SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[sun_tzu]

Correct, sadly our death total will likely rise by at least 50% once this is added in.

where are you getting your figures that there has been more than 6,500 care home deaths?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Exactly that. They're not really bothered about it. If you get it you get it seems to be the overriding opinion. I think it's coming from the small amount of actual deaths, especially in younger age ranges.. Friends of mine are seeing their livelihoods disappear, decades of savings shrivel... I think people will generally behave for another few weeks but after that it'll be more dangerous to keep people inside than letting them out.

It's the same thing here but for slightly different reasons. Nobody in my circle of friends or family has really been affected by the situation with everyone either still going to the office as if nothing happened or working from home (some on short-time working). And in my case, I work around 30% of my normal hours (being a freelancer) but received a massive cheque from the government that more than covers my losses. So I have a lot of free time and with the weather being brilliant for the last few weeks, this feels like one big holiday more than anything. This thread is actually serving as an anchor pulling me back into reality sometimes and reminding me of some of the heart-breaking stories out there. The general mood on here (perhaps due to the UK being hit harder) is way different to what I see every day. Adherence to social distancing rules from young people is definitely waning, subjectively (I posted a photo of people sitting in the parks picknicking and drinking a few days ago) but also objectively (movement tracking is way up from two weeks ago). So for that reason alone it was very imporant for the government to slighly ease the restrictions yesterday. People need to see a path out of this if you want to ensure they follow the rules.

 

[spiriticon]

where are you getting your figures that there has been more than 6,500 care home deaths?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ronavirus-why-we-dont-know-true-uk-death-toll

 

[balaks]

where are you getting your figures that there has been more than 6,500 care home deaths?

I work in the sector in NI and I know for a fact that the amount of people dieing in care homes here COVID related is at least 50% of what is being reported in NI each day. Not saying that is the case around the rest of the UK but when I see our numbers as being 6-10 each day but I know of at least 2 or 3 in care homes dieing just in my immediate area on the same day I dread to think what the real numbers are all over the country.

 

[NinjaFletch]

That's a fair point, it is nothing but a drop in the ocean in comparisons.
I just feel like Boris and co could easily just give themselves a nice little payday or some bullshit

Well NHS charities trust will have to keep a record of where it's going, so that won't happen!

But aye, I do feel a bit like that. Donations towards the NHS are trying to solve a political (and as we've seen over the past few weeks) and ideological failing with charity, but it's difficult to see how they can begin to scratch the surface of what the healthcare service has been saying they need.

To me it seems a better use of money to donate towards smaller charities where that money would make a huge difference and then put political pressure on the government to fund the NHS properly than to chuck it all into the NHS pot, but hey I was always taught charity is personal and I'm sure it will be put to good use and will make a difference so I don't wanna be snooty about people trying to do good.

 

[blue blue]

Yeh there is plenty of allegations being thrown around with out anything really to back them up, that article is another example.

There is a massive propaganda campaign going on at the moment against all things China, naturally China is responding in kind. So I'm just a bit wary of it all.

Yet you fail to substantiate your claims.

Why are you wary if you have no proof? It is possible that China is partly to blame for the spread of this deadly virus, is it not?

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Angela Merkel telling it like it is. Loosening restrictions will be an incredibly challenging thing to do. Walking a tight-rope.

They've done exceptionally well but there's no way there won't be another lockdown after the restrictions are loosened. Many are in for a rude awakening.

 

[sun_tzu]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ronavirus-why-we-dont-know-true-uk-death-toll

I work in the sector in NI and I know for a fact that the amount of people dieing in care homes here COVID related is at least 50% of what is being reported in NI each day. Not saying that is the case around the rest of the UK but when I see our numbers as being 6-10 each day but I know of at least 2 or 3 in care homes dieing just in my immediate area on the same day I dread to think what the real numbers are all over the country.

Thanks... seems the 50% is in line with other countries as well then - some of which do report and some dont - which of course adds to confusion even more

How do other countries count care home deaths?

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We cannot directly compare care home deaths in the UK with those in other countries as there are different ways of recording these deaths.

In Ireland, France and Germany, official data on deaths includes those in care settings. Of Irish deaths up until 11 April, 54% had occurred in care homes, according to the country’s chief medical officer. Figures released by the French public health authority show 45% of deaths took place in care homes.

