Think this season will be much like Jose's first. I think we'd only lost 3 games deep into the season. We lost a few more at seasons end due to concentrating on the EL. We were pretty much stuck in the same position all season mainly due to continually drawing games. This season it's looking like we will win more games but will also lose more. I think we'll finish between 7th & 10th.
Top Four Race 2018/19
- Thread starter Damien
- Start date
Bournemouth has scored more goals than us in 2018 in the PL, we've scored 40, Bournemouth 41, City on 71. Our GD is +12 currently (that's the same as Chelsea tbf), City on +58
. Our points total (51) is 5 ahead of Chelsea and Arsenal. But 6 behind Liverpool, 10 behind Spurs and 13 behind City. We'd be 4th in the 2018 table, 6 points behind Liverpool in 3rd and 5 ahead of Arsenal, Chelsea. The difference being though that Arsenal and Chelsea both deemed their seasons so bad they sacked and hired new Managers. Doesn't really say much about us, we were getting points last season despite playing shit on a stick football. We're playing the same brand of football and now the points aren't coming.Putting all this into perspective. In the last 20 games we've won by a score margin of 2+ goals three times:
Sep 2, 2018 - Burnley (2-0)
Apr 18, 2018 - Bournemouth (2-0)
Mar 31, 2018 - Swansea (2-0)
I don't know why you are citing Liverpool as untouchable. Spurs have finished above them in eight of the last nine seasons, including the last four seasons.
This is definitely how it looks, atm.
I'm tempted to say we overachieved a bit last year & put the grind on to do so.
It's only taken a couple of things to malfunction a bit (I'd be looking at Lukaku & Matic here I'm afraid) & it's all gone a bit consistently floppy innit?
It's a bit more watchable, mind.
He means from a Top 4 position and I agree. They've stepped up a notch since signing Van Dijk, you can see how much of an effect he's had on their team looking at the results before and after his signing. They've kept 6 clean sheets so far, in 9 games this season. Impressive shit and they haven't really gotten into their attacking groove yet. I see Spurs as untouchable as well tbh. I think your team are so consistent and although you seem a step away from really pushing for the title, you'll make Top 4 fairly easily.
It's the final spot that I think is open for grabs and will be a fight between Arsenal, Chelsea and us at this rate. Although i'm putting us in as standard, it'll take a pretty big change for us to be able to start catching them up.
Last season was quite unusual. We were second for virtually the entire season. But if you look at it, apart from the first two/three months, our form ranged from inconsistent to poor. I remember we scored something like 40% of our goals in the first 7 games or something like that .
The team behind us, apart from Chelsea, fell some points behind early on and never found the consistency to overtake us, even though we were inconsistent ourselves.
Funny enough, we are in sort of the same situation but in reverse. Our needs thisthis se are pretty different imo. Last season, we were the least inconsistent of an inconsistent bunch. This season, we would need proper form to overturn a 7+ deficit and with five teams ahead. Five teams who so far have shown decent capacity to put the smaller sides away. Something that has especially been a struggle for us.
Lets look at this for example. To put ourselves in a very good position for the run of the year, I think we need like 7/8 wins out of the next ten and that's with us not losing the other two or three. Those games include some of our rivals. Does anyone really believe we are going to do that?
Looking back at our previous seasons, has there been any sequence of results in ten games were we have gotten 70%+ points out of 30, under Mourinho?
That's hardly worth anything now
It's like when Carragher at the start of the season was questioning why no one was mentioning Spurs as title challengers it's because Spurs have stood still and Liverpool have improved if you need proof look to your own game against them 4-1 last season but battered by them this year in a 1-2 defeat that was extremely flattering to Spurs
Spurs' consistency will get them top 4 but they wont be anywhere near the title
The only team that I would say is "certain" to finish Top 4 is City (and most probably as champions). Every other contender for the top 4 has some potential issues which could derail them.
Liverpool - need attack to start firing, can't rely on improved defence for another 29 games.
Chelsea - even tho they have loads of great players they seem to rely too much on Hazard.
Arsenal - defence still not adapted to Emery (understandable) will find out more in next few weeks when fixtures are tougher.
Spurs - grinding out results (like LFC) but not quite as convincing as recent seasons. Not buying any new players may turn out to be a big mistake.
Utd - inconsistent, only seem to come to life when they're behind. Playing with more freedom suits Utds players but not their manager.
