Westminster Politics

[Walrus]

IndyRef 2 is an interesting one. One the one hand it is completely undeniable that Scotland voted overwhelmingly to Remain, and that remaining in the EU was one of the big driving factors for voting to stay in the UK the first time around.

On the other hand, it was always described as a "once in a generation vote" and not something to be revisited. And crucially, if the idea of a second referendum for the Scots was entertained, it sets a pretty major precedent and argument in favour of a second Brexit vote (which ironically might defeat the need for IndyRef 2 in the first place, if remain won).

 

[Mr Pigeon]

IndyRef 2 is an interesting one. One the one hand it is completely undeniable that Scotland voted overwhelmingly to Remain, and that remaining in the EU was one of the big driving factors for voting to stay in the UK the first time around.

On the other hand, it was always described as a "once in a generation vote" and not something to be revisited. And crucially, if the idea of a second referendum for the Scots was entertained, it sets a pretty major precedent and argument in favour of a second Brexit vote (which ironically might defeat the need for IndyRef 2 in the first place, if remain won).

I suppose it's because the Scottish people were fed lie after lie. "We're all in this together", "you won't be forgotten" etc. Weeks after the referendum organisations such as the Beeb and then Westminster went back to treating Scotland like an annoying cousin and England decided to say "nah feck being in Europe, and all you cnuts are fecking off with us".

As far as I'm concerned the need for a new referendum right now can't be denied. This isn't five or ten years down the line, all of this chopping and changing has happened in about 24 months. If it makes other people in other parts of the UK stand up and demand answers from their elected officials then more power to them as well.

 

[711]

I suppose it's because the Scottish people were fed lie after lie. "We're all in this together", "you won't be forgotten" etc. Weeks after the referendum organisations such as the Beeb and then Westminster went back to treating Scotland like an annoying cousin and England decided to say "nah feck being in Europe, and all you cnuts are fecking off with us".

As far as I'm concerned the need for a new referendum right now can't be denied. This isn't five or ten years down the line, all of this chopping and changing has happened in about 24 months. If it makes other people in other parts of the UK stand up and demand answers from their elected officials then more power to them as well.

The SNP want one by 2021 I think, so two years minimum by the looks of it. Of course if Scotland fecked off (I'm part Scots, I would) it might mathematically tip the balance to the rest of the UK definitely being Leave, but heh, be careful what you wish for and all that.

 

[Kentonio]

The SNP want one by 2021 I think, so two years minimum by the looks of it. Of course if Scotland fecked off (I'm part Scots, I would) it might mathematically tip the balance to the rest of the UK definitely being Leave, but heh, be careful what you wish for and all that.

I'm sure many of us can find some Scottish roots to get a passport if that happens.

 

[711]

I'm sure many of us can find some Scottish roots to get a passport if that happens.

Yeah, I would. Interestingly though, in their independence referendum they allowed all residents of Scotland to vote, but not Scots living elsewhere, which makes me think that although they welcome immigrants they might not give passports to anyone not actually resident. Wouldn't blame them if so.

 

[Cheesy]

IndyRef 2 is an interesting one. One the one hand it is completely undeniable that Scotland voted overwhelmingly to Remain, and that remaining in the EU was one of the big driving factors for voting to stay in the UK the first time around.

On the other hand, it was always described as a "once in a generation vote" and not something to be revisited. And crucially, if the idea of a second referendum for the Scots was entertained, it sets a pretty major precedent and argument in favour of a second Brexit vote (which ironically might defeat the need for IndyRef 2 in the first place, if remain won).

This is something that gets referenced a lot but it's not something that was ever really set down officially or anything - it was mostly said casually as a way to impart the importance of the referendum on people. Even if that's dishonest, doing a u-turn on that and wanting a second referendum isn't really all that more deceiving than a ton of other policies or ideals the big two parties have backed/not backed and then changed your mind on. And that's before you even consider the implications of Brexit. It's not just that we voted Remain - it's the fact that in 2014 one of the most significant pulls of a No vote - in the eyes of the campaign itself - was that voting against independence would secure EU membership.