Removing care home fatalities from the French statistics reveals that the UK hospital death toll is higher than France’s – which government briefings have failed to note when stating that Britain is behind France in official cumulative death figures.
Italy and Spain, by contrast, do not report deaths in care settings regularly. In Italy, best estimates were based on a survey of 10% of care homes in the country. The death rate in this sample was extrapolated to reach an estimate for all care homes, which suggests 53% of coronavirus deaths were happening in care. In Spain, estimates based on regional totals submitted to the government also suggest those in nursing homes accounted for more than half of deaths.

 

[blue blue]

One reason for extra capacity is in case you need it, in particular in case you need extra ICU beds. The other reason for having extra capacity is because the NHS isn't currently "business as usual".

A lot of their normal work is currently postponed or being turned into phone consultations and advice only hands off sessions. Cancer treatments are being delayed (understandably so as those patients will often be in a high risk covid group). Cancer referrals for diagnostic tests were operating way below normal levels.

Elective surgery like cataracts and joint replacements are on hold. Some A&E and other departments are already reporting that patients with serious (non-covid) symptoms are coming to them late, and sometimes too late.

Excess capacity, more PPE and changes in organisation/locations to allow for better social distancing are all part of the mix. Not just for getting through this covid peak, for getting through the normal ongoing health care needs that still keep requiring attention alongside the pandemic.

This makes sense and hopefully the rest of the NHS service can get back to normal ASAP.

Thanks.

 

[Feed Me]

I only found out yesterday that a lot of care home workers are on zero hour contracts. So will have been incentivised to keep coming into work even if they start feeling unwell. Absolutely shocking state of affairs.

Maybe one for the other thread but I hope that one of the positives coming out of this is an end to zero hour contracts.

A high proportion of delivery drivers are also on zero hours contracts or ‘franchise’ type arrangements that rob them of basic rights like sick pay. It’s a shocking situation which leaves people in a heartbreaking position of having to play roulette with their health because they can’t afford to lose their jobs. There’s a shit tonne of ills in society that I would hope will get seriously reviewed once we are over the hump of this but I won’t hold my breath.

 

[balaks]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/number-coronavirus-pandemic

Quite grim reading here but sadly I suspect very accurate. This is going to go on for a very long time.

 

[arnie_ni]

I work in the sector in NI and I know for a fact that the amount of people dieing in care homes here COVID related is at least 50% of what is being reported in NI each day. Not saying that is the case around the rest of the UK but when I see our numbers as being 6-10 each day but I know of at least 2 or 3 in care homes dieing just in my immediate area on the same day I dread to think what the real numbers are all over the country.

Yea my local newspaper in omagh has reported a few deaths but theres only been 4 or 5 deaths related to covid19 reported in the whole of tyrone. So 50 percent wouldnt shock me

 

[arnie_ni]

Angela Merkel telling it like it is. Loosening restrictions will be an incredibly challenging thing to do. Walking a tight-rope.

Came to post this. Maybe im being stupid but...

Surely the only reason they have got the infection rate to 1 is social distancing and therefore loosening those restrictions will increase in to 1.1 1.2 1.3 etc that she has basically said will ruin their health service?

Or how else do you reduce the infection rate across the board like that?

 

[Sarni]

So seems like half the world is in consensus now that lockdowns/restrictions will have to continue for a long time.

 

[Stick]

I wonder what plan they have for public transport. Can you open restaurants or cinemas who could sit customers a metre away from each other yet let millions of workers sit close for hours on buses and trains. I use 2 buses and a train every day to get my hospital I work at. No chance of social distancing, it's difficult to do that now even with so few passengers on the bus. How would they even achieve this, have more buses/trains and have more staff delegating a certain amount of passengers per bus/train.

Keep as much of the folk working from home where possible maybe? Those that can should cycle and permits on driving to work so as not to create chaos in traffic. Can run more buses more frequently then.

 

[balaks]

Came to post this. Maybe im being stupid but...

Surely the only reason they have got the infection rate to 1 is social distancing and therefore loosening those restrictions will increase in to 1.1 1.2 1.3 etc that she has basically said will ruin their health service?

Or how else do you reduce the infection rate across the board like that?

Yeah that is the problem we face. How do you relax social distancing measures without causing a massive spike in infections?

