Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

TheReligion

Abusive
Joined
Nov 22, 2006
Messages
51,606
Location
Manchester
I'm not sure what the answer here is as a general election, despite the fact it may not give any winner power in parliament, seems the only option to mix things back up.

Either we continue with this stalemate and allow more and more time to pass or we declare an election and effectively vote in the party we feel will deliver what we want however I can't see how this can be the Conservatives as they have already failed to agree amongst themselves so there would be no sense in re-electing a Johnson led party back into power.

That leaves us with the Labour party and another Brexit referendum (and also being stuck with Corbyn as PM), or the Lib Dems (who want to pull the plug on Brexit and have a brand new leader).
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,665
We just need another 20 odd and they won't even be the biggest party :lol:
 

ha_rooney

Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018
Joined
Dec 13, 2008
Messages
38,942
Loses control to Parliament, loses his majority, now losing his own family. But at least Donald still loves him :lol:
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
I'm not sure what the answer here is as a general election, despite the fact it may not give any winner power in parliament, seems the only option to mix things back up.

Either we continue with this stalemate and allow more and more time to pass or we declare an election and effectively vote in the party we feel will deliver what we want however I can't see how this can be the Conservatives as they have already failed to agree amongst themselves so there would be no sense in re-electing a Johnson led party back into power.

That leaves us with the Labour party and another Brexit referendum (and also being stuck with Corbyn as PM), or the Lib Dems (who want to pull the plug on Brexit and have a brand new leader).
I guess the only other possible outcome is a government of national unity being formed if johnson looses a confidence vote (which seems pretty certain he would now)
i couldnt see enough people backing corbyn - but I could see enough people backing ken clarke - especially as he is going to quit at the next ge anyway and (thanks to cummings) is now an independent MP... let him run the show for 6 months to a year (whatever it takes to organise a referendum) then he quits and we have a GE

Probably less likley than going straight to a Ge but quite a bit more likely than it was before IMO now hes been kicked out of the conservatives
 

Sparky_Hughes

I am Shitbeard.
Joined
Mar 26, 2008
Messages
17,540
If the EU grant extension I hope it stretches past the point where all these cnuts have to declare all of their dirty money sources. That would be sweet sweet nectar
Tin foil helmet time I know, but I really believe that will be a factor that tips the EU to agreeing to an extension, and my god it would make me happy!
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,665
Tin foil helmet time I know, but I really believe that will be a factor that tips the EU to agreeing to an extension, and my god it would make me happy!
I don't think that's tin foil hat at all. Boris and his ilk have constantly offended not just the EU but it's key figures if they can achieve their goals whilst also sticking it to them then I'm sure they will. It sends a message to the right in other countries too.
 

Buster15

Go on Didier
Joined
Aug 28, 2018
Messages
13,686
Location
Bristol
Supports
Bristol Rovers
So shit even his own brother can't work with him :lol:
Do you know what I am looking forward to.
Mr Bumble having to go to the EU asking for an extension to the end and of October and Nigel Farrage and his Brexit Party declaring war on him...
 

Paul the Wolf

Score Predictions Competition Organiser
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,956
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
You can make it far far less likely by not letting Boris call a snap election until the Benn bill passes and gets Royal assent.
And then what happens - it's just kicking the can down the road a little and that's assuming the EU allow an extension - it must be obvious by now to them that the UK parliament will never agree on any withdrawal agreement. If they allowed an extension to end January, they'd still be in the same state as they are now.

Say there was an election after Oct 31st - If Johnson wins, which is likely - he'll go no deal if Corbyn wins he'll try to negotiate his fantasy island deal and the Uk will be back to 2016 but the threat of no deal will still be there because parliament still won't agree a withdrawal agreement. It just goes on until the EU just run out of patience.
 