Now you have Lib Dems up here like Swinson simultaneously advocating a second Brexit referendum while simultaneously sneering at the idea of another independence vote.

 

[Kentonio]

Yeah, I would. Interestingly though, in their independence referendum they allowed all residents of Scotland to vote, but not Scots living elsewhere, which makes me think that although they welcome immigrants they might not give passports to anyone not actually resident. Wouldn't blame them if so.

Can’t see that happening for a second. No chance they’d tell people who had been Scottish for generations that they couldn’t have a passport because they’d moved to London or whatever. Much more likely they’d deal with it like the Irish did.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

This is something that gets referenced a lot but it's not something that was ever really set down officially or anything - it was mostly said casually as a way to impart the importance of the referendum on people. Even if that's dishonest, doing a u-turn on that and wanting a second referendum isn't really all that more deceiving than a ton of other policies or ideals the big two parties have backed/not backed and then changed your mind on. And that's before you even consider the implications of Brexit. It's not just that we voted Remain - it's the fact that in 2014 one of the most significant pulls of a No vote - in the eyes of the campaign itself - was that voting against independence would secure EU membership.

Now you have Lib Dems up here like Swinson simultaneously advocating a second Brexit referendum while simultaneously sneering at the idea of another independence vote.

Unless you go on TV as first minister and repeat it over and over as the official position of the majority party at which point its going to be seen as you know official.

No it wasn't said casually either, it was the stock answer to the question will you ever stop asking for a referendum. IE if you lose are just going to come back and keep asking until you get the answer you want. And here we are again.

It is not as dishonest as the independence budget the SNP put forward or the expectation of significant concessions from the UK after a leave vote and we know a little more about how that goes now. Nor was it as big a lie as the one on currency. Yet is was a blatant lie and one you are excusing because they all do it?

Brexit, Peoples vote, Indyref and Indyref 2, its making hypocrites of us all.

 

[Adisa]

Conservatism is fundamentally evil.

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[Mr Pigeon]

Conversatism is fundamentally evil.

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He says people should look around because he doesn't see any poverty in this country. If we were to live in the same Westminster bubble as him then we wouldn't know it exists either. This is the fundamental problem with the elite making all of the decisions.

 

[sun_tzu]

Conversatism is fundamentally evil.

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Millions... As in at least 2 million people... From a population of around 65 million

That's 3% of people

And dire poverty... That for sure sounds like an absolute rather than a relative term to me and would relate to extreme poverty... No roof no food no income etc

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/dire

Certainly it is true that substantially under 3% of UK population could be classified in this way

Even when looking at purchasing power parity it's far under that

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentage_of_population_living_in_poverty

In essence he is technically correct in his statement but it's a fecking awful soundbite and rank amature to say something like that as it is incredibly dismissive of the poverty that does exist

Meh he's gone anyway as soon as there is a new pm

 

[Mogget]

Millions... As in at least 2 million people... From a population of around 65 million

That's 3% of people

And dire poverty... That for sure sounds like an absolute rather than a relative term to me and would relate to extreme poverty... No roof no food no income etc

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/dire

Certainly it is true that substantially under 3% of UK population could be classified in this way

Even when looking at purchasing power parity it's far under that

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentage_of_population_living_in_poverty

In essence he is technically correct in his statement but it's a fecking awful soundbite and rank amature to say something like that as it is incredibly dismissive of the poverty that does exist

Meh he's gone anyway as soon as there is a new pm

You're an absolute joke

This coming from the poster who criticises Corbyn if he breathes wrong.

 

[Drifter]

Conversatism is fundamentally evil.

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This is conservatism .Always sceptical of the poor or living in complete denial.

 

[sun_tzu]

You're an absolute joke

This coming from the poster who criticises Corbyn if he breathes wrong.

