Whoever finishes 4th this season will be a shitty shitty side and very lucky.
Top Four Race 2018/19
- Thread starter Damien
- Start date
Makes the Everton loss even more unbearable. They had one job.
Points total for teams that finished 4th the last 10 years
2018 Liverpool 75 points
2017 Liverpool 76 points
2016 Man City 66 points
2015 Man United 70 points
2014 Arsenal 79 points
2013 Arsenal 73 points
2012 Tottehham 69 points
2011 Arsenal 68 points
2010 Tottenham 70 points
2009 Arsenal 72 points
Its looking like 73/74 points will be the total this season.
2018 Liverpool 75 points
2017 Liverpool 76 points
2016 Man City 66 points
2015 Man United 70 points
2014 Arsenal 79 points
2013 Arsenal 73 points
2012 Tottehham 69 points
2011 Arsenal 68 points
2010 Tottenham 70 points
2009 Arsenal 72 points
Its looking like 73/74 points will be the total this season.
Feck knows why they would be bookies favourites to beat us at Old Trafford. We played them twice this season, both at Stamford Bridge, and completely outplayed them both times (with 2 different managers). They haven't beaten us at Old Trafford since Fergie's last season when we had the title sewn up and had nothing to play for, and before that was in 09/10 when Drogba was about 2 yards offside.
And just look at the fixtures and you'll see why we'll probably finish above them. They'll be focusing on the Europa league. Away to United, at best they'd hope for a draw in pretty much any given season, regardless of how shite we've been post Fergie. Home to Watford who are FA cup finalists and love to upset the big teams, especially between 2 semi final games so they'll likely rest a good chunk of players, can easily be like burnley today. Last game away to Leicester, again, I can't see them winning that. If we draw to Chelsea, we'll probably end level on points at worst, but behind on GD. They have 3 points more because they have 1 game played more (though assuming we lose to City, that's 3 points with same games). They have struggled since the start of year. They beat Spurs at home 2-0 in February, but other than that? Haven't had a single impressive performance in the league against any solid side. Beating West Ham at home is the closest they've had, but nothing against a top half side other than Spurs at home, nothing at all away against non-relegated sides (or soon to be relegated like Cardiff).
Anyway, we'll see how it pans out. I'd say there is a very slim chance that they finish in the top 4 though. Arsenal are the favourites, and if they beat Wolves in mid week then it'll be pretty much done. Don't think they will though. Chelsea will be 6th just because they're shite and have tough fixtures while also focusing on the Europa League over the premier league.
Beat City, win your game against Chelsea and there's no way back for Chelsea.
Draw with City, win your game against Chelsea and there's no way back for Chelsea.
Lose to City and your game against Chelsea is meaningless.
(I'm keeping Arsenal out of this on the assumption they're going to feck up all their away games)
Draw with City, win your game against Chelsea and there's no way back for Chelsea.
Lose to City and your game against Chelsea is meaningless.
(I'm keeping Arsenal out of this on the assumption they're going to feck up all their away games)
Lose to City and beat Chelsea and we're level on points. It'd be Arsenal that would be in the driving seat then though
You'll be level on points but miles behind on goal difference. If you're not above Chelsea after the weekend then it's not Arsenal you've got to worry about.
Chelsea have a better gd than us (+6). At this point of the season with 4 games left this a huge advantage for them.
No one wants fourth.
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Look at the remaining fixture after that and factor in European distractions. I’d struggle to see Chelsea as favourites over United then.
A 2-0 win or equivalent brings that down to +2 with 2 games to go with games against terrible sides
No way are we getting it. People just need to go back and watch the Everton game and see how wretched we were. It's impossible to turn around that kind of performance without a major surgery first.
Now Chelsea draw.....
Our loss at Everton keeps getting worse.
Win 3 out 4 and we'll be in.
Our loss at Everton keeps getting worse.Win 3 out 4 and we'll be in.
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Its football. Teams lose form and gain form. Shit happens. Performance was awful and we'll likely lose to City midweek, but 3 wins from our last 3 (the last 2 are practically as easy as it gets) and we stand a good chance. Whether people think we are good enough, deserve it, whatever, it doesnt matter. Fact is that since Ole took over we've picked up 38 points from 17 games, a rate of 2.23 ppg (84/85 points over a season). We have 4 games left, 3 at home where we have just 1 loss in the league all season (against spurs very early on), and 3 very winnable games from that group. Get 9 of the 12 points and we end on 73 points, which is a good chance that 4th has that many. Unfortunately for us, I think arsenal will beat us on GD, but we'll see.
