SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

With the majority of cases of those requiring hospital treatment being largely confined to the most vaccine resistant sections of society for virus that would ordinarily be affecting older people much more than it now is, the scramble to find Tweets that cast doubt on the effectiveness of the vaccines is odd
 
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stw2022 said:
With the majority of cases of those requiring hospital treatment being largely confined to the most vaccine resistant sections of society for virus that would ordinarily be affecting older people much more than it now is, the scramble to find Tweets that cast doubt on the effectiveness of the vaccines is odd
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What are you talking about? What scramble? There’s been some studies published this week showing reduced effectiveness after single dose (or prior infection) but what’s that got to do with Twitter? At this stage it’s obvious that vaccines are less effective against Delta than they are against prior variants. Far too much data now available to assume otherwise. We’ve even had fully vaccinated people posting in this thread talking about catching covid!
 
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A graph for the geeks (it uses log scale to emphasise the doublings of risk as you go through the age group). As almost all these deaths are pre-vaccine, it's a startling story of how strong the correlation for age related risk is.

Something to note, men are effectively 5 years older than women when it comes to the death rates. Even so, a smaller percentage of men are getting vaccinated - which is a particularly risky act for the 40+ (fortunately the 70+ seem to have decided to get vaccinated)



 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Whitty and Valance, the Kings of all Experts, had the chance to express disagreement with the plan on National TV at the press conference and didn’t, that’s good enough for me.
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They've disagreed with plenty of decisions the government have taken (were both pushing for two week circuit break last September) and probably raised those concerns behind closed doors. Whitty just saying no comment when asked about Cummings this time last year or whenever it was shows he's not interested in creating conflict in public way.

In fairness he's also consistantly said at the press conferences last few months eventually we'll have to learn to live with the virus.

Good some restrictions are being lifted but feels like too much is being lifted all at once rather than gradual steps, amazed we're going to get full football stadiums again next month for instance.
 
Thought this was excellently well argued against main government talking points.
 
Massive Spanner said:
I hope that anchor was just playing devil's advocate there and isn't actually that thick.
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Well the idea of playing devil's advocate is to make it difficult for the person to make their argument, so unless she was doing some kind of reverse psychology where she was intentionally making stupid arguments that boost the strength of the other person's argument...I think she was just being a bit brainless. Reading from a script without actually listening to what the other person's saying or even thinking much about what the script even says.

Agree Deepti made a very good case. I don't think it helps to make alarmist points about children - they pull at the heart strings, but they don't dive with the evidence - but she did a good job of ridiculing the false dichotomy. Though I suspect the people who buy into it don't really listen to opposing arguments anyway...
 
Wolverine said:
Thought this was excellently well argued against main government talking points.
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She’s quite annoyingly negative on Twitter and seems overly obsessed with long covid but hard to argue with anything she says here. The “what about cancer patients” argument is infuriating.

Is it correct that only 50% of the UK are fully vaccinated? That seems very low? We passed that milestone last week in Ireland and we’ve consistently been miles behind the UK in our roll-out.
 
Brwned said:
Well the idea of playing devil's advocate is to make it difficult for the person to make their argument, so unless she was doing some kind of reverse psychology where she was intentionally making stupid arguments that boost the strength of the other person's argument...I think she was just being a bit brainless. Reading from a script without actually listening to what the other person's saying or even thinking much about what the script even says.

Agree Deepti made a very good case. I don't think it helps to make alarmist points about children - they pull at the heart strings, but they don't dive with the evidence - but she did a good job of ridiculing the false dichotomy. Though I suspect the people who buy into it don't really listen to opposing arguments anyway...
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Long Covid and children are her two pet topics to obsess about on Twitter. As usual I suspect heavy social media use is taking reasonable concerns and making them more extreme.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
She’s quite annoyingly negative on Twitter and seems overly obsessed with long covid but hard to argue with anything she says here. The “what about cancer patients” argument is infuriating.