Sparky_Hughes

I am Shitbeard.
Joined
Mar 26, 2008
Messages
17,540
I don't think that's tin foil hat at all. Boris and his ilk have constantly offended not just the EU but it's key figures if they can achieve their goals whilst also sticking it to them then I'm sure they will. It sends a message to the right in other countries too.
It would be divine, its about time that people like mogg johnson and farage faced the consequences of their selfishness and treachery. Mogg is not just a selfish prick, he is actually evil, he is prepared to put peoples lives at risk for the sake of filling his already overflowing coffers, the clown is literally a fluffy white cat and volcano lair away from being a bond villain.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,603
Location
Centreback
And then what happens - it's just kicking the can down the road a little and that's assuming the EU allow an extension - it must be obvious by now to them that the UK parliament will never agree on any withdrawal agreement. If they allowed an extension to end January, they'd still be in the same state as they are now.

Say there was an election after Oct 31st - If Johnson wins, which is likely - he'll go no deal if Corbyn wins he'll try to negotiate his fantasy island deal and the Uk will be back to 2016 but the threat of no deal will still be there because parliament still won't agree a withdrawal agreement. It just goes on until the EU just run out of patience.
Maybe but lurching out in October would end any chance of a better outcome. A new referendum and staying in the EU is still possible even if unlikely.
 

Oldyella

Full Member
Joined
Jan 8, 2014
Messages
5,981
I don't think that's tin foil hat at all. Boris and his ilk have constantly offended not just the EU but it's key figures if they can achieve their goals whilst also sticking it to them then I'm sure they will. It sends a message to the right in other countries too.
It would be glorious!
 

Mogget

Full Member
Joined
Nov 27, 2013
Messages
6,570
Supports
Arsenal
But why? Why does anyone still vote for the Tories in the UK?
Because they somehow have the reputation of being the party of fiscal responsibility. Which is why the last 9 years of Tory rule have been nothing but sunshine and roses.
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Maybe but lurching out in October would end any chance of a better outcome. A new referendum and staying in the EU is still possible even if unlikely.
depending how you ask the question perhaps not so unlikely

perhaps a little extreme of an example but 1 or 2 questions? 2 or more options? transferable vote or not? - I think a 2nd referendum is going to take a lot of time (and lawyers) to agree a final question (which both sides will still say is unfair to them) - but hey anything is possible - id certainly vote to remain (as I did before)

And if we do leave Ill be voting for whoever campaigns for rejoin
 

The Firestarter

Full Member
Joined
Apr 8, 2010
Messages
28,524
Corbyn should fly a banner "Boris Johnson: a specialist in failure" . Then Ed should charge him a license fee.
 

Paul the Wolf

Score Predictions Competition Organiser
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,956
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
Maybe but lurching out in October would end any chance of a better outcome. A new referendum and staying in the EU is still possible even if unlikely.
Yes it could delay things and hope that people come to their senses, seems a very slim possibility but when there's still hope...
But my point was that if people are saying this bill takes no deal off the table, it is simply not true.
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Yes it could delay things and hope that people come to their senses, seems a very slim possibility but when there's still hope...
But my point was that if people are saying this bill takes no deal off the table, it is simply not true.
it explicitly and deliberately leaves it on the table... it only caveats that if there is no alternative deal presented by the PM for the HOC to vote on then the HOC will vote on no deal and if they reject that then the PM has to request an extension.

I do wonder though whats actually to stop him just refusing to do that on the 19th?

I would guess legal action would be taken but I suspect its not a five minute job to simply strip him of being the PM, agree and appoint somebody else, get them sworn in and then get them to go over?

I believe labour were getting legal advice today about how watertight (or not) the bill will be on the PM - I suspect the PM is getting similar advice in order to see if he can wiggle out of it
 

Paul the Wolf

Score Predictions Competition Organiser
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,956
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
Just listened a little to Gove giving evidence to the Brexit Committee - Gove waffling and the Brexit Committee seem to have no idea what they're doing. This is surely a joke.

Edit: Gove is a slimy toad. Talks a lot and says nothing.
 
