Who better to inspire confidence in a challenging time than the bloke who legged it at the first chance during the last challenging time?Tweet
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This could take bloody ages, given half the party seems to be putting themselves forward.Handy little quick guide to how to elect another tory wastrel taken from the Sunday Telegraph -
In brief | How Conservative leaders are selected
The process is instigated by either the incumbent resigning or the Parliamentary Party passing a vote of no confidence.
Such a vote is automatically triggered if the 1922 Committee receives demands for new leadership carrying the
signatures of 15 per cent of Conservative MPs (currently 48).
The Conservative Party then uses a twofold system to select a new leader:
The Conservative Chief Whip (currently Julian Smith) receives nominations from party members.
- If just one MP is nominated, they are automatically installed as party leader.
- If multiple names are put forward, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held. The lowest-polling name is removed and another ballot is held. This continues on subsequent Tuesdays and Thursdays until just two nominees remain.
- These two nominees are then put to a ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership, with the winner becoming the new Conservative leader.
Baker will get probably 40 or so votes from the erg... Though ultimately they will switch to Johnson or raab depending who promices the hardest brexit... Probably JohnsonSo apparently current numbers of confirmed backers are:
Gove - 18
Raab - 16
Johnson - 14
Hunt - 13
Javid - 8
Hancock - 6
Mcvey - 5
Other - 7
Yes... Though it is likley we will get say 10 candidates I suspect a lot would drop out around 2nd or 3rd round when it was clear they couldn't win but could still trade their support for a key roleThis could take bloody ages, given half the party seems to be putting themselves forward.
I just hope it goes to the members. Pushes the party further to the right and off a cliff.Tories going to tear themselves apart. Popcorn at the ready.
I do wonder if Boris does not win if he might not bubmle off in a huff and join up with farrageTories going to tear themselves apart. Popcorn at the ready.
I don't think they are in a particular hurry.This could take bloody ages, given half the party seems to be putting themselves forward.
You realise this person's gonna be PM, and we don't have to have another GE for another three years, right?I just hope it goes to the members. Pushes the party further to the right and off a cliff.
If the Tories can't get no deal through parliament or crash us out of the EU with no deal, wouldn't this make a GE very likely sooner?You realise this person's gonna be PM, and we don't have to have another GE for another three years, right?
Maybe? But the US has made me very wary of wanting severely right wing people to win just because they seem easier to beat in an election, particularly if it's reliant on Tory MPs and the DUP to bring that election about.If the Tories can't get no deal through parliament or crash us out of the EU with no deal, wouldn't this make a GE very likely sooner?
Can't see that happening , the second part anyway .Two big egos together what could go wrong.I do wonder if Boris does not win if he might not bubmle off in a huff and join up with farrage
Won't happen. Boris a remainer at heart and has used Brexit as a way to advance his career to no. 10. As horrible as the man is, I don't get the impression he dislikes people based upon the colour of their skin.I do wonder if Boris does not win if he might not bubmle off in a huff and join up with farrage
"Colonialism 'the best fate for Africa'
"Papua New Guinea 'cannibalism'
‘Part-Kenyan’ Obama"
"Picanninnies and ‘watermelon smiles’
"Muslim women ‘letter boxes’
Tbf it does seem like some of the less limely candidates, eg Williamson, are now backing others rather than staking their own claim.Yes... Though it is likley we will get say 10 candidates I suspect a lot would drop out around 2nd or 3rd round when it was clear they couldn't win but could still trade their support for a key role
I'd be surprised if it took more than a couple of weeks in total t(to get to a final two) though in theory it could easily drag out for a couple of months
There is also a possibility let's say the last 3 are raab gove and Johnson that if Johnson gets to the final two the other one would withdraw for the sake of party unity (i.e. they know they would get smashed in a ballot of members) but gove and raab would of course be more than happy to go against each other (as they think they can win)... It's all about the tactical voting of the ABB brigade (Anyone But Boris) and if they can keep him from the final two
And us with it, come 31 October.I just hope it goes to the members. Pushes the party further to the right and off a cliff.
That's the fear. Clock runs down, no deal by default and people genuinely think Boris or Raab have the brains to find a way through it.I don't think they are in a particular hurry.
A strong Opposition Leader would make mincemeat of Johnson, Gove, Raab or Hammond. First two are liars and bumblers, the second two are pure bodgers. Johnson does his homework on nothing and like Trump has attention deficit disorder and can't remember what he had for dinner the day before.That's the fear. Clock runs down, no deal by default and people genuinely think Boris or Raab have the brains to find a way through it.
