We are in a bad situation, but not because of that.
It is because the full swell of fear needed for containment hasn’t fully blossomed yet, and we’re headed straight into Spring Break, Easter, March Madness, etc.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
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It is because the full swell of fear needed for containment hasn’t fully blossomed yet, and we’re headed straight into Spring Break, Easter, March Madness, etc.
Wayyyyy to many people don’t give a feck about other folks around them.Tweet
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Wayyyyy to many people don’t give a feck about other folks around them.
I'd happily give it to Trump, Rush, Hannity and Mitch.
montpelier
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There already is.At least the US seems to be releasing large numbers of testing kits to the states this week. It'll be interesting to see if theres a surge in confirmed cases.
The number of new cases per day needs to peak and then it will start to fall.
You can draw a graph to produce a curve that will show the expected total number of cases and length of outbreak.
The Italy graph was looking horrific with a steeply climbing line. They want the climbing line to get shallower and flatten.
UK numbers have been increasing until today, most probably a blip.
Utdstar01
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Unfortunately, this is the world we live in.Wayyyyy to many people don’t give a feck about other folks around them.
montpelier
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Most people are either old or have old friends and relatives.
Won't somebody think of the old people. (all donations accepted)
Green_Red
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Some company called Mesoblast apparently has some stem cell drug that has cured 7 people in China.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/cantor-update-mscs-and-covid-19.5266324/
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/cantor-update-mscs-and-covid-19.5266324/
Steerpike
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it's not so much what summer does to the virus, although Coronavirus does tend to thrive better in cold damp conditions, it's that the better weather improves the outcomes for people who do get infected (symptoms tend to be less severe, and the illness has a shorter duration).Unless of course, the summer doesn't do anything to the virus. It affected its closest cousin (SARS) a bit, and it just didn't affect its second cousin (MERS) at all (in fact, MERS originated in Saudi Arabia during the summer when it is over 40 C). And then we get 20-60% of the world population infected, tens of millions dying (more die if there is not adequate medical support, which won't be if the numbers get high). And the businesses will be crippled with that many sick people.
I think a lot of people are missing the point, and having a fundamental problem of not understanding exponential functions. Yes, at the moment the risk of dying (or even getting sick) is very low. Heck, you're more likely to die from flu (it kills 400k per year or 100 times more than this virus). But the number of infected people is growing exponentially. It took 3 months to reach 100k, it would take 6 days from now to reach 200k, 12 days to reach 400k, and a month to reach 1 million people. 3 months to reach one billion. Of course, it is not gonna be like this thanks to the massive efforts of China who bought a lot of time to the world, but in other countries, it is still going exponentially, and that is extremely worrying.
Even a very optimistic scenario is saying that 20% of people will get it (the forecasts are saying 20-60%), and if we assume a mortality rate of 0.65% (South Korea), that kills 10m people (as much as flu would kill for the next 30 years). The death rate will be higher, cause the medical system won't be able to support these many people. If we go for the worst-case scenario (60% infected, the mortality rate of 3.5%, like WHO is saying) then 160 million people are gonna die from it within the year. That is more than in both world wars combined.
No panic, just another flu, we will get used to it, and I hope that my stocks don't lose value!
I do understand the exponential nature of these infections (e.g. each infected person passes the virus on to 4 more, and then those 4 do likewise etc.). The reality is that, in a fairly short space of time, almost everybody is likely to be exposed to this virus, and this will happen irrespective of the precautions we take. The precautions will slow down the spread, but not stop it. If history is a guide, the infection rate is unlikely to go beyond about 20%, many of whom will be undiagnosed (either because they are asymptomatic, or the symptoms are mild and resemble a cold). If an effective vaccine is ready before next winter, the infection rate may be lower.
The mortality rate will most likely be between 1-2% - the figures in Italy look higher because most cases which don't result in a serious illness aren't being diagnosed. So we may be looking at 0.4% (2% of 20%) of the world's population dying as a result of this virus, so around 31 million. That's a big figure, but it still represents just 0.4% of the population, and the deaths will be skewed towards older and sicker people.
The virus will gradually lose its potency as the surviving population develops resistance to it, and the virus itself evolves.
You need to give it to Pence too. Did you watch the briefing?I'd happily give it to Trump, Rush, Hannity and Mitch.
It seemed to me that Pence was deflecting everything either to Trump above or to the doctors below (who I can almost guarantee are willingly setting themselves to be scapegoats for this shit).
He must be secretly hoping Trump dies from it.
mariachi-19
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USA is fecking fecked. Jesus christ this should be free for everybody at the moment.And people are being deterred from getting tested because of the cost.
If there ever was a perfect storm for Sanders and universal health care...
No kidding. If you’re positive and quarantined, you could be looking at 5 figures on the bill.USA is fecking fecked. Jesus christ this should be free for everybody at the moment.
If there ever was a perfect storm for Sanders and universal health care...
This was the bill for someone who tested positive for the flu...
https://qz.com/1809382/us-health-care-costs-could-help-coronavirus-spread/At least one American has already incurred hefty bills for