Have they? You got a link for that, much better if you ask me, I hate the idea of 4th losing out.
The Race for Fourth Place
- Thread starter KiD MoYeS
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Have they? You got a link for that, much better if you ask me, I hate the idea of 4th losing out.
http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/fans/faqs/who-qualifies-to-play-in-europe/
According to that 4th place still loses out.
The only recent change I can recall is,in the eventuality of the winner of the Europa League coming from outside the top 4 and thus qualifying for the Champions League in future seasons. In which case, as is the same with a team outside the top 4 winning the Champions league, the team who finishes 4th misses out.
I went looking for it, was nearly sure they changed it back again after spurs missed out. Apologies,if mistaken
I'm not sure about that:
"English winners of the UEFA Europa League will enter at the Group Stage, gaining an extra domestic place only if they fail to qualify through other means for the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League."
Also that change where the EL winners qualify for the CL isnt untill the 2015 season I think, and yes the winners of the EL do count as an extra spot and it wont effect the top four like the winners of the CL do.
we have become Liverpool 
feck I dunno if I want to laugh or cry
feck I dunno if I want to laugh or crywe have become Liverpool
At least they didn't knock us off our perch. Moyes dove head first.
It would be hilarious, if Liverpool finish fourth and United, while missing out on the top four place, win the CL and knock the scousers out of the next season's competition.
I'd just love to have a look at RAWK on that particular day.
I'd just love to have a look at RAWK on that particular day.
This guy has it spot on about us.
For what it's worth I have Everton down as contenders for top four in the original post.
This guy has it spot on about us.
You've a better chance than United in getting it too, in my opinion. And the media still seem very confident we'll get it, feck knows why.Arsenal finished 4th last year with 73 points
So if that were to be emulated we need at least 39 points from:
Swansea (H)
Chelsea (A)
Cardiff (H)
Stoke (A)
Fulham (H)
Arsenal (A)
City (H)
Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
WBA (A)
Villa (H)
West Ham (A)
Hull (H)
Newcastle (A)
Norwich (H)
Everton (A)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (A)
So where are we going to get them?
So if that were to be emulated we need at least 39 points from:
Swansea (H)
Chelsea (A)
Cardiff (H)
Stoke (A)
Fulham (H)
Arsenal (A)
City (H)
Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
WBA (A)
Villa (H)
West Ham (A)
Hull (H)
Newcastle (A)
Norwich (H)
Everton (A)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (A)
So where are we going to get them?
The Race for Fourth Place
And no, we won't get it. We'll drop more points than Liverpool from here 'til the end of the season.
And no, we won't get it. We'll drop more points than Liverpool from here 'til the end of the season.
No.
I don't see Liverpool dropping too many points and you'd expect Arsenal, City and Chelsea to be comfortably placed in the top 3.
This season is a write off, we need to start planning for the summer.
I don't see Liverpool dropping too many points and you'd expect Arsenal, City and Chelsea to be comfortably placed in the top 3.
This season is a write off, we need to start planning for the summer.
My 5 eggs worth! 32 points
Honest John, we won't.
nope
I'd have the 12 bolded ones as victories and I could see us getting a few draws elsewhere. The problem is that the way the top four is bunched 73 points might not be enough, in which case it's a tough ask.
Yes of course we can.Predicted it at the start,nothing so far changes my mind.
An issue being I can honestly see us just as easily losing the bolded fixtures as much as winning them.
Seriously?
Don't think the scousers are all that. Wouldn't be surprised if it was very closely fought between Liverpool, Spurs and United. Everton to fall away.
You think we'll go the rest of the season with only 2 draws at home and the rest wins? Really they should be wins but I'm not sure if I can see us suddenly changing our fortunes at home this season, and I don't see a sort of catalyst game that could spur us on. Considering we have quite a few tough away games left... I just don't know. I'd like to think we can only get better after our first half of the season but the fixture list doesn't strike me with confidence and I'm not sure if we'll get as many points as we got first half (34). 68 points would potentially be enough, and we'd probably only need to turn one of the losses into a win, lets say Liverpool at home, but I wouldn't bet on it.