Yes... Equally a New pm very often gets a boost in the polls... Chuck in the calls for indy ref2... Brexit party... Labour actually having to make up a brexit policy and potentially libs ***** and greens Forming a remain alliance though and with that much uncertainty you might see them trying to hold together the coalition with the dup? ... Not sure if that will be viable or not to be honestIf the Tories can't get no deal through parliament or crash us out of the EU with no deal, wouldn't this make a GE very likely sooner?
When push comes to shove and it looks like going against Boris might actually remove the party from power they will probably cave. See someone like Mundell in Scotland who casually threatens resignation every time the party does something anti-Scotland while ultimately never actually standing down. Or Davidson who threatened back in the day to separate from the UK branch if Boris ever got him but who will, again, cave when push comes to shove.Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
Yup. Ditto Rudd and her "One Nation" group. Sandwiched between Corbyn and Farage, they'll take the devil they know every time.When push comes to shove and it looks like going against Boris might actually remove the party from power they will probably cave. See someone like Mundell in Scotland who casually threatens resignation every time the party does something anti-Scotland while ultimately never actually standing down. Or Davidson who threatened back in the day to separate from the UK branch if Boris ever got him but who will, again, cave when push comes to shove.
A Tory voting to bring down a Tory government and risking a Socialist?Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
Probably the case for most of them aye as there's little backbone in politics but i do think you'll see some go Change UK and some just independent until a new leader takes over.When push comes to shove and it looks like going against Boris might actually remove the party from power they will probably cave. See someone like Mundell in Scotland who casually threatens resignation every time the party does something anti-Scotland while ultimately never actually standing down. Or Davidson who threatened back in the day to separate from the UK branch if Boris ever got him but who will, again, cave when push comes to shove.
I know their situation is bleaker now but just look at 2016. It was assumed the party were in disarray after tearing themselves after over the referendum. Within weeks they'd all united behind May while Labour spent the rest of the summer tearing themselves apart. Remainers accepted Brexit had to happen and Brexiteers decided she was a decent vehicle from that.Yup. Ditto Rudd and her "One Nation" group. Sandwiched between Corbyn and Farage, they'll take the devil they know every time.
Parliament is in recess from July isn't it... So any voc needs to be by then... And the leadership contest might not even be finished by thenHammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.
It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week
The other three are all shite. I only mentioned Hammond cos he's no interest in running for PM, knows whoever wins will sack him, so by all accounts he is just trying to scupper Johnson and Raab by highlighting how economically disastrous both will be.A strong Opposition Leader would make mincemeat of Johnson, Gove, Raab or Hammond. First two are liars and bumblers, the second two are pure bodgers. Johnson does his homework on nothing and like Trump has attention deficit disorder and can't remember what he had for dinner the day before.
But we don't have a strong Opposition Leader.
I keep getting Hammond mixed up with Hunt. Both Weasels.The other three are all shite. I only mentioned Hammond cos he's no interest in running for PM, knows whoever wins will sack him, so by all accounts he is just trying to scupper Johnson and Raab by highlighting how economically disastrous both will be.
I stand corrected.Course he doesn't
I don't mind Hammond, but with the giant caveat that it's relative to the rest of that front bench. At least he is realistic about what no deal means.I keep getting Hammond mixed up with Hunt. Both Weasels.
14 for Jeremy Hunt. How do these people function.Publicly declared MP backers so far...
It might be possible to keep Boris out of the final two at this rate... Raab Vs gove is pretty uninspiring stuff though
Dominic Raab 20
Michael Gove 19
Boris Johnson 15
Jeremy Hunt 14
Sajid Javid 8
Matt Hancock 6
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 3
Andrea Leadsom 2
Corporal Jones from Dad's Army.Who is the best / most likely remain leaning candidate for the Tories?
I'm not so sure. I'd agree if they had a similar selection process as Labour, but I think the majority of MPs who aren't supporting Raab, Johnson, Mcvey etc will be voting against them at pretty much all costs.Boris will win it easily I think. The tories will be trying to miraculously come back from the dead. Boris will either achieve it for them, or will sink them without trace.
All the others have no chance of saving the party at the next election.
He's well respected in political circles in truth. He's also justifiably regarded as one of (if not the) most intelligent people in politics.14 for Jeremy Hunt. How do these people function.
The tory MPs will now be considering what is more important for them personally right now. EU membership or being wiped out and jobless?I'm not so sure. I'd agree if they had a similar selection process as Labour, but I think the majority of MPs who aren't supporting Raab, Johnson, Mcvey etc will be voting against them at pretty much all costs.
I can see the majority of remain MPs backing Hunt and the majority of moderate leave or remain but "respecting the result" voting for Gove.
I can't instantly see Johnson or Raab getting the support of 107 MPs (even after one is knocked out). It's why I think Gove is a good bet at 6/1 as if it were him against Hunt he'd win comfortably.