SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[11101]

Is there any research on why that is the case (after you take out the age, health, smoking, obesity factors)? It seems even some young, healthy folks end up in treatment - so has any link based on say blood type etc established?

There has been some talk of those with higher levels of ACE2 receptors getting more serious cases, but i'd be lying if i said i knew what that actually means.

The cases are hugely skewed towards the elderly though, both in number of infections and the seriousness of those infections (one might preclude the other).

 

[Virgil]

I think it's obvious Trump and Boris have decided to let everyone get it and then see about what happens then .

They are not thinking about preventing it or delaying it and as far as they are concerned screw those who die as a result

You really are a sandwich short of a picnic if you truly believe that any leader of any country is taking the attitude of ‘screw those who die’

 

[TMDaines]

The lockdown measures won't be effective until next week. The people who tested positive for the virus probably got it last weekend. If the number of new cases doesn't drop in the next 2 weeks then something is wrong.

The thing is what are the economic and societal costs of the lockdown too. It's got to work or the country is paying a massive price, so many lives will be harmed just through the economic effects, let alone the health effects.

 

[senorgregster]

There has been some talk of those with higher levels of ACE2 receptors getting more serious cases, but i'd be lying if i said i knew what that actually means.

The cases are hugely skewed towards the elderly though, both in number of infections and the seriousness of those infections (one might preclude the other).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41368-020-0074-x

It has been reported that ACE2 is the main host cell receptor of 2019-nCoV and plays a crucial role in the entry of virus into the cell to cause the final infection. To investigate the potential route of 2019-nCov infection on the mucosa of oral cavity, bulk RNA-seq profiles from two public databases including The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Functional Annotation of The Mammalian Genome Cap Analysis of Gene Expression (FANTOM5 CAGE) dataset were collected. RNA-seq profiling data of 13 organ types with para-carcinoma normal tissues from TCGA and 14 organ types with normal tissues from FANTOM5 CAGE were analyzed in order to explore and validate the expression of ACE2 on the mucosa of oral cavity. Further, single-cell transcriptomes from an independent data generated in-house were used to identify and confirm the ACE2-expressing cell composition and proportion in oral cavity. The results demonstrated that the ACE2 expressed on the mucosa of oral cavity. Interestingly, this receptor was highly enriched in epithelial cells of tongue. Preliminarily, those findings have explained the basic mechanism that the oral cavity is a potentially high risk for 2019-nCoV infectious susceptibility and provided a piece of evidence for the future prevention strategy in dental clinical practice as well as daily life.

Another recent paper (take with a grain of salt, I suspect peer review process is not at its best right now).

No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to nonsmoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen

 

[Drawfull]

The lockdown measures won't be effective until next week. The people who tested positive for the virus probably got it last weekend. If the number of new cases doesn't drop in the next 2 weeks then something is wrong.

Didn't think of that, thanks for pointing it out.

 

[Revan]

So can someone please clarify my understanding? I could ask the reporter at work but I fear looking like a moron. But is this UK's strategy:

- Let the infection spread to get "herd immunity"

But this means:

- up to 1% of the population may die as a consequence but that is..... OK?

The calculation is probably made that 1-2% of the population is gonna die from it anyway.

- There is no proof that if you already had it, you won't get it again or a different strand

Fair point, though it is likely that even if it returns, there will be some immunity, and so the fatality rate the second time it will be much lower. Flu and coronavirus specific colds returns, but typically not for several years. Until then, we might have a vaccine. Also, the Spanish flu (different virus, but in term of global impact, probably the closest we have to this), in the second wave it barely affected those who had it during the first wave.

- The more people that get infected, isn't there a chance it evolves quicker?

I guess so, but again, probably the calculation is done that it will inevitably happen in either case.

For what is worth, I don't agree with UK's and US' strategy. I think it is crazy. China and South Korea are showing that there are ways of controlling it, and with the other countries having a head start, it should not have been this bad.

 

[Hugh Jass]

Definitely. The scary shit is the lack of available medical capacity seemingly inflating the death percentage.

