Corbyn’s played an absolute blinder here, tbf.
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
Yeah, looks like he has pulled the rug from under Swinson over this. Labour can now attack Swinson as being prepared to back the Tories over austerity but not Labour to prevent no deal.
Disaster Liberalism
Very good
What sort of referendum does Corbyn want now he's converted, Remain or No Deal, Remain, No Deal or Deal, or something else. I think the Eu would want to know this before they granted an extension, and there ain't no point in an interim government unless we know they will grant one. And if he intends to fight a general election on a second referendum platform then again we would need to know what that second referendum would be. It's not a mere detail, it's the heart of the problem.
Except we won't know if the EU will give one until we get an interim government so it's not pointless it's a prerequisite.
I'd be shocked if no deal was included given the alliance would be to prevent no deal.
As far as I know the only confirmation as yet is that remain would be on the ballot.
For any of this to work, politics and self gain need to be put aside for a while. Swinson is living proof that this is unlikely to work.
It would have to be included as an option.
Well I doubt the EU would grant any extension on the basis of a referendum unless they knew what that referendum was, so that is the real prerequisite.
I accept that there has been an initial positive response from the other parties, albeit the Liberals say not under Corbyn, but wait a day or two, and the question 'What sort of referendum?' will need to be answered, not just for those parties, but for voters in the proposed election too.
Corbyn is an idiot. His own party are split on Brexit, so he wants an election he can’t win followed by a referendum where he’ll have to pick a side anyway and piss off half his own party.
If he had a brain cell in his head he’d support a second referendum first but under a temporary government he leads, followed by an election as soon as the referendum is done.
That way he removes Brexit from internal party politics (he’d lose votes from some Leavers but gain many back from Lib Dems, and once the ref is done he can bring back the leavers who actually care about Labour policies anyway), he’d run the next election on domestic policy where he can slaughter the Tories on austerity and their posh boy policies, and finally if the Lib Dems/Greens/SNP tried to stand in the way of the interim government he could genuinely destroy them publicly for allowing a no deal just because they don’t like him personally. It would put enormous pressure on the small parties to play along, especially as it would be purely a government to enact a referendum.
This really isn’t a complicated calculation, and yet once again Corbyn has to feck it up and create a situation that isn’t going to lead to anything but a Tory no-deal. Good work Jezza, once again you’ve fecked us with your out of touch, high handed wankery.
So what better plan have you got up your sleeve to avert no deal? Maybe he should just not bother as he will just annoy some of you guys on here. dammed if you do dammed if you don't. British people really have got the govt they deserve.
So in your superior calculations there's enough remainers for remain to win in a referendum but not enough remainers willing to vote for a remain party in a GE?
The critical bunch in here have been saying for months that if Labour only went remain that they'd win any election. These goal posts must be on tracks the amount they're moved.
There is a remain party but no-one in here wants to vote for them so they must be happy with what they've got. It's quite simple really.
Doesn't that assume that after a second referendum, everyone is just OK with the result and moves on? I'm not a Brit but to me it would be surprising if a general election, even after a second referendum, was about anything but Brexit. Regardless of the result of that second referendum.
If you've ever seen an episode of a sci-fi programme, where they take out the main baddie and all it's brainwashed minions wake up back to normal but confused about what happened, that's pretty much the Remain theory in regards to a second referendum win/revoking A50.
Every elections until 2050 will be about Brexit, one way or the other. They opened the pandora box and from a purely political point of view, it's great for all sides because remainers and brexiteers can bring it up until the end of times, they won't even have to think about other policies.
This is sadly quite true...and said as someone who’d consider themselves hugely sympathetic to the Remain cause (and often very critical of the Corbynist left) The recent blue tick commentariat pining for the halcyon days of the 2012 Olympics all but proved that there’s a decent section of the performatively Liberal centre that see Brexit as the cause of all Britain’s ills, rather than a long stewing symptom.
I was on a very middle class holiday recently with some perfectly nice but heavily FBPE peeps, who were bemoaning the fact that there’ll be riots on the streets if Brexit comes to pass, and I had to actively remind them, on two seperate occasions, that there already has been, a full year before 2012, because they’d actually forgotten it.
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Yeah, that's pretty much how I see it too.
Very good article in the guardian about the radicalisation of remain voters.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/13/brexit-remain-radicalisation-fbpe-peoples-vote
Nice thread title change
Indeed
It looks likely that if Corbyn stood aside then the Liberals and Tory rebels, who are also necessary for the proposal, might agree to it. As the interim government will supposedly not be there to implement Labour policy then there's no need for Corbyn to be it's leader as far as I can see. The pressure seems to be on Corbyn as much as the Liberals. Stand aside Corbyn, job's a good 'un.
No pressure on Corbyn, he's the leader of the opposition so you'd expect him to take charge of any alternative government. As you say he's not there to implement Labour policy so any opposition from the Lib Dems or Tory rebels is either playing politics or self-interest. He's actually the most voted for person in the house given the rest haven't faced an election.
They'll need to give much better reasons than they're currently providing not to face a backlash.
What happens if the Tories win a GE or Leave win another referendum. Back to no deal or does the circus continue ad nauseam?
The fundamental beauty of a binary referendum is that it makes you take one of two stark choices and no amount of reshaping, hindsight, or trying to reinvent what the question 'actually' meant will alter the fact, or don't vote at all!
