Blind seems like he might be more likely to leave but I think that depends on what happens with our left back options. Jose doesn't seem to fancy giving him games as a DM, he's fallen behind Darmian at left back, a lot could depend on Shaw's status going forward, and any possible left back signings. Signing Lindelof means his chances are probably diminishing. His versatility might be the only thing that saves him in the end.
But of the two of Jones and Smalling, I think that Smalling's games for England may save him. Jones is pretty far away from the international setup with the emergence of Keane and his injury troubles are surely a constant source of worry too. Smalling will be useful when you require a player who can make a lot of aerial challenges, Jones less so.