Volkswagen Admits to Cheating US Emissions Tests

Jippy

Sleeps with tramps, bangs jacuzzis, dirty shoes
Staff
Joined
Nov 19, 2009
Messages
57,496
Location
Jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams
Was out with a fund manager earlier and he pooh-poohed my thesis that it'll end in a rights issue. It's a fair point he raised- Porsche family owns c51%- they pump in millions into a cash raising or lose their majority stake. He admits it is worst case scenario though. He used to be an autos analyst- VW used to make parts for V2 rockets. Dodgy history.
 

Man of Leisure

Threatened by women who like sex.
Joined
Mar 14, 2014
Messages
13,932
Location
One Big Holiday
VW stock has been getting absolutely hammered. It's down almost 60% off its high. Might be a good time to go in. Toughest call is guessing how this may affect future sales and EPA fines.
 

Dans

Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
26,980
Location
Oberbayern
VW stock has been getting absolutely hammered. It's down almost 60% off its high. Might be a good time to go in. Toughest call is guessing how this may affect future sales and EPA fines.
I got it at 116,50 on a day when it had sunk as low as 103.

Shortly after I bought, it was at 125. This week it's been as low as 104 I think it is. Currently trading at 109, up on the day.
 

Dans

Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
26,980
Location
Oberbayern
I have a friend who suggests this is the tip of the iceberg

Lets be honest VW is a big group and 100's of people would have worked on this software and its implementation... thousands would have known about its use through the supply chain / management / lawyers etc.

Its inconceivable that not one (probably many many more) of these people never went to work for another car company and they must have had the conversation as to if / how they do it here.

If no other car companies did it you can be sure as soon as they found out that they would have called the authorities themselves and this would have been found out about a lot quicker - alternatively if they are all at it they would absorb the knowledge of how to do it better and apply it themselves.

My friend works in the electronics industry - he designs components and systems for car manufacturers - so yeah if he says its the tip of the iceberg I take it seriously.
Which would take a lot of the sting out of the VW specific problem if true.
 

Hal9000

Full Member
Joined
May 24, 2010
Messages
6,318
Could we see the collapse of the group? Certainly don't think they will sell in the US again...

Between the fines levied on them from nearly every country that legally can, to the cost of fixing/recalling the cars and the compensation they will have to pay out to owners. They are going to lose a feck tonne of money, and due to loss of consumer confidence they probably see a huge hit on sales.
 

Dans

Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
26,980
Location
Oberbayern
I would be astonished if VW collapsed.

They have loads of cash and if the above post about other car manufacturers cars also emitting far more in real life is true.......well they won't all collapse will they?

In fact imagine if the actual test procedures and specs themselves turn out to be more the issue (if all these cars prove to emit more in real life). Then this all becomes some other organisation's problem to some degree.

Whilst VW have admitted cheating, the attention might well deflect enough away from them for the share price to be an absolute steal and frankly, if emissions for all cars are way understated, then the playing field is level again, and on a level playing field, VW cars are still head and shoulders above most of their competitor's cars.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
134,227
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons

Dans

Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
26,980
Location
Oberbayern
What I want to know is when you put the car through it's MOT, well, at least here anyway (where it's called the HU and AU), are these particular emissions not measured and do they only measure CO2 emissions? This must be the case else we'd all have been noticing numbers that don't meet the manufacturers specs at the latest 2 years after buying a new car. So, I can only conclude that the deception was pushed through with because they only had to fool testers once - and they pretty much did those tests themselves! Crazily slack.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,440
Location
Hollywood CA
I would be astonished if VW collapsed.

They have loads of cash and if the above post about other car manufacturers cars also emitting far more in real life is true.......well they won't all collapse will they?

In fact imagine if the actual test procedures and specs themselves turn out to be more the issue (if all these cars prove to emit more in real life). Then this all becomes some other organisation's problem to some degree.

Whilst VW have admitted cheating, the attention might well deflect enough away from them for the share price to be an absolute steal and frankly, if emissions for all cars are way understated, then the playing field is level again, and on a level playing field, VW cars are still head and shoulders above most of their competitor's cars.
They won't - they would almost certainly be propped up by the Government as the auto industry is too important in Germany, and much like the US government stepped in to bailout GM.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,440
Location
Hollywood CA
Another way to play the VW collapse is to invest in Palladium since it is used in the diesel catalytic converters.
 

Dans

Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
26,980
Location
Oberbayern
They won't - they would almost certainly be propped up by the Government as the auto industry is too important in Germany, and much like the US government stepped in to bailout GM.
1 in 7 workers in Germany rely on it. Amazing.
 

Sultan

Gentleness adorns everything
Joined
Sep 1, 2004
Messages
48,569
Location
Redcafe
Is there any chance VW will give money back or compensate customers who own their vehicles fitted with these devices?
 

Organic Potatoes

Full Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
Messages
17,171
Location
85R723R2+R6
Supports
Colorado Rapids
Seems us Yanks can't do a single thing right in global affairs other than hammer European-based companies. (Well, I guess there's Iran.)

Where do you place this on the list of auto-maker scandals? GM's faulty ignition resulting in many deaths...Toyota's acceleration glitch... I'd say on a morality scale it's less (unless you can argue successfully those extra emissions resulted in deaths), but from a financial perspective it may hurt worse.
 

adexkola

Doesn't understand sportswashing.
Joined
Mar 17, 2008
Messages
48,623
Location
The CL is a glorified FA Cup set to music
Supports
orderly disembarking on planes
Seems us Yanks can't do a single thing right in global affairs other than hammer European-based companies. (Well, I guess there's Iran.)

