The point is, let's assume you're right and the study did include meaningless games (which we don't actually know) and that the team that shoots second is under more pressure in a big tournament compared to meaningless game. In that case, the true value of the advantage of going first is even larger than that postulated by the study. So all you're suggesting is that the advantage is more than 60%.I'm slightly confused at the logic here. One of the key points about the statistics is the factor of added pressure due to constantly being behind the team taking the first pens. Yet you're unwilling to accept the factor of difference in pressure related to meaningless friendlies vs big tournaments.