This is probably one of the most unpredictable seasons, because none of City, Arsenal or Chelsea have looked all that impressive consistently, or looked like potential title winners, and then there's Liverpool, Everton, Spurs and us fighting for the fourth spot.
Certainly the team is capable of putting together a run to achieve the CL, however i am nervous that the 13/14 version seen thus far and Moyes' current plan will see us finishing 5th.
As of right now United are the retreating British Eighth Army in North Africa, so we're just waiting for our El Alamein moment.
As of right now United are the retreating British Eighth Army in North Africa, so we're just waiting for our El Alamein moment.
I dont think last season's points tally for the top 4 is the important factor, as Kid Cunto said it comes down to who drops more points between us and Liverpool (and Spurs and Everton) and on that basis I think it is highly unlikely. Especially since Everton have liberated themselves of the shite manager that held them back for so long and have now ascended to their rightful place in the top 4, where they should have been all along. Of course.
...
Can we? Yes
Will we? I have my doubts
Will we? I have my doubts
To look at it the other way, even given our awful form, I think we'll do better than winning 8 of our final 18 matches. But...
I agree with this. I think we'll get around that 73 mark, but I'm not at all sure it'll be enough. Not sure I can see us making up enough points on Liverpool, unless an English player does their patriotic duty to Suarez soon.
Of course we can, there aren't four squads better than us in the league. We're only outside fourth now because we've been underperforming so badly, we're capable of a lot more than this even with our flawed squad.
A lot will depend on Carrick and RvP getting and staying fit for the second part of the season. Those two players practically carried us on their own last season, getting them back will improve us massively. Who knows where we'd be now if we'd had RvP to paper over the cracks as he did last season?
Everton and Liverpool both have relatively weak squads. I'd expect their performances to dip in the second half of the season anyway. Then you always have the possibility of injuries derailing their seasons too. What happens if Suarez or Lukaku get injured?
A lot will depend on Carrick and RvP getting and staying fit for the second part of the season. Those two players practically carried us on their own last season, getting them back will improve us massively. Who knows where we'd be now if we'd had RvP to paper over the cracks as he did last season?
Everton and Liverpool both have relatively weak squads. I'd expect their performances to dip in the second half of the season anyway. Then you always have the possibility of injuries derailing their seasons too. What happens if Suarez or Lukaku get injured?
No, I don't think we can, our fixture list is much tougher than Liverpool's, we're five points behind them with a shit GD and they have the best player in the league. We're also not very good.
I thought we were sitting prettily enough down there before the Spurs match. We were two points behind Liverpool then. It's not impossible by any means. We need to sort things out, naturally. But we will look a look stronger - regardless of people's faith in Moyes' managerial abilities - with these boys back: Rooney, RVP, Carrick, Jones, Rafael. That's five starters at the moment, nothing less.
Go on a run and wait for the others to slip up. Stranger things have happened in football - to make an understatement.
Go on a run and wait for the others to slip up. Stranger things have happened in football - to make an understatement.
It's not about the squads, it's about who you have on the field. Accounting for form and injuries, our current best 11 is weaker than the best 11 of Arsenal, Chelsea, City, Liverpool. Maybe Everton. We have a deep team, but when our best selection is chaff compared to the rest, what is the point of having a versatile "squad"? Our team in 2006-07 wasn't a great squad, but the first 11 was class, and it won the league, made the FA cup final, and got to the semi finals of the Champions League.
I think Arsenal, City and Chelsea are safe. That leaves Manchester United to contend with 3 other clubs for the remaining place - Liverpool, Everton and Spurs (5,4 and 3 points ahead of United respectively).
