SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

fallengt

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We also didn't have antibiotics for secondary bacterial infections that would have occurred, nor the medical infrastructure. If we were to have an Spanish flu today, I think the mortality rate would be much lower than 2-3% of 1917.
Spanish flu was influenza type A(H1N1), Swine flu is also H1N1. And 2009 flu had lower fatality rate.

Viruses only need few months to evolve so it's hard to predict how will it behave. 2003 SARS corona had low mutation rate, we don't know about current 2019 Corona. Vaccines that they produce now might not work in few months, so the best way to prevent virus to re-occur is still decease control (Quarantine and such).
 

Di Maria's angel

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So what's the story with how this plays out then?

Im not a medical mind at all.
How does this kind of thing go away?
Does it go away ?
Does it become a flu type thing that just remains a risk?
Is it going to get stronger and wipe out half the planets population?
Is it only a death risk for really sick old people?
People develop immunity and vaccines help in doing so.
No.
Risk should decrease.
No.
Yes and No.
 

fallengt

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So what's the story with how this plays out then?

Im not a medical mind at all.
How does this kind of thing go away? If we fully isolate it, the virus will disappear but doubt it. The covid-2019 is a genetic variation of 2003 SARS-corona
Does it go away ? Might or might not. See above
Does it become a flu type thing that just remains a risk? Covid-2019 is not a flu and yes, it's always a risk because viruses evolve all the time.
Is it going to get stronger and wipe out half the planets population? New Capcom's video game title ?
Is it only a death risk for really sick old people? A risk for people with weak immune system.
 

MikeUpNorth

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I feel the great unknown here is the potential for reinfection, and whether the virus will use a form of antibody-dependent enhancement to be much more fatal the second (or third or fourth) time round (and make an effective vaccine much more unlikely). I have seen some whisperings in the scientific community that this could be the case given the type of virus we're dealing with, but we don't yet know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
 

DVG7

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i wish people would stop going on about how the flu is more deadly. They don’t put entire cities on lockdown for the flu, and not nearly enough is known about this virus. I do think that the main concern for a lot of people is the potential for it to shut down cheap labour factories in quarantined towns/cities, bringing production to a halt for a lot of big companies.
 

11101

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Singapore is over 30 and kwait and hong kong over 20. But yes, a corona type virus doesn't fare well on hot weather. But the first wave of flu was in spring and it went down a lot in cases on summer but what was devastating, was the winter after when surged with virulence killing millions
<100 isn't a massive amount in Singapore in such a dense city with a huge Chinese population, and it isn't actually that hot in Kuwait and Hong Kong at this time of year.
 

ChrisNelson

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Isn't the number of confirmed new cases in China now dropping? Surely that's a good sign?

I don't think the media are helping, yes it's serious and needs dealing with but they are inciting panic by the way they are reporting it.

There needs to be encouragement to remain calm, try and get on with life as normal until you receive instructions from local health experts.

All they're doing is blowing it up so they have another story to report - empty shelves in all of the supermarkets.
 

Di Maria's angel

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Isn't the number of confirmed new cases in China now dropping? Surely that's a good sign?

I don't think the media are helping, yes it's serious and needs dealing with but they are inciting panic by the way they are reporting it.

There needs to be encouragement to remain calm, try and get on with life as normal until you receive instructions from local health experts.

All they're doing is blowing it up so they have another story to report - empty shelves in all of the supermarkets.
Yup. Mass panic across the media but no ones talking about the fact that the number of new cases in China has barely increased this week.
 

SilentWitness

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Steve Bruce has banned handshakes at the Newcastle training ground.
 

Ady87

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I work for a large UK telco and we're out of iPhone 8's and 11 Pro's and, for the first time in my experience, we don't have a date for getting them in and it's officially due to Covid-19.
 

Di Maria's angel

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I work for a large UK telco and we're out of iPhone 8's and 11 Pro's and, for the first time in my experience, we don't have a date for getting them in and it's officially due to Covid-19.
Work for a tech company. Whilst I haven't seen drops in stock, we're not receiving many orders at this moment.
 

Dante

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I work for a large UK telco and we're out of iPhone 8's and 11 Pro's and, for the first time in my experience, we don't have a date for getting them in and it's officially due to Covid-19.
The real victims of this pandemic are the smug hipsters who won't be able to show off their new iPhones.
 

Skills

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I feel the great unknown here is the potential for reinfection, and whether the virus will use a form of antibody-dependent enhancement to be much more fatal the second (or third or fourth) time round (and make an effective vaccine much more unlikely). I have seen some whisperings in the scientific community that this could be the case given the type of virus we're dealing with, but we don't yet know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
It almost feels like the genies out of the bottle now. We haven't managed to eradicate flu because it keeps mutating and coming back. If it's the same with this and it keeps mutating (even if it necessarily doesn't become more fatal), we're quite fecked because it can be killing 2-3% of infected people year on year.
 

Smores

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Yup. Mass panic across the media but no ones talking about the fact that the number of new cases in China has barely increased this week.
I think those figures have to be treated with some scepticism at this point. The party took direct control encouraged everyone back to work to halt economic decline and suddenly there's a huge drop off in new cases.

