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Thread on excess deaths. Which seems to be the best way to get a handle on the true extent of the mortality caused by covid. Spoiler. Absolutely miles higher than that being reported.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Thread on excess deaths. Which seems to be the best way to get a handle on the true extent of the mortality caused by covid. Spoiler. Absolutely miles higher than that being reported.
Osterholm basically said the media was overplaying the touch infection transmission. He said you would have to be very unlucky to contract it by touch. He remarked that is was spreading through airborne transmission. Like the influenza. We have influenza season every year and no one went mad cleaning surfaces, becuse it is spread via the air in the form of droplets.
In fairness i was telling people this and no one wanted to believe it. It is too scary to believe that this is spread through breathing air.
I saw that a few weeks ago and couldn't make sense on the UK's figures. Do you have a theory?
I'd say only 50% are even bothering to follow the 2 metre rule from my experience and that's optimistic. My neighbours had bbqs, people staying over and constant visitors.
I'm not stressing about it anymore, the lockdowns over unofficially and has been for over a week. People are idiots nothing we didn't already know.
Guy seems to have a hard on for Trump.
I haven't got the link but it was an economic analysis of the costs of early deaths vs saved lives due to lockdown. It was based on Australian figures and it suggested that in the US where each life saved (or not) has a much higher $ value the econonic cost of letting this get out of control would be much higher.
Even worse than I imagined
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/19/uk-government-pandemic?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/19/uk-government-pandemic?
Why they have such a big disconnect between covid attributed deaths and excess deaths? I’m not actually sure. I don’t fully understand their criteria for attributing a death to covid in the UK. I do know that in Ireland we’ve seen a much bigger gap between official covid deaths and excess deaths in Northern Ireland, as compared to the ROI. So I assume the UK must require a bigger burden of proof before sticking covid on the death cert than Ireland (and most other countries)
No, I meant the excess death figures at 67% the UK are by far the country with the highest excess deaths. But the link posted by @Wibble may have the answer, they estimate that the week long delay between March 16th and March 23th could represent 30k lives.
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54,000 additional in what, 12 weeks? Wow 
Makes sense. Mixed messages and slow to lockdown when speed of response and absolute clarity was essential. Especially in a country that is so well connected with one of Europe’s biggest/most cosmopolitan cities. There was always going to be a huge price to pay for all those packed sports stadia, pop concerts and pubs/clubs while the virus was running riot. Still blows my mind that the PL had to shut down before the government got round to telling it to.
What interests me is why the Uk is so much worse at accurately tracking covid deaths than Ireland (amongst others) They seem to be massively underestimating true mortality. You do have to wonder if it’s a cynical attempt to game the stats. Like Trump and his “best way to keep cases down is not to test” lunacy.
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I'm not sure why this wouldn't be seen as safe by people, it seems perfectly ok to stand in a mile long queue to buy a bag of compost nowadays, and has been to go to my local M&S for 'essentials' for weeks, it's no drama, and most people now have hand sanitiser in their pockets for when events like this are done, tbh if this combined with common sense isn't enough then we're all in trouble.
I'm not saying there aren't idiots out there, who thrive on doing as they please and to hell with everyone else, but that has always been the case, but do gooders and rag newspapers taking long shot pictures of people going about their business to make some sort of shock and awe point making is getting a bit wearing now, as it would if it flips the other way and people just completely forget about any social distancing at all and the papers start glorifying it.
The knobs treating this as a holiday are typically the ones who don't work anyway, those jobless people who never have any intention of working. This is just normal life for them.
Obviously you get quite a few furloughed staff taking the piss, but quite a lot I know seem to be pretty good with the social distancing, self isolating and not being twats.
Yeah most will want to work, many will lose their jobs also. A small minority will enjoy their paid holiday but it's come at a cost. I don't know how people can truly enjoy this time off when services, travel and freedoms are so limited. Even for introverts, it's fun playing video games but not while the world's on fire.
So, for once, the Chinese weren't actually fudging their data?
I think I might have caught and recovered from covid-19 on Monday night. I won't go into the details because it'll make me seem like a massive hypochondriac. But hopefully it was as minor as all that.
That is a very long bow you are drawing.
And most places are only just over the crest of the first wave and at the same time moving into warmer weather.
Good Lord, I love GOP and Fox news talking about making decisions based on science, and how evil Democrat governors are continuing lockdowns without any scientific justification.
This coming from proud climate change deniers.
This coming from proud climate change deniers.
I personally believe China’s numbers are more accurate than doubters in west think.
Their citizen compliance with lockdown, testing and contact tracing was so much more advanced, well drilled and severe than what western nations have endured.
Critically they totally isolated Wuhan so the virus couldn’t reach the mega cities like Beijing, Shanghai and HK.
From what we now know from Europe, it makes total sense that they would suffer less and bounce out faster.
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WTF is he talking about. Contact transmission is normally far less important that transmission from coughs and sneezes. Doesn't mean it doesn't occur and in any case the same people who touch things can cough and sneeze.
It would have been much better if he argued why he thought this was an overreaction rather than the actual response.
you think it needs to be argued that people sitting in the sun should have their wages removed and their families live on nothing for appearing on somebody else’s photograph?
I think that would be rather a waste of everybody’s time.
Some people have lost all sense of reality on both ends of the spectrum
I think it is understandable that people get annoyed when others don't socially distance. I can also see why you think the proposed consequence is a bit OTT. But you just called him a tit (or whatever it was) instead of stating why you disagreed and that was reported as insulting another member (not by the person you criticised BTW) . Minor (thus 1 point instead of 3) but we have to be consistent I'm afraid.
