Top Four Race 2018/19

[peridigm]

We're not getting top four. I wonder when it will become mathematically impossible? I can't wait because I can't stand much more of Jose.

Surely the board won't hold Jose to that myth to decide his fate. They must know at this point it's not going to happen. If money is their game, and it's pretty clear that is their game, they should think more about how much money United are losing by continuing to serve up these results and just pay Jose whatever he's due per his contract to be sacked now.

To stay on topic, I've been saying top 4 is not obtainable for weeks. Anyone who still thinks otherwise is diluted.

 

[kerryman]

Surely the board won't hold Jose to that myth to decide his fate. They must know at this point it's not going to happen. If money is their game, and it's pretty clear that is their game, they should think more about how much money United are losing by continuing to serve up these results and just pay Jose whatever he's due per his contract to be sacked now.

To stay on topic, I've been saying top 4 is not obtainable for weeks. Anyone who still thinks otherwise is diluted.

What makes people think we can get top 4, do they think we are going to improve dramatically all of a sudden?

We have conceded more than we have scored over the first 14 games, that is not top 4 form....more likely the form to finish around 7th-10th.

Based on results so far this season Utd are on track to reach 60 points and City to reach 103, let that sink in!
60 points will be way off what's needed for top 4.

We have struggled for points against some of the worst teams in the league and have had to come from 2-0 down against both Newcastle and Southampton.
We are now closer to the bottom team than the top after only 14 games!

 

[peridigm]

What makes people think we can get top 4, do they think we are going to improve dramatically all of a sudden?

We have conceded more than we have scored over the first 14 games, that is not top 4 form....more likely the form to finish around 7th-10th.

Based on results so far this season Utd are on track to reach 60 points and City to reach 103, let that sink in!
60 points will be way off what's needed for top 4.

We have struggled for points against some of the worst teams in the league and have had to come from 2-0 down against both Newcastle and Southampton.
We are now closer to the bottom team than the top after only 14 games!

Living in the past I guess. Except, in the past, at least under SAF, we would not be in this position.

 

[TAA]

Safe to say Utd and City are out of the race for top for but for very different reasons. City have 10points leed on 5th and i cant see them dropping 5 points let alone 10. Utd are 8 points off and looks like the gap will get bigger.

i think the top four will finish how it is now

 

[hellohello]

I checked the points after 15 games from last season. After 15 games Sarri's Chelsea got 1 point less than Conte's Chelsea, and Emery's Arsenal got 2 points more than Wengers Arsenal. I think both have done a good job, but the way the media have been reporting on it you wouldn't believe it's more or less identical from last season. Goes to show how the media love to push certain narratives.

 

[Ooh2B]

I checked the points after 15 games from last season. After 15 games Sarri's Chelsea got 1 point less than Conte's Chelsea, and Emery's Arsenal got 2 points more than Wengers Arsenal. I think both have done a good job, but the way the media have been reporting on it you wouldn't believe it's more or less identical from last season. Goes to show how the media love to push certain narratives.

Interesting that, but I would also draw attention to the fact that at this stage AFC had already lost 4 games I believe, and were only 6 goals into positive territory around that point last year. This year of course we’ve lost 2 and the GD is in the teens.

But you are right, the media push what suits their agenda.

 

[Paxi]

Nothing I've seen this season which remotely indicates at top 4 finish from United. On top of that we have to hope 2 out of 3 other teams feck up massively. It's not happening. More chance of winning the Champions League and that's a fecking pipe dream in it self.

 

[redshaw]

We're on course for around the 60+ points range. Last two seasons the top 4 cut-off was 75-76 points and 2017 had Arsenal at 75 in 5th.

When Leicester won it was 66 points for 4th but Liverpool were 8th and Chelsea were 10th.

We need a very good run and probably two teams to collapse. I'm just not seeing it happen.

With 23 games left, 16 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses would take us to 75 points.

We go 2 down to Southampton who've only won one league game.

Last season's form needs to be suddenly switched on.

 

[Scroto Baggins]

The top two seem nailed on. Who gets 3rd-5th is interesting. Who is the best out of Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal?

Arsenal seem revitalised under Emery. Have Chelsea been found out? Spurs seem to be grinding out results. Tough to call 3rd - 5th.

 

[jmaggio]

It’s december and there are already some things I can say for sure

City will win the league
Liverpool, spurs and Chelsea will get top 4
Cardiff will go down
Mourinho will be sacked
Juve will win CL

Wake me up in August ffs.

 

[hellohello]

Interesting that, but I would also draw attention to the fact that at this stage AFC had already lost 4 games I believe, and were only 6 goals into positive territory around that point last year. This year of course we’ve lost 2 and the GD is in the teens.

But you are right, the media push what suits their agenda.