It's possible the draconian measures have halted the spread there. Issue with that is we won't see those kind of measures elsewhere.
 

Ady87

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Work for a tech company. Whilst I haven't seen drops in stock, we're not receiving many orders at this moment.
The real victims of this pandemic are the smug hipsters who won't be able to show off their new iPhones.
I work in the Corporate sector so I don't know if Consumer have their own stocks but we do them in large volumes for profitable customers so it would indicate it's a big issue. iPhone XS is depleted too but not sure what stock we can get our hands on. Hipsters might still have some options yet!

Not sure if it's related but the Samsung S10 Lite and the Note 10 Lite have both been delayed. Don't know where Samsung operate and if it's got anything to do with the outbreak or just usual delays!
 

balaks

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The real victims of this pandemic are the smug hipsters who won't be able to show off their new iPhones.
Even more shocking for them is that NHS staff with beards are being advised to shave them off as it means the face masks don't fit correctly. Hipster's will be fainting with shock all over the place.
 

Di Maria's angel

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I think those figures have to be treated with some scepticism at this point. The party took direct control encouraged everyone back to work to halt economic decline and suddenly there's a huge drop off in new cases.

It's possible the draconian measures have halted the spread there. Issue with that is we won't see those kind of measures elsewhere.
The 2nd sentence is true. A complete lockdown is the best way of stopping its spread.
 

senorgregster

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It almost feels like the genies out of the bottle now. We haven't managed to eradicate flu because it keeps mutating and coming back. If it's the same with this and it keeps mutating (even if it necessarily doesn't become more fatal), we're quite fecked because it can be killing 2-3% of infected people year on year.
It's a positive strand RNA virus. They love to mutate. Bit surprised the caf doesn't have a resident virologist. They'd be able to tell us a lot more.
 

MikeUpNorth

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It almost feels like the genies out of the bottle now. We haven't managed to eradicate flu because it keeps mutating and coming back. If it's the same with this and it keeps mutating (even if it necessarily doesn't become more fatal), we're quite fecked because it can be killing 2-3% of infected people year on year.
It might not even need to mutate to become gradually more fatal with subsequent infections.
 

Rhyme Animal

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The 2nd sentence is true. A complete lockdown is the best way of stopping its spread.
Indeed. As me and you have been saying for ages - just fecking lock it down to slow it down and allow the healthcare services some fecking relief of pressure.

It's so decadent, greedy and short sighted to be talking about stocks falling, 'inconvenience to travelers' etc. It's like watching a technologically advanced version of the Easter Islands situation!

It's like people have lost touch with what actually matters...
 

11101

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It's a positive strand RNA virus. They love to mutate. Bit surprised the caf doesn't have a resident virologist. They'd be able to tell us a lot more.
They do, but whatever it mutates to won't be the same disease anymore. It may be more or less deadly, but thankfully the more deadly a virus is, the less capable it is of spreading.
 

Di Maria's angel

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Indeed. As me and you have been saying for ages - just fecking lock it down to slow it down and allow the healthcare services some fecking relief of pressure.

It's so decadent, greedy and short sighted to be talking about stocks falling, 'inconvenience to travelers' etc. It's like watching a technologically advanced version of the Easter Islands situation!

It's like people have lost touch with what actually matters...
Exactly feck the fecking economy. Whats the point in my money if I might not be alive to utilise it?
 

RobinLFC

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Indeed. As me and you have been saying for ages - just fecking lock it down to slow it down and allow the healthcare services some fecking relief of pressure.

It's so decadent, greedy and short sighted to be talking about stocks falling, 'inconvenience to travelers' etc. It's like watching a technologically advanced version of the Easter Islands situation!

It's like people have lost touch with what actually matters...
I won't pretend that I know the how or why about it, but I don't think it's that simple to shut the entire world down for two weeks altogether.

First of all, no one has that kind of power and it would need unanimity across the board from all world leaders. Second, the rich and healthy don't care about the poor and sick, as harsh as it sounds.
 

MikeUpNorth

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Indeed. As me and you have been saying for ages - just fecking lock it down to slow it down and allow the healthcare services some fecking relief of pressure.

It's so decadent, greedy and short sighted to be talking about stocks falling, 'inconvenience to travelers' etc. It's like watching a technologically advanced version of the Easter Islands situation!

It's like people have lost touch with what actually matters...
It's a balancing act. If you decide to completely shut down the economy for any significant period of time and induce a deep depression, many people will die from the economic consequences (look up the history of the Great Depression).
 

senorgregster

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They do, but whatever it mutates to won't be the same disease anymore. It may be more or less deadly, but thankfully the more deadly a virus is, the less capable it is of spreading.
Yeah, that's why I was comparing to the Spanish flu but I forgot about secondary infections causing so many deaths. What worries me the most about RNA viruses is there are already drug-resistant copies out there, even before the drug is developed. At least that was true with HIV and small molecule inhibitors. Vaccines may be a little different. Judging by the flu vaccine, I guess it will be the same scenario.