Last edited:

Paul the Wolf

Score Predictions Competition Organiser
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,956
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
it explicitly and deliberately leaves it on the table... it only caveats that if there is no alternative deal presented by the PM for the HOC to vote on then the HOC will vote on no deal and if they reject that then the PM has to request an extension.

I do wonder though whats actually to stop him just refusing to do that on the 19th?

I would guess legal action would be taken but I suspect its not a five minute job to simply strip him of being the PM, agree and appoint somebody else, get them sworn in and then get them to go over?

I believe labour were getting legal advice today about how watertight (or not) the bill will be on the PM - I suspect the PM is getting similar advice in order to see if he can wiggle out of it
Yes but even if Johnson complied and the EU did grant an extension until 31st January. If today was the 1st February what happens now?
 

Buster15

Go on Didier
Joined
Aug 28, 2018
Messages
13,686
Location
Bristol
Supports
Bristol Rovers
Maybe but lurching out in October would end any chance of a better outcome. A new referendum and staying in the EU is still possible even if unlikely.
I am not so sure that a second referendum is unlikely.
To those wanting an election, I say be careful what you wish for.
Because it will solve nothing.
Only a second referendum can break the stalemate.
An early election is simply a trap and if Mr Bumble thinks that by appealing to the public later that he will somehow get his way, then he has completely misjudged public opinion.
And by the way his decision to suspend parliament is about shoot himself in both feet.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,603
Location
Centreback
Yes it could delay things and hope that people come to their senses, seems a very slim possibility but when there's still hope...
But my point was that if people are saying this bill takes no deal off the table, it is simply not true.
You can't totally take no deal off the table.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,603
Location
Centreback
depending how you ask the question perhaps not so unlikely

perhaps a little extreme of an example but 1 or 2 questions? 2 or more options? transferable vote or not? - I think a 2nd referendum is going to take a lot of time (and lawyers) to agree a final question (which both sides will still say is unfair to them) - but hey anything is possible - id certainly vote to remain (as I did before)

And if we do leave Ill be voting for whoever campaigns for rejoin
Q1 leave or revoke A50

Then if leave gets over 50%

Q2 May's deal or no deal
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Q1 leave or revoke A50

Then if leave gets over 50%

Q2 May's deal or no deal
its one option but the counter arguments would be... we have already had q1 so lets go straight to q2

and who is going to propose mays deal as q2?... not the conservatives (who want a harder deal)... and not labour (who want a softer deal)

Im pretty certain that calling something "Mays deal" would not pass the scrutiny of the electoral commission

as I say its going to have a lot of legal challenges as there is probably 20 different options available and 95% of people will disagree with 95% of them (format , options etc) - without all the legal arguments over wordings etc... it will take at least 6 months to run a referndum (by law - the period to pass the legistlation, the period for the question to be agreed, official campaigns designated then the run up period) - add in legal challanges and I wouldnt be surprised to see it take a year (and if somebody wanted to negotiate a new deal to put on the referendum... make that 2 years or more)
 

Maticmaker

Full Member
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Messages
4,797
Maybe but lurching out in October would end any chance of a better outcome. A new referendum and staying in the EU is still possible even if unlikely.
No, please, no more referendums, if we are staying in then the current parliament has to have the guts to revoke A50, that is the only way to stop a No Deal.

A new referendum would take ages to agree the question to be put, which despite talk of various options for the question to have any validity over the first referendum it would still have to be binary, i.e. Remain or Leave and in the meantime the government of this country will be 'all at sea', it has to end now. Parliament whilst it has the whip hand has to vote to revoke A50, its the last chance. Despite hopes that extensions might allow for a new referendum it also allows for a GE, Parliament cant keep Boris in office but not in power indefinitely, as the damage to the Government and economy would be ten times worse than a No Deal Brexit. After a relative short period of time the further real (not project fear) chaos caused will be firmly placed on Parliaments shoulders, and whenever the GE comes they will be slaughtered by a revised and renewed Brexit front, with the (albeit rump but sizeable) Conservative party deployed in formation with Brexit Party candidates across those areas where they can win.