Is it correct that only 50% of the UK are fully vaccinated? That seems very low? We passed that milestone last week in Ireland and we’ve consistently been miles behind the UK in our roll-out.
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50% total population for UK. 50% of adults for Ireland.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
She’s quite annoyingly negative on Twitter and seems overly obsessed with long covid but hard to argue with anything she says here. The “what about cancer patients” argument is infuriating.

Is it correct that only 50% of the UK are fully vaccinated? That seems very low? We passed that milestone last week in Ireland and we’ve consistently been miles behind the UK in our roll-out.
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50% if including children (34.2 million out of a rough population of 68 million). 64.9% of adults have had both doses now, with almost 87% having received their 1st.
 
Wolverine said:
They've treated us like shit. My wife is in third trimester around 30 weeks and still patient-facing and doing surgery as a derm registrar despite RCOG and occu health advising against (she chose to get double vaccinated despite confirmation of pregnancy after discussion, but they're treating her to say she's low risk). She's on daily promethazine for hyperemesis as well and has had two hospital admissions as needed IM. Also physio due to sacroilitis from doing long complex physically taxing surgeries

We would get BMA/ACAS involved but she didn't want to kick up a fuss in case it has implications for her future and being seen as "difficult" by the managers
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Sorry to hear that buddy, they really are twats and often have such little care for their staff.

Hope you guys get through it all OK and its over soon. They still haven't quite clocked one of the major reasons for physician burnout and dropout rates it seems.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
She’s quite annoyingly negative on Twitter and seems overly obsessed with long covid but hard to argue with anything she says here. The “what about cancer patients” argument is infuriating.

Is it correct that only 50% of the UK are fully vaccinated? That seems very low? We passed that milestone last week in Ireland and we’ve consistently been miles behind the UK in our roll-out.
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Agreed. Prof Pagel is a lot more measured and less hyperbolic.

I'm undecided on vaccinating kids, I think I see it more from the POV of the NEJM study saying that its safe, also licensed for teenagers. More from reducing community infections, breaking off chains etc.

Long covid is a huge, poorly understood spectrum of disease. I'm following up a number of patients with suspected long covid who've we've referred for CT scans, spirometry, chest physios and to long covid clinics for a case study type of thing because we had loads in inner city Leicester with additional surveys to identify how debilitating it is generally.

Generally its sort of like fibromyalgia but without the pain relief requirements, more intermittent breathlessness, muscle fatigue predominant in my experience. Actually was worse in first wave when we had really worrying-sounding chest pains in a significant number (with investigations all normal). Some good response to bronchodilator trials and dealing intercurrent deficiencies in vitamin D. But huge variation in clinical presentation and mostly its persistent post-viral like symptoms now. Many have been phased back into work gradually to even physically exerting role.

I don't really buy the stats on its prevalent and without wanting to downplay its debility or extent, I don't think thats the argument for postponing restriction-lifting vaccinating more, and vaccination the teens.

There's enough of a case from preventing community transmission towards elderly/immunocompromised and preventing variants.

But I agreed with what most of what she said in there. The bizarre lifting of mask mandate is worrying to me. And also points to governments actually wanting this thing to spread to some extent.
 
Wolverine said:
Agreed. Prof Pagel is a lot more measured and less hyperbolic.

I'm undecided on vaccinating kids, I think I see it more from the POV of the NEJM study saying that its safe, also licensed for teenagers. More from reducing community infections, breaking off chains etc.

Long covid is a huge, poorly understood spectrum of disease. I'm following up a number of patients with suspected long covid who've we've referred for CT scans, spirometry, chest physios and to long covid clinics for a case study type of thing because we had loads in inner city Leicester with additional surveys to identify how debilitating it is generally.

Generally its sort of like fibromyalgia but without the pain relief requirements, more intermittent breathlessness, muscle fatigue predominant in my experience. Actually was worse in first wave when we had really worrying-sounding chest pains in a significant number (with investigations all normal). Some good response to bronchodilator trials and dealing intercurrent deficiencies in vitamin D. But huge variation in clinical presentation and mostly its persistent post-viral like symptoms now. Many have been phased back into work gradually to even physically exerting role.