I've been isolating for a couple of weeks, trying to be pre-emptive, but it's clearer the past few days that that's pointless.

People have to eat. Thus you have to go out and buy food. There is a great quote saying that any civilization is three meals away from anarchy.

There is a rumour going around in my country (Ireland) that the government will draft in the army and shut down the country for good. I have stockpiled enough food for two weeks if that happens. After that i am fecked, if it does happen.

 

[Revan]

Does it matter which deity you pray to?

In order to work, it needs to be Jesus. It is working for mass shootings after all.

 

[11101]

I live in a building that is inhabited predominantly by the elderly so my flatmate and I are putting up a flyer on the main entrance offering our help to all the residents with their grocery/pharmacy shopping. That way we have something to do during the quarantine and don't get bored out of our minds, and we also help reduce the overall number of people being exposed. I wish the hospital lets me back in so I can do actual work instead of this but it's all I can do right now.

So you didn't have it then?

A friend is a doctor in Milan and is having to work from quarantine because the hospital can't afford to have them at home, they need the manpower.

What do you think of the arthritis drug they have been talking about?

So under a lockdown, how are deliveries to supermarkets handled? Do the army step in and take over?

Trucks are still allowed to drive and make deliveries. Must be a dream for them with no cars on the road.

 

[VP89]

Italy keeps getting worse.

7% death rate in Italy what the feck!

 

[worldgonemad]

Italy keeps getting worse.

Can somebody please tell me if im wrong , but does this mean that in italy the overall mortality rate is 13. 9 percent!

 

[DOTA]

Can somebody please tell me if im wrong , but does this mean that in italy the overall mortality rate is 13. 9 percent!

The mortality rate of those who have tested positive is high. Most people who have it won't have been tested.

I'm confused as to your maths there though.

 

[worldgonemad]

7% death rate in Italy what the feck!

I,m going with youre figures but omfg , that is still off the chain!

 

[Hugh Jass]

A severe case of influenza feels like that. I've had one. It was awful and then I got pneumonia.

A mild case of influenza does not and is common. It's not distinguishable from a cold to the average person.

This.

They did a study about this where people thought they had a cold, but it was actually a mild case of the flu. Granted though, full on flu means you cannot get out of bed.

The last time i had full on flu, i sweating like a tank and had a headache. My vision was off as well. That was years ago so i cannot remember it exactly.

More than likely i have had the flu since then but only mild.

 

[Revan]

7% death rate in Italy what the feck!

Really old population, and probably the highest level of socialization in "Western" Europe.

 

[Ian Reus]

In order to work, it needs to be Jesus. It is working for mass shootings after all.

Discrimination against his half brother down below.

 

[11101]

Can somebody please tell me if im wrong , but does this mean that in italy the overall mortality rate is 13. 9 percent!

7%

They no longer test anybody who doesn't have symptoms, so you can double the confirmed cases, at least. Also the second highest number of over 65s in the world, massive smoking rates, and very sociable people. Perfect storm.

 

[Vidyoyo]

No. It ranges from totally asymptomatic to feeling a bit under the weather to can't breathe without medical intervention. It's impossible to positively diagnose without specific tests, but it is possible to rule it out from regular flu with a stethoscope according to doctors here.

Very good to know. Thanks.

 

[senorgregster]

This.

They did a study about this where people thought they had a cold, but it was actually a mild case of the flu. Granted though, full on flu means you cannot get out of bed.

The last time i had full on flu, i sweating like a tank and had a headache. My vision was off as well. That was years ago so i cannot remember it exactly.

More than likely i have had the flu since then but only mild.

I was beginning to suspect this. My whole life I was told you will know when you had the flu. Didn't know anyone who was diagnosed formally until a few weeks back. Four of us had identical symptoms and only had 1 or 2 days in bed.

 

[horsechoker]

The thing is what are the economic and societal costs of the lockdown too. It's got to work or the country is paying a massive price, so many lives will be harmed just through the economic effects, let alone the health effects.