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Country	Population	Deaths Per Million
Spain	46 Million (approx)	402
Belgium	11 Million (approx)	383
Italy	60 Million (approx)	358
France	65 Million (approx)	263
UK	67 Million (approx)	190
Netherlands	17 Million (approx)	183
Germany	83 Million (approx)	83

Whilst its clear Germany stands out as having clearly managed the situation exceptionally well (at least so far) and of course although most countries seem to think they are at or just past peak there will be some further movement in the figures would it be fair to say that although the UK government has clearly made some (significant) errors (eg not participating in the ventilator scheme, testing of front line NHS staff, PPE ) overall they seem to be doing better than most comparable countries (i.e. EU countries with populations over 10 million and advanced healthcare systems)? at least using the metric of deaths per capita which I think ultimatley probably has to be the most comparable metric amongst nations (given there may be some discrepency over what deaths are linked to CV19 but overall would still seem most comparable)

Is Macron in trouble for his handling in France for example?
Also Belgium seems dramatically different from both Holland and France which seems hard to explain at least when thinking in geographic terms

Seems a pretty pointless table at this point as all countries are at different stages of the timeline. The UK is quite far behind so our numbers will be significantly higher.

Our leader was boasting about shaking hands in Coronavirus wards, then contracted the virus and has been missing ever since. It's fair to say our inept leadership will make our response one of the least effective after the dust has settled.

 

[Blackwidow]

Country	Population	Deaths Per Million
Spain	46 Million (approx)	402
Belgium	11 Million (approx)	383
Italy	60 Million (approx)	358
France	65 Million (approx)	263
UK	67 Million (approx)	190
Netherlands	17 Million (approx)	183
Germany	83 Million (approx)	83

Whilst its clear Germany stands out as having clearly managed the situation exceptionally well (at least so far) and of course although most countries seem to think they are at or just past peak there will be some further movement in the figures would it be fair to say that although the UK government has clearly made some (significant) errors (eg not participating in the ventilator scheme, testing of front line NHS staff, PPE ) overall they seem to be doing better than most comparable countries (i.e. EU countries with populations over 10 million and advanced healthcare systems)? at least using the metric of deaths per capita which I think ultimatley probably has to be the most comparable metric amongst nations (given there may be some discrepency over what deaths are linked to CV19 but overall would still seem most comparable)

Is Macron in trouble for his handling in France for example?
Also Belgium seems dramatically different from both Holland and France which seems hard to explain at least when thinking in geographic terms

The German number is 45...

Are the countries comparable?
The problem is that the countries in the center of Europe are far more connected with each other than the UK is.

 

[Prometheus]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/number-coronavirus-pandemic

Quite grim reading here but sadly I suspect very accurate. This is going to go on for a very long time.

Thanks for posting this.

As I write the UK is reporting more than 10,000 deaths from Covid-19. Due to the realities of collecting data during an infectious disease emergency like this, that is likely to be an underestimate. Again, if we assume this is the peak and there is the same number on the way down that’s 20,000 total from the initial surge. And to get to population immunity you have to multiply that by at least 30: based on the current data, that’s about 600,000 deaths to get there, minimum.

Damn.

 

[11101]

Have we actually got an accurate serological test yet? Italy is planning to start doing them from next week but i didn't know we had found a reliable one yet - https://www.lombardianotizie.online/test-sierologici/

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Came to post this. Maybe im being stupid but...

Surely the only reason they have got the infection rate to 1 is social distancing and therefore loosening those restrictions will increase in to 1.1 1.2 1.3 etc that she has basically said will ruin their health service?

Or how else do you reduce the infection rate across the board like that?

With really early, aggressive testing and contact tracing you might be able to keep the R0 at the same level as lockdown, while removing some of the lockdown measures. Emphasis on “some”. Putting us in lockdown was supposed to buy the government time to ramp up testing and contact tracing capacity. Which has been nowhere near good enough so far.

That’s the ideal scenario anyway. My concern is people acting like idiots and immediately throwing a party as soon as some of the lockdown measures are rolled back. That and asymptomatic spread.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Have we actually got an accurate serological test yet? Italy is planning to start doing them from next week but i didn't know we had found a reliable one yet - https://www.lombardianotizie.online/test-sierologici/

It depends what you mean by reliable. When you’re looking for something with a low prevalence you need a level of sensitivity/specificity that is incredibly hard to achieve. I think we’re going to have to compromise and roll out the best available with an acknowledgment that it will be fundamentally flawed but we’ll have to make do.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

With really early, aggressive testing and contact tracing you might be able to keep the R0 at the same level as lockdown, while removing some of the lockdown measures. Emphasis on “some”. Putting us in lockdown was supposed to buy the government time to ramp up testing and contact tracing capacity. Which has been nowhere near good enough so far.