Liverpool are playing better than us, have easier fixtures and are 5 points ahead, so it would take a super optimist to say we have as good a chance. Let's be super-optimistic and say we have. That leaves Spurs and Everton - both ahead of us at this point. Let's be niggardly and give Spurs a 12% chance of qualification and Everton 8%. That leaves 80% to be evenly divided between Liverpool and United - 40% each. So:
United - 40%
Liverpool - 40%
Spurs - 12%
Everton - 8%
Total - 100%
Personally I don't think Everton's chances are 5 times worse than ours, and Spurs have just beaten us at home. Also, I think Liverpool, at this point, are entitled to fancy their chances more than United. So 33%, or 1 chance in 3, might be more realistic.
Liverpool are playing better than us, have easier fixtures and are 5 points ahead, so it would take a super optimist to say we have as good a chance. Let's be super-optimistic and say we have. That leaves Spurs and Everton - both ahead of us at this point. Let's be niggardly and give Spurs a 12% chance of qualification and Everton 8%. That leaves 80% to be evenly divided between Liverpool and United - 40% each. So:
United - 40%
Liverpool - 40%
Spurs - 12%
Everton - 8%
Total - 100%
Personally I don't think Everton's chances are 5 times worse than ours, and Spurs have just beaten us at home. Also, I think Liverpool, at this point, are entitled to fancy their chances more than United. So 33%, or 1 chance in 3, might be more realistic.
We can but I am beginning to doubt that we will. Other teams look much better than us.
I took a look back at how many points were needed to get 4th in the previous 10 seasons, and there's good news and bad news.
The good news is, it's always been lower than 70 before last season. The bad news is that it appears to be following a trend of getting higher over the last few years. Our current form of 1.7 points per game would have got 4th place in half these seasons, but only one of the last four.
2013 - 73
2012 - 66
2011 - 63
2010 - 68
2009 - 64
2008 - 66
2007 - 61
2006 - 66
2005 - 59
2004 - 57
I'd hope that 67 or 68 could well be enough based on the above. That would mean something like W10-D4-L4, W9-D7-L2 or W11-D2-L5, all of which look fairly possible.
The good news is, it's always been lower than 70 before last season. The bad news is that it appears to be following a trend of getting higher over the last few years. Our current form of 1.7 points per game would have got 4th place in half these seasons, but only one of the last four.
2013 - 73
2012 - 66
2011 - 63
2010 - 68
2009 - 64
2008 - 66
2007 - 61
2006 - 66
2005 - 59
2004 - 57
I'd hope that 67 or 68 could well be enough based on the above. That would mean something like W10-D4-L4, W9-D7-L2 or W11-D2-L5, all of which look fairly possible.
Yet we were able to win the league with this squad just last year. It isn't just about the first team, it's about depth too. As Chesterlestreet pointed out, we've had five starters struggling with injury, including our three best players from last season. If Everton or Liverpool are unlucky enough to suffer in the same way over the coming months they'll be totally unable to cope.
All it will take for us to get fourth is luck with injuries, either good luck for us or bad luck for them. Our first team is better than either of theirs when everyone is fully fit and our squad certainly has far more depth.
I'll have to check to see how the respective run-ins compare but that last half dozen fixtures could be worse.
By then i wouldn't be surprised if Hull are beginning to feel safe, Newcastle are on the beach and Sunderland are adrift offshore somewhere. Southampton are in the middle of a truly awful run at present although they've probably got enough points on the board to build from, so that just leaves Norwich and Everton operating at full pelt [which assumes Lukaku staying fit and fatigue not becoming a problem for Everton].
By then i wouldn't be surprised if Hull are beginning to feel safe, Newcastle are on the beach and Sunderland are adrift offshore somewhere. Southampton are in the middle of a truly awful run at present although they've probably got enough points on the board to build from, so that just leaves Norwich and Everton operating at full pelt [which assumes Lukaku staying fit and fatigue not becoming a problem for Everton].
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Not home by the looks of it..
Still doable, but far from being a guarantee. Clearly we need to improve to be able to do it.
Anyone got a link to the BBC predictor? Seems to have disappeared this season.