Yeah I agree, definitely reasons to be positive for Arsenal but it's still early and we've seen many examples of teams who start the season well and then run out of steam. Wenger usually started the season strongly, but the last few seasons his teams usually fell off around January iirc? Emery need to show he can avoid that, and I think he will, and even if he doesn't I think there are other positives.

I just wish the media wouldn't paint everything as black and white.

 

[Kapardin]

We're on course for around the 60+ points range. Last two seasons the top 4 cut-off was 75-76 points and 2017 had Arsenal at 75 in 5th.

When Leicester won it was 66 points for 4th but Liverpool were 8th and Chelsea were 10th.

We need a very good run and probably two teams to collapse. I'm just not seeing it happen.

With 23 games left, 16 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses would take us to 75 points.

We go 2 down to Southampton who've only won one league game.

Last season's form needs to be suddenly switched on.

We are not getting 4th. There are five teams better than us.

I reckon a season out of the CL will be good for us as Woodward will be forced to sanction spending on new signings as opposed to renewing contracts for the likes of Young and Valencia. The Glazers always act if we are out of CL.

 

[Bestietom]

We ain't gonna get into top 4.

 

[Casanova85]

My current prediction:

City
Liverpool
Arsenal
Chelsea

 

[Casanova85]

It’s december and there are already some things I can say for sure

City will win the league
Liverpool, spurs and Chelsea will get top 4
Cardiff will go down
Mourinho will be sacked
Juve will win CL

Wake me up in August ffs.

Juve will lose yet another CL final. Specially if Barcelona are the rivals.

 

[redshaw]

We are not getting 4th. There are five teams better than us.

I reckon a season out of the CL will be good for us as Woodward will be forced to sanction spending on new signings as opposed to renewing contracts for the likes of Young and Valencia. The Glazers always act if we are out of CL.

Never said we remotely were. I've said ages ago a few times the top 5 is City, Liverpool and Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs.

I'm actually highlighting what it would take as some still think there's hope.

Voted 6th place in this thread last month and put us in a 6th-10th range.
https://www.redcafe.net/threads/where-will-we-finish.441669/page-5#post-23334069

Also in my post I said I don't see it happening and say we're on course for around 60 points and show examples of how short we'll fall.

 

[Bearded One]

We need to have a stupendously consistent run if we are going to make top 4. Also we have to be active in the January transfer window.

 

[minoo-utd]

Can we fight Arsenal and Chelsea to 4th?

 

[GlastonSpur]

Still looking good for Spurs for top 4, back into 3rd place and now having played 10 away games out of 16.

 

[JamesO]

Still looking good for Spurs for top 4, back into 3rd place and now having played 10 away games out of 16.

You really need to stop banging this drum about the amount of Spurs' away games. They're doing really well but Liverpool have played 9 away games so Spurs aren't at some huge disadvantage compared to every single team in the league.

 

[PoTMS]

Lads, don't do it to yourselves. It's the hope that kills you. We'll have to show near enough title winning form to get top four now.

 

[peridigm]

The sooner you all accept we're not finishing in the top 4 the sooner you will all rest easy at night. I just hope we don't finish in EL spots.

 

[GlastonSpur]

You really need to stop banging this drum about the amount of Spurs' away games. They're doing really well but Liverpool have played 9 away games so Spurs aren't at some huge disadvantage compared to every single team in the league.

First, it's not a disadvantage - it's an advantage to be sitting in 3rd with so many 'home' games to come.

Second, we've played more away games so far than all of our top 4 rivals (I don't care about every single team in the league), including three more than both Chelsea and Arsenal.

 

[JamesO]

First, it's not a disadvantage - it's an advantage to be sitting in 3rd with so many 'home' games to come.

Second, we've played more away games so far than all of our top 4 rivals (I don't care about every single team in the league), including three more than both Chelsea and Arsenal.

My point is you're mentioning it after every away game you play that's all. It's getting funny that I knew I'd come on here and read about it after your win.

 

[C'mon FC]

It looks like the top 4 are actually top 5.

Predicitions:
Champion: City (They have by far the strongest squad -> you don't feel that someone like DeBruyne is missing)
Runner-up: Pool (they have a fantastic season but good lucky e.g. vs Everton -> I think they won't manage to beat Cities' dominance)
3-5: No idea but it's super exiting:
Arsenal after a bad start with quite the run the cause Oezil might get problematic sooner or later.
Chelsea with some small problems (7 points out of 5 games) winning vs. the leader in convincing fashion but have the weakest attack imo (Moratta & Giroud)
Tottenham with the best balance overall. Just what happens if 1 cog gets stuck (Kane not in form or similar)?

6th: United. Don't see them getting a winning streak (which is definitly required). Already too many points have been lost.

