The Breakup of the EU

Does anyone foresee this happening now that Brexit is behind us?

It will be interesting to see whether the resolve of Germany and France are tested financially when they have to continue funding the project.

Anyone got any thoughts? Thought it was relevant given the breakup of the UK thread.
I hope so. Cant stand the EE.
 
When one of the biggest economies in Europe leaves the project isn't that evidence of failure? Not sure what you could class as bigger evidence? Minute detail is what you're looking for is it?
The same economy which has struggled the most due to all the trade issues and have had multiple companies set up parallel shops across the channel? And let’s not even talk about the small businesses which operated across borders right now...
 
No. What's the answer?

Not really. In the short term, yes, but long term the effects of leaving the EU will be felt much harder.

The second part just isn't true at all. The housing bubble and fallout here was caused by the idiocy of our own government and banks.

I'm not sure how you can possibly think unifed Ireland = Ireland leaving the EU and joining some US global block? if anything a unified Ireland would make our EU membership much simpler and any notion of a unified Ireland would require huge funding from the EU in order to work, too (and likewise the UK). Also one of the main reasons a united Ireland would even happen is Brexit and NI wanting to be back in the EU!

The bubble was in large part caused by interest rates being too low for Ireland due to weakness in Germany in early 00s.

I appreciate now this seems difficult to see. For me once the EU puts a stop to ROI being a tax haven and I'm convinced it isn't sustainable. Why would Ireland stay in the block? What benefit is there?

Got far more in common in terms of language, culture and will have much better economic prospects joining the US in my view. In a trade and employment area if not as an actual state.

I can see that working well economically and politically for all Ireland. Pretty certain the US would also benefit from it. Once the economic problems from covid crystallise I can see it eventually happening. Was thought about after the last crisis:

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/t...k-with-eu-and-join-the-us-105660413-237723801
 
The same economy which has struggled the most due to all the trade issues and have had multiple companies set up parallel shops across the channel? And let’s not even talk about the small businesses which operated across borders right now...
That's all irrelevant. In the context of the EU having one of the major partners of the EU leave, is failure. Wrap whatever bullshit you want around, and try to find excuses for why it isn't so bad, but if you were at work on Monday negotiating a partnership with another company and they got up and walked out that would be looked at as failure. That's a fact no one on here can argue against. State of economies, outcomes of leaving or staying, good or bad, nothing gets away from a major partner leaving being a failure.
 
When one of the biggest economies in Europe leaves the project isn't that evidence of failure? Not sure what you could class as bigger evidence? Minute detail is what you're looking for is it?
The UK left on a basis of lies, and has shot itself in foot. It's effectively got EU market access, with no say on how the EU is actually ran.
The lies:
  1. 350m more for NHS
  2. Better trade deals/negotiating capacity than the EU bloc?
  3. The UK was performing strongly and didn't need the EU
  4. The Union will be stronger if the UK leaves (NI, Scotland relationships look strained).
The popularity and strength of the EU has increased the past few years:
  • The bureaucratic nightmare of leaving has deterred countries who may have once flirted with leaving.
  • The EU economy is strong, and the single market has shown to be still working effectively. Why would the UK want to then leave the EU but keep the single market
Simply, what makes you think that others will leave just because the EU left?
None of what you've said is remotely based in facts, it's just taking anecdotal experiences from Brexit and applying them to other countries.
 
That's all irrelevant. In the context of the EU having one of the major partners of the EU leave, is failure. Wrap whatever bullshit you want around, and try to find excuses for why it isn't so bad, but if you were at work on Monday negotiating a partnership with another company and they got up and walked out that would be looked at as failure. That's a fact no one on here can argue against. State of economies, outcomes of leaving or staying, good or bad, nothing gets away from a major partner leaving being a failure.
:lol:

a major partner leaving and therefore struggling is a failure for the other side?
 
That's all irrelevant. In the context of the EU having one of the major partners of the EU leave, is failure. Wrap whatever bullshit you want around, and try to find excuses for why it isn't so bad, but if you were at work on Monday negotiating a partnership with another company and they got up and walked out that would be looked at as failure. That's a fact no one on here can argue against. State of economies, outcomes of leaving or staying, good or bad, nothing gets away from a major partner leaving being a failure.

None of what you state is actually facts, it's just hyperbole and drama.
 
