Top Four Race 2018/19

[redshaw]

Top 4 I feel will be City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal in that order. We still have a chance and those new managers can falter but we might not be able to even capitalize due to our own ups and downs and lack of goals. It's not really about the points gap right now, we could look back in LVG's or Moyes seasons and say the same thing, "we're only a few points off". We need some big results to offset the awful start

Could be a very traumatic time if we don't get top 4 regarding keeping players and the manager going.

If we miss it this season that would make four times we've failed in six years since 2013. That's diabolical given the money and shows the club is need of serious fixing and not a place for top players.

 

[Adisa]

It's not only the points gap or the fact that two team have to drop off for us to compete.
How many times have we gone on winning runs in the last few years? What evidence do we have that, that history is about to change?

 

[Rajma]

Of course we are in it. I get the feeling some people have never seen a full season of football in their lives...

Start by reading the fixture list for all sides over the next 4 matches. Pay particular attention to our rivals fixtures. Note how they face each other? Points will be dropped by many over the coming weeks.

Mods should look into this account more closely, seems like a scouse wum.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Our priority is picking up points, right now we are chasing the pack, and that includes Spurs but also City. The top 5 are quite closely bunched, so catching one, means catching them all. I don't expect us to challenge for the title of course, but I expect to see the players push as if they are.

Not sure how you think a draw is better for us than a city win regarding top 4 qualification though. Arsenal, Spurs dropping as many points as possible will be more beneficial to that aim. I'd rather be 4 points behind Spurs and 9 behind city than 5 points and 7 behind city. It's a no brainer. Obviously it means nothing unless we win our games. Catching one doesn't mean catching them all either.

 

[Raw]

It's not only the points gap or the fact that two team have to drop off for us to compete.
How many times have we gone on winning runs in the last few years? What evidence do we have that, that history is about to change?

Our biggest winning Premier Leaegue runs since Fergie retired (minimum 4 games):

13/14
4 games (Villa A 3-0, West Ham H 3-1, Hull A 3-2, Norwich A 1-0)

14/15
6 games (Palace H 1-0, Arsenal A 2-1, Hull H 3-0, Stoke H 2-1, Southampton A 2-1, Liverpool H 3-0)
6 games (Sunderland H 2-0, Newcastle A 1-0, Spurs H 3-0, Liverpool A 2-1, Villa H 3-1, City H 4-2)

15/16
n/a

16/17
6 games (Spurs H 1-0, Palace A 2-1, West Brom A 2-0, Sunderland H 3-1, Boro H 2-1, West Ham A 2-0)

17/18
4 games (Newcastle H 4-1, Brighton H 1-0, Watford A 4-2, Arsenal A 3-1)
5 games (Chelsea H 2-1, Palace A 3-2, Liverpool H 2-1, Swansea H 2-0, City A 3-2)

Never anything above 6 games, plus the seasons that we had more than 1 winning run we got top 4. We always seem to have those runs of shit results that derails the season, like the winless December under LVG or the 3 draws in a row last season that gave City a monumental lead.

 

[RedSky]

In our last 20 PL games our GD has been +6 and people really think we'll contest Top 4? We're simply not good enough right now. Bang average in fact.

 

[WensleyMU]

Not sure how you think a draw is better for us than a city win regarding top 4 qualification though. Arsenal, Spurs dropping as many points as possible will be more beneficial to that aim. I'd rather be 4 points behind Spurs and 9 behind city than 5 points and 7 behind city. It's a no brainer. Obviously it means nothing unless we win our games. Catching one doesn't mean catching them all either.

And I would rather be 4/5 points behind both in 3 weeks time.

Mods should look into this account more closely, seems like a scouse wum.

Certainly does, wanting United to pick up points while others face off against each other so United can claw their way back into the mix. All the hallmarks of an undercover Scouse right there.

On a serious not, as I am aware of when the season ends it's unlikely I am a Scouse win, considering the famous Scouse trait of celebrating winning the league in October...

 

[Raw]

In our last 20 PL games our GD has been +6 and people really think we'll contest Top 4? We're simply not good enough right now. Bang average in fact.