Where do you place this on the list of auto-maker scandals? GM's faulty ignition resulting in many deaths...Toyota's acceleration glitch... I'd say on a morality scale it's less (unless you can argue successfully those extra emissions resulted in deaths), but from a financial perspective it may hurt worse.
If someone reaches that far they'll get a bad strain.
 

Sir Matt

Blue Devil
Joined
Jul 22, 2009
Messages
18,332
Location
LUHG
So what happens to those car-owners now? Are they allowed to drive those cars after this scandal?
They'll have some recall on the cars and replace parts on them that will inevitably affect the efficiency and performance of the vehicles but will allow them to comply with the emissions standards. Perhaps they'll get some compensation as well to offset the damages of increased fuel costs.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/us-volkswagen-emissions-plan-idUSKCN0RT0OL20150930
 

Justin

Full Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2004
Messages
27,290
Could we see the collapse of the group? Certainly don't think they will sell in the US again...

Between the fines levied on them from nearly every country that legally can, to the cost of fixing/recalling the cars and the compensation they will have to pay out to owners. They are going to lose a feck tonne of money, and due to loss of consumer confidence they probably see a huge hit on sales.
Their monthly sales increased after the scandal. Doesn't look like consumer confidence will be a problem.
 

mariachi-19

Full Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2008
Messages
18,617
Location
I may be the devil, but i'm not a monster
The only thing it will affect is their diesel products.


But as someone pointed out my impression is the same in that this is the tip of the iceburg. Using a sporting analogy they are to car manufacturing what lance Armstrong is to cycling. They will take the fall for a lot more manufacturers
 

Hal9000

Full Member
Joined
May 24, 2010
Messages
6,318
The only thing it will affect is their diesel products.
Although that's a small amount of car in the grand scheme, that's still 11 million cars.

That's 11 million cars that governments could levy fines against, that's 11 million cars they have to potentially pay compensation for and 11 million cars they have to fix.

In UK they've stop sale of 4000 cars because of this. Thats 4000 cars that they'll either scrap or have to fix.

They probably won't go under, but even if half the people who owns these cars go after them, its a huge chunk of money.
 

mariachi-19

Full Member
Joined
Jul 14, 2008
Messages
18,617
Location
I may be the devil, but i'm not a monster
Although that's a small amount of car in the grand scheme, that's still 11 million cars.

That's 11 million cars that governments could levy fines against, that's 11 million cars they have to potentially pay compensation for and 11 million cars they have to fix.

In UK they've stop sale of 4000 cars because of this. Thats 4000 cars that they'll either scrap or have to fix.

They probably won't go under, but even if half the people who owns these cars go after them, its a huge chunk of money.
Yeah but their brand value for their petrol cars is still subtantially high. The issue is fear and panick of shareholders where as the average joe will still more than likely buy their products if it's the Kind they are looking for.
 

Ducklegs

Part of first caf team to complete Destiny raid
Joined
Jun 17, 2011
Messages
8,761
1 in 7 workers in Germany rely on it. Amazing.
VW is the largest sausage manufacturer in Germany as well.

This could have major repercussions in the sausage world, the after shocks of this scandal could spread to other chopped pork products, pork pies, scotch eggs.

Who knows how far down this rabbit hole goes?
 

Jippy

Sleeps with tramps, bangs jacuzzis, dirty shoes
Staff
Joined
Nov 19, 2009
Messages
57,496
Location
Jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams
VW is the largest sausage manufacturer in Germany as well.

This could have major repercussions in the sausage world, the after shocks of this scandal could spread to other chopped pork products, pork pies, scotch eggs.

Who knows how far down this rabbit hole goes?
Thought you were talking the piss, but found this.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB106850648325722700
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
VW is the largest sausage manufacturer in Germany as well.

This could have major repercussions in the sausage world, the after shocks of this scandal could spread to other chopped pork products, pork pies, scotch eggs.

Who knows how far down this rabbit hole goes?
ssshhhhhhh dont mention the rabbit:nervous:
 

TwoSheds

More sheds (and tiles) than you, probably
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
Messages
13,003
What amazes me is that they thought they could get away with it. Too many people at Bosch and VW must have known about it for it not to leak eventually even if nobody noticed the detuning code itself. And one would have to assume that this should result in criminal prosecution since it is both defrauding the customers and VW's shareholders.
 

Dans

Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
26,980
Location
Oberbayern
Could have had their shares at 99 a couple of days ago. Should have topped up. Currently trading back at over 114 as the new CEO announces things the market likes to hear:

  • All cars to be recalled, all they need is a software update (yeah right)
  • There will be many job losses to cover the costs that this scandal will incur.
It would be great if all those who lose their jobs could sue Winterkorn.
 

senorgregster

Last Newbie Standing
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Messages
10,343
Location
Anywhere but Liverpool
Could have had their shares at 99 a couple of days ago. Should have topped up. Currently trading back at over 114 as the new CEO announces things the market likes to hear:

  • All cars to be recalled, all they need is a software update (yeah right)
  • There will be many job losses to cover the costs that this scandal will incur.
It would be great if all those who lose their jobs could sue Winterkorn.
I was chatting to someone about emissions. Turns out you can drive a high emitting car in my state (Maryland) as long as you pay a fine. My guess is VW will end up paying a lot of fines, around $400 a year per car, I believe.
 

Dans

Correctly predicted Portugal to win Euro 2016
Joined
Jun 4, 2001
Messages
26,980
Location
Oberbayern
Volkswagen - a trabeable share now?

It's trading at over 120 now having been as low as 95 THIS WEEK ALONE!

25% gain on your investment was possible this week. Mental.

No, I didn't.