I don't really buy the stats on its prevalent and without wanting to downplay its debility or extent, I don't think thats the argument for postponing restriction-lifting vaccinating more, and vaccination the teens.

There's enough of a case from preventing community transmission towards elderly/immunocompromised and preventing variants.

But I agreed with what most of what she said in there. The bizarre lifting of mask mandate is worrying to me. And also points to governments actually wanting this thing to spread to some extent.
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Completely agree with your take on long covid. The bottom line is that post viral morbidity has been around forever and the harder you look for it the more you’ll find. We’ve never used it as a reason to take extreme measure to prevent the spread of, say, influenza so it shouldn’t be a big factor in any decisions we take about covid now. All this talk about “an epidemic of long term disability” is silly.

It’s not as though we need any more reasons to try and control the spread of this damn thing anyway!
 
Massive Spanner said:
I hope that anchor was just playing devil's advocate there and isn't actually that thick.
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Embarrassing line of questioning, probably devised by someone with no basic grasp of epidemiology.

Glad the lady very clearly called out the false dichotomy peddled by the govt.
 
It took just 2 weeks of relaxation to start closing again in NL. R rate now 1.37, pubs to shut at 12 and clubs to close completely. Infections increased 10 fold in a week and the under 30s the only group on the rise in infections even though 15 year olds can get jab now.
 
Is there any link to rise in cases to the nations that have made it to the semis in the football, Spain,Italy,Denmark and England?
 
35k new cases in the UK today. Seems mad to me that the UK is going to do away with all restrictions in 10 days.

Canada is doing pretty well now. On average about 500 cases a day and about 46% of the population fully vaccinated. BC is only getting about 100 cases a day.
 
My local area is up to 100 confirmed cases a day at the moment, when in all previous waves we’ve never hit beyond 50-60. Perhaps some of that is due to increased testing but it does seem to me that opening up next week and dropping the mandatory mask wearing is quite nuts.

On the plus side, second Pfizer jab this morning, 8 weeks to the day after my first. Was able to walk in easily and I was treated like a rock star because they were were super quiet.
 


Excellent Twitter thread on latest PHE data re variants. I say “variants” plural but delta the only show in town.

tl;dr. Good news re looks like it isn’t causing more severe disease once hospitalised. Less good news re increasing cases in fully vaccinated and/or previously infected HCWs. Likely immune escape and/or waning immunity over time (HCWs vaccinated before everyone else).
 
djembatheking said:
Is there any link to rise in cases to the nations that have made it to the semis in the football, Spain,Italy,Denmark and England?
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Kind of, but mostly it's related to when delta took over as the main variant in a country. People seemed to have got good at handling alpha, but delta has really stung.

E5pFe4JX0AcuTFB
 
jojojo said:
Kind of, but mostly it's related to when delta took over as the main variant in a country. People seemed to have got good at handling alpha, but delta has really stung.

E5pFe4JX0AcuTFB
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No sign of Italy, they must be doing something right. Whats happened to Cyprus?
 
djembatheking said:
No sign of Italy, they must be doing something right. Whats happened to Cyprus?
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Italy is only just starting to see delta case rise, the upturn wouldn't really show you anything much on that graph scale yet. The frightening thing is when you look at how low the UK was and how little time it took to get where it is now. Those minor looking case rises can grow fast in the right local conditions.
 
Stanley Road said:
It took just 2 weeks of relaxation to start closing again in NL. R rate now 1.37, pubs to shut at 12 and clubs to close completely. Infections increased 10 fold in a week and the under 30s the only group on the rise in infections even though 15 year olds can get jab now.
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The UK (sorry, Ingerland) has an irreversible opening though
 
jojojo said:
Italy is only just starting to see delta case rise, the upturn wouldn't really show you anything much on that graph scale yet. The frightening thing is when you look at how low the UK was and how little time it took to get where it is now. Those minor looking case rises can grow fast in the right local conditions.
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Thats the worry with all these huge gatherings but I suppose it would happen in a fortnight anyway .
 
djembatheking said:
No sign of Italy, they must be doing something right. Whats happened to Cyprus?
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I have very close friends in Cyprus and have spoken to them regularly but a lot are refusing to get the vaccination.