 

[GlastonSpur]

My point is you're mentioning it after every away game you play that's all. It's getting funny that I knew I'd come on here and read about it after your win.

Fair enough. I promise not to mention it again until at least the New Year

 

[Mogget]

Still looking good for Spurs for top 4, back into 3rd place and now having played 10 away games out of 16.

Technically, you've played 16 away games

 

[trailertrash]

My predictions for the season are like this:
Champions: City. KDB and Agüero will be back soon and they'll start putting it to everyone again. Gabriel Jesus has been shocking, but Sterling/Sane/Mahrez/Bernardo are contributing so much that it's not even a problem. Life is good.
Runner-up: Liverpool. They wont keep going at this rate. There have been so many games, where they should've lost points, but got away miraculously. It's what it takes to become a champion, but hey, it's Liverpool...

3rd place: Clutch FC. Sarri will have his impact sooner or later. Morata can bottle all he want, but Hazard will create enough probably. Giroud will also contribute with some good goals from the bench.
4th place: Spurs. They pretty much get the results similarly to Liverpool. They are maybe not dominating as much and not creating enough, but they get the goals needed.

5th place: Arsenal. Suspect at the back and Xhaka doing his usual stuff will cost them points at some point. They are converting at an insane rate(saw goals per chances chart somewhere) and getting stuff done, but this isn't sustainable.
6th place: United. Grinding out wins vs bottom of the table and parking vs top6 to get some draws should get them to 6th, but not higher.


Relegation:

Palace - Just a really bad team all around + Zaha. They show up vs some, but overall suck really bad and would be surprised if they stayed up.*
Huddersfield - Can't score for shit and haven't had much luck either so far. Been pretty decent last 3 games, but got 0 points from these. Worst home team of the league. Pretty much says it all. They'll go down.
Fulham - Think Ranieri can't save this ship. Worst defense of the league(2.5 goals against/game) so far and getting absolutely destroyed away from home.

 

[Santi_Mesut_Alexis_87]

Apart from the first 2 places, it's difficult to predict. Chelsea, Tottenham and us are all doing well playing sometimes well, sometimes not.

 

[FootballHQ]

Apart from the first 2 places, it's difficult to predict. Chelsea, Tottenham and us are all doing well playing sometimes well, sometimes not.

Pardon the pun but seems you're all spuring each other on. After Arsenal late goal you must've been very confident you'd finish this weekend at least two clear of Chelsea with way they've played recently...and then they go and beat City.

Spurs lose a game, people think they'll fall away like every other season and they come back stronger.

Very difficult to call final two spots as Liverpool and Man. City are locks (unless UEFA grow some balls).

 

[RedSky]

Tottenham I think will get 3rd place and here's my reasoning.

Home Fixtures Against Bottom 14 Already Played:
Arsenal - 6 played - 16 points
Chelsea - 5 played - 13 points
Tottenham - 3 played - 9 points

Away Fixtures Against Bottom 14 Already Played:
Tottenham - 8 played - 21 points
Chelsea - 6 played - 13 points
Arsenal - 5 played - 13 points

Tottenham because of the fixture list debacle have already played and won a lot of away fixtures, they've only slipped up once in 8 games. They also have barely touched their home fixtures against the bottom 14 clubs on paper they have a much easier fixture list. In the next 10 PL games they have to face one Top 6 team (United at Home). They've got a pretty simple run of games coming up.

Chelsea for example have only 1 top 6 team left to play at Home but have 4 top 6 away fixtures remaining. Arsenal and Tottenham both have 2 Home fixtures and 3 Away.

So on paper, I think Tottenham have played the harder fixtures so far and are still above Chelsea/Arsenal. Predicting 4th place though is very difficult, no idea who it could be from Arsenal/Chelsea. It could go right to the wire.

 

[BrianMcClair'sBarnet]

City
Liverpool
Chelsea
Spurs
----------------
Arsenal
United

The only real battle I can see is Chelsea and Liverpool fighting for 2nd spot and Spurs and Arsenal battling for 4th.
Think City will eventually cruise to the title once again and we'll be comfortable,with some points off 5th and 7th,in 6th.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tottenham I think will get 3rd place and here's my reasoning.

Home Fixtures Against Bottom 14 Already Played:
Arsenal - 6 played - 16 points
Chelsea - 5 played - 13 points
Tottenham - 3 played - 9 points

Away Fixtures Against Bottom 14 Already Played:
Tottenham - 8 played - 21 points
Chelsea - 6 played - 13 points
Arsenal - 5 played - 13 points

Tottenham because of the fixture list debacle have already played and won a lot of away fixtures, they've only slipped up once in 8 games. They also have barely touched their home fixtures against the bottom 14 clubs on paper they have a much easier fixture list. In the next 10 PL games they have to face one Top 6 team (United at Home). They've got a pretty simple run of games coming up.