Thanks, mate.That was quick
Joking aside I hope whatever you had was mild.
Not that I was claiming to be anything special. 80% of cases are supposedly asymptomatic, meaning it wouldn't be superhuman to only suffer a short bout if indeed it was the coronavirus.
I didn't feel ill so the only reason I even noticed anything was because I regularly check my pulse ox, blood pressure and temperature. I had a brief spike of abnormal readings and a slight tenderness in my right tonsil on Monday. But it was all back to normal again after a good night's sleep.
I know it's wishful thinking on my part that it was covid-19, but I reckon it was something. My tonsils don't usually react that way unless I've caught something airborne. It probably wasn't ever worth posting tbh, but there's not been much else to talk about for the last 2 months.
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When I say shocking I mean that i think these photos (atleast 90% of them) in the media of people "flouting the rules" are equally as manipulated.
That point slipped my mind and it’s actually the most pertinent point.
Eg: I can wipe down things I use in a gym, but it’s all the sudden heavy breathing that an asymptotic gym rat would exhale that is the danger and inhalation of their droplets is the critical infection route.
Less issues in restaurants and retail but risk is still there as shown in the air circulation demos.
I can’t figure out how to make gyms profitably adhere to required social and physical distancing protocols. Hong Kong route below can’t generate footfall required to make profit unless fees substantially increase.
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I posted a link to a recently-published study about this a couple of pages back. England has a massive problem.
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/d...England-vs.-Europe-and-the-COVID-pandemic.pdf
My wife's gym is really PT focused so they have gone online with PT sessions and group classes quite succesfully. 25% of customers cancelled early on but the rest have stayed and quite liked the online options. Luckily here outside group sessions of up to 10 people are allowed from this weekend. So we are heading back to normal (ish).
Here, some gyms have put equipment outside in fenced off areas where only a set amount of people can enter at a time.
It's probably not a money machine but anyway.
Of course it’s an over reaction but I continue to work from home whilst the vast majority I know are off, and treating this like a massive holiday. If people are happy to go to the beach with their kids frankly the parents could go to work and the kids could go to school.
I’ve even helped out people making their claims for essentially free money and had a few moan about how much they were receiving. And let’s be honest if you have deferred your mortgage and can’t do anything how exactly is 80% of your normal pay not enough?
Plus I live in the South West and I just know in the summer we will have thousands flocking down here spreading the virus. We don’t have the healthcare system to cope with such an increase in cases. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.
Interesting regarding why such high excess deaths for England is Belgium which has a similar high rate. Belgium did all the early measures and went into lockdown sooner yet had a very similar outcome to England and far far worse than those than those around them big or small. I don't think it's as simple as England left it late to lockdown.
Was Belgium's lockdown fairly strict like France is supposed to be?
I've said from day one the furlough scheme was inherently flawed. I've taken a 40% pay cut and am working full time to keep the business afloat, whereas many of my staff have taken a 20% pay cut not to work.
Getting staff to return from furlough isn't the easiest as when transport costs etc are taken into account they're working 45h a week for a few quid. When the staff do return they're often far more difficult to motivate because their mates are having beers in the sun whilst they're at work. Any system where staff are begging management to not be at work is not going to be a good one for business.
If the government insisted on a lockdown there should have been a part time subsidised scheme whereby the government paid 40%, companies paid 50% and the employee worked part time for 90% salary.
In our business it would have been cheaper for the government (we'd have put everyone on a part time contract rather than 65% of people furloughed), better for our business as we'd have the right member of staff doing every job (rather than someone covering 3 jobs they're unfamiliar with.... unproductively) and the employee would be being paid more whilst not pining to be at home and feeling demotivated that they're essentially working for nothing.
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Think pigeon answers this well.
It's not just being there it's getting there too, and using public toilets etc.
Have there been any further studies done on how temperature affects the virus? Italy has been getting back towards normal for 2.5 weeks now. People are out and about and distancing measures are not exactly being strictly adhered to, but there has been no rise in cases. It's also starting to get properly hot here now.
I know the virus has spread in Middle Eastern countries and Singapore, but that's been largely down to their slave labour camps where people live 10 to a room.
That's what I've been wondering. Why are cases continuing to fall in London 9 days after public transport reached near capacity. Many virologists initially predicted that the virus would fade in the summer with the second peak in autumn/winter.
Yeah I agree that lockdown has basically disintegrated, but i think part of that it that it was so weak to begin with and that the rules are so nonsensical now that people don't really see the point. A number of people (including some of my neighbours) were always going to flout the rules out of sheer stupidity/selfishness, but I think a fair few are forming their own conclusions about what is reasonable in the absence of any clarity or logical consistency from the government - obviously as non-experts with their own self-interest in the mix they are not qualified to do that. Ultimately, anticipating the public's habit of misinterpreting messaging, whether through inability to understand or through conscious exploitation of ambiguous wording, is the government's job. I've been involved in writing guidance (albeit not public health guidance) and most of the work is ensuring there aren't any loopholes and that what you've written can only be interpreted in the way it's intended.
Warm weather wouldn’t explain what’s going on in London as this won’t affect transmissions inside buses or on the tube.
It would be fecking amazing if something else is going on. Although I think it might just be a much longer gap between infection and symptoms than we thought. Same reason it took much longer for lockdown to flatten the curve than you’d think based on a one week incubation.