This isn't based on whatever their stats say I've not looked but they are a deeply religious people and very weary of some science.
 
jojojo said:
Kind of, but mostly it's related to when delta took over as the main variant in a country. People seemed to have got good at handling alpha, but delta has really stung.

E5pFe4JX0AcuTFB
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The chart is interesting but does not tell the full story. We can rank coutries only if these countries are undertaking the same number of tests per million people!

For example, the UK is doing 3 times more tests than Spain so a coutry like Spain is in reality much more worst situation IMO

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...d?time=latest&country=ITA~USA~DNK~GBR~DEU~ESP

In the link above, you can add or remove countries
 
Wolverine said:
The bizarre lifting of mask mandate is worrying to me. And also points to governments actually wanting this thing to spread to some extent.
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Very bizarre indeed to say the least. Still something unbelievable to me.

Political communication completely unconsistent as usual.
 
The Cat said:
I have very close friends in Cyprus and have spoken to them regularly but a lot are refusing to get the vaccination.

This isn't based on whatever their stats say I've not looked but they are a deeply religious people and very weary of some science.
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Yes this is correct. Everyone over the age of 16 has been offered the vaccine since mid June. Plus they have a choice between Pfizer, Moderna, AZ or JJ when making an appointment. The problem is that the under 30 age bracket only has a 30% uptake so far (village mentality, relying on FB for info etc), so the Delta variant is blitzing them at the moment.
 
Ecstatic said:
More cases per million people because more tests per million people!

Cyprus 9,657.60 tests per thousand against...
UK 3,198.82
Italy 1,206.72

Source >>>>> Total Tests per thousand Table

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...e&time=latest&country=ITA~USA~DNK~GBR~DEU~ESP
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Exactly, anyone that has refused a vaccine needs to do a compulsory rapid or PCR test once a week in order to work or visit a restaurant or bar.. hence the high number of tests and high number of cases as a result. The positivity rate is only 2% at the moment, so 50k tests daily means 1k positives at the moment.
 
The situation in Asia is really depressing. Countries are reporting record daily cases everywhere with no light at the end of the tunnel in sight.
 
It’s clear note the goal posts have shifted to demanding a zero covid strategy.

Post vaccine the key indicator that matters is deaths, and to a lesser extent because of pressure on the NHS this could lead to.lb even if those in hospital are less sick that before due to their age range which of what all the anecdotal evidence points towards

It’s telling that deaths in particular are seldom now mentioned and the entire focus is on case numbers.
 
stw2022 said:
It’s clear note the goal posts have shifted to demanding a zero covid strategy.

Post vaccine the key indicator that matters is deaths, and to a lesser extent because of pressure on the NHS this could lead to.lb even if those in hospital are less sick that before due to their age range which of what all the anecdotal evidence points towards

It’s telling that deaths in particular are seldom now mentioned and the entire focus is on case numbers.
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That’s how it has always been when we are in the early stages of a sharp increase in transmission. Deaths lag cases so don’t pay attention to the low death numbers, watch the case trajectory until it peaks, and then assess the damage that follows. That’s been the general measurement protocol and it’s the best way to mitigate against our general tendency to intuitively misunderstand exponential growth.

Deaths typically become the focus when cases are no longer rising substantially, it might be what you remember from the reporting, but that just means you’re remembering a particular phase (the most deadly phase) of reporting. Hospitalisations are more commonly tracked when we’re in this phase of transmission growth.
 
The problem with only looking at numbers of deaths is that it takes no account of Long Covid. If infected people were making a complete recovery that would be a different matter, but it's not the case.

If you're young and you suffer long-term or even permanent lung damage, that's a very significant thing.
 
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