Feck me that's dreadful. That's like 6-8th standard.

 

[Mibabalou]

Already feels like I’m grasping at straws for hope of top 4...

We really need wins in our next two before the darby.

 

[PepsiCola]

I think the top 4 is nailed on to finish as it currently is.

 

[Tommy]

I think the top 4 is nailed on to finish as it currently is.

I'm not ruling United out, and I'm most certainly not ruling Spurs out. Calling it nailed on with two points between 5th & 1st is a bit far-fetched for me.

(I do think Spurs have a potential lack of depth that will hurt them, though).

 

[PepsiCola]

I'm not ruling United out, and I'm most certainly not ruling Spurs out. Calling it nailed on with two points between 5th & 1st is a bit far-fetched for me.

(I do think Spurs have a potential lack of depth that will hurt them, though).

Its just a gut feeling.

I don't feel spurs will mount a strong challenge. City, liverpool and chelsea will move away from the rest of the pack. Arsenal beating Spurs to fourth.

 

[mav_9me]

I'm not ruling United out, and I'm most certainly not ruling Spurs out. Calling it nailed on with two points between 5th & 1st is a bit far-fetched for me.

(I do think Spurs have a potential lack of depth that will hurt them, though).

Our goal difference is - 1.

 

[WensleyMU]

In our last 20 PL games our GD has been +6 and people really think we'll contest Top 4? We're simply not good enough right now. Bang average in fact.

Our goal difference is - 1.

Did they recently change the points system in football?

 

[Wayne's World]

And we are gone.......

Our slow start to the season is going to cost us Champions League football next season

 

[RedSky]

Did they recently change the points system in football?

Gives us a clear indication of our form and it's utterly shit. You can dismiss it if you like and cast a blind eye to whats staring all of us right in the face. Just shows how far our standards have dropped in the last few years. We're fecking awful and have been through all of 2018.

 

[WensleyMU]

Gives us a clear indication of our form and it's utterly shit. You can dismiss it if you like and cast a blind eye to whats staring all of us right in the face. Just shows how far our standards have dropped in the last few years. We're fecking awful and have been through all of 2018.

All of 2018? I don't think so, it fell off a cliff after the City game in April sure, but we had done the job by that time. We picked up more points than Liverpool from January 2018 to May, 2 less that Spurs and 4 less than City. So no, it hasn't been awful through all of 2018.

The last few games of last season and the first few of this were, very poor, granted.

 

[AshRK]

Either the board should have sacked jose or should have backed Jose this summer. They did neither a d I had the fear back in July when we were having a shit preseason that we may miss out on top 4 and that's what is happening. Another proof of why our club is run by jokers.

 

[africanspur]

People making cast iron predictions in October and doing so with 3 points separating 1st and 5th

When will people learn that predicting football is a fools game?

 

[bonothom]

United should win the next 2. With City at Spurs, Scousers at Arsenal soon as well then by the time we get to City the gap to top 4 will be 4 or 5 points.

 

[Adisa]

Dont think there's any need to argue even. Top four would require us showing the kind of form we've rarely produced under Mourinho. Don't see why that kind of form will magically appear. We'll see over the next five games.

 

[Kapardin]

If we don't get at least 11-12 points in the next 5 fixtures, forget about top 4.

 

[ErranMorad]

United's only chance of making the CL next season is through winning the Champions league or dropping out to Europa and winning that. No way we are getting a top 4 position from here on. City & Liverpool are the two untouchables, and we are not getting ahead of two of Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal.

 

[ash_86]

i think we'll make top 4. We always seem to do well when we're backed against a wall.

 

[africanspur]

Dont think there's any need to argue even. Top four would require us showing the kind of form we've rarely produced under Mourinho. Don't see why that kind of form will magically appear. We'll see over the next five games.

I can see the cause for negativity but also the case for positivity tbh. I certainly wouldn't be discounting you at all.

Football is incredibly fickle. We started off the season with three wins on the bounce. Then two losses. And then now four wins in a row. The reaction has been incredibly different based. On the results of the last couple of games. Yet the club in crisis one second is the club two points off top in another.

