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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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MadMike

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I'm no Boris/Tory lover but yesterday was massively set up by the EU to further humiliate the UK and the PM. Given the state of the protest, and how close it was, there was absolutely no point in holding an outdoor press conference as it would have decended into chaos. The obvious thing to do would have been to hold it inside or away from the crowd - this was rejected by opposing officials for the sole reason it wouldn't have had the desired effect they wanted.

Boris should have gone and made an effort with the protestors but certainly not held a televised press conference in front of their heckling and abuse.
That’s the impression I got too. That it was a desired thing by the organisers that the protesters be heard loud and clear over the PM.

I feel that basically all hope of a deal is lost and we’ve descended into the blame game and it’s all about the impressions now.
 

TheReligion

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That’s the impression I got too. That it was a desired thing by the organisers that the protesters be heard loud and clear over the PM.

I feel that basically all hope of a deal is lost and we’ve descended into the blame game and it’s all about the impressions now.
I think the EU have come out of it looking pretty pathetic to be honest. Yes sections of the media and public will be critical of Boris but in my opinion it was very childish to refuse to hold the conference inside and clearly shows a total inability to work with the UK as opposed to petty point scoring and playing the blame game when everyone should be pulling together to sort this mess out.
 

Pexbo

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That’s the impression I got too. That it was a desired thing by the organisers that the protesters be heard loud and clear over the PM.

I feel that basically all hope of a deal is lost and we’ve descended into the blame game and it’s all about the impressions now.
I think the EU are absolutely fed up with the conservative government and have accepted that getting a deal out of them is an impossibility so they are waiting for No Deal or an extension and General Election.

I genuinely believe they would reopen negotiations with a Labour/Coalition government as they would be confident that firstly, the rigid red lines around freedom of movement, Single Market and Customs Union would be relaxed. Secondly, any new deal that is negotiated will be put to a second referendum. That way the only two outcomes would be revoke or a much softer Brexit.

If the Tories get in again, they’re no worse off.
 

Smores

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I think the EU have come out of it looking pretty pathetic to be honest. Yes sections of the media and public will be critical of Boris but in my opinion it was very childish to refuse to hold the conference inside and clearly shows a total inability to work with the UK as opposed to petty point scoring and playing the blame game when everyone should be pulling together to sort this mess out.
They couldn't fit the press into an internal location in the last minute time frame, i don't know how that's more childish than a grown man being scared to speak in front of a small crowd in case they shout.

The mans been heckled at every event he's done including the Tory organised ones yet it's the EUs fault he backed out. He's just going Mays route of avoiding the public and hand picking all audiences or not doing it.
 

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What did the EU have to gain by setting that up?

Boris has been found out. He knew he couldn't get a deal from the EU that MP's would support but insisted through the entire leadership contest that he could, such was his thirst for power. All he has said since is that he can see 'a patch', 'a clearing', 'a rough outline', 'a landing place' of what a deal looks like. In other words, he doesn't have a fecking clue. He's pursued No Deal with real vigour and taken tangible steps to secure it but we've had absolutely nothing concrete that suggests deal negotiations are even happening. It's a charade. May's deal wasn't good enough to pass but was the best we could get and rightly so given the strength of our position. The EU are doing exactly what they should be doing to protect what they believe in and that's not budge an inch and make their red lines very clear or the entire system is undermined, it's the UK's job to figure out the rest.

Where has the arguably charismatic orator gone in Boris Johnson? I hear him speak almost daily and he sounds not only senile but devoid of any intelligent thought, echoing the same soundbite about things we 'must' do. It's tiring and he's a fraud.
 

TheReligion

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They couldn't fit the press into an internal location in the last minute time frame, i don't know how that's more childish than a grown man being scared to speak in front of a small crowd in case they shout.

The mans been heckled at every event he's done including the Tory organised ones yet it's the EUs fault he backed out. He's just going Mays route of avoiding the public and hand picking all audiences or not doing it.
I don't think it's a case of being scared. Essentially it's a key period of negotiation where all sides want to be seen as holding power. Being put up Infront of that crowd would have been humiliation and hardly done anything to strengthen our position - if anything it further weakens it.