Forced bailout? German bond holders protected by the EU from losses? Forced austerity? Ring any bells for you? Do you not know anyone who has emigrated in the last decade or so then no?
Oh here we go. So the EU is at fault for the recession? Not Bertie and his goons? Give me a break.
 
The bubble was in large part caused by interest rates being too low for Ireland due to weakness in Germany in early 00s.

I appreciate now this seems difficult to see. For me once the EU puts a stop to ROI being a tax haven and I'm convinced it isn't sustainable. Why would Ireland stay in the block? What benefit is there?

Got far more in common in terms of language, culture and will have much better economic prospects joining the US in my view. In a trade and employment area if not as an actual state.

I can see that working well economically and politically for all Ireland. Pretty certain the US would also benefit from it. Once the economic problems from covid crystallise I can see it eventually happening. Was thought about after the last crisis:

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/t...k-with-eu-and-join-the-us-105660413-237723801
That is all speculation and conjecture though. The EU can't implement a one size fits all tax policy and we would never go for it anyway. You can't make baseless claims like that.

That article is some of the dumbest shit I've read. What even is Irish Central? I've never heard of it. Nobody in Ireland wants that. Absolutely nobody. Support for the EU is at an all time high and respect for the US is at an all time low for feck sake. Pure mental speak.
 
According to that poll 35% of French people think there wll be a European war, who the hell did they ask?
If I went into our village and asked who thought there'd be a European war, they'd think I'd lost the plot, seriously....

This was published in May 2019. Not a very long time ago but not truly current.
The bulk of the poll involved some 60,000 across 14 EU countries, so about half.
Clearly the biggest surprise was the view of a European War. Something that both the EU and NATO has successfully fought against for many decades.
A poll is what it is. Just a poll. Not reality and hopefully a very long way from it.
 
That is all speculation and conjecture though. The EU can't implement a one size fits all tax policy and we would never go for it anyway. You can't make baseless claims like that.

That article is some of the dumbest shit I've read. What even is Irish Central? I've never heard of it. Nobody in Ireland wants that. Absolutely nobody. Support for the EU is at an all time high and respect for the US is at an all time low for feck sake. Pure mental speak.
You don't remember the EU forcing Ireland to tax apple. How did that end in the courts again? If you think the EU isn't coming from Irelands tax laws then you're completely deluded mate. That's the next step in the political project.
 
Just for a change, maybe Brexiters can give an indication of how they will cope with the added bureaucracy, the increased difficulty with trading with the whole world, if they have yet realised that they have far more regulations to follow now they have left the EU.

What are the benefits and who are they going to sell their exports to with such ease, why do they want to pay more for everything, after five years surely one of them can say something sensible.
Then they think other EU countries will follow their folly. Unbelievable.
 
Again, I don't actually give a feck about the reasons for voting to leave, the lies, the state of economies, none of it. The fact is that when a major partner walks out of a deal its considered as having failed.

I will answer one of your points, because clearly haven't read my posts. Why Britain would want to keep market access is because the economic project, trading and business, has been quite successful. The POLITICAL project is what is failing. Laws, jurisdictions, tax homogenisation, etc...

That's not a fact though, that's an opinion that is in theory supposed to rely on the reasons for voting leave but you don't care about it, so.
 
France brought Germany to table for the recovery fund and actively lobbied/pursued/convinced Netherlands and in extension Nordics too.

France did not oppose Germany on this nor the other way. My point was that if Germany does not want something, then it wont happen. Germany also wanted the recovery fund, so that is why it happened, not because of France.
 
You don't remember the EU forcing Ireland to tax apple. How did that end in the courts again? If you think the EU isn't coming from Irelands tax laws then you're completely deluded mate. That's the next step in the political project.
Eh it ended up with Ireland winning? So we weren't forced.

I think you're the deluded one here. You seem to view the EU as responsible for all the issues we've had in Ireland even though that's not the case. Sadly the same sort of misguided mindset that caused brexit. Luckily we aren't as thick as the Tories here and we will never do what the UK did.
 
This was published in May 2019. Not a very long time ago but not truly current.
The bulk of the poll involved some 60,000 across 14 EU countries, so about half.
Clearly the biggest surprise was the view of a European War. Something that both the EU and NATO has successfully fought against for many decades.
A poll is what it is. Just a poll. Not reality and hopefully a very long way from it.

