentially catastrophic theory put forward and I wonder how (if at all) Sir Patrick Vallance's perspective on herd immunity has shifted since then given these numbers. Can't ever see that >50% plus threshold being reached without a ginormous death toll. Must be kinda demoralising also for our spanish, italian colleagues and citizens for what they've had to endure and to come out it with only a 5% population immunity (if we can even say seroprevalance translates as short term and long term immunity)
Sweden had most deaths in the world last week per capita, so not sure I would call it a success story.
Let us doubt @Regulus Arcturus Black again
She was doing better than most leaders enen before then. The way she with the mosque massacre was truly admirable. Now she has approval rates of 92% just as she deserves.
Or differences in the way people live. Sweden is naturally socially distanced. Lower population density and lots of one person households. But, to be fair, they probably took that into account in their strategy. That’s a big take home from all of this. What works well in one country might not work well in every country.
Finally!! Then we can abandon Twitter speculation and get some proper stats from the hidden millions of asymptomatic sufferers (surely we'll all rush to buy from Superdrugs right?). Costs had better be low.
I think there's bound to be an influence of how much a population trusts its government. If you don't trust the government in general, why would you follow their guidance to the letter? I think the Scandinavian countries in general tend to be reasonably trustful of their governments.
Doesn't Australia have fewer cases and fewer deaths per capita than NZ? The feting of her by the media is a bit weird tbh (given eg complete silence in Britain about how well Australia has done).
It'll be either Abbott or Roche both of which have been evaluated and approved by Public Health England and have high sensitivity and specificity claims.
I’m in the same boat and exactly why I have resentment over the masses taking a day to the beach.
£69? The robbing b*******!
Sorry to hear they are still suffering, have the symptoms changed at all ?
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They're going to do 150,000 tests here in Italy from 25 May, for research purposes.
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That’s true. Might also explain why Belgium did so badly. Didn’t they basically not have any government for most of last year?
No idea who @unherd is but that Prof is an odd chap. Doesn’t seem very interested in digging into the science. Only ever tweets or retweets good news stories, even implausible one.
They have already been doing them in some of the regions. In Lombardy we were supposed to be getting licences for travel if we had antibodies but they changed it to 'research purposes' when they realised they couldn't trust the results.
How big a sample size did Roche base their results on? I thought I read it some where where it was tiny?
He said on 29.3. that 50% might have been infected? And you think his forecasts are good? Wow. I don't think more needs to be said.
Those predictions are wrong though. And wrong with his usual over-optimistic bias.
I kinda do, especially now the golf courses are open.Don’t know about you, but I’ve got furlough envy
Unherd is a website that collates usually contrarian-ish opinion pieces from columnists, it can be along the lines of cultural war anti-PC stuff ala Douglas Murray but Tom Chivers posts some decent things on there
that second video in particular is actually quite something. The first guy can be sort of excused because he seems a bit simple in general.Amazing
My thoughts too, the first bloke looks like he is hoping another lockdown happens so he can have more time off work
That woman and her family though, the lack of self awareness is astonishing.
It's no worse than the people who claim a "second wave is coming" when some restrictions are eased.
NZ should be given credit as a nation for voting the right way a few years back.
I think you need to give the calculator back to Essien.
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https://www.roche.com/media/releases/med-cor-2020-05-03.htm