Essentially they are all playing games and I'm pretty glad we didn't play this one.
 

Buster15

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Nothing he says will make me forget that he got us in this mess in the first place and ran a crap remain campaign.
You and me both. And to see him now trying to be contrite and apologetic is even worse.
 

EwanI Ted

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I think the EU are absolutely fed up with the conservative government and have accepted that getting a deal out of them is an impossibility so they are waiting for No Deal or an extension and General Election.

I genuinely believe they would reopen negotiations with a Labour/Coalition government as they would be confident that firstly, the rigid red lines around freedom of movement, Single Market and Customs Union would be relaxed. Secondly, any new deal that is negotiated will be put to a second referendum. That way the only two outcomes would be revoke or a much softer Brexit.

If the Tories get in again, they’re no worse off.
I have to say don't agree with this argument, it just doesn't stack up logically for me.

The EU's preferred option is, as far as I know, still for Britain to remain. Labour have committed to backing Remain in a second referendum if no new deal is made, because they will never back May's original deal. If the EU offer Labour a new "better" (from Labour's perspective) deal, then officially Labour will either back that deal, or at most, take no position at all in a second referendum.

Given the narrowness of polling on the issue, its no exaggeration to suggest that a Labour's Government's position on whether to back Remain or not is will be among the two or three most influential factors affecting the outcome, if not the most influential.

The EU have already agreed a deal with us once, in good faith, it was us that rejected it. So given that it wasn't their fault the original deal failed, and that its absolutely against their best interests to renegotiate, what incentive is there for them to drop the old deal and start all over again?
 

MadMike

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They couldn't fit the press into an internal location in the last minute time frame, i don't know how that's more childish than a grown man being scared to speak in front of a small crowd in case they shout.

The mans been heckled at every event he's done including the Tory organised ones yet it's the EUs fault he backed out. He's just going Mays route of avoiding the public and hand picking all audiences or not doing it.
I got the impression the protesters were there most of the day, knowing the PM was there and he would speak. The organisers knew they were there and that they would be a nuisance long before it came to a head. It didn't look like a last minute thing.

I don't think any politician likes to be heckled and booed while giving a speech, that's not strictly a Boris thing. He is neither the first or the last not wanting to put up with it. Every party's event organisers try to ensure that their politicians get a smooth ride when they speak publicly, otherwise it's not a good look at all.
 

Fluctuation0161

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I think the EU have come out of it looking pretty pathetic to be honest. Yes sections of the media and public will be critical of Boris but in my opinion it was very childish to refuse to hold the conference inside and clearly shows a total inability to work with the UK as opposed to petty point scoring and playing the blame game when everyone should be pulling together to sort this mess out.
Does anyone have the ability to work with this Conservative government bar Saudi arms buyers and Chinese nuclear investors?
 

Maticmaker

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What really is her long game if she doesn’t get 300 seats?
A Career outside politics maybe, she is young enough for that, or if she stays a lucrative appointment as a 'good European' in a Commissioner role?

Lets be honest if she pulls it off she will be the best thing since slice bread in some circles and the Lib Dems may not be much worse off, if she crashes and burns, so win -win really. At least for her personally, for the Party however it could be 'as you were' or it could be oblivion, with a rump of former Tories as their only MP's.

The difficulty is if she finishes up somewhere in the middle, who will she pair up with, she has slated both Tories and Labour, so maybe Greens and Nationalists?

Swinson is at least being honest, she doesn't give a feck about the result of the first referendum or indeed a second referendum and will do only what she wants to do, stuff the electorate... can't say fairer than that now can she?
 

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I have to say don't agree with this argument, it just doesn't stack up logically for me.