I doubt you'd find 35 people in France let alone 35% who think a European War is imminent, it's complete nonsense. If you want to you can't find anything on the net to support ones agenda. Let reality reach the people.
 
You - again - fail to read past your confirmation bias:
The German defence ministry set out its worst-case scenario for the year 2040

Despite the alarmist headlines it has generated, the leaked document is, if anything, overoptimistic. In three out of the six scenarios, things go so well that Europe resembles the Biedermeier era – 1815-1848 – of domestic bliss and military boredom.
Gosh, you do get het up, don’t you? initially when I read your comments, my glasses weren’t on properly and I thought you had written constipation bias, which struck me as over familiar but I sorted out the bins and saw you said confirmation. That was a relief because I didn’t remember clicking on a bodily functions thread.

Now, back to business, so let’s revisit what I wrote.

Some will immediately say that countries plan for all sorts of eventuality but if there was a contingency plan for a worst case scenario in 2017,

The plan was written in or before 2017. I didn’t say it related to 2017 because anyone reading the article would already have known it was for 2040.

I don’t want you to apologise for your lack of understanding because everyone is living in a stressful period and it’s easy to lose a bit of focus. You, like me, may also have been in the middle of a spectacles incident.

I am concerned you’re getting worked up fairly often, though and you mustn’t. It’s bad for your blood pressure. This can lead to loss of appetite, sleeplessness, hair loss and even infertility.

Have you tried yoga or meditation? My grandmother recommended putting lavender oil on a pillow at night as it was calming, so she said.

If you find the stressful feelings don’t go away, let’s talk more and try to find a way through it for you.

All the best.
 
I don’t see a breakup resulting from a slow but steady withdrawal of individual member states, but I think the Union is obviously vulnerable to extreme crises, and these are often completely unforeseeable. So perhaps collapse is more likely than decline, although still quite unlikely.
 
Reading this thread, I'm reminded that I once read the OP suggest that Ireland should consider leaving the EU as well, that they had lost more than they had gained through EU membership and that US corporations would continue investing in Ireland even if they left the EU. In fact I think it was in an argument with @Massive Spanner. Deja vu, eh?

That (being polite) fringe POV perhaps casts a light through which his take on the EU generally should be viewed.
 
Reading this thread, I'm reminded that I once read the OP suggest that Ireland should consider leaving the EU as well, that they had lost more than they had gained through EU membership and that US corporations would continue investing in Ireland even if they left the EU. In fact I think it was in an argument with @Massive Spanner. Deja vu, eh?

That (being polite) fringe POV perhaps casts a light through which his take on the EU generally should be viewed.
Was it? I can't remember to be honest but it does sound like (not being polite) an idiotic enough argument to fit his current one.
 
You need to sit down and warm your brain. The EU project to bring countries together fails when one of the biggest economies decides to leave, regardless of the reasons why. Im not saying one side lost and the other didn't. I'm saying the project to bring European nations together is failing, Britain leaving, like it or not, agree with the reasons or not, is the failure.
:lol:

another post with 0 evidence or proof and high on hyperbole
 
Given Massive Spanner is your alter account no one will be surprised you remember that. Apparently people on this forum are not allowed to have opinions that differ from the populist ones. If you do people will attempt to character assassinate you, as you are doing right now.
If this is the case, please report it so we can ignore it.
 
How do you think the EU will fare when they realise their own products are now more expensive than UK made products, considering too that the UK represents a major export market for EU countries. 10% approx for Germany I believe. Thats a lot of bureaucracy and additional costs for them.

Which products specifically? I work in a business which assembles it's product in the UK and sells both here, in the EU, and around the globe. I would hazard a very strong guess that most products 'made' in the UK will have had some form of component of that product being sourced/shipped from the EU.

Price rises are the only thing that will be seen across the board as Brexit has now established more bureaucracy and additional costs, plus also time delays.
 
Given Massive Spanner is your alter account no one will be surprised you remember that. Apparently people on this forum are not allowed to have opinions that differ from the populist ones. If you do people will attempt to character assassinate you, as you are doing right now.
I'm insulted that you could think that. Sully is a much better poster than me!
 
It's funny to see this idea appear - here and in other threads. I have not seen it mentioned at all in media I read. I think it's a very UK viewpoint, the UK always having been a reluctant member with a lot of anti-EU sentiment in the media and among its politicians and general public. That's bolstered now after Brexit, but in my perception, a breakup of the EU has not been in the cards, and even less so now everyone is seeing the mess that's Brexit (and I don't mean the exit negotiations).