Nah. Chelsea have Watford and Leicester away as their last 2 while having EL semi finals. United have Huddersfield and Cardiff. That's almost definitely dropped points for Chelsea and 6 points for us.
The likeliest scenario if you look at the fixtures would have Chelsea finishing 6th. They are ahead because they have more fixtures played and because they played their easy games and are now left with 3 difficult games. Wouldnt bet on them getting more than a draw in any of those.
Arsenal are for sure in the drivers seat, but its Arsenal so theres a fair chance they feck it up.
While Man City and Liverpool refuse to give up on Premier League title. Spurs, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal refuse to secure top 4.
With only 3-4 matches to go till the end of the season, none of those clubs seem to be in any hurry.
Also if anyone thinks the quality of mid to lower table teams in premier league is not very good, you just need to look at the results of Spurs, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal.
You will be forced to take game to Chelsea and they can just sit back and wait for their chances on the counter.
With only 3-4 matches to go till the end of the season, none of those clubs seem to be in any hurry.
Also if anyone thinks the quality of mid to lower table teams in premier league is not very good, you just need to look at the results of Spurs, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal.
If you lose to city, you will be 3 points behind Chelsea, with 3 back to back defeats. The pressure will be on you to perform and not chelsea. Getting result in a such a situation is the hardest thing to do.
You will be forced to take game to Chelsea and they can just sit back and wait for their chances on the counter.
How are people so sure we'll even beat Cardiff and Huddersfield? It's as if some on here don't actually watch us lately, we're dreadful.
The annoying thing yesterday was that we played some really nice football first half and then pissed it away with a stupid defensive error. If we can attack like that until the end of the season I still fancy us for top 4.
Behave. Those are walkovers.
If we have a good chance of top 4 after chelsea we couldn't ask for better games than two of the all time worst top flight teams.
Cardiff might be tough if they aren't confirmed relegated/safe by then, though it is the last game of the season so hopefully they will be. Huddersfield should be a walkover but then again, it is their last PL home game and it could be for some time. What better opportunity to say your goodbyes by beating Man United in your final home game?
Nevertheless, we really should be beating these teams. We have to assume we will, because if we can't then we honestly don't deserve top 4.
Nevertheless, we really should be beating these teams. We have to assume we will, because if we can't then we honestly don't deserve top 4.
They would've won against Chelsea if not for some terrible officiating and held us in check for most of the game as well last weekend. They're not a good team by any means but there's no reason to think that you'll handily beat them, let alone that it will be a walkover - especially not if they still have a chance to overtake Brighton on the last game of the season.
I think you'll close out with a 5/12, 7/12 max and miss out on top 4. There won't be a sudden drastic change in your confidence or playing style this late in the season anymore.
Agree that we won't make it.we'll lose tomorrow and i can't imagine arsenal will throw the chance away again.
Beating chelsea will be no given as wed be on a run of about 7 defeats in 9.
But i do disagree on the two poor teams. We'll ease it 2 or 3 nils.cardiff will be long down
There's just nothing in our play and confidence lately that suggests we'll ease to any wins for the remainder of the season. The proof has been on display blatantly for weeks.
Brighton play Spurs, Arsenal and City in 3 of their last 4 games. If they don't win against Newcastle at home, there's a good chance they'll close out the season with a 0/12. Cardiff have Fulham and Palace left before the United game... It's possible certainly yeah, but I wouldn't be certain about it.
Tottenham have the easiest schedule left and will be all but certain if they win tonight, I feel. Chelsea have a tough one and so have Arsenal. If United gets a win tomorrow I could see the momentum shifting but that's a huge task. I'll be supporting you nonetheless
Time to bring this back
Yep. That's why we need to keep tomorrow subtle. A mere one goal. Then smash chelsea 3-0 and rack some.goals up last two
The good news is that we will see exactly what sort of character these groups of players have.
That 4-0 an embarrassment should have been the end of our season, but we've been gifted an opportunity to salvage 4th. It'll be a test for these players mental capacity, and Ole for that matter, to see if they actually come out and motivated and prepared to win against City. If they roll over again, finishing 4th wouldn't matter anyway as we'll need a massive rebuild.
Amazing set of results this weekend, I wonder what the odds were if all of the top 4 chasers dropped points?
Win tonight and we have some breathing space, can't see Arsenal getting anything from Wolves and same for Utd against City.