The EU's preferred option is, as far as I know, still for Britain to remain. Labour have committed to backing Remain in a second referendum if no new deal is made, because they will never back May's original deal. If the EU offer Labour a new "better" (from Labour's perspective) deal, then officially Labour will either back that deal, or at most, take no position at all in a second referendum.

Given the narrowness of polling on the issue, its no exaggeration to suggest that a Labour's Government's position on whether to back Remain or not is will be among the two or three most influential factors affecting the outcome, if not the most influential.

The EU have already agreed a deal with us once, in good faith, it was us that rejected it. So given that it wasn't their fault the original deal failed, and that its absolutely against their best interests to renegotiate, what incentive is there for them to drop the old deal and start all over again?
The problem with May's negotiations and May's deal is that she had rigid red lines which they would not budge on at all and that defined the shape of the eventual deal and the reason the backstop exists. If a Labour or Labour led coalition agreed to stay in the SM and CU then the backstop issue is gone. The current shape of parliament would never in a million years pass a deal like that or let the public vote on it but I believe that in the scenario of a Labour/Coalition government there would be enough MPs to agree to that being a soft enough Brexit to at least put to a vote (partly because they would be confident enough that Remain would win that vote comfortably).
 

MadMike

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A Career outside politics maybe, she is young enough for that, or if she stays a lucrative appointment as a 'good European' in a Commissioner role?
For obvious reasons, the EU doesn't give positions of power to non-EU diplomats or politicians. So that's completely off the table if the UK leaves.

The difficulty is if she finishes up somewhere in the middle, who will she pair up with, she has slated both Tories and Labour, so maybe Greens and Nationalists?
There's no one to pair with. That's the thing. The only one she hasn't ruled out is SNP. But SNP will likely require a 2nd Indy Ref as price for propping up anyone. And that's extremely dangerous (and unfair) to give in this climate.

With UK in such political turmoil Scotland is more likely to vote out than last time, as a reaction to the current state. Like the EU Ref was affected by people sticking two fingers up to the establishment after years of austerity and London-centric policies following the financial crash and recession.

Swinson is at least being honest, she doesn't give a feck about the result of the first referendum or indeed a second referendum and will do only what she wants to do, stuff the electorate... can't say fairer than that now can she?
To be fair, only the electorate can give her the 300 seats she claims she can get. So if she does get them, that's not really "stuff the electorate" is it? It would indicate a massive swing of the vote towards Remain. It's actually much easier to get a Revoke result in a referendum (about half the country is pro-Remain anyway) than for Lib Dems to get 300 seats in a GE.
 
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Maticmaker

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Essentially they are all playing games and I'm pretty glad we didn't play this one.
Agreed, up to now the EU could claim some of the high ground in terms of Brexit 'gaming-restraint', despite "the special place in hell" and other such comments they have a least given a semblance of 'sticking together', even to the extent of getting May to sit on the naughty step at one conference. However yesterdays attempt to embarrass Boris, was tantamount to the little guy running up to the big guy, kicking his shins then running away grinning, hoping his big brother will sort it out after.

The handcart on the road to hell, beckons further for both parties. "We're all doomed, doomed ah tell yer"!
 

Maticmaker

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So that's completely off the table if the UK leaves.
... but not if we don't leave! Swinson may not win outright but her 'No Brexit at any cost' stance' will award her Joan of Arc type status, especially if the Lib Dems lose out to Labour and then chuck her out!

There's no one to pair with. That's the thing. The only one she hasn't ruled out is SNP. But SNP will likely require a 2nd Indy Ref as price for propping up anyone. And that's extremely dangerous (and unfair) to give in this climate.
If the only option left to her take hold of the reigns of power in Westminster, Swinson will be odds on to let the Scots have Indy 2, besides she doesn't seem to want to take notice of any referendum results so the SNP can go ahead, she if she cares!

To be fair, only the electorate can give her the 300 seats she claims she can get.
To revoke A50 will still ignore the result of the last referendum and whilst some Leavers may have changed their mind, there will still be a significant divide and the majority of the UK contingent in the EU Parliament is still held by euro sceptics. The chance to revoke A50 occurred when May couldn't get her deal through, her last act should have been to say I've tried but failed, hence I am revoking A50...swift exit stage left!
 
