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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
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Paul the Wolf

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The fundamental beauty of a binary referendum is that it makes you take one of two stark choices and no amount of reshaping, hindsight, or trying to reinvent what the question 'actually' meant will alter the fact, or don't vote at all!

You either didn't vote, or you voted to remain, so the choice now (and in fact always has been) is to revoke A50; or you voted to leave which was always a 'no deal' outcome because the EU said from the off it cannot negotiate a TD until we left the EU and we wanted to negotiate a TD alongside the WA, before we left.

Unless the law of the land is changed/repealed, or 'a deal' is agreed for Brexit and approved in Parliament, then we leave the EU on the 31st Oct. It is quite simple really and Boris is on a winner either way.

We've run out of road to kick the can down and the EU have run out of time, because if they don't break free of the Brexit saga, one way or another, the whole Union can blow up, with the various pressures being exerted elsewhere.
Agreed. There always was and always will be only 3 possible outcomes - revoke A50, accept the WA or go with no deal. But the Uk don't want any of those 3 choices. If the EU allow another extension it's not going to solve anything. They should say "make your mind up now".
 

Don't Kill Bill

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No pressure on Corbyn, he's the leader of the opposition so you'd expect him to take charge of any alternative government. As you say he's not there to implement Labour policy so any opposition from the Lib Dems or Tory rebels is either playing politics or self-interest. He's actually the most voted for person in the house given the rest haven't faced an election.

They'll need to give much better reasons than they're currently providing not to face a backlash.
No, Theresa May is which sucks for that justification though I agree with the rest.
 

Smores

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Labour under Corbyn are not a Remain party!! How are people not seeing that already? The very reason he wants an election first is because he thinks he can win a majority and then hold the second referendum with Labour supporting a leave deal they themselves negotiate. He wants to leave, but he wants to leave on Labour terms not Tory terms.

This isn’t some random analysis, all you have to do is listen to what he himself says. He says he’ll renegotiate the deal. Why would he do that if he wanted to remain? He says he won’t commit Labour to supporting Remain in a second referendum, why on earth would he say that if he wanted to remain?

There is literally no reason why a remainer would have any faith in Jeremy Corbyn to keep us in the EU. Which is exactly why he wants an election before a referendum, despite it making no sense to do so.
Ignoring your ridiculous analysis for a moment. Unless you're an easily influenced fool who doesn't trust themselves not to be dissuaded then why does it matter what Corbyn thinks?

If remainers are in the majority and vote for Labour they'll get a second referendum and thus be able to vote remain in said referendum. My above points stand.
 

devilish

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If Labour get rid of trotsky then i think lib dem would back them
 

Smores

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The person I'd expect to take charge of an alternative government is the person that would command majority support in parliament, not one opposition party, even if it is the largest. Corbyn's plan may or may not be a good one but it falls down because he himself is the obstacle. The pressure's just as much on Corbyn as the Liberals.
It falls down because of the Lib Dems, we've already got SNP, PC, Greens and even some Tories saying they'll back Corbyn on this because rightly it doesn't really matter that he's caretaker.

Labour have 247 MPs and then the other backers. Swinson has 14 in her party and it doesn't sound like she has them all aligned. Trying to argue that Labour is the blocker here is as bad as Boris blaming the EU.
 

ZupZup

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That is not happening.
Nobody is likely to get a majority given the Brexit divide. A remain alliance could take no deal off the table though in a second referendum should they command enough seats... which is probably the best they could hope for.
 

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It falls down because of the Lib Dems, we've already got SNP, PC, Greens and even some Tories saying they'll back Corbyn on this because rightly it doesn't really matter that he's caretaker.

Labour have 247 MPs and then the other backers. Swinson has 14 in her party and it doesn't sound like she has them all aligned. Trying to argue that Labour is the blocker here is as bad as Boris blaming the EU.
Where have I argued Labour is the blocker? I have argued Corbyn is the blocker, yes the Liberals too, and no doubt some of the Tories that would be needed, but that doesn't alter Corbyn's position, he is part of the problem, and a part he could easily solve.
 

MadMike

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What happens if the Tories win a GE or Leave win another referendum. Back to no deal or does the circus continue ad nauseam?
I imagine a new referendum would be more explicit in its options. There are technically 3 options: Revoke, Sign the WAB, No Deal. Whether all three options would be on the ballot I don't know, but this time it won't be such an open question as last time one hopes.

As to what happens if Tories win the GE, that's partly why Lib Dems don't want to back Corbyn's plan which is to have a GE before a referendum. Because if the Remain vote gets split and Tories win it, we're back to square one.
 

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I imagine a new referendum would be more explicit in its options. There are technically 3 options: Revoke, Sign the WAB, No Deal. Whether all three options would be on the ballot I don't know, but this time it won't be such an open question as last time one hopes.

As to what happens if Tories win the GE, that's partly why Lib Dems don't want to back Corbyn's plan which is to have a GE before a referendum. Because if the Remain vote gets split and Tories win it, we're back to square one.
I must have missed the bit where Labour dropped it's plan to renegotiate a wonderful new unicorn Brexit deal with the EU, or maybe they'll be campaigning for Remain instead, who knows. You think there's three options, I think there's three options, it's just no one has told Labour yet.
 

Adisa

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Nobody is likely to get a majority given the Brexit divide. A remain alliance could take no deal off the table though in a second referendum should they command enough seats... which is probably the best they could hope for.
Yeah I get that but a renegotiation isn't happening.
 

MadMike

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I must have missed the bit where Labour dropped it's plan to renegotiate a wonderful new unicorn Brexit deal with the EU, or maybe they'll be campaigning for Remain instead, who knows. You think there's three options, I think there's three options, it's just no one has told Labour yet.
You haven't missed it they still believe in that unicorn. But whether they secure any (minor) modifications or not in the WAB, it's still mostly the same deal that will be put to parliament or the people.

Point is, Labour's priority is a GE hoping to become government. Whereas other parties seem to want a 2nd ref first. Probably with a WAB vs Remain options only, which would eliminate the threat of no-deal Brexit more than a GE that could put Boris back in power.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I imagine a new referendum would be more explicit in its options. There are technically 3 options: Revoke, Sign the WAB, No Deal. Whether all three options would be on the ballot I don't know, but this time it won't be such an open question as last time one hopes.

As to what happens if Tories win the GE, that's partly why Lib Dems don't want to back Corbyn's plan which is to have a GE before a referendum. Because if the Remain vote gets split and Tories win it, we're back to square one.
Yes but whatever is on the ballot paper doesn't change what the three options are or whether Tories Labour or LibDems are in power. At some point someone's got to decide what to do. On the face of it Johnson wants a no deal, no-one wants or rather dares to revoke A50. The Withdrawal agreement is not going to change. Labour Corbyn supporters think Corbyn wants to remain even though its patently obvious he doesn't and he has no hope in hell of renegotiating the WA, at least not in the way he thinks.
If there's a GE before a referendum Labour's vote will probably be diluted between them, the Brexit Party and the LibDems.
 

MadMike

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Yes but whatever is on the ballot paper doesn't change what the three options are or whether Tories Labour or LibDems are in power. At some point someone's got to decide what to do. On the face of it Johnson wants a no deal, no-one wants or rather dares to revoke A50. The Withdrawal agreement is not going to change. Labour Corbyn supporters think Corbyn wants to remain even though its patently obvious he doesn't and he has no hope in hell of renegotiating the WA, at least not in the way he thinks.
If there's a GE before a referendum Labour's vote will probably be diluted between them, the Brexit Party and the LibDems.
Which is why the plan to go to a GE first is not as clever as it seems. All polls and by-elections indicate Labour tanking the next GE. It's to their advantage to have a referendum first before a new GE.
 

devilish

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who is mercader and who are stalin/beria behind him? :eek:
JC reminds me of a politician we had ie Alfred Sant. He was a good man and way more of a learned man then Jeremy is however he had something in him that the majority of people absolutely hated in him. He did win the GE only for him to piss of the godfather/Jesus of his party which forced him to a GE. Labour kept losing one election to another up until they got rid off him. Since then Labour became the political version of Pep's Barca. They keep winning and winning on record votes
 

Kentonio

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Ignoring your ridiculous analysis for a moment. Unless you're an easily influenced fool who doesn't trust themselves not to be dissuaded then why does it matter what Corbyn thinks?

If remainers are in the majority and vote for Labour they'll get a second referendum and thus be able to vote remain in said referendum. My above points stand.
If by ‘my ridiculous analysis’ you actually mean ‘things Corbyn himself has said’ then yes sure, let’s just ignore that.

As for why it matters, why the feck do you think it matters if Labour are pushing a leave agenda in the 2nd ref? It’s already going to be tight, but now we have to contend with Jezza filtering even more votes towards the leave side that would stay remain if Labour were backing remain. It’s not fecking rocket science.
 

Silva

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the puritanical remain schtick would be more believable if they weren't promoting ken and yvette who have repeatedly voted for and promoted the same or similar soft exists as corbyn
 

GloryHunter07

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Fecking politicians.

Just sort it out, i ought to crack your heads together.

As i understand it, we cant have multiple confidence votes. If Corbyn doesn't have the support we can try a different approach.
 

Sweet Square

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Yeah I saw it... inevitably a tad simplistic and driven to a conclusion (as all op-Ed’s are) but certainly not fanciful... there are plenty of Remainers who aren’t political novices, who even virulently opposed the status quo in their day and are aware that the younger generations have grown up with the failures of neoliberalism - many just can’t quite extracate themselves from the belief that the big battles were all kinda won by the late 90s, and the era in which they found themselves the most politically comfortable isn’t automatically the objectively “right” one. They believed Fukuyama.
Agree(I'm still amazed that people really brought into the end of history stuff considering within the next two decades liberal capitalism would shit it pants on the world stage).

The only positive is the this type of politics - Ultra Remain/Hard Brexit stance can't last forever. It will go away although what happens to those that believe in it, is anyone guess.
 

Mockney

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Agree(I'm still amazed that people really brought into the end of history stuff considering within the next two decades liberal capitalism would shit it pants on the world stage)..
Presumably because it told them they’d won. That their generation had “solved civilisation!” ... and as the children of a generation who’d fought a very tangible victory against a very obvious evil - and who’d presumably grown up being told all the things younger generations get told by older ones about being lazy and spoiled, except with the backing of a huge global war behind it - it allowed them to finally feel really good about their achievements, or lack of them...

Or maybe not, I dunno. That’s just a quick pop psychology reading I’ve pulled out of my arse, but it sounds good, dunnit?
 

Cheesy

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If the Lib Dems want to retain their credentials as a Remain party above all else then their focus needs to be entirely on that: their sudden pivot to Corbyn being just as bad as No Deal is an awful look for them. They've been calling on Corbyn to take charge for essentially the past two years...and yet now refuse to back him when for all intents and purposes he is willing to do that, even if tentatively and for his own self-gain. Whenever the Lib Dems are slated for their coalition with the Tories they regularly say that they had to put aside the interests of the party for the country...this is now a much more heightened version of that same argument, which holds higher consequences and would also be for a shorter period of time.

And they seem to be forgetting that they're just not all that relevant in parliament in the grand scheme of things. They have a remarkably small number of MP's compared to Labour and so their bargaining power only goes so far.
 

Mockney

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And they seem to be forgetting that they're just not all that relevant in parliament in the grand scheme of things. They have a remarkably small number of MP's compared to Labour and so their bargaining power only goes so far.
 
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Cheesy

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It's baffling. Their recent polling seems to have gone to their head. Like...I sympathise with their problems with Corbyn, because for the most part he has been shite on the issue and his campaigning during the referendum in 2016 wasn't good, but if your argument since then he been that he needs to solidly back No Deal and join a Remain alliance or something of that ilk, then this should be a victory for you today. You've got what you wanted!

The calls for Corbyn to stand down and for some random backbencher to take the job are just extremely bizarre. Labour should be expected to cooperate to stop Brexit or to implement a neutered version, but they shouldn't be expected to entirely abandon their own philosophy as a party and they shouldn't have to change their leader when they're the kingmakers here. Again, the Lib Dems were ten times more conciliatory to the Tories than this in 2010 when they had four times the MP's.
 

Mockney

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It’s is one of the most frustrating things about the Remain movement in general. It’s constantly telling everybody very loudly that they’re all idiots unless they do exactly what they want, without having any real mandate or authority to do so, and then seem perpetually baffled and even outraged when people won’t simply just do it.

Leave won the Referendum, Corbyn has won two Leadership contests, and yet everyone needs to sit down and listen to the sensible adults in C̶h̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ ̶U̶K̶ the Lib Dems because they say so...

And they’re completely oblivious to the optics of this, because Gary Linekar and James O Brien are on their side, or something.
 
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