Man utd are only seven points behind and the reality is that none of the teams other than Man City have looked all that convincing so far if I'm honest, despite the points totals. I wouldn't be discounting Man Utd if I was a fan.

As for Tottenham, I feel our lack of squad depth is overplayed a bit. At times this season, we've had Lloris out, Vorm out, Aurier, Vertonghen, Rose, Dembele, Wanyama, Winks, Alli, Eriksen, Lamela, Sissoko, Foyth and Son was at the Asian games.

A pretty substantial list of players and I think we've coped pretty well in the circumstances so far.

 

[ThatsGreat]

United's only chance of making the CL next season is through winning the Champions league or dropping out to Europa and winning that. No way we are getting a top 4 position from here on. City & Liverpool are the two untouchables, and we are not getting ahead of two of Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal.

You'll probably have to compete with those three in the EL as well. And inspite of our league form, winning the EL is still Arsenal's best bet to get into the CL.

 

[AlwaysRed66]

We are seven points from 5th, & our goal difference is 10 worse than the side with the next worst goal difference Spurs. This after nine games, & people keep saying it is only a blip & we can easily get back in the top four. Not with this manager we won't. We may win games, but they will be a struggle, & we will not put sides away with the negative tactics we have. Also regarding Spurs, they have only played three of their games at home.

 

[Adisa]

I can see the cause for negativity but also the case for positivity tbh. I certainly wouldn't be discounting you at all.

Football is incredibly fickle. We started off the season with three wins on the bounce. Then two losses. And then now four wins in a row. The reaction has been incredibly different based. On the results of the last couple of games. Yet the club in crisis one second is the club two points off top in another.

Man utd are only seven points behind and the reality is that none of the teams other than Man City have looked all that convincing so far if I'm honest, despite the points totals. I wouldn't be discounting Man Utd if I was a fan.

As for Tottenham, I feel our lack of squad depth is overplayed a bit. At times this season, we've had Lloris out, Vorm out, Aurier, Vertonghen, Rose, Dembele, Wanyama, Winks, Alli, Eriksen, Lamela, Sissoko, Foyth and Son was at the Asian games.

A pretty substantial list of players and I think we've coped pretty well in the circumstances so far.

My own view is simple. If you can't go on a winning run (something we have shown repeatedly we can't do), you have to depend on the side above you to collapse. In our case we need two sides that are better at us at putting the smaller teams away, to fall away. I can't see it.
This team needs to start showing qualities I have not seen for us to get top four.

 

[charlenefan]

i think we'll make top 4. We always seem to do well when we're backed against a wall.

Moyes and LVG would argue differently. Even in Mourinho's first season we only got UCL due to the Europa League win and I know people will say we prioritised that but IIRC we were always struggling to do it via the league

Right now there's little point anyone wasting their energy moaning about whether we will or will not finish in the top 4, given what's happened at the club since the end of last season all anyone should be focusing on is the next game and hope come May we've done enough. Ignore who's playing who, ignore what game we have 2 weeks from now just go from game to game and hope we build some momentum

 

[charlenefan]

My own view is simple. If you can't go on a winning run (something we have shown repeatedly we can't do), you have to depend on the side above you to collapse. In our case we need two sides that are better at us at putting the smaller teams away, to fall away. I can't see it.
This team needs to start showing qualities I have not seen for us to get top four.

I think you need to stop having such a simple view on things then because we were second for the entire of last season (bar a few weeks being 1st) so they clearly showed the qualities last season

For the record I dont think we'll finish top 4 but that's because this season I think Chelsea will have been better than us but not because of the reason you've said

 

[Treble]

7-8 pts are not a big difference with so many games to play. But given the quality of football under Jose it is almost insurmountable.

 

[esmufc07]

7-8 pts are not a big difference with so many games to play. But given the quality of football under Jose it is almost insurmountable.

Win the next 29 games we win the title.

 

[Treble]

Win the next 29 games we win the title.

Yup, 101 pts must be enough

 

[africanspur]

Yup, 101 pts must be enough

Interestingly, I saw someone link how each club has done compared to the equivalent fixtures last season, both in terms of exact fixture and also gameweek.