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Kentonio

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... but not if we don't leave! Swinson may not win outright but her 'No Brexit at any cost' stance' will award her Joan or Arc type status, especially if the Lib Dems lose out to Labour and then chuck her out!
Why would they chuck her out for losing to Labour? Literally no-one thinks the Lib Dems will get more seats than Labour.
 

Smores

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I don't think it's a case of being scared. Essentially it's a key period of negotiation where all sides want to be seen as holding power. Being put up Infront of that crowd would have been humiliation and hardly done anything to strengthen our position - if anything it further weakens it.

Essentially they are all playing games and I'm pretty glad we didn't play this one.
It weakens our negotiating position? How?
 

Maticmaker

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Why would they chuck her out for losing to Labour? Literally no-one thinks the Lib Dems will get more seats than Labour.
Swinson does!
She is set to bring in Tory carpetbaggers to contest 'winnable' seats? If these are successful, but overall the Lib Dem vote goes down, especially in traditional Lib Dem seats,(to Labour) there will be a case for removing Ms Swinson!

The best she can hope for is for the Lib-dems to hold the balance of power and/or be able to play king-maker, odds on says she will try to take the Lib Dems somewhere they don't want to go, remember the last coalition??

Swinson is gambling it all on her Brexit stance, which is fine in a referendum, but dangerous stuff in a GE when she and her colleagues jobs are at stake.
 

EwanI Ted

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The problem with May's negotiations and May's deal is that she had rigid red lines which they would not budge on at all and that defined the shape of the eventual deal and the reason the backstop exists. If a Labour or Labour led coalition agreed to stay in the SM and CU then the backstop issue is gone. The current shape of parliament would never in a million years pass a deal like that or let the public vote on it but I believe that in the scenario of a Labour/Coalition government there would be enough MPs to agree to that being a soft enough Brexit to at least put to a vote (partly because they would be confident enough that Remain would win that vote comfortably).
This misses the point. When May entered negotiations, Remain was not an option. The only options were Deal or No Deal. So of course the EU entered negotiations to get a deal, it was in everyone's interests to do so, including theirs. A deal was, at that point, their best possible outcome.

But Labour have put Remain back on the table, by virtue of a second referendum, so the situation is different to when May was negotiating. Now the potential options are Remain, Deal or No Deal. The EU's best possible outcome is Remain, and the way for them to get it is to stick with the current deal, which would make Labour back Remain too.

Given this, I still fail to see what possible incentive is there for the EU to renegotiate?
 

TheReligion

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It weakens our negotiating position? How?
It makes us look even weaker. The plaything of the EU. Just my opinion of course but I think it's naive of people to not think the EU didn't plan or want Boris to be humiliated by the crowd.

I can't recall protests being allowed when Juncker was speaking in public amidst the abuse he was getting around climate change for example.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I'm no Boris/Tory lover but yesterday was massively set up by the EU to further humiliate the UK and the PM. Given the state of the protest, and how close it was, there was absolutely no point in holding an outdoor press conference as it would have decended into chaos. The obvious thing to do would have been to hold it inside or away from the crowd - this was rejected by opposing officials for the sole reason it wouldn't have had the desired effect they wanted.

Boris should have gone and made an effort with the protestors but certainly not held a televised press conference in front of their heckling and abuse.
Firstly what nationality were the people who were heckling Boris and if a leader cannot stand up in front of few dozen people proves how pathetic he really is. Quite brave to stand up in front of people who agree with him. Hopeless.
 

JPRouve

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It makes us look even weaker. The plaything of the EU. Just my opinion of course but I think it's naive of people to not think the EU didn't plan or want Boris to be humiliated by the crowd.

I can't recall protests being allowed when Juncker was speaking in public amidst the abuse he was getting around climate change for example.
Where there protests at all?
 