Italy will go into recession I'm almost certain of that but Italy also has the oldest population in Europe and the 2nd in the world, this is why the death count is high but also it will be much higher if such drastic measure aren't put in place. The health service is struggling to cope, if businesses were to open as normal and have more people getting infected then it would collapse. The economy will suffer no doubt, but doing nothing will be far worse for the economy, well-being of citizens and the health service.

It's either you go out of business or you go out of business a bit later and your grandparents are dead.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Truedeau's wife has it but he's not getting tested because he doesn't have any symptoms, either.

Only a matter of time, though. Trump, Boris, and Justin will all get it.

I can’t even imagine a scenario in which world leaders aren’t getting a mandatory test every single day.

Especially in those countries in which they’re putting economic impact front and centre of health policy decisions.

They don’t need to declare a positive test if it happens. But surely they must be getting tested.

 

[Fully Fledged]

The Tory strategy is massively risky. It has to be a Cummings invention. If the popular strategy fails governents can blame the WHO or the 'consensus'. If the Tory strategy fails then its all on them. Governments may be following the consensus against their own information for that reason though.

The Sun readers are giving him a free pass. It's all on the bat eating Chinese. Any one who has a relative die from it should just sue China.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Why are people still getting on cruise ships?

 

[Adzzz]

Truedeau's wife has it but he's not getting tested because he doesn't have any symptoms, either.

Only a matter of time, though. Trump, Boris, and Justin will all get it.

Yep. Stands to reason that people in most contact with others/around the globe will get it first, also I suppose that world leaders tend to be on the older side, Trudeau aside of course.

 

[Vidyoyo]

I live in a building that is inhabited predominantly by the elderly so my flatmate and I are putting up a flyer on the main entrance offering our help to all the residents with their grocery/pharmacy shopping. That way we have something to do during the quarantine and don't get bored out of our minds, and we also help reduce the overall number of people being exposed. I wish the hospital lets me back in so I can do actual work instead of this but it's all I can do right now.

What a nice bunch of lads

 

[JPRouve]

Is there any research on why that is the case (after you take out the age, health, smoking, obesity factors)? It seems even some young, healthy folks end up in treatment - so has any link based on say blood type etc established?

The problem is that apparently viruses like the coronavirus constantly evolve and they suspect that the virus in Italy, China and France aren't exactly the same and have slightly different characteristics. They are studying them and will have answers in the future but today it's a bit early.

 

[11101]

The lockdown measures won't be effective until next week. The people who tested positive for the virus probably got it last weekend. If the number of new cases doesn't drop in the next 2 weeks then something is wrong.

A small piece of positivity, the original lockdown towns from 3 weeks ago are seeing almost no new cases now, and Lombardy which went into lockdown ahead of the rest of Italy on Saturday saw a slowdown in new cases today. Hopefully its not a one off.

 

[Ian Reus]

All schools closed in peru. Also, no hoarding, also no flights in or out.

But there isn't a national health service here so they have to mitigate through other means.

11-12 million people in Lima and it is estimated only 40% have health insurance.
It is also estimated that out of the million or so Venezuelan migrants, only 2% have health insurance.
This could look like an apocalyptic by the time it sweeps through.

And it is 30 degrees daily here until around June.

28 cases in Lima now.

 

[Dante]

Italy keeps getting worse.

7.2% case fatality rate.

That's genuinely terrifying. 1 out of every 14 people who've caught the disease there are dead.

 

[horsechoker]

A small piece of positivity, the original lockdown towns from 3 weeks ago are seeing almost no new cases now, and Lombardy which went into lockdown ahead of the rest of Italy on Saturday saw a slowdown in new cases today. Hopefully its not a one off.

Yeah it might be that lombardy is ahead in the process compared to other regions. The region desperately needs fewer cases due to hospitals struggling.

