Top Four Race 2017/18

Havak

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I would be very surprised if Spurs goes to next round. Juventus have picked up and are on some amazing run.

In last 15 games they won 13 and drew 2. Conceded 1 goal and scored around 28.

In this run they played against Barca, Napoli, Inter, Roma.
Yeah, it will still be a brilliant tie though IMO. Spurs have hit a nice little unbeaten run themselves since getting battered by Man City. Played 10, Won 6, Drawn 4, Scored 24, Conceded 7. Get through their FA Cup tie and beat Arsenal, everything looks brilliant for them - they could even be in the Top 4 by that point. If Spurs come away from Turin with a 2-1 defeat, 1-1 draw, or better, then I'd give them a real chance of going through.
 

roonster09

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Yeah, it will still be a brilliant tie though IMO. Spurs have hit a nice little unbeaten run themselves since getting battered by Man City. Played 10, Won 6, Drawn 4, Scored 24, Conceded 7. Get through their FA Cup tie and beat Arsenal, everything looks brilliant for them - they could even be in the Top 4 by that point. If Spurs come away from Turin with a 2-1 defeat, 1-1 draw, or better, then I'd give them a real chance of going through.
Yeah, should be cracking tie. Hopefully it won't be over in the first leg itself.
 

Thisistheone

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Reckon it'll be:

City
Utd
Spurs
Liverpool

Unless Chelsea sacked Conte and get a big improvement from the players under a new manager.
 

Scroto Baggins

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Yeah, it will still be a brilliant tie though IMO. Spurs have hit a nice little unbeaten run themselves since getting battered by Man City. Played 10, Won 6, Drawn 4, Scored 24, Conceded 7. Get through their FA Cup tie and beat Arsenal, everything looks brilliant for them - they could even be in the Top 4 by that point. If Spurs come away from Turin with a 2-1 defeat, 1-1 draw, or better, then I'd give them a real chance of going through.
For Spurs they have had a lot of the longer term injury players return; Dembele, Wanyama, Lamela all back and playing, just Rose and Alderweireld still out now.

Chelsea are in poor form atm, the fact that they are going to most likely be knocked out of the CL by Barca may actually be beneficial for them making top 4. No CL games to have to squeeze in between league fixtures.
 

africanspur

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Arsenal at 1% to make the top 4 sounds way too low.
It does but I guess its based on a mixture of recent form (where Arsenal have been crap), number of points needed to go into 4th (5, with a worse GD), fixtures (a quarter of their remaining fixtures are against Man City, Spurs and Man Utd, two of them away) and the fact they have to overtake 2 clubs plays against them.

It does still seem a bit low though in fairness, you are right.
 

africanspur

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I'd be very surprised if Spurs don't go through against Juve
Appreciate the confidence but not quite as optimistic! Juve are still a very very strong team.

If we keep the first leg respectable though, we'll have a real chance back at Wembley. Hopefully Alderweirald gets some minutes against Newport and then Arsenal, would be great to have him and Vertonghen back together for such an important match.
 

Trikie

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Can't believe we're just 5 points off top four with the season we're having.
I know what mean. According to most on here Liverpool are so shit and inconsistent and yet we still sit in third spot only 5 points off second spot.
 

Scroto Baggins

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Yeah Arsenal win at Wembley and they are in business, Arsenal lose and they are gone.

I would be very surprised if Spurs goes to next round. Juventus have picked up and are on some amazing run.

In last 15 games they won 13 and drew 2. Conceded 1 goal and scored around 28.

In this run they played against Barca, Napoli, Inter, Roma.
Could work to Spurs advantage in the top 4 race if they get knocked out by Juve, probably a what? 50/50 chance. Maybe 60/40 Juventus' way. Spurs have been good value in the CL this season and I dont think will be a push over.
 

prateik

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Not having a go at you, but not sure why anyone even bother with all these. Has it ever worked in the projected way?
The fact that 1 round changed Chelsea's chances so much shows its pretty pointless.

1 poor performance, an early red card. Too many variables can result in a unexpected result. If it fluctuates that much, it isnt worth looking it
 

RedRom

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Appreciate the confidence but not quite as optimistic! Juve are still a very very strong team.

If we keep the first leg respectable though, we'll have a real chance back at Wembley. Hopefully Alderweirald gets some minutes against Newport and then Arsenal, would be great to have him and Vertonghen back together for such an important match.
Getting past Buffon is never an easy task, even at his advanced footballing age, which makes it such a fascinating tie, and one that I am most certainly looking forward to.
 

africanspur

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The fact that 1 round changed Chelsea's chances so much shows its pretty pointless.

1 poor performance, an early red card. Too many variables can result in a unexpected result. If it fluctuates that much, it isnt worth looking it
It wasn't one round only, its 2.

Spurs picked up 4 points from 2 difficult games against the team 2nd in the league and 3rd. Chelsea pick up 0 points against 2 teams in mid table.

I agree it is very difficult to predict (exactly because of results like that!) but its not quite based on just one game.
 

OneUnited24

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If we beat Spurs on saturday i'd give us about 20% of chance to reach the top 4, as apart from City and United, our fixtures are pretty easy, then.
But its usually the easy fixtures that have done you this season. TBH unless your away form improves you arent getting anywhere near the top 4.
 

breakout67

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What's with talk about 'only' 5,6,7 points. Are people not realizing that 5-7 points is a lot at this stage of the season.

Arsenal have to go on a perfect run which includes 6 away fixtures (so they have no hope of doing it). United have to be in relegation form because they are so far ahead (and the teams below them still have to play each other).