That’s the ideal scenario anyway. My concern is people acting like idiots and immediately throwing a party as soon as some of the lockdown measures are rolled back. That and asymptomatic spread.

Yeah it's basically going to be a trial and error situation - they will release some lockdown measures with the warning of "Don't fecking make us do this again if we don't have to". If the crazy parties start straight away, boom, 3 more weeks of stricter lockdown. If people more or less behave, great. I think there's a majority in the country that would happily abide by some rules as long as some of their liberties are returned and they can start earning money again. Basically like rubbing a dog's nose in a puddle of its own urine.

As you said yourself, the government's aims for this lockdown haven't been achieved and that's probably because they're full of shit and don't have the capabilities at the moment to achieve those aims.

 

[Penna]

The lockdown is being more strictly enforced here now. I went to the bank and the pharmacy (took the dogs as they get no walks these days), and while I was waiting outside the pharmacy the local police were stopping every single car going in and out of the village. They also spoke to me and to two other pedestrians. I had to show them my ID to satisfy them that I was entitled to be there.

 

[do.ob]

Yeah it's basically going to be a trial and error situation - they will release some lockdown measures with the warning of "Don't fecking make us do this again if we don't have to". If the crazy parties start straight away, boom, 3 more weeks of stricter lockdown. If people more or less behave, great. I think there's a majority in the country that would happily abide by some rules as long as some of their liberties are returned and they can start earning money again. Basically like rubbing a dog's nose in a puddle of its own urine.

As you said yourself, the government's aims for this lockdown haven't been achieved and that's probably because they're full of shit and don't have the capabilities at the moment to achieve those aims.

It's also worth noting the time frame she gives. She said they assume that at 1.1 it would take until October to reach full ICU capacity. That's six months. Unless you get a massive spike in infection rate instantly there seems to be quite a bit of room to maneuver and if it doesn't work out you always know (or sadly: assume) that you're capable to reset it back to 1 with stricter measures.

 

[Arruda]

Luis Sepúlveda, the famous Chilean writer, has died of Covid-19. He was one of the first known cases in Portugal, as he was here a few days in a long event before being diagnosed. One of his close contacts (an Azorean Professor in the US) was among the first to expose that the US weren't testing suspect cases, as he was denied test despite explaining he spent 3 days with a known case.

That was more than 6 weeks ago, and he was the first diagnosed case in Asturias.

This thing takes it's time to kill.

RIP

 

[11101]

It depends what you mean by reliable. When you’re looking for something with a low prevalence you need a level of sensitivity/specificity that is incredibly hard to achieve. I think we’re going to have to compromise and roll out the best available with an acknowledgment that it will be fundamentally flawed but we’ll have to make do.

So my understanding of their lack of sensitivity is that these tests may return a false negative, but there's no chance they will return a false positive? So they would be fail safe in a way - nobody who hasn't had it is going to be sent out thinking they're immune.

The lockdown is being more strictly enforced here now. I went to the bank and the pharmacy (took the dogs as they get no walks these days), and while I was waiting outside the pharmacy the local police were stopping every single car going in and out of the village. They also spoke to me and to two other pedestrians. I had to show them my ID to satisfy them that I was entitled to be there.

Its up and down here. We've had a lot more helicopters overhead the last few days and police checkpoints, but there also seems to be more people about.

 

[RobinLFC]

Also Belgium seems dramatically different from both Holland and France which seems hard to explain at least when thinking in geographic terms

Deaths per million is pretty pointless since every country has another way of reporting deaths. Due to the the dramatic scenes at our elderly homes, every death there is reported as a Covid-19 death. That's why our numbers are so inflated, I think there are other countries who only report 100% confirmed cases or sometimes even just deaths occurring in hospitals.

 

[Dancfc]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/number-coronavirus-pandemic

Quite grim reading here but sadly I suspect very accurate. This is going to go on for a very long time.

There's another expert who's saying it's already burning out.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...-uk-restrictions-measures-lifted-covid-19-nhs

The reality, I suspect, is something in-between.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

There's another expert who's saying it's already burning out.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...-uk-restrictions-measures-lifted-covid-19-nhs

The reality, I suspect, is something in-between.

Definitely. If it was all doom and gloom there wouldn't be a single country in Europe releasing any lockdown measures and the opposite is true. Likewise, we're not going to be in beer gardens and going to gigs by June. The truth is somewhere in between and I view that as a positive.