 

[11101]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41368-020-0074-x

It has been reported that ACE2 is the main host cell receptor of 2019-nCoV and plays a crucial role in the entry of virus into the cell to cause the final infection. To investigate the potential route of 2019-nCov infection on the mucosa of oral cavity, bulk RNA-seq profiles from two public databases including The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Functional Annotation of The Mammalian Genome Cap Analysis of Gene Expression (FANTOM5 CAGE) dataset were collected. RNA-seq profiling data of 13 organ types with para-carcinoma normal tissues from TCGA and 14 organ types with normal tissues from FANTOM5 CAGE were analyzed in order to explore and validate the expression of ACE2 on the mucosa of oral cavity. Further, single-cell transcriptomes from an independent data generated in-house were used to identify and confirm the ACE2-expressing cell composition and proportion in oral cavity. The results demonstrated that the ACE2 expressed on the mucosa of oral cavity. Interestingly, this receptor was highly enriched in epithelial cells of tongue. Preliminarily, those findings have explained the basic mechanism that the oral cavity is a potentially high risk for 2019-nCoV infectious susceptibility and provided a piece of evidence for the future prevention strategy in dental clinical practice as well as daily life.

Another recent paper (take with a grain of salt, I suspect peer review process is not at its best right now).

No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to nonsmoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen

I posted a few pages ago that Italy is noticing smokers are more than twice as likely to end up in intensive care.

 

[JPRouve]

7.2% case fatality rate.

That's genuinely terrifying. 1 out of every 14 people who've caught the disease there are dead.

Not exactly. Those are the people that have been tested, many haven't because they don't have symptoms that require a visit to the doctor.

 

[Drawfull]

Why are people still getting on cruise ships?

Not sure why they're still getting on, but my parents (70 and 65) went away last week for 5 weeks Rio to Lisbon. They dithered to the last minute, literally picked the phone up to cancel transfer to airport but went in the end. Now they wish they hadn't. Possible silver lining for them is that it's a small boat, there's extensive screening and the last segment includes the transatlantic part which will almost certainly be cancelled (3 hospital beds, minimal medical staff on board). If the ship gets to Lisbon, they're looking at saying feck it and flying back to UK private. I have told them they're idiots on all counts.

 

[BusbyMalone]

So is Italy particularly unfortunate in this in terms of the severity of it, or is this something that is likely to be replicated in the UK?

 

[Raw]

Some absolute tit was pretending to cough on a pretty busy train I'm on now, got promptly shouted at.

 

[horsechoker]

Some absolute tit was pretending to cough on a pretty busy train I'm on now, got promptly shouted at.

Why was Diego Costa taking a train?

 

[senorgregster]

I posted a few pages ago that Italy is noticing smokers are more than twice as likely to end up in intensive care.

Could be smoking causing lung damage and making their lungs vulnerable rather than ACE2 upregulation though. I'm skeptical just yet.

 

[The Firestarter]

So is Italy particularly unfortunate in this in terms of the severity of it, or is this something that is likely to be replicated in the UK?

If your government continues with its ineptitude, you may not only reach italy levels but Iranian as well.

 

[Drawfull]

People have to eat. Thus you have to go out and buy food. There is a great quote saying that any civilization is three meals away from anarchy.

There is a rumour going around in my country (Ireland) that the government will draft in the army and shut down the country for good. I have stockpiled enough food for two weeks if that happens. After that i am fecked, if it does happen.

Whilst I didn't spend any more than normal on my last food shop online, the balance of goods was markedly different from normal. I bought more ready meals and shit like that. Frozen veg instead of fresh etc. I live alone, if I am careful (small portions, reduced meals generally) - and eat the stuff that's been in freezer for donkeys - I'm OK for a couple months max. Found some 20 month old basmati too. Boom.

 

[11101]

So is Italy particularly unfortunate in this in terms of the severity of it, or is this something that is likely to be replicated in the UK?

Highest number of over 65s in Europe.
Double the smokers of the UK
Very sociable old people

All factors in the high death rate.

However, Italy has double the ICU beds of the UK

Some absolute tit was pretending to cough on a pretty busy train I'm on now, got promptly shouted at.

Glad to hear people are getting frightened. I have elderly parents in the UK.

I'm sick of hearing friends in the UK say we shouldn't panic. We absolutely should. Until people are genuinely afraid of this thing they will not do what is necessary to stop it's spread.