Fluctuation0161

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For obvious reasons, the EU doesn't give positions of power to non-EU diplomats or politicians. So that's completely off the table if the UK leaves.



There's no one to pair with. That's the thing. The only one she hasn't ruled out is SNP. But SNP will likely require a 2nd Indy Ref as price for propping up anyone. And that's extremely dangerous (and unfair) to give in this climate.

With UK in such political turmoil Scotland is more likely to vote out than last time, as a reaction to the current state. Like the EU Ref was affected by people sticking two fingers up to the establishment after years of austerity and London-centric policies following the financial crash and recession.



To be fair, only the electorate can give her the 300 seats she claims she can get. So if she does get them, that's not really "stuff the electorate" is it? It would indicate a massive swing of the vote towards Remain. It's actually much easier to get a Revoke result in a referendum (about half the country is pro-Remain anyway) than for Lib Dems to get 300 seats in a GE.
I love a Lib Dem "hypothetical".
 

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I'm no Boris/Tory lover but yesterday was massively set up by the EU to further humiliate the UK and the PM. Given the state of the protest, and how close it was, there was absolutely no point in holding an outdoor press conference as it would have decended into chaos. The obvious thing to do would have been to hold it inside or away from the crowd - this was rejected by opposing officials for the sole reason it wouldn't have had the desired effect they wanted.

Boris should have gone and made an effort with the protestors but certainly not held a televised press conference in front of their heckling and abuse.
Yes totally, just look at how the nefarious EU make him also speak outside 10 Downing Street with similar protests audible in the background.
 

Berbasbullet

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I'm no Boris/Tory lover but yesterday was massively set up by the EU to further humiliate the UK and the PM. Given the state of the protest, and how close it was, there was absolutely no point in holding an outdoor press conference as it would have decended into chaos. The obvious thing to do would have been to hold it inside or away from the crowd - this was rejected by opposing officials for the sole reason it wouldn't have had the desired effect they wanted.

Boris should have gone and made an effort with the protestors but certainly not held a televised press conference in front of their heckling and abuse.
Ridiculous, presenting your opinion as demonstrable fact.

Johnson was the one who decided to back out. There wasn’t room for all of the press and apparently there were difficulties in moving the equipment.

It’s not Luxembourg’s fault that Johnson is abhorrent and people want to protest.
 
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Virgil

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To be fair, only the electorate can give her the 300 seats she claims she can get. So if she does get them, that's not really "stuff the electorate" is it? It would indicate a massive swing of the vote towards Remain. It's actually much easier to get a Revoke result in a referendum (about half the country is pro-Remain anyway) than for Lib Dems to get 300 seats in a GE.

Hmmm. Given that any GE will be on the first past the post system and given our history of electing governments with well less than 50 percent of the popular vote its difficult to see how it would not be "stuff the electorate". Notwithstanding that one of the key planks of the remain campaign has always been that the closeness of the vote was so important.

Not that I think she will get a working majority (a decent increase in numbers yep but not enough to form a government) but just supposing she did. Would that not open a real can of worms? What if the SNP used the same line. Vote for us and we will declare independence? What morally would be the difference between that and vote for us and we will remain in the EU.

And there I have for all these years been smugly believing that our political system had much to teach the world. How daft is that.
 

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This misses the point. When May entered negotiations, Remain was not an option. The only options were Deal or No Deal. So of course the EU entered negotiations to get a deal, it was in everyone's interests to do so, including theirs. A deal was, at that point, their best possible outcome.

But Labour have put Remain back on the table, by virtue of a second referendum, so the situation is different to when May was negotiating. Now the potential options are Remain, Deal or No Deal. The EU's best possible outcome is Remain, and the way for them to get it is to stick with the current deal, which would make Labour back Remain too.