 

[Withnail]

Exactly that. They're not really bothered about it. If you get it you get it seems to be the overriding opinion. I think it's coming from the small amount of actual deaths, especially in younger age ranges.. Friends of mine are seeing their livelihoods disappear, decades of savings shrivel... I think people will generally behave for another few weeks but after that it'll be more dangerous to keep people inside than letting them out.

They've got a point certainly, even if many will feel its premature. Where do we draw the line? A few weeks inside? OK. A few months? Hmmm. A year? Not happening, regardless of how many people die.

Well in my view what will happen is that if there is civil disobedience and people go about their business as usual, you'll see a massive spike of infections and deaths. People will then have to go back to enforced isolation and govts may need to be heavy handed in that regard.

We need to take the pain now to reduce the transmission rate to below 1 and then take it from there. I don't know where you're from but in here in Ireland and also in Germany, as I saw today, the transmission rate is hovering around 1.
The Govt here are being cautious and won't give out the exact figure. I suspect that's because it's slightly below 1 but they don't want to give people the impression all is well and ruin all the hard work and sacrifices everyone had made in getting ourselves to this point.

The quicker any individual country has it contained the quicker they can go start moving back towards some semblance of normal life.

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

My brother in law is a cop, and he says there's been no real concrete 'across the board' advice dished out to the police regarding how they manage this - in his area, at least.

Combine this confusion with the obvious fact that the police does attract some 'thirsty for power' types (like all authoritative jobs) and it's no surprise that you've got some miniature Hitlers running around telling people to get out of their own front gardens and similar.

The government needs to issue a full, informative statement to ALL police officers telling them what is and isnt kosher during lockdown - both in terms of the public and their own behaviour.

 

[Fosu-Mens]

Many countries have passed "increased or changed surveillance" related laws to ensure improved virus tracking capability. Doubt these laws will be reversed after the virus crisis is over.

Increased surveillance and more active policing. What's not to like...

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Many countries have passed "increased or changed surveillance" related laws to ensure improved virus tracking capability. Doubt these laws will be reversed after the virus crisis is over.

Increased surveillance and more active policing. What's not to like...

Strike while the iron is hot. I always suspected the government would take advantage of a crisis like this to slide in the odd change that, at present, will be for public good but beyond that will be for insidious reasons. Hopefully that's not the case but right now, we do need a harder approach like this (within fecking reason) as it's for the greater good.

 

[Prometheus]

There's another expert who's saying it's already burning out.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...-uk-restrictions-measures-lifted-covid-19-nhs

The reality, I suspect, is something in-between.

Oh, that's the guy who gave "three-month" prognosis to the Lockerbie bomber which had him released from jail on compassionate grounds.

I wouldn't trust his judgement. Plus this is not even his field. I guess the Express couldn't find anyone else.

 

[RobinLFC]

Definitely. If it was all doom and gloom there wouldn't be a single country in Europe releasing any lockdown measures and the opposite is true. Likewise, we're not going to be in beer gardens and going to gigs by June. The truth is somewhere in between and I view that as a positive.

The doom mongering in here is astonishing to me. How the feck can anyone know what the situation will be like in 4 months, that's a very big timeframe.

I agree with your view. Do think however that pubs will open again by the start of the summer, otherwise a lot of them will simply go out of business.

 

[balaks]

The doom mongering in here is astonishing to me. How the feck can anyone know what the situation will be like in 4 months, that's a very big timeframe.

I agree with your view. Do think however that pubs will open again by the start of the summer, otherwise a lot of them will simply go out of business.

I am very much looking forward to the pubs re-opening and meeting my pals for far too many to be healthy cold pints in a sunny beer garden. I'll likely burst into tears when it actually happens I'll be so happy. Having said that, I'll not be surprised if I need to postpone that thought until next summer. Really hope I'm wrong though.

 

[Darkhorsez]

Not trying to side with police actions but it seemed to me that the journalist wasn’t really helping himself by hanging around too! I have no idea why that lady was being charged but what was surprising is the lack of protective gear for the police officer taking her to the van.

 

[Dancfc]

Oh, that's the guy who gave "three-month" prognosis to the Lockerbie bomber which had him released from jail on compassionate grounds.

I wouldn't trust his judgement. Plus this is not even his field. I guess the Express couldn't find anyone else.

Point is so many so called experts are giving wildly different timeframes, I only linked that one cause that was the most recent I saw.

The only guarentee is we need to find a happy medium to somewhat cope with the virus, we don't know how long it will be prelevant to whatever degree, obviously in an ideal world the prophet is right but I don't think anyone banking on it.