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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
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Wibble

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https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/16/political-trackers-14-15-oct-update

Doesn't look that way I'm afraid. Sure the Tories could blow a poll lead ala Theresa May during the campaign but I think that is unlikely. Labours conduct in this saga will have done a lot of damage - especially to Corbyns credentials as a potential PM. Plus, for all that he is, Boris Johnson is popular.

Timing and circumstance will be key. At the moment BJ is making big capital out of the People v Parliament idea. If his deal gets scuppered or delayed he can go to the country claiming that he did his absolute best but was stopped by 'that lot'. 'Give me the majority and I'll deliver Brexit and all those other money tree promises'. I reckon 340+ seats.

It might change - BJ is more than capable of shooting himself in both feet. But right now he and Cummings seem be ahead of the game.
How is that possible? He is a despicable clown with no loyalty to anyone or anything that doesn't enrich or benefit him or at a push, and only if if it doesn't harm him, his mates in the Bullingdon Dining club.
 

sullydnl

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Wouldn't be mostly due to the age gap, though? Far more younger people now go to university than would have 40-50 years ago.
There was a paper published by researchers from the University of Leicester that suggested education level was the predominant factor rather than age, sex, gender, income level or employment. I ain't read the paper though so.... *shrugs*
 

Honest John

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How is that possible? He us a despicable clown with no loyalty to anyone or anything that doesn't enrich or benefit him or, at a push and only if if it doesn't harm him, his mates in the Bullingdon Dining club.
Incredible but true I'm afraid. He is charming and wins people over regardless of what he has said or done. He is also an optimist, picks himself up after setbacks and has another go. Often futile and misguided but people like that.

Edit* Difficult to pinpoint but in a way his fallibility seems to be his strength. Clearly there would be limits to that. My missus thinks he's great. :confused:
 
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stevoc

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So now where here there will be "admin fees" for businesses and residents ordering things from the mainland UK... What a fecking joke, the vast majority of purchase and trade is done with mainland UK. Yeah this is a great deal for NI. :lol:
That sounds great doesn’t it. As if we don’t already get shafted enough by disproportionately high shipping surcharges.
 

Rafaeldagold

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Anyone else seriously considering leaving the UK if a hard right Tory brexit comes in? It’ll be disastrous & move is more towards American style of regulations with less workers rights (hours, holiday leave) Will lead to NHS going eventually (and I work in that sector)

I feel like common sense would be we’ll return one day to the EU but that could be 10-15 years away.

The Tories & hard right seem to have won & the polls are Torys winking the next election which I can’t get my head around...
 

T00lsh3d

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Incredible but true I'm afraid. He is charming and wins people over regardless of what he has said or done. He is also an optimist, picks himself up after setbacks and has another go. Often futile and misguided but people like that.

Edit* Difficult to pinpoint but in a way his fallibility seems to be his strength. Clearly there would be limits to that. My missus thinks he's great. :confused:
People see him as a loveable big-hearted guy who’s trying to enact the will of the people.
They don’t look deep enough to see the callousness and self-serving attitude, never mind the real reasons that hide behind the ‘will of the people’.
 

Wibble

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Incredible but true I'm afraid. He is charming and wins people over regardless of what he has said or done. He is also an optimist, picks himself up after setbacks and has another go. Often futile and misguided but people like that.

Edit* Difficult to pinpoint but in a way his fallibility seems to be his strength. Clearly there would be limits to that. My missus thinks he's great. :confused:
Charming? He comes across as the biggest cnut in the known universe. I want to punch him repeatedly the moment he speaks.
 
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esmufc07

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Anyone else seriously considering leaving the UK if a hard right Tory brexit comes in? It’ll be disastrous & move is more towards American style of regulations with less workers rights (hours, holiday leave) Will lead to NHS going eventually (and I work in that sector)

I feel like common sense would be we’ll return one day to the EU but that could be 10-15 years away.

The Tories & hard right seem to have won & the polls are Torys winking the next election which I can’t get my head around...
 

Honest John

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Anyone else seriously considering leaving the UK if a hard right Tory brexit comes in? It’ll be disastrous & move is more towards American style of regulations with less workers rights (hours, holiday leave) Will lead to NHS going eventually (and I work in that sector)

I feel like common sense would be we’ll return one day to the EU but that could be 10-15 years away.