Extended cup runs could make a difference - with less mid-weeks off. All but Utd and Liverpool could potentially have two league cup semi-finals in January and then Europe starts up again in Feb. As for Utds poor start, this time last year we had 13 points after match week 9 and still finished top 4.
Liverpool - need attack to start firing, can't rely on improved defence for another 29 games.
Chelsea - even tho they have loads of great players they seem to rely too much on Hazard.
Arsenal - defence still not adapted to Emery (understandable) will find out more in next few weeks when fixtures are tougher.
Spurs - grinding out results (like LFC) but not quite as convincing as recent seasons. Not buying any new players may turn out to be a big mistake.
Utd - inconsistent, only seem to come to life when they're behind. Playing with more freedom suits Utds players but not their manager.
Extended cup runs could make a difference - with less mid-weeks off. All but Utd and Liverpool could potentially have two league cup semi-finals in January and then Europe starts up again in Feb. As for Utds poor start, this time last year we had 13 points after match week 9 and still finished top 4.
A number of times yeah. I've put in Citys to reflect how similar we were in Season 1 (16/17). The problem is that City pushed up several gears while we've remained fairly consistent. 70% is 21 points for anyone interested. That's basically 6/7 wins from 10 games. 80% is 24 points, that's something we've only managed 3 times since Jose took charge. City have managed it 38 times.
If Spurs beat City next Monday they go above them.
I don't think they'll be anywhere near the title but that'd be pretty insane given Spurs are making very hard work of their games and seemingly going backwards - to be above City with a quarter of the season gone might be a kick start to their season.
I don't think they'll be anywhere near the title but that'd be pretty insane given Spurs are making very hard work of their games and seemingly going backwards - to be above City with a quarter of the season gone might be a kick start to their season.
All stats indicate that City will win the league, and they most likely will.
Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham will all come top 4, unless VVD, Hazard and Kane gets injured for some time.
Arsenal - It is not that their defense is not adapted to the way Emery wants to play, it is that their CBs are not that good and liable to make mistakes, and their team often gets caught off balance --> Counter attack. Eventhough they won yesterday and in the end had many more chances, they could easily have been under with two goals after 30 minutes. The same has been the case for many matches this season.
Manchester United - Unless some magical thing happens we will not come top 4, and should aim for the EL. The 2nd place last season was a statistical anomaly.
I still think we can finish top 6. We’re only 3 points behind Bournemouth. #believe
I've just noticed Liverpool have only scored 1 more goal than us. Where have all their goals gone?
Thanks, that's very helpful. We'd need to do something we've only done three times consistently in the coming months.A number of times yeah. I've put in Citys to reflect how similar we were in Season 1 (16/17). The problem is that City pushed up several gears while we've remained fairly consistent. 70% is 21 points for anyone interested. That's basically 6/7 wins from 10 games. 80% is 24 points, that's something we've only managed 3 times since Jose took charge. City have managed it 38 times.
True, but all the teams had dropped more points at that stage except City. If you look at the below you had Chelsea and Arsenal on 16 points, only 3 points ahead of you. Granted they had better GD mind.
This season however we're 7 points behind Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea. The big difference between this Season and last is that the entire Top 5 are rarely dropping points. They've all started the season very consistent and the dropped points tend to be against each other. If you remove the matches between the top 5 and check the results against the rest of the league you get the following:
Arsenal:
No Dropped Points
Liverpool:
No Dropped Points
City:
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1:1 Manchester City
Tottenham:
Watford FC 2:1 Tottenham
Chelsea:
West Ham United 0:0 Chelsea
United:
Brighton & Hove Albion 3:2 Manchester United
Manchester United 1:1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
West Ham United 3:1 Manchester United
This won't keep up. All of the top 4 being so close together that is.
Soon as more big games happen and the Champions League really kicks into gear, one or two teams will drop off, points wise. Its still really, really early in the season.
Soon as more big games happen and the Champions League really kicks into gear, one or two teams will drop off, points wise. Its still really, really early in the season.
Aye, I think that's the big thing about us right now. It would take a big shift in our fortune and for the entire club to step up a gear to achieve it. That's not beyond the realms of possibility, but when you look at our form since Jose took over nothing really suggests that can happen. What we need is for the others to suddenly drop their form back below our level to try and catch up again.