Given this, I still fail to see what possible incentive is there for the EU to renegotiate?
At this point I actually think the EU's preference is for a soft Brexit. The issue of Brexit isn't going to go away and remain winning the referendum will only be viewed as 1-1 even if remain won 60/40+. If we did remain in the UK, the EU-sceptic press will just ramp up anti-EU sentiments and do their best to disrupt the EU agenda.

At least with a soft Brexit and legally binding agreements for membership to the SM/CU for XX years, it would limit the amount of influence the EU-sceptics could have.


I also genuinely believe that the majority of the country is absolutely sick of Brexit and if you took the moderates from each camp (which is 90%+ of the country), in the event of a soft Brexit, the remainers would say "Well that's not as bad as it could have been, lets move on" and the leavers would say "We won, Brexit happened and the country isn't falling apart like you said it would".
 

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I also genuinely believe that the majority of the country is absolutely sick of Brexit
I maintain that the force-feeding of Brexit to the public via tv, press, radio and so on is a deliberate strategy. And that's regardless of the undoubted importance of the subject.
 

SteveJ

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I have my reasons, and not all of them are insane.
 

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in the event of a soft Brexit, the remainers would say "Well that's not as bad as it could have been, lets move on" and the leavers would say "We won, Brexit happened and the country isn't falling apart like you said it would".
You might well be right but the 90% would still be utterly wrong. It is a truly stupid idea based on a protest vote against (ironically) being treated terribly by the top end of town (Boris and his ilk), idiotic nostalgic nationalism for a past that never really existed with the xenophobic nutcases added on top.
 

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I can only laugh at the people saying the EU are playing games. The UK is yet to even table an alternative to the backstop. Not only that, significant numbers of MPs are saying removing the backstop isn't enough for them.
The EU have realised Boris is nit here to negotiate. He is here to run the clock down.
 

Smores

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It makes us look even weaker. The plaything of the EU. Just my opinion of course but I think it's naive of people to not think the EU didn't plan or want Boris to be humiliated by the crowd.

I can't recall protests being allowed when Juncker was speaking in public amidst the abuse he was getting around climate change for example.
Weaker to who? If it's to EU themselves you're saying they set it up so surely backing out shows manipulation works and that's what would be seen as weakness.

If it's the public i fail to see how they could look weaker anyway but also how the EU in making a decision on our proposals is somehow in any way linked to protests during a joint speech with the PM of Luxembourg. "We were going to allow the removal of the backstop and feck over ireland but then that heckler shouted you were a wanker and we decided not to"
 

WensleyMU

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Out of interest what would have been achieved holding a press conference where the PM of both nations is shouted down so nobody can hear anything?

Any talks of value happened before. The Luxembourg PM was just looking for brownie points with the rabid remainer crowd. Nothing more.

It's another of those small victories people are obsessed over.
 

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At this point I actually think the EU's preference is for a soft Brexit. The issue of Brexit isn't going to go away and remain winning the referendum will only be viewed as 1-1 even if remain won 60/40+. If we did remain in the UK, the EU-sceptic press will just ramp up anti-EU sentiments and do their best to disrupt the EU agenda.
Sorry, but Britain leaving the EU is a threat to the long term viability of the EU itself. The idea of the EU willingly passing up an opportunity for that to be prevented, and prevented via a democratic vote to boot, simply to keep likes of the Daily Mail and Nigel Farage quiet is fairly absurd.
 

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Out of interest what would have been achieved holding a press conference where the PM of both nations is shouted down so nobody can hear anything?

Any talks of value happened before. The Luxembourg PM was just looking for brownie points with the rabid remainer crowd. Nothing more.

It's another of those small victories people are obsessed over.
Out of interest the only people bothered are the rabid British Brexit press how Luxembourg humiliated poor little UK. We could hear quite clearly what the Luxembourg PM was saying. Boris was supposed to announce the progress and the plan and how the people's lives who were outside would not be damaged - didn't have a lot to say, or if he had something to say and it was positive news for those people surely he would have been cheered.

Probably had nothing to say.
 

SteveJ

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Johnson's absence was simply another way to avoid scrutiny & awkward questions... again.