The Tories & hard right seem to have won & the polls are Torys winking the next election which I can’t get my head around...
The notion that the Tories would take us down those roads is being overplayed in my view. They are all nailed-on vote losers. It would be suicide for them. I think the main aim is the principle of setting our own rules and regulations, not gaining the power to degrade them. To imply that the UK is unable to run an employment policy that stands up in a 21st century world without the EU showing it how, or forcing it to do so, is downright disingenuous.

Case in point EU minimum holiday entitlement is 4 weeks in the UK it is 5.6. If the governments intention was to reduce workers rights they could start right there and claim parity with the EU.
 

Rafaeldagold

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The notion that the Tories would take us down those roads is being overplayed in my view. They are all nailed-on vote losers. It would be suicide for them. I think the main aim is the principle of setting our own rules and regulations, not gaining the power to degrade them. To imply that the UK is unable to run an employment policy that stands up in a 21st century world without the EU showing it how, or forcing it to do so, is downright disingenuous.

Case in point EU minimum holiday entitlement is 4 weeks in the UK it is 5.6. If the governments intention was to reduce workers rights they could start right there and claim parity with the EU.
Anything the Tories do they still seem to win- it’s so disheartening.

Also US has less holiday leave than us & EU
 

Fingeredmouse

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The notion that the Tories would take us down those roads is being overplayed in my view. They are all nailed-on vote losers. It would be suicide for them. I think the main aim is the principle of setting our own rules and regulations, not gaining the power to degrade them. To imply that the UK is unable to run an employment policy that stands up in a 21st century world without the EU showing it how, or forcing it to do so, is downright disingenuous.

Case in point EU minimum holiday entitlement is 4 weeks in the UK it is 5.6. If the governments intention was to reduce workers rights they could start right there and claim parity with the EU.
We shall see. I think it us naive at best to believe an unfettered Tory party will not actively choose to erode worker's rights and stealth privatise the NHS.
 

Sweet Square

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The 'socialist' part of the NSDAP was basically a label to attract the working class away from communism, in it's implementation national socialism was a fusion of business leaders and government so not socialist at all. Like I said they disbanded the unions very quickly after gaining power.

There were old communists in the party leadership, mostly from Northern Germany, but these either dropped their socialist ideas like Goebbels or were pushed out/killed like Stasser.
Whenever Colin says just about anything its worth remember this


 

DFreshKing

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We shall see. I think it us naive at best to believe an unfettered Tory party will not actively choose to erode worker's rights and stealth privatise the NHS.
What would make them unfettered? A useless opposition? That should be rectified.

#Stopbrexit #Savedemocracy....... Anyone see the problem there?
 

Fingeredmouse

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What would make them unfettered? A useless opposition? That should be rectified.

#Stopbrexit #Savedemocracy....... Anyone see the problem there?
The only problem I see is your non-sequitur.

What would make them unfettered is the utter dominance of the Tory party and the politics of the right in the dense populations of the South of England. Hence a workable majority and no prospect of the Tories losing power anytime soon. Combine this with no regulation from the EU protecting worker's (and human) rights then the prospect of reduced worker's rights being eroded is highly probable.

The dominance of the politics of the right in the UK, especially Southern England, mean that an opposition which is not "useless" is required to drift pretty far to the right (or the centre in right leaning England) to get elected. This is highly unpalatable to me and to my country in general where our political centre ground would be to the left of England's. This will likely lead to the collapse of the Union and further emotional, political and economic carnage.

The Tories will win the next election. The democracy of this is not the issue but I am weary and tired of existing under Governments that I am ideologically opposed to. The EU offer a level of protection from worst excesses of the Tory party, who continue to drift to the right in general (although I do believe, if he has any actual principles left, that Johnson is, at least socially to the left of the Tory party) and the prospect of being subjected to the whims of venture capitalist, welfare state dismantling Empire nostalgists is terrifying.
 

sammsky1

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How could tories push for election when they don’t have a majority to win a vote?

 

sammsky1

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By a Vote of No Confidence. Which is most likely scenario now.
VONC in themselves?

What if opposition unite to have confidence in them? Yeah that’s stupid, as hard BrExit on 31st would have been avoided.

I’d prefer a 2nd referendum than a GE, but I guess that’s fair enough.
 