We won't finish eighth, ninth or tenth as some people are saying, only team that can challenge for sixth over the course of the season would be Everton, otherwise sixth place is pretty much the very likely finishing position for Manchester United. The top five will gather the largest amount of points ever probably in premier league history, at least eighty for each of them and maybe two end up with ninety would be my prediction. Manchester United end up with low seventies in sixth place. Nine games in and already out of the top four race, let alone a title race. Takes all the enjoyment out of league games when there's nothing to play for with twenty-nine games remaining. Poor season and no Champions League next season for the new manager, unless Valencia overhaul us for second place and United go on to win the Europa League.
@RedSky - Very interesting, great info.
But I need to be an horrific smartarse here, though. If you're looking at games between the Top 5 & the rest - we should include Chelsea dropping points vs. Utd at the weekend.
Top 5 vs. the other 15 is an absolute slaughter-fest atm however.
But I need to be an horrific smartarse here, though. If you're looking at games between the Top 5 & the rest - we should include Chelsea dropping points vs. Utd at the weekend.
Top 5 vs. the other 15 is an absolute slaughter-fest atm however.
Interesting that we're 10 points better off compared to the same stage last season, and that we'd already conceded 16 goals after 9 games compared to the 3 conceded this season.True, but all the teams had dropped more points at that stage except City. If you look at the below you had Chelsea and Arsenal on 16 points, only 3 points ahead of you. Granted they had better GD mind.
This season however we're 7 points behind Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea. The big difference between this Season and last is that the entire Top 5 are rarely dropping points. They've all started the season very consistent and the dropped points tend to be against each other. If you remove the matches between the top 5 and check the results against the rest of the league you get the following:
Arsenal:
No Dropped Points
Liverpool:
No Dropped Points
City:
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1:1 Manchester City
Tottenham:
Watford FC 2:1 Tottenham
Chelsea:
West Ham United 0:0 Chelsea
United:
Brighton & Hove Albion 3:2 Manchester United
Manchester United 1:1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
West Ham United 3:1 Manchester United
City are 6 goals and 2 points worse off...there's hope!
I *think* Top 5 vs. 15 record pans out as:
Pld 34 W 30 D 3 L 1 or close to that, isn't it?
The GD is something like 85-10 after last night's Arsenal game.
I do have it here, but I can't be bothered to count it up again.
Pld 34 W 30 D 3 L 1 or close to that, isn't it?
The GD is something like 85-10 after last night's Arsenal game.
I do have it here, but I can't be bothered to count it up again.
United have exact same points after 9 games as Mourinhos first season. At the moment it's looking like a 5th or 6th finish but things can change. One things for certain if you can go to Chelsea and near as damn it win, then this team is massively under performing especially when going to rubbish teams like West Ham and Brighton.
Well, I took it as a given that we'd get our shit together and try and make a fight of top 4 later in the season. When you talk about the top 6 you'd include us. You horrific smartarse
Van Dijk has made all the difference for you guys. If you look at the games last season he didn't play you conceded 28 in 24 games. When he did play it was 13 in 23 games. I think you finally got rid of Mignolet as a starting keeper around that time as well. It's impressive and depressing all at the same time for us United fans.
True but they're scoring less nowVan Dijk has made all the difference for you guys. If you look at the games last season he didn't play you conceded 28 in 24 games. When he did play it was 13 in 23 games. I think you finally got rid of Mignolet as a starting keeper around that time as well. It's impressive and depressing all at the same time for us United fans.
Shouldn't be depressing, whatever Liverpool are doing is their business. They haven't won a league title for nearly three decades, while United have won thirteen, so swings and roundabouts and all that. However as it stands they are involved in a title race and United are involved in finishing sixth again, just worry about your own team.Van Dijk has made all the difference for you guys. If you look at the games last season he didn't play you conceded 28 in 24 games. When he did play it was 13 in 23 games. I think you finally got rid of Mignolet as a starting keeper around that time as well. It's impressive and depressing all at the same time for us United fans.
That's why its depressing...
and we drew with Newcastle, and the loss to Spurs was pretty comprehensive
but that and what @RedSky said here are IT really
Relative to the 5, you can see the big holes in our sequence of results but it is still quite a small sample of games & the results of ALL the other 5 being as they are is a bit of an extreme situation that you'd expect to change at some point - bans, injuries, fixtures
I think it's a little bit concerning though - you could easily use the evidence such as it is, to say this is looking quite bleak.
How many points do you fancy from the Bournemouth & Everton games? I literally have no idea, but anything less than 4 is already putting us far enough off the pace for it to be a worry that it is not (ever) coming back this season.
