Top Four Race 2018/19

[awop]

So much doom and gloom We play Spurs and you at Old Trafford. By January 1st, i'm sure United will be back in the mix. We've barely passed a third of the season, a lot is still waiting to happen.

 

[Bearded One]

I was hopeful that Bournemouth would at least take 2 points off Arsenal

 

[FootyGirl88]

So much doom and gloom We play Spurs and you at Old Trafford. By January 1st, i'm sure United will be back in the mix. We've barely passed a third of the season, a lot is still waiting to happen.

It's actually not a joke - have you seen us play?

 

[Finn MacCool]

So much doom and gloom We play Spurs and you at Old Trafford. By January 1st, i'm sure United will be back in the mix. We've barely passed a third of the season, a lot is still waiting to happen.

Over the last five seasons the points total of the 4th placed team has been:

13/14 - 79
14/15 - 70
15/16 - 66
16/17 - 76
17/18 - 75

That's an average of 73.2. Of course you could argue that it would be more accurate to use the points totals of 5th place and just add one point, but this doesn't take into account results later in the season being affected by cup runs or last day results - eg technically last year Chelsea could have finished 4th had we lost our last game and they won theirs but the opposite happened meaning they finished five points behind on 70.

Right now it looks like it could be a record high amount required with 4th placed Chelsea on course for 82 pts at their current rate. But we're only one third of the way thru the season so alot can happen. From a Utd perspective you really need to take at least 15 points from your next 6 games to stay in with a chance. This would give you 36 at the halfway point, very close to the average required.

 

[Scroto Baggins]

It's actually not a joke - have you seen us play?

It's sad but oh so true. Watching Spurs demolish Chelsea after our Crystal Palace game was night and day.

 

[Seij]

15 points from your next 6 games.

So about the same chance as Fellaini winning the Ballon D'or.

 

[Canagel]

So much doom and gloom We play Spurs and you at Old Trafford. By January 1st, i'm sure United will be back in the mix. We've barely passed a third of the season, a lot is still waiting to happen.

We're not getting into the top 4. It doesn't matter how long is left. We can barely win 3 games in a row .

 

[awop]

We're not getting into the top 4. It doesn't matter how long is left. We can barely win 3 games in a row .

Maybe, maybe not. I still think fourth place batlle is a long way from being decided. Assuming City/Liverpool and Spurs (once they're out of the Champions League) are nailed on for the top 3, Chelsea will go far in the EL, teams are starting to figure out Jorginho by double teaming and roughing him up. I would not be surprised to see Sarri put Kante back to his original position at some point. And Arsenal well, we've been riding our luck, hard. It's bound to end and this could come very soon. We play United, Spurs twice and Liverpool in December. Add to that the Boxing Day schedule and some players are starting to get knocks here and there. The signs are there and i won't be at ease until we've played Chelsea mid January.
As much as i want United to draw every game until May, i'm sure you'll get 2 faces in in January and pick it up from there.

 

[ThierryHenry]

The United fans are obviously right. You only have to have watched the big six to see that there’s a huge gulf between United and the other five at present.

Without a complete turnaround in form, United have minimal prospects of finishing in the top four. They just don’t appear to have the ability to score regularly enough to win enough games. And it’s not as if they’re not taking chances, I’ve seen a few games where they don’t really seem to create anything.

The current top four looks most likely. Arsenal have a decent chance but we need to improve our defensive performances materially. Form has slowed down over the last month, that will bite us if it continues into December.

 

[Kapardin]

Let's try to finish ahead of Everton and Bournemouth first. I am not even confident on that front, let alone Top 4.

 

[GhastlyHun]

Btw, what's the source of this graph (as in, who put it together)? I googled a bit but couldn't find it.

 

[Tommy]

The United fans are obviously right. You only have to have watched the big six to see that there’s a huge gulf between United and the other five at present.

Without a complete turnaround in form, United have minimal prospects of finishing in the top four. They just don’t appear to have the ability to score regularly enough to win enough games. And it’s not as if they’re not taking chances, I’ve seen a few games where they don’t really seem to create anything.

The current top four looks most likely. Arsenal have a decent chance but we need to improve our defensive performances materially. Form has slowed down over the last month, that will bite us if it continues into December.

Sounds about right. I really thought United would finish 2nd this season, 3rd at worse, but I never would've imagined this sort of situation, despite the whole "Jose Third Season" stuff. It's gone catastrophically bad.

If Arsenal are to make top 4, it could be in place of any of the current 4 except for City. It could be a close one!

 

[RedSky]

Btw, what's the source of this graph (as in, who put it together)? I googled a bit but couldn't find it.

I did. /waves

 

[GhastlyHun]

I did. /waves

Ah, nice work! Planning on updating with the latest scores?

 

[RedSky]

Ah, nice work! Planning on updating with the latest scores?

I update every few games yeah. Will do it next weekend.

 

[Infra-red]

Season panning out as many predicted (including Mourinho himself).

Little to no prospect of a top 5 finish, let alone top 4.

 

[peridigm]

It's over...

https://www.football365.com/news/man-utd-must-set-new-record-just-to-finish-in-top-four

 

[SolidSnake007]

Around 3 wins behind the top 4 now.. so in theory we need 3 more wins than Chelsea/Arsenal in the next 23 games.