OohAahMartial

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A No 10 source tells the BBC: "If Parliament votes again for delay by voting down the programme motion, and the EU offers delay until 31 January, then we will pull the bill".

"There will be no further business for Parliament and we'll move to an election before Christmas, if necessary by a vote of no confidence, if the Fixed Term Parliaments Act fails.

"We won’t waste further months with this Parliament trying to waste 2020 on referendums on Brexit and Scotland".
 

narnar

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VONC in themselves?
I've seen that this is a possibility. Maybe I'm not nuanced enough in political goings on bit how can you call a vote of no confidence in yourself and expect people to vote for you? Or why would you vote a government back into power that has called a vote of no confidence in itself?
 

sammsky1

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I've seen that this is a possibility. Maybe I'm not nuanced enough in political goings on bit how can you call a vote of no confidence in yourself and expect people to vote for you? Or why would you vote a government back into power that has called a vote of no confidence in itself?
They are confident that their vote bank would understand they did so to regain a working majority, to get their agenda through.

But risky as then BrExit party comes into play, potentially splitting their vote.
 

Smores

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The only way they can force it is to resign his government but i imagine that won't be necessary as Labour will agree to a GE once the election is secured
 

Pexbo

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By a Vote of No Confidence. Which is most likely scenario now.
It would be pretty crazy if Parliament votes to show confidence in Boris with the single objective of showing no confidence in Boris.
 

mancan92

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Wouldn't that then mean a 'no deal ' on the 31st Oct?

Wouldn't it be to late to do anything else and especially if Boris imitates Lord Nelson and puts the telescope to his blind eye, saying "what Extension signal", I see no signal"?

Surely it would be better to get the Bill passed, but with a shed load of Amendments, then the time limit factor acts the other way, cutting off the 31st deadline?
The EU isnt going to reject an extension so theres not going to be a no deal.
 

Rooney24

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Perhaps Boris doesnt want MPs running their eyes over this properly as he knows its a load of ablls so he prefers to pull it?

Then go for a GE, hope he gets a majority then bring it back and get it through that way?
 

sammsky1

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The prime minister is just flat out lying here on several accounts.
If Britain votes him back into power with a working majority in GE, then we deserve all the shit we’ll end up with over the coming years. All of it.

I’ll be off somewhere else ASAP!
 

Pexbo

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Perhaps Boris doesnt want MPs running their eyes over this properly as he knows its a load of ablls so he prefers to pull it?

Then go for a GE, hope he gets a majority then bring it back and get it through that way?
Listening to 5 live earlier and the editor for the Telegraph was on it.

  • He said that already this agreement already goes against Boris' claims and bluster about not paying the EU a penny and having more money to pour back into the country.
  • There is the initial divorce bill he has already surrendered to and on top of that there is a flexible payment of £10bn per year that we fail to come to a complete agreement and complete the exit process.
  • If everything goes smoothly, it's expected to take around 5 years to do this so it could be an additional £50bn when all is said and done.
  • He also said this number is a minimum because it's likely to rise as it's the same figure member states will be paying in and due to Brexit this figure is likely to rise and if it does the member states will expect us to match what they are paying and will vote to ensure we do (we will no longer have that vote or our veto rights).
  • This figure doesn't appear out of thin air so he will have to go to parliament to debate it and get their approval on this funding.
  • They will argue that we should not be handing over this money and will want to lead us head on towards a No Deal Brexit as that will once again be the default position and there will be agreements we will have to honour to avoid it.
 

Paul the Wolf

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The impression I've had since the start of this farce is that a lot of the UK, both Remain and Leavers, expect to have a FTA as part of the deal. A FTA is not a given because the UK will have left, will no longer be part of the EU and further more will not be the solution to the damage Brexit will cause and is also dependent on the EU agreeing to that FTA. Nor can you stop no deal which would be dependent on the EU continuing to give extensions.
 

finneh

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:lol: for feck sake man, all you can find me is an article from a pro-leave website?
I'd look at the content rather than the author (plus I spec. I've changed my views based on remain viewpoints so I'm unsure why the opposite couldn't be the case. For example I didn't realise that the way the UK apply EU Health and Safety laws is more to blame than the laws themselves. So whilst I believe that the EU laws are far too onerous, if the UK applied and policed them in a more relaxed way as many other EU countries do, then they would not be an issue. A few more succinct articles as below.