Picture will be much more clearer after this weekend anyway.
Win tonight and we have some breathing space, can't see Arsenal getting anything from Wolves and same for Utd against City.
Picture will be much more clearer after this weekend anyway.
Unbelievable that the Top3-4 race is still alive.
Spuds, Arse, Chelski, Man Utd, all wankers.
Spuds, Arse, Chelski, Man Utd, all wankers.
if you lose wednesday which you probably will, you are same games played but 6 worse off on GD and 3 pts behind. That GD can be like an extra point We havent been great since the start of the year but you have lost 6 of your last 7 in all comps is it? Right now Utd are least likely to get top 4.
Watford will be more concerned with the cup final and any league game will be least of their worries. Leicester I think we could beat and i think we can beat you Sunday
You havent beaten us at Old Trafford since Fergie retired and have been awful in every big away game for ages now. Watford will have 2 weeks from your game with them til the final, if anything they'll see that game as ideal prep. Not to mention it is in between 2 semi final games for you lot (and your record after EL games has been very poor.
We're on a bad run, true, but that was mostly due to fixtures, a natural loss of form after a huge winning run combined with losing confidence. The way Chelsea has been since the new year, I'm not sure why you would be optimistic about getting a single league win looking at your fixtures. Certainly not away to United or Leicester given you have the Europa league semi finals. Its football and anything can happen, but Chelsea have been wank for ages under Sarri and the EL is definitely looking like the priority and I really cant see Chelsea picking up more than 4 points from the last 3 games.
It's the hope that kills you ! Chelsea are shit but can't see Arsenal dropping that many points (more than 6 if we lose tomorrow)
Arse are unreliable as feck!
I honestly thought we were out of it after Sunday but Arsenal being Arsenal and Chelsea's slip up last night still means its all to play for.
If we can get something on Wednesday and beat Chelsea on Sunday, I'd be confident we'd finish fourth as the other 2 have at least on paper anyway, tougher games left than us, and Europa semi finals to think about, which after next weekends matches, they both might feel the Europa gives them the best chance of securing a CL spot.
I really do feel it's down to us.
If we can get something on Wednesday and beat Chelsea on Sunday, I'd be confident we'd finish fourth as the other 2 have at least on paper anyway, tougher games left than us, and Europa semi finals to think about, which after next weekends matches, they both might feel the Europa gives them the best chance of securing a CL spot.
I really do feel it's down to us.
I don't, fairly sure we'll finish 5th / 6th, barring some shock results for the others chasers.
We have a reasonable chance against Arsenal / Valencia if we make it to the Europa league final though. I think if we do get in the final, and get beat again, Sarri will be done and we'll get a counter attacking manager back in next season. Pretty much make or break competition for him.
Generally I'm pretty flat about the 4th place "trophy" anyway though or even getting CL via the EL, EL trophy would be nice though. Getting CL would be good for the extra £30m+ revenue compared to Europa obviously, we'll just be making the numbers up though.
My feeling is with our current squad, and the transfer ban, our best chance of winning things in foreseeable future is with a more pragmatic manager. Sarri has rest of the season though to prove he can be a "winner".
You never know that for sure. You could've gotten to the CL semis this year by going through Schalke and Porto for example. Even if it's a small chance, I'd prefer going out in the Round of 16 against a European giant rather than still be playing the likes of Slavia Prague midway through April. The EL is only nice if you win the competition, otherwise it's just another year out of the CL.
I'm pretty sure Arsenal will drop more points, just not we'll beat Chelsea.
Chelsea is the big one. If Utd win that I think the fat lady will be clearing her throat. (assuming you get nothing out of City)
I don't get this desire for a 'more pragmatic manager' (and lots of other Chelsea fans think the same as you). Both Liverpool and City, the teams ripping up the PL today both brought in managers who looked pretty crap in their first year but went on to build great teams. We have a manager who is renowned for doing exactly that, and who told us from the start it was going to take time to work. So now we chuck him after 1 season and go back to 'pragmatism'?
Especially if the ban stands, we'd be barking mad to sack the manager who more than any other in Roman's time has actually brought through young players (and still gets insulted for not doing).
Based on current form it is tough for Arsenal to pick up points for the remaining games. Luckily Chelsea and Man Utd's form aren't any better. I have a feeling Emery probably is betting on EL for CL qualification next season based on his team selection for games.
We will probably lose to wolves and Leicester, win at home vs Brigthon, win or tie vs Burnley. so 4 point, or best case 6 point.
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