Long way to go though,
.Take 10 points from our next 4 games, which is more than possible (draw v City, win the other 3) and then December becomes make or break. Not since 2012/13 have we gone through December in any kind of form. We were awful last season, LVG lost 3 in a row in 2015, Moyes... Moyes'd.
Its an insanely busy month. We play 7 times in the league, almost twice as many times as we play between now and 1/12. We face both Arsenal and Liverpool, but other than those 2, the other 5 are games we should be winning. 21 points up for grabs in one month. How our season goes will be decided there, as it has for the past 5 years when we have crumbled to pieces in that month.
@RedSky on your Van Dijk point, do you think a similar signing might aid our own defensive struggles this season? Liverpool are a very good example of how important defence is. they may have scored less, but have 10 more points and have conceded 13 less goals than at the same stage last season. They have scored one more than us this season, but conceded 13 fewer. If any single team right now demonstrates just how important defence is, its Liverpool.
Its an insanely busy month. We play 7 times in the league, almost twice as many times as we play between now and 1/12. We face both Arsenal and Liverpool, but other than those 2, the other 5 are games we should be winning. 21 points up for grabs in one month. How our season goes will be decided there, as it has for the past 5 years when we have crumbled to pieces in that month.
@RedSky on your Van Dijk point, do you think a similar signing might aid our own defensive struggles this season? Liverpool are a very good example of how important defence is. they may have scored less, but have 10 more points and have conceded 13 less goals than at the same stage last season. They have scored one more than us this season, but conceded 13 fewer. If any single team right now demonstrates just how important defence is, its Liverpool.
They've had seasons where they have finished sixth to ninth as well, so maybe this is United turn. It is what it is, it could be all change next season, or it may stay this way for years to come, who knows.
We have 2 more goals after 9 games compared with last season.
We are out of top 4 ..unless we go on a run like Chelsea did under Conte's first season...
Difference is we did finish second last season which was never the case in any of previous two managers tenure. I do agree with you on the game to game basis at this point. We had a shaky start but clearly the players ares till playing for the manager and there is a good chance we could sting in a string of wins.
The difference is that when Liverpool signed Van Dijk they were scoring goals for fun but making stupid defensive errors. We've certainly got the stupid defensive errors down but we're not a free scoring team. It certainly can't harm our chances but that one signing won't solve our attacking/defensive issues imo. It'll cover up one crack for sure but just expose the other 3/4. I think Liverpools form this season so far is a concern because they've not been playing all that well, when their attacking players get their shit together they're going to push City hard.
What we could do with is everyone else starting to drop points against the rest of the PL a bit more often. Tottenham in particular really should have dropped more points given the amount of away games they've played and yet they've done brilliantly so far. I imagine the next month will shake things up a bit when the CL Group Stages reach critical point. 5 clubs having 20+ points at this stage of the season really is pretty ridiculous.
Yeah buying Alisson was massive for us as well. We've needed a decent keeper for years going back to when Reina started to decline.Van Dijk has made all the difference for you guys. If you look at the games last season he didn't play you conceded 28 in 24 games. When he did play it was 13 in 23 games. I think you finally got rid of Mignolet as a starting keeper around that time as well. It's impressive and depressing all at the same time for us United fans.
I hope Klopp goes back to the CB pairing of Van Dijk and Gomez though because Lovren is on the verge of a big mistake. Red Star and Cardiff at home in the next two should be a good opportunity to get the front three firing again in preparation for Arsenal away.
I get the feeling we'll sign a good defender in the winter that might help us rejuvenate our defense and push for top 4. In the attack Mata playing as #10 was quite interesting and it connected other players better. There is still hope left in me.
That Arsenal game is going to be huge for so many reasons. Really can't wait.
Having someone who wasn't Bailly v Brighton or Jones v Spurs though would have made quite a big difference to our start. We certainly wouldn't be talking about 14 points or being 7 off the top 4. United have always been built on a reliable defence but right now, and for a good 5 years, this is no longer the case. It is where we are weakest. United under Fergie towards the end and Liverpool right now show that even if your midfield is lacking, or your attack is out of sync, having a solid base compensates for this. Even the chap at City only got his team firing properly once he finally settled on his back line, after spending 100s of millions to get it.
Can't see us finishing top 4 unfortunately. I know it's still early in the season but we are too inconsistent and we will continue to drop points against the smaller teams, while Spurs and Arsenal are flat-track bullies so I would expect them to finish ahead of us.
"Lower and mid half teams will take more points off the top 6 than ever before."