https://capx.co/the-cap-doesnt-fit-why-the-eus-farm-subsidies-are-ripe-for-reform/

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news...-to-our-continent-african-farmers-to-eu-63989

https://euobserver.com/environment/137407

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/05/17/how-the-eu-hurts-the-worlds-poorest/

Essentially the CAP and general trade policy has been responsible for:
  • Subsidising EU farmers giving them an unfair advantage over African competitors, providing finance for EU companies to invest in new technologies to increase productivity at the expense of African farmers who should have had this opportunity
  • Historic subsidising of the exporting of food to African countries, meaning the indigenous population were unable to compete and therefore EU food reliant, rather than self reliant. The EU systematically used taxpayer monies to put African farmers out of business at a time when the latter were competitive.
  • Cynical and exploitative trade policies whereby cheap and unprofitable non value added goods are subject to no tariff barriers (to the benefit of EU large business who require the cheap labour), but processed goods are subject to high tariffs. This means the raw materials are bought in cheap with little margin for the African producer, but then processed in the EU allowing large manufacturers with powerful lobbyists to profiteer. This exploitative trade policy is disguised as "free trade", when it is anything but.
  • General import tariffs and regulations lobbied by large EU companies to create a financial barrier and financial disparity for trade
If you wanted to look at cynical tariffs you can do so on this link. Often the raw materials are low tariff or tariff free (allowing EU companies to buy cheap raw materials that do not come from the EU) whereas goods produced from it are subject to higher tariffs (as these are processed into other goods the EU). https://madb.europa.eu/madb/euTariffs.htm

If the best response to this is "Britain would be just as bad if not worse", then I disagree simply because of the composition of the UK economy (we don't process raw materials like many of our EU neighbours... We buy them pre-processed from the EU). Not only that but the more local and therefore accountable the government is the easier it is for people to effect change.

I can see this stemming into hours of back and forth though since this forum seems to believe that the EU is without reproach. However I'd implore anyone to look at the damage caused to particularly African industry over the last 55+ years by EU policy on subsidies/tariffs and the countless lives and livelihoods ruined as a result to the benefit of mostly wealthy white Europeans. However EU trade and agriculture policy and its repercussions on the third world are off topic so any further debate should occur via PM.
 

DFreshKing

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The EU isnt going to reject an extension so theres not going to be a no deal.
Will the EU grant the extension as requested though? If they do not then that entails negotiation which the PM has ruled out. The the only option would be to revoke and considering the timetable for parliament is full until the 31st they wont have time. If they do accept as given, the Government will play for an election and i'm not sure how labour could avoid if delay has been achieved. Then the Brexit parties get in anyway. The torie's have played an exceptional hand here, they are going to somehow come out looking like the people's champions and their biggest threat could well be the brexit party and their simple 'clean break' strategy. The big mistake remainer's have made is to go the deplorable (demonize) route on leavers to make it practically impossible for leavers to consider labour or lib dems in any way. A lot of people to throw under the bus......
 

Fingeredmouse

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That's rich coming from you :lol:
You did just claim that the Nazis were socialist which is about as sensible as claiming the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is democratic.
And who doesn't love the Marx brothers. Just to avoid confusion Karl Marx wasn't one and Zeppo had nothing to do with lighters.
 

sammsky1

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Why are some douchbag Labour MPs not supporting Comrade Corbyn on his wish to vote down the 2nd reading of the bill?! Pftt.
 
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Sweet Square

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Maticmaker

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Why are some douchbag Labour MPs not supporting Comrade Corbyn on his wish to vote down the 2nd reading of the bill?! Pftt.
Suspect its because a number of douchbag Labour MPs, Brexit not withstanding, have been living under the threat of deselection anyway, even before this latest charade. So now the gloves are off and they can vote as their constituents did on Brexit, presumably believing they will at least have a chance of getting back in at the next GE as 'Labour for Leave' or even perhaps Brexit Party MP's.

In essence they will now see themselves as being 'fire proof; hence' no whips threats can affect them now, they are already beyond that effectively as Labour PMs they are now on 'death row', at least as far as certain sections of the Labour party is concerned.

Jeremy has been repeatedly warning his party not to shoot themselves in the foot and now he's so close to a GE, he must be tearing his hair out!