Chelsea for example have only 1 top 6 team left to play at Home but have 4 top 6 away fixtures remaining. Arsenal and Tottenham both have 2 Home fixtures and 3 Away.

So on paper, I think Tottenham have played the harder fixtures so far and are still above Chelsea/Arsenal. Predicting 4th place though is very difficult, no idea who it could be from Arsenal/Chelsea. It could go right to the wire.

Good analysis, and although I wouldn't care to predict whether we'll finish 3rd or 4th I do think a top 4 spot is likely.

We finished 3rd last season on 77 points, but in comparison so far this season we are 8 points better off after game week 16, and 9 points better off in relation to the same/equivalent fixtures … which currently would put us on target for 85 or 86 points.

 

[Adisa]

Last few pages have been dominated by non United fans.

 

[Kapardin]

My predictions for the season are like this:
Champions: City. KDB and Agüero will be back soon and they'll start putting it to everyone again. Gabriel Jesus has been shocking, but Sterling/Sane/Mahrez/Bernardo are contributing so much that it's not even a problem. Life is good.
Runner-up: Liverpool. They wont keep going at this rate. There have been so many games, where they should've lost points, but got away miraculously. It's what it takes to become a champion, but hey, it's Liverpool...

If you look at it, the winner will probably rack up 95-100 points and the runner-up will be on 90-95 in all likelihood, close to the winner but just short.

Assuming Liverpool come second, it will be interesting to see if coming second with the highest points tally in quite sometime, which would have won them the league any other season, would motivate them for the next season, or cause them to feel, "feck it, we just can't seem to win" and just deflate.

 

[P-Nut]

Last few pages have been dominated by non United fans.

We're not involved any more that's why. Look nailed on to finish 6th with a really boring season.

 

[hellohello]

If you look at it, the winner will probably rack up 95-100 points and the runner-up will be on 90-95 in all likelihood, close to the winner but just short.

Assuming Liverpool come second, it will be interesting to see if coming second with the highest points tally in quite sometime, which would have won them the league any other season, would motivate them for the next season, or cause them to feel, "feck it, we just can't seem to win" and just deflate.

Out of interest, does anyone have the highest point total of a second placed team?

 

[C'mon FC]

Out of interest, does anyone have the highest point total of a second placed team?

11/12: 89 points Utd runner up to City (also 89 points).

*I checked back to season 97/98

 

[Changeisgood]

Tottenham I think will get 3rd place and here's my reasoning.

Home Fixtures Against Bottom 14 Already Played:
Arsenal - 6 played - 16 points
Chelsea - 5 played - 13 points
Tottenham - 3 played - 9 points

Away Fixtures Against Bottom 14 Already Played:
Tottenham - 8 played - 21 points
Chelsea - 6 played - 13 points
Arsenal - 5 played - 13 points

Tottenham because of the fixture list debacle have already played and won a lot of away fixtures, they've only slipped up once in 8 games. They also have barely touched their home fixtures against the bottom 14 clubs on paper they have a much easier fixture list. In the next 10 PL games they have to face one Top 6 team (United at Home). They've got a pretty simple run of games coming up.

Chelsea for example have only 1 top 6 team left to play at Home but have 4 top 6 away fixtures remaining. Arsenal and Tottenham both have 2 Home fixtures and 3 Away.

So on paper, I think Tottenham have played the harder fixtures so far and are still above Chelsea/Arsenal. Predicting 4th place though is very difficult, no idea who it could be from Arsenal/Chelsea. It could go right to the wire.

Spurs are playing at Wembley are they not? Not sure how much home field advantage that is. It is sounding pretty quiet in there. Bottom line is you beat who is in front of you on the day. Over 20+ games remaining a schedule does not matter much. I've seen schedules over the years where I am sure we'll clean up and we drop points left right and center.

For me Spurs like us and Chelsea have been a little erratic form wise. The two teams who piece it together over the next 22 league games (could still be Man Utd too) will get a CL spot. Impossible to tell in my opinion right now judging on current form.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Spurs are playing at Wembley are they not? Not sure how much home field advantage that is. It is sounding pretty quiet in there. Bottom line is you beat who is in front of you on the day. Over 20+ games remaining a schedule does not matter much. I've seen schedules over the years where I am sure we'll clean up and we drop points left right and center.

For me Spurs like us and Chelsea have been a little erratic form wise. The two teams who piece it together over the next 22 league games (could still be Man Utd too) will get a CL spot. Impossible to tell in my opinion right now judging on current form.

Yes, but hopefully (touch wood) that will only be for 3 or 4 more games … which would leave 8 or 9 home games afterwards in our new stadium.