Parliament has manoeuvred to get a foothold on power, but its a tenuous one, it has to act decisive and revoke A50 otherwise all is lost, any further extension leads to No Deal...eventually!
 

Massive Spanner

The Football Grinch
Joined
Jul 2, 2014
Messages
28,521
Location
Tool shed
No, please, no more referendums, if we are staying in then the current parliament has to have the guts to revoke A50, that is the only way to stop a No Deal.
I agree. A new referendum will solve nothing. What happens if remain wins by 1% this time? Or leave wins by 1.8% again.

The only way to fix this is for the Government to admit that putting the choice to the people in the first place was a stupid idea because the issue is far too big and broad to be decided like that, and revoke the whole thing and apologize. That will obviously not happen though because The UK is run by fecktards.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,603
Location
Centreback
No, please, no more referendums, if we are staying in then the current parliament has to have the guts to revoke A50, that is the only way to stop a No Deal.

A new referendum would take ages to agree the question to be put, which despite talk of various options for the question to have any validity over the first referendum it would still have to be binary, i.e. Remain or Leave and in the meantime the government of this country will be 'all at sea', it has to end now. Parliament whilst it has the whip hand has to vote to revoke A50, its the last chance. Despite hopes that extensions might allow for a new referendum it also allows for a GE, Parliament cant keep Boris in office but not in power indefinitely, as the damage to the Government and economy would be ten times worse than a No Deal Brexit. After a relative short period of time the further real (not project fear) chaos caused will be firmly placed on Parliaments shoulders, and whenever the GE comes they will be slaughtered by a revised and renewed Brexit front, with the (albeit rump but sizeable) Conservative party deployed in formation with Brexit Party candidates across those areas where they can win.

Parliament has manoeuvred to get a foothold on power, but its a tenuous one, it has to act decisive and revoke A50 otherwise all is lost, any further extension leads to No Deal...eventually!
I can't see A50 being revoked without another referendum no matter how much I hate them.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,603
Location
Centreback
its one option but the counter arguments would be... we have already had q1 so lets go straight to q2

and who is going to propose mays deal as q2?... not the conservatives (who want a harder deal)... and not labour (who want a softer deal)

Im pretty certain that calling something "Mays deal" would not pass the scrutiny of the electoral commission

as I say its going to have a lot of legal challenges as there is probably 20 different options available and 95% of people will disagree with 95% of them (format , options etc) - without all the legal arguments over wordings etc... it will take at least 6 months to run a referndum (by law - the period to pass the legistlation, the period for the question to be agreed, official campaigns designated then the run up period) - add in legal challanges and I wouldnt be surprised to see it take a year (and if somebody wanted to negotiate a new deal to put on the referendum... make that 2 years or more)
You might as well say we aleady voted in in 1975.

May's deal or a close facimilie is all there is.

And we should request a 2 year delay to get our shit together and hope the EU doesn't just want shot of us.
 

Siorac

Full Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2010
Messages
23,833
Exactly. And the number of old people will continue to get higher and higher. It used to be the case that the only thing stopping young people dominating the vote was their own inertia. But we’re fast heading towards a future where even if every one of them votes they will still be out-numbered.
That assumes that as people get older, they will become more and more likely to vote Tory. As far as I'm aware, generally political opinions are crystallised much earlier in life - it's not that old people are necessarily more conservative, it's that the currently old people are more conservative.
 

Simbo

Full Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2010
Messages
5,266
from BBC: "Jacob Rees-Mogg also confirmed Parliament would not be suspended - or prorogued - until the bill to block a no-deal Brexit has been passed into law".

Anyone see that? Bet that was like pulling teeth and then some.
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
You might as well say we aleady voted in in 1975.

May's deal or a close facimilie is all there is.

And we should request a 2 year delay to get our shit together and hope the EU doesn't just want shot of us.
you would hope that we wouldnt just fanny around for a couple of years this time with bluster and bullshit - but I have my doubts we would have learned our lesson