I'm not sure I can think of a right way for Corbyn to breathe ... Trot on dear boy

 

[Smores]

Millions... As in at least 2 million people... From a population of around 65 million

That's 3% of people

And dire poverty... That for sure sounds like an absolute rather than a relative term to me and would relate to extreme poverty... No roof no food no income etc

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/dire

Certainly it is true that substantially under 3% of UK population could be classified in this way

Even when looking at purchasing power parity it's far under that

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentage_of_population_living_in_poverty

In essence he is technically correct in his statement but it's a fecking awful soundbite and rank amature to say something like that as it is incredibly dismissive of the poverty that does exist

Meh he's gone anyway as soon as there is a new pm

He's correct in his statement because you did a google search on the word dire?

The report that he's being questioned on doesn't use that term and neither is it an official term used by our government or the UN.

He was asked about poverty and then decided to escalate it to disprove it because he couldn't answer the original question.

It's like answering that we're not all underwater when asked about climate change measures.

 

[sun_tzu]

He was asked about poverty and then decided to escalate it to disprove it because he couldn't answer the original question.
.

Woah.... back up there.... like your telling me a politician didn't answer a question directly and actually spun an answer that chimed better with their own agenda.... like for realz... omg... mind blown

This could be a dangerous trend.... where could it end... lies painted on the sides of busses...

He (badly) span an answer.... the answer he gave was truthful in that reference frame... basically he did his job (not very well mind) but who cares as he's gone in a few weeks anyway

 

[Silva]

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[Raulduke]

Trump chucking a hand grenade into the Tory leadership contest.

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[Ady87]

Is this the best thread to discuss the Peterborough by-election result?

 

[SalfordRed18]

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Hilariously out of touch with reality.

 

[Ubik]

Close result apparently, (at least according to the party bods who are also engaging in massive expectations management) if it's a recount probably won't find out tonight.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Imagine if Brexit win?

Isn't it kind of how Nazi Germany started?

 

[Raulduke]

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[Fergies Gum]

What a coward Farage is. He has sneaked into the building via the back door and is refusing to come out to speak to the media.

 

[Raulduke]

Rumours now circulating that Labour have won but that the Brexit Party are requesting a recount.

Edit:

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[Infra-red]

Labour wins by 683 votes.

Peterborough result:
LAB: 30.9% (-17.2)
BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)
CON: 21.4% (-25.5)
LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)
GRN: 3.1% (+1.3)
UKIP: 1.2% (+1.2)

 

[berbatrick]

Labour wins by 683 votes.

Peterborough result:
LAB: 30.9% (-17.2)
BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)
CON: 21.4% (-25.5)
LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)
GRN: 3.1% (+1.3)
UKIP: 1.2% (+1.2)

Was it a leave constituency?

 

[Adisa]

Was it a leave constituency?

Yes.

 

[berbatrick]

Yes.

Thanks.

Kindof relevant, I just checked and turnout was ~33k, compared to ~48k in 2017.

 

[Cheesy]

Thanks.

Kindof relevant, I just checked and turnout was ~33k, compared to ~48k in 2017.

By-elections always have lower turnout than a general election though, apparently the total voting actually wasn't too bad. Quite disappointing for the Brexit mob, really the sort of seat they should've been taking if they hope to capitalise on their recent boost. But then only in that position due to the failings of the big two.

 

[berbatrick]

By-elections always have lower turnout than a general election though, apparently the total voting actually wasn't too bad. Quite disappointing for the Brexit mob, really the sort of seat they should've been taking if they hope to capitalise on their recent boost. But then only in that position due to the failings of the big two.

I think every bit that turnout is higher, it harms the Brexit party (which seems to have a mostly older and so more likely to turn out base)

 

[Brwned]

Woah.... back up there.... like your telling me a politician didn't answer a question directly and actually spun an answer that chimed better with their own agenda.... like for realz... omg... mind blown

This could be a dangerous trend.... where could it end... lies painted on the sides of busses...

He (badly) span an answer.... the answer he gave was truthful in that reference frame... basically he did his job (not very well mind) but who cares as he's gone in a few weeks anyway

He didn't spin the answer and put it in his own frame. He explicitly said he rejects the report, which states that 14m live in poverty and provides a definition of that.

 

[Abizzz]

I think every bit that turnout is higher, it harms the Brexit party (which seems to have a mostly older and so more likely to turn out base)

That is the common assumption but I'm growing weary of it. The people who vote Brexit/Extremists usually feel disenchanted and unrepresented. A lot of them say they haven't voted in a long time (anecdotal, yes, but i've heard it so often now). They'll increase the turnout.


It's one of the reasons I've begun to hate voting campaigners. You know, the type that tells you voting is the most important thing, no matter who you vote for, and that high turnout is a good thing in itself. It's not. Most people have no clue and no interest. It's good when they don't vote. When they do vote they base their votes on slogans on busses anyway.

 

[Ubik]

Tory tribalism surprisingly strong there, thought they'd be in the low teens.

 

[Kentonio]

What a coward Farage is. He has sneaked into the building via the back door and is refusing to come out to speak to the media.

It appears a milkshake doesn’t actually bring all the boys to the yard..

 

[SteveJ]

In true Brexit Party style, they're blaming Pakistani people for Labour's win.

 

[sun_tzu]

i can only see the Conservatives having to push the hard bexit (or managed no deal or a WTO deal - however they phrase it) to try and win back Brexit voters - equally labour probably having to become much more vocal about a 2nd referendum

Suspect there will be reluctance from the next conservative leader to go for a GE unless they have a massive bounce in the polls as it looks very hard to see a clear outcome

Perhaps a "no deal" vs remain confirmatiory referendum with a free vote for MP's is the most logical option - though I suspect in the scramble to be PM we might see most potential leaders explicitly rule this out...

it really is a big mess isnt it - can see the government collapsing and farrage winning power at this rate

 

[sun_tzu]

Conservative leadership election

Very useful info here from Guido (order-order.com)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet..._n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
in summary 57% of conservative MP's have publicly declared who they will back
I think its reasonable a to assume after the PM has gone today there will be a few more come out but so far we have

person Backers Leave / Remain Split
Johnson 44 (28 leave & 16 remain MPS)
Gove 30 (9 leave & 21 remain MPS)
Hunt 26 (3 leave & 23 remain MPS)
Raab 22 (18 leave & 4 remain MPS)
Javid 16 (4 leave & 12 remain MPS)
Hancock 12 (0 leave & 12 remain MPS)
Harper 6 (3 leave & 3 remain MPS)
Mcvey 5 (3 leave & 2 remain MPS)
Stewart 5 (0 leave & 5 remain MPS)
Gymah 3 (0 leave & 3 remain MPS)
Leadsom 2 (2 leave & 0 remain MPS)

Assuming they can all find sufficient people to back them and they dont withdraw before the first vote then the bottom placed person and anybody else with less than 16 votes will be eliminated... i would expect at this point we could see Harper, Mcvey, Stewart, Gymah and Ledsom all leave the process (though I suspect Mcvey and stewart are really hoping to get to the first TV debate but Im not sure its going to happen for them)

i would assume that Hancock and Javid will be out of the process by the second round at which point leave will coelesse around either Johnson or Raab (and probably boris unless Johnson drops an almighty clanger in the TV debates which I dont rule out)

There is probably then a clamour amongst the anybody but Boris bridgade of MP's that will weigh up Gove vs Hunt and they must realize Hunt has very little chance in a vote of the membership.

So most probably we have 2 white 50 something year old etonians battling for the hearts and minds... well votes of the membership - and its hard not to see Boris bumbling his way into the job

honestly...

or

I cant believe I am genuinely thinking Pob might be our best hope... what a mess... meh I blame corbyn

 

[RedSky]

Boris fecking Johnson. Just when I thought I couldn't have the Tories any more.

 

[Sweet Square]

@sun_tzu

Good posts.