For fixtures, Man City have somehow actually managed to be 1 point up already (vs Liverpool I think?). Arsenal 7, Chelsea 5, Spurs 3 and Liverpool 2, with Man Utd -5.

For gameweek, Liverpool are +10, Chelsea and Arsenal +5, Tottenham 1, Man City -2 and Man Utd -6.

A lot of movement still possible though.

 

[Judas]

I think there will be a few twists and turns for top 4, but ultimately we will miss out, we're not good enough, and don't show even close to the amount of consistency that we'd need to make it.

 

[Treble]

Interestingly, I saw someone link how each club has done compared to the equivalent fixtures last season, both in terms of exact fixture and also gameweek.

For fixtures, Man City have somehow actually managed to be 1 point up already (vs Liverpool I think?). Arsenal 7, Chelsea 5, Spurs 3 and Liverpool 2, with Man Utd -5.

For gameweek, Liverpool are +10, Chelsea and Arsenal +5, Tottenham 1, Man City -2 and Man Utd -6.

A lot of movement still possible though.

Think City won't hit 100 pts again but they can go relatively close if necessary. 90+ pts are probable, if they avoid bad injuries to key players.

 

[Botim]

Average number of points required for fourth place (based on the last 20 PL seasons) is 69 points.

So that would mean we need 55 points from the next 29 games, or close to 2 pts/game on average. Or, put even more simply: win two games for every one we lose.

Not easy, but certainly not impossible. Main issue at the moment is our dreadful goal difference and the fact that none of the middle of the pack teams seem to be able to beat the big boys this year (except for us, obviously), which means we'll have to beat our direct rivals to stand a chance.

 

[sunama]

Win the next 29 games we win the title.

esmufc07, I believe you have uncovered a brilliant and cunning plan.

 

[charlenefan]

Interestingly, I saw someone link how each club has done compared to the equivalent fixtures last season, both in terms of exact fixture and also gameweek.

For fixtures, Man City have somehow actually managed to be 1 point up already (vs Liverpool I think?). Arsenal 7, Chelsea 5, Spurs 3 and Liverpool 2, with Man Utd -5.

For gameweek, Liverpool are +10, Chelsea and Arsenal +5, Tottenham 1, Man City -2 and Man Utd -6.

A lot of movement still possible though.

We're -2 on the equivalent fixtures last season, ironically the Spurs game being the one that's put us in the negative

Leicester (h) 2-0 / 2-1 / N/A
Brighton (a) 1-0 / 3-2 / N/A
Spurs (h) 1-0 / 0-3 / -3 diff
Burnley (a) 0-1 / 0-2 / N/A
Watford (a) 2-4 / 1-2 / N/A
Wolves (h) 0-1 / 1-1 / +1 diff (using West Brom as an equivalent fixture)
West Ham (a) 0-0 / 3-1 / -1 diff
Newcastle (h) 4-1 / 3-2 / N/A
Chelsea (a) 1-0 / 1-1 / +1 diff

Gameweek I expect we are way down given how good our start was last season

One problem with the above though is that we're about to go into a run of fixtures which we all won last season Everton (h), Bournemouth (a), City (a), Palace (h), Southampton (a), Arsenal (h), Fulham (h) (using lets saw Swansea at home as an equivalent) and right now it's impossible to say whether we've turned a corner or not but the likelihood is that we'll fall further behind the points we amassed from the same games last season.

 

[Treble]

Average number of points required for fourth place (based on the last 20 PL seasons) is 69 points.

So that would mean we need 55 points from the next 29 games, or close to 2 pts/game on average. Or, put even more simply: win two games for every one we lose.

Not easy, but certainly not impossible. Main issue at the moment is our dreadful goal difference and the fact that none of the middle of the pack teams seem to be able to beat the big boys this year (except for us, obviously), which means we'll have to beat our direct rivals to stand a chance.

69 pts won't be enough.

Last 2 seasons with the emergence of the top 6:

16/17 Liverpool 76
17/18 Liverpool 75

The gap between the top 6 and the rest is big and the former win a lot of points these days.