At this point, it's a scrap between Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.
 

singabiru

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Tottenham are peaking at the right time as is typical of them. Will displace Chelsea or Liverpool unfortunately at the end of the season.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Are we still the 5th best team in the league or does that poster only pop up when Utd drop points?
Yes, you are. Why would anything have changed in that regard? And I made that point before the Spurs game when United were on a winning run so I'm not sure what you're on about.
 

Rafateria

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If this was April, I'd agree, but there's still a lot of matches to play. Chelsea also face Spurs and Liverpool at home, so they have a slight advantage head-to-head.

I wouldn't be surprised if Liverpool/Spurs finish third at the expense of Chelsea.
Thanks to Red Sky for this :
CL - Chelsea v Barcelona 20th Feb
PL - United v Chelsea 25th Feb
PL - City v Chelsea 4th Mar
PL - Chelsea v Palace 10th Mar
CL - Barcelona v Chelsea 14th Mar
PL - Burnley v Chelsea 17th Mar
PL - Chelsea v Tottenham 1st Apr

They could have an FA Cup fixture in there too if they beat Hull on the 16th Feb.

And to me for posting this earlier (Chelsea's remaining away games) : United, City, Burnley, Southampton, Swansea and Newcastle.

They are in serious trouble IMHO. I think they are going to miss out on Top 4. Most people would have looked at Bournemouth and Watford and said that's their chance to consolidate 3rd, now however they are in a serious battle for 3rd to 5th and with by far the toughest away games and schedule of the three clubs.
 

Rafateria

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The fact that 1 round changed Chelsea's chances so much shows its pretty pointless.

1 poor performance, an early red card. Too many variables can result in a unexpected result. If it fluctuates that much, it isnt worth looking it
Again thanks to RedSky for this (I've updated it) :

If you look at their results in 2018:

Arsenal 2 : 2 Chelsea
Norwich 0 : 0 Chelsea
Chelsea 0 : 0 Arsenal
Chelsea 0 : 0 Leicester
Chelsea 1 : 1 Norwich
Brighton 0 : 4 Chelsea
Arsenal 2 : 1 Chelsea
Chelsea 3 : 0 Newcastle
Chelsea 0 : 3 Bournemouth
Watford 4 : 1 Chelsea

12 goals scored
12 goals conceded
2 wins
5 draws
3 losses

Does that look like a One Round down turn to you ?
 

prateik

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Again thanks to RedSky for this (I've updated it) :

If you look at their results in 2018:

Arsenal 2 : 2 Chelsea
Norwich 0 : 0 Chelsea
Chelsea 0 : 0 Arsenal
Chelsea 0 : 0 Leicester
Chelsea 1 : 1 Norwich
Brighton 0 : 4 Chelsea
Arsenal 2 : 1 Chelsea
Chelsea 3 : 0 Newcastle
Chelsea 0 : 3 Bournemouth
Watford 4 : 1 Chelsea

12 goals scored
12 goals conceded
2 wins
5 draws
3 losses

Does that look like a One Round down turn to you ?
It was in response to the tweet saying Chelseas chances fell from 81% to 42% since Wed. As @africanspur pointed out, it was 2 games and not 1. Still a pretty wild swing. Those numbers are for suckers. It changes way too wildly in a short period of time.. and all teams have been inconsistent. 2 points between 3rd and 5th is almost nothing. Could go any way.. Even Arsenal arent completely out of it.
 

squiggle

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If Arsenal beat Spurs there’ll only be a point between the teams and Arsenal are quite a new team now. I don’t think the away form so far this season is as relevant as it was.

I’d have had Spurs as strong favourite a couple of weeks ago but if Aubameyang, Ozil, Mkhitaryan and Ramsey can combine anything like as well as they did against Everton then I’m not sure.

Of course Spurs are a better team than Everton at the moment but still, Arsenal did look good.
 

DreamIsh

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I think it'll finish;

1. City
2. Liverpool
3. United
4. Spuds

5. Arsenal
6. Chelsea
I like the sound of that. :D

The only problem is, whilst others around us are not only susceptible to, but likely to, drop points. Liverpool being Liverpool will also drop points. Us finishing second would require a consistency from now till the end of the season I have yet to see.

Anything’s possible though
 

Kapardin

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I think it'll finish;

1. City
2. Liverpool
3. United
4. Spuds

5. Arsenal
6. Chelsea
Lol, have you ever seen Jose bottle a position of strength? Klopp on the other hand...

Bar a massive injury crisis, Liverpool aren't catching us. You should be looking behind though. If Arsenal beat Spurs, they are back in it and they could well be a dark horse with the Auba-Mkhi combo if it clicks.
 

charlenefan

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5th May
Chelsea v Liverpool

Potential Top 4 shoot out that one
 

Number1

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Be good if:-

City
United
Liverpool
Spurs

Get top4, think they would represent English football best next season in the Champions League.

Also rooting for Arsenal to win the Europa League so 5 English clubs are in the Champions League again next season.
 

cyberman

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@Pagh Wraith
The fact you only run Utd down with your nonsense and fail to update this thread with your analysis when other sides struggle?
Keep us updated as we go along buddy..
 

singabiru

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Who do you support?
Chelsea. Also, Man Utd seems to has settled down with the players showing familiarity with Mourinho’s system and the runners-up position is pretty much theirs.
 

DreamIsh

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I can't imagine anyone but the most blind of Liverpool fans thinking they'll finish 2nd.
I had to check the table again after reading this. You had me believe we were 16pts behind you.

It’s 5. 5pts.

Now that isn’t to say I think we’ll finish second. I don’t. We’re nowhere near consistent enough.

But it’s not a totally inconceivable idea. It could happen. I’ve seen stranger things (:D)