A tough ask, considering we will need to probably win every game to stand a chance with hoping they lose 3 games.. I don't see United getting top 4 TBH.. and by Woodward's history of sacking other managers who don't get top 4.. Jose should be getting his p45 - no exceptions this is the standard at this club.. top 4 is a MUST.

This is why I don't see the point in keeping Mourinho.. a new manager bounce could in theory help us get top 4.. but "business as usually" approach defiantly won't.

 

[WR10]

Can we expand it for top 7? Pretty clear we are fighting for 6/7 this season. 5 would be extraordinary and 4th would be Leicester winning the league odds

crystal clear

 

[AndyJ1985]

I'll be surprised if we finish within 10 points of 4th

 

[Jazz]

We're not getting top four. I wonder when it will become mathematically impossible? I can't wait because I can't stand much more of Jose.

 

[Minimalist]

Fecking told you. Doesn't matter if the points are within reach. This is a team that can't string a run of results together.

We have no chance - it's over already.

 

[RedSky]

If you remove the matches between the top 5 and check the results against the rest of the league you get the following:

Liverpool: Dropped 0 points
No Dropped Points

City: Dropped 2 points
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1:1 Manchester City

Tottenham: Dropped 3 points
Watford FC 2:1 Tottenham

Chelsea: Dropped 4 points
West Ham United 0:0 Chelsea
Chelsea 0:0 Everton

Arsenal: Dropped 4 points
Crystal Palace 2:2 Arsenal
Arsenal 1:1 Wolverhampton Wanderers

United: Dropped 12 points
Brighton & Hove Albion 3:2 Manchester United
Manchester United 1:1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
West Ham United 3:1 Manchester United
Manchester United 0:0 Crystal Palace
Southampton 2:2 Manchester United

Dropping points in 5 fixtures so far. We have more loses against the bottom clubs than the other 5 put together. This is why top 4 is a pipe dream this season imo.

 

[Damien]

We're not getting top four. I wonder when it will become mathematically impossible? I can't wait because I can't stand much more of Jose.

We are due to play Arsenal on 9th March and City on the 16th so I imagine shortly after those two games.

 

[Jazz]

We are due to play Arsenal on 9th March and City on the 16th so I imagine shortly after those two games.

Too long for me. Going to be torture.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Chelsea are very likely to beat Fulham at home tomorrow, so United will very likely be at least 8 points off top 4 come Sunday evening regardless of the result in Arsenal vs. Spurs.

If Spurs win or draw, then United will - assuming Chelsea win - be 9 points off top 4 (with Chelsea in 4th).

 

[Canagel]

It's done but who cares where we finish as long as we don't get relegated. 4th, 10th, 15th whatever . We play Arsenal and Liverpool in the next games so more points will be dropped . We're not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Tommy]

Chelsea are very likely to beat Fulham at home tomorrow, so United will very likely be at least 8 points off top 4 come Sunday evening regardless of the result in Arsenal vs. Spurs.

If Spurs win or draw, then United will - assuming Chelsea win - be 9 points off top 4 (with Chelsea in 4th).

10 points by virtue of goal difference, really.

 

[GlastonSpur]

10 points by virtue of goal difference, really.

True.

 

[RedSky]

Chelsea are very likely to beat Fulham at home tomorrow, so United will very likely be at least 8 points off top 4 come Sunday evening regardless of the result in Arsenal vs. Spurs.

If Spurs win or draw, then United will - assuming Chelsea win - be 9 points off top 4 (with Chelsea in 4th).

Which right now is effectively 10 points given our goal difference. All the top clubs are being so clinical against the smaller clubs that it's going to be very difficult for us to catch anyone up. For one, it would take an immediate turn around in our fortunes and go on a run of wins. Then we'd have to rely on two clubs dropping their form considerably.

I mean it's not impossible, but right now, given the form of all clubs. It's extremely unlikely we'll finish Top 4. Best we can hope for is one club goes into free fall and we can try and snatch the Europa space.

 

[redmeister]

City: Dropped 1 point
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1:1 Manchester City

They've dropped 2 points. A win would have given them 3 points, but they drew and got 1 point.

 

[RedSky]

They've dropped 2 points. A win would have given them 3 points, but they drew and got 1 point.

Correct, got the maths right on the others just a typo on the City one. My bad.

 

[jmaggio]

Title needs to be changed to race to avoid relegation.

 

[WR10]

Lads we have conceded more goals than any team in the top 15. It could actually be a battle for 13-15th

 

[Adisa]

Who was that guy arguing with everyone that we were going to do it?

 

[VJ1762]

Please change the title to Top 10 race. Top 4 is City, Liverpool, spurs and Chelsea(or Arsenal). Or better, please lock this thread. I see no use debating about it when we are not even in it.

 

[Poch]

If we beat Arsenal tomorrow I think the top 4 is done.

 

[B20]

If arsenal and chelsea win as expected, you'll be 8 points off the top 5 with a certain lower GD than any of them. I'd say you're basically out it.

 

[Treble]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

10% chance to make the top 4. In contrast, Arsenal 42 %, Chelsea 71% and Spurs 77 %.

 

[Antisocial]

On the upside, we might finish the weekend one position higher than now depending on how many Everton lose by at Anfield tomorrow, so not all bad...