If I were a member state or a resident of one I’d be pretty appalled at how the EU have fecked up the vaccine rollout and then gone on to try and blame everybody but themselves.
To be precise, the EU has messed up vaccine procurement, not the roll-out. The roll-out is done by every country individually.

How about the current EU ultimately morphing in to something else.

To me it's clear a lot has gone wrong with the EU in the last 20-25 years. So far there has been little recognition of that let alone any real push for significant reform. When the UK voted to leave, nobody asked why? Was unthinkable 20 years ago.
First, I don't know under which rock you've been living, but the UK's motivations for leaving the EU have been analysed to smithereens. Nobody just went 'OK then, whatever'.

Also, I'm not sure what's been going so wrong in the EU the past few decades. To my mind, the EU as an institution stands stronger than it did and keeps tweaking a successful formula towards improvement. There are also more fundamental discussions happening on that front and there are lots of good proposals for some political restructuring. If anything, I see the EU continuing to strengthen as an institution.

Again, I don't actually give a feck about the reasons for voting to leave, the lies, the state of economies, none of it. The fact is that when a major partner walks out of a deal its considered as having failed.

I will answer one of your points, because clearly haven't read my posts. Why Britain would want to keep market access is because the economic project, trading and business, has been quite successful. The POLITICAL project is what is failing. Laws, jurisdictions, tax homogenisation, etc...
How is any of that failing? Again, this to me seems a very UK-centric viewpoint. Harmonization didn't work in the UK because of anti-EU sentiments - often actually based on lies and misconceptions. That sentiment is nowhere near the same elsewhere in the EU and hence the overall perception is much more positive.

As for a major partner leaving signifying failure: I think the failure it signifies is allowing the UK to be a reluctant member all this time. They shouldn't have been allowed to stay that much outside the EU, and I think the lesson here is that future members should be firmly drawn into the EU framework. Either that or stay out - not this nonsense that the UK kept pulling off. In that sense, I think Brexit will strengthen the EU.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Crackers
Given Massive Spanner is your alter account no one will be surprised you remember that. Apparently people on this forum are not allowed to have opinions that differ from the populist ones. If you do people will attempt to character assassinate you, as you are doing right now.

@Massive Spanner wishes he was my alter account.

You're allowed to have opinions. I was just expanding on your opinions by referencing your other, directly related opinions to give people a better idea of where you're coming from. If you think that amounts to character assassination then you musn't hold your previous opinions in much esteem.
 
You need to sit down and warm your brain. The EU project to bring countries together fails when one of the biggest economies decides to leave, regardless of the reasons why. Im not saying one side lost and the other didn't. I'm saying the project to bring European nations together is failing, Britain leaving, like it or not, agree with the reasons or not, is the failure.
Your post needs to sit down and warm its brain. If you want to be so extremely literal and unnuanced, then we should just count. Since the EU started, 28 countries joined, including big ones, and one left. A great success.

If you think that's nonsense, then you now understand how we're reading your post here. A total lack of nuance or context, yet you keep saying it as if just repeating your point the exact same way makes it more true or will help us understand it better.
 
Last edited:
Given Massive Spanner is your alter account no one will be surprised you remember that. Apparently people on this forum are not allowed to have opinions that differ from the populist ones. If you do people will attempt to character assassinate you, as you are doing right now.

:drool:
 
I've probably got time to go make a cup of tea before we learn who exactly, specifically, those euro elites are, don't I? And how multi-millionaire Farage doesn't fit that definition?

Maybe even a few cups of tea.

Well for start Farage is a non European Union Citizen, or to be more precise is going to be a non European Union Citizen. However, I can assume that up until recently you can claim that he was part of the European elites, as a member of the British Elite. Again, the elites do not have to agree all time. It is not like they are a weird secret society. And no, you cant name all the elites, well because there are the german, the french, the polish, the slovenian and so on and you will need barrels of tea before you can name them all. You can start on reading some theory on the elites, starting from Weber if you want, so you can get some theoritical background.
 
The EU is stronger than ever.

It will be even stronger when Scotland and Wales join in a few years.

It'll be twenty years or so before England admits to the big mistake and trys to re-join.