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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

JPRouve

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Tend to agree its hard to see all the eventual outcomes but certainly Id say the probability of leaving on March 29th with no deal would be higher than any of the other permutations... and to be honest if Mays deal gets voted down I think at that point all businesses and government departments etc have to switch to full on prepare to leave with no deal mode - which in its self will tae so much effort - quote possibly with a general election in the background that it will be really hard if not impossible to stop - unless the EU throw a lifeline of offering to extend A50 - but again elections, quitaly etc Im not sure I see them doing that.

It was always going to be hard to find a deal that united people behind it - but it seems we have found a position that almost nobody supports ...
And this is the main reason why EU members might not agree to an extension, there is still a pretty big uncertainty within the UK regarding what Brexit means and EU members will most likely choose stability over anything else.
 

sun_tzu

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And this is the main reason why EU members might not agree to an extension, there is still a pretty big uncertainty within the UK regarding what Brexit means and EU members will most likely choose stability over anything else.
yes - If I were on the EU side of the negotiation Id probably think let them go - they can reapply in a few years when they are prepared to come in with no veto and taking the euro

As I say I dread to think what an uncooperative bunch of MEP's we would elect in the EU referendum if we did choose to stay but i suspect the EU wouldn't fancy working with them

I still think no deal on 29th March is most probable

Europe must be totally fed up with our incompetence by now and cant wait to see the back of us
 

Paul the Wolf

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And this is the main reason why EU members might not agree to an extension, there is still a pretty big uncertainty within the UK regarding what Brexit means and EU members will most likely choose stability over anything else.
Agreed.

Regarding the EU elections in May, I believe candidates have to present their candidature in France between 21st April and 2nd May 2019. I presume similar dates would be applicable to other EU countries.
This alone does not leave much time to extend A50.
 

JPRouve

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yes - If I were on the EU side of the negotiation Id probably think let them go - they can reapply in a few years when they are prepared to come in with no veto and taking the euro

As I say I dread to think what an uncooperative bunch of MEP's we would elect in the EU referendum if we did choose to stay but i suspect the EU wouldn't fancy working with them

I still think no deal on 29th March is most probable

Europe must be totally fed up with our incompetence by now and cant wait to see the back of us
I was actually thinking about your last sentence. I don't think anyone has an issue with the UK or Brexit, but your main politicians are probably on a blacklist, they used the EU membership to gain/maintain power at a national level, then they triggered A50 without having an idea or an agreement about the type of withdrawal they wanted, now after two years some are thinking about cancelling it or extend the withdrawal period and they still don't have a clue about what Brexit means and what they want.

If EU members refuse to extend it or negotiate, it will be because there is no point wasting time with people that don't have a plan or even common sense. I don't think anyone will actually try to look tough on the UK but your politicians are making the all process pointless and probably fruitless too.
 

sun_tzu

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I was actually thinking about your last sentence. I don't think anyone has an issue with the UK or Brexit, but your main politicians are probably on a blacklist, they used the EU membership to gain/maintain power at a national level, then they triggered A50 without having an idea or an agreement about the type of withdrawal they wanted, now after two years some are thinking about cancelling it or extend the withdrawal period and they still don't have a clue about what Brexit means and what they want.

If EU members refuse to extend it or negotiate, it will be because there is no point wasting time with people that don't have a plan or even common sense. I don't think anyone will actually try to look tough on the UK but your politicians are making the all process pointless and probably fruitless too.
what would be the theoretical timetable for extending - I'm guessing its not a few phone calls and a group email - there would have to be legislation etc - whats a realistic time-frame - id guess not too long after they agree the deal this weekend?
 

Infra-red

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I was actually thinking about your last sentence. I don't think anyone has an issue with the UK or Brexit, but your main politicians are probably on a blacklist, they used the EU membership to gain/maintain power at a national level, then they triggered A50 without having an idea or an agreement about the type of withdrawal they wanted, now after two years some are thinking about cancelling it or extend the withdrawal period and they still don't have a clue about what Brexit means and what they want.

If EU members refuse to extend it or negotiate, it will be because there is no point wasting time with people that don't have a plan or even common sense. I don't think anyone will actually try to look tough on the UK but your politicians are making the all process pointless and probably fruitless too.
They definitely won't extend A50 for some arbitrary further negotiation. It would only be for a referendum on remain.

No argument from me on the rest of it. We are lumbered with one of our worst ever generations of politicians, at a time when we needed some of the best.
 

JPRouve

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what would be the theoretical timetable for extending - I'm guessing its not a few phone calls and a group email - there would have to be legislation etc - whats a realistic time-frame - id guess not too long after they agree the deal this weekend?
I really don't know. I guess that if there is a withdrawal agreement and the UK accept a no deal if Leave wins, then an extension would be easy and quick, probably less than a month. I assume that an extension will only happen if there is a definitive answer at the end, so the referendum needs to create a finality.
 

JPRouve

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:lol::lol:

Oh god we could be sooooooo fecked.
I think that she is just not good at communicating. Surely you are not planning to use the army for any sort of emergency relief related to Brexit?
 

Sweet Square

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I think that she is just not good at communicating. Surely you are not planning to use the army for any sort of emergency relief related to Brexit?
It could all be bollocks but it's been reported before

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...military-police-leaked-document-a8529401.html

A no-deal Brexit could lead to the “real possibility” of police calling on the military to help with civil disorder, a leaked document claims.

Contingency plans are being drawn up by police chiefs if there is chaos on the streets due to shortages of goods, food and medicine,

The document prepared by the National Police Co-ordination Centre (NPoCC) warns of traffic queues at ports with “unprecedented and overwhelming” disruption to the road network.

The document, set to be considered by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) later this month, also sets out concerns of increased data costs, loss of warrant cards and queues at ports and docks around the country.

Shadow police minister Louise Haigh lashed out at the Government’s handling of the situation.

“This is the nightmare scenario long feared; according to the UK’s most senior police officers a no-deal Brexit could leave Britain on the brink,” she said. “There is not a corner of this country that will not suffer if the govt ploughs ahead with no deal,” she added in a tweet.


army-on-standby-to-handle-food-and-medicines-shortages-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit-11453093

The army is on standby to help deliver food, medicines and fuels if there are shortages in the wake of a "no deal" Brexit, it has been reported.

Plans for the armed forces to help civilian authorities in the event of civil emergencies have been dusted off as part of contingency preparations for Britain leaving the EU without an agreement, according to the Sunday Times.

This would see helicopters and army trucks being used to get supplies to vulnerable people outside the South East who were having difficulties getting the medicines they require, according to the newspaper.


An unnamed minister told the Sunday Times that the military would be drafted in if problems at Britain's ports caused shortages of food, fuel and medicines.

They said: "There is a lot of civil contingency planning around the prospect of no deal. That's not frightening the horses, that's just being utterly realistic."

A Ministry of Defence source said there had been "no formal request" to supply aid, but acknowledged there is a "blueprint for us supporting the civilian authorities that can be dusted off".
 

MoskvaRed

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I think that she is just not good at communicating. Surely you are not planning to use the army for any sort of emergency relief related to Brexit?
Probably not but the very idea that it is being discussed shows the absurdity of Brexit. This is the sort of measure normally used in the aftermath of a natural disaster or war.
 

JPRouve

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Probably not but the very idea that it is being discussed shows the absurdity of Brexit. This is the sort of measure normally used in the aftermath of a natural disaster or war.
That's why I'm surprised, this should be the sign that Brexit isn't a good idea for the UK. It feels like someone calling the ambulance before attempting to cross the highway.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I think that she is just not good at communicating. Surely you are not planning to use the army for any sort of emergency relief related to Brexit?
If you think the last two and half years have been insane in the UK, at least it will have prepared you for what happens in the next two and half years if the UK leaves with no agreement.
 

Mozza

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You said yes to me paying more. My point is that there comes a point when you destroy aspiration. People that open businesses often risk a lot in the early days. They also stand to lose more if it fails. That is not to diminish the hardship that is generally felt by the employees. But there should be a differential in rewards that recognises those risks. If that differential is eroded then the incentive to take the risk and start a business in the first place diminishes.

But if like, Red Silva up there you are a fan of the workers owning the means of production then fine - but be happy with your commune and don't try and compete with other countries because you will lose.
I doubt many people who start a business are thinking about what they'll be taxed if they eventually earn above 80,000. In fact that is such a far off and fantastical sum that the fact that they could earn 80,000 would be motivation enough. We had tax rates way higher than this in the post war years, do you think no businesses were started then?
 

Pexbo

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This makes my blood boil. If she’s blocking a criminal investigation for political gains she should be held up in front of our highest court and tried for obstruction of justice.

Words cannot describe how much I despise these odious creatures. They’re in their own fecking career bubble with zero concern for the nations interests.
 

Classical Mechanic

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I think that she is just not good at communicating. Surely you are not planning to use the army for any sort of emergency relief related to Brexit?
If there are major blockages because of customs checks at borders and medicines are held up by that, then army/RAF personnel and army/RAF aviation vehicles would be the best way of moving them I would have thought
 

711

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Just reinforces my point then! :-)

Are we sixth at least?
As Spanner says we chop and change with France but India is right up both arses with a much higher growth rate. I personally believe in paying tax for public services, and I'm willing to pay more myself, not just say someone else should. The size of the economy is a crap metric though, GDP per capita would be better.
 

Drainy

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If there is a second referendum it should be:

A) Remain a member of the European Union, lets pretend this nightmare didn't happen
B) I don't have a fecking clue. This is a parliamentary democracy do what you think is in my best interest like I fecking pay you for
C) Leave under the terms of the agreed deal, staying would be too embarrassing
D) Leave without a deal, I don't have a job anyway
 

sun_tzu

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If there is a second referendum it should be:

A) Remain a member of the European Union, lets pretend this nightmare didn't happen
B) I don't have a fecking clue. This is a parliamentary democracy do what you think is in my best interest like I fecking pay you for
C) Leave under the terms of the agreed deal, staying would be too embarrassing
D) Leave without a deal, I don't have a job anyway
E)boue
 

Drainy

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Who can blame politicians for not bothering with knowing things when the people vote on what they want to believe anyway. As long as you manage to leave before you have the actual responsibility to see it through and you don't suffer the political consequences beyond the few nerds who pay attention.

Just don't go against the Brexit hive mind.