You either didn't vote, or you voted to remain, so the choice now (and in fact always has been) is to revoke A50; or you voted to leave which was always a 'no deal' outcome because the EU said from the off it cannot negotiate a TD until we left the EU and we wanted to negotiate a TD alongside the WA, before we left.
Unless the law of the land is changed/repealed, or 'a deal' is agreed for Brexit and approved in Parliament, then we leave the EU on the 31st Oct. It is quite simple really and Boris is on a winner either way.
We've run out of road to kick the can down and the EU have run out of time, because if they don't break free of the Brexit saga, one way or another, the whole Union can blow up, with the various pressures being exerted elsewhere.
You either didn't vote, or you voted to remain, so the choice now (and in fact always has been) is to revoke A50; or you voted to leave which was always a 'no deal' outcome because the EU said from the off it cannot negotiate a TD until we left the EU and we wanted to negotiate a TD alongside the WA, before we left.
Unless the law of the land is changed/repealed, or 'a deal' is agreed for Brexit and approved in Parliament, then we leave the EU on the 31st Oct. It is quite simple really and Boris is on a winner either way.
We've run out of road to kick the can down and the EU have run out of time, because if they don't break free of the Brexit saga, one way or another, the whole Union can blow up, with the various pressures being exerted elsewhere.
Labour under Corbyn are not a Remain party!! How are people not seeing that already? The very reason he wants an election first is because he thinks he can win a majority and then hold the second referendum with Labour supporting a leave deal they themselves negotiate. He wants to leave, but he wants to leave on Labour terms not Tory terms.
This isn’t some random analysis, all you have to do is listen to what he himself says. He says he’ll renegotiate the deal. Why would he do that if he wanted to remain? He says he won’t commit Labour to supporting Remain in a second referendum, why on earth would he say that if he wanted to remain?
There is literally no reason why a remainer would have any faith in Jeremy Corbyn to keep us in the EU. Which is exactly why he wants an election before a referendum, despite it making no sense to do so.
Yeah I saw it... inevitably a tad simplistic and driven to a conclusion (as all op-Ed’s are) but certainly not fanciful... there are plenty of Remainers who aren’t political novices, who even virulently opposed the status quo in their day and are aware that the younger generations have grown up with the failures of neoliberalism - many just can’t quite extracate themselves from the belief that the big battles were all kinda won by the late 90s, and the era in which they found themselves the most politically comfortable isn’t automatically the objectively “right” one. They believed Fukuyama.
Just get on with it.
They're all too scared of the consequences.
The person I'd expect to take charge of an alternative government is the person that would command majority support in parliament, not one opposition party, even if it is the largest. Corbyn's plan may or may not be a good one but it falls down because he himself is the obstacle. The pressure's just as much on Corbyn as the Liberals.
It seems likely Labour and the SNP will be able to come to a working arrangement in parliament. Caroline Lucas and Sturgeon have both publicly come out and asked Swinson to rethink her rejection of Corbyn's proposal. The pressure right now is entirely on the Lib Dems. The idea that they get to dictate terms to the other parties is ludicrous and shows that the Lib Dems are more committed to stopping Corbyn from ever entering Downing Street than they are removing the Tories and preventing a No Deal Brexit.
Think through the process step by step. The government is toppled and a 2nd ref is announced and held. The country is bitterly divided and full of recriminations, BUT a 2nd referendum is ultimately a democratic exercise. Both sides would campaign like crazy, but the result would be delivered direct from the British public not from politicians or pundits, but from the voters themselves.
At that point whoever loses is basically crushed. If Leave win then the entire Remain argument about the public having been lied to in ‘16 and about giving people another chance to speak is all gone. If Remain win then the Leavers main argument about ‘the will of the people’ is totally dead. They can continue to whine about reruns and so on, but it’s a very hard argument to try and make in the face of the public voting that they changed their mind. Whichever way it goes, it sucks the oxygen out of the fight.
Obviously whichever way it went, there would still be a hardcore on either side who didn’t except it. Who would whine and argue and want to keep fighting on. But to the public at large it would be the end of a major chapter. I don’t believe there’s a big appetite in the country to extend this period of division endlessly, and for most people it would be a great opportunity to call an end to it all and move on.
Jo Swinson can go feck herself.
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...and how quickly do you think a temporary government could implement a second referendum? The best case scenario that has been presented as legally plausible, and this would necessitate the passing of various contentious legislation in parliament, is 22 weeks. Could you see an ad-hoc alliance of Labour/SNP/Lib Dems/Green/Tory rebels lasting that long and being able to achieve all this? The reality is that a general election is almost certainly going to have to precede a second referendum because the parliamentary arithmetic is far too precarious for any sort of "Remain" alliance.
Even ignoring this, it does amaze me how many people still view a second referendum as some sort of magic wand solution to stopping the whole process.
I'm still trying to figure out the Lib Dems strategy of pissing everyone off by appointing a leader who wants to snuggle up with a no deal brexit collaboration with the Tories. It's such a huge judgement error. Bizarre.
The reasoning for an election before a referendum is should a party that is against 'no deal' win, they have the mandate to take that option off the table in a second referendum.
So for example, should Labour win an election... they can renegotiate with the EU but at the end of the process we would effectively be left with a referendum with just two options. Labour's deal or Remain. You'd imagine the public would almost certainly back remain vs Brexit-lite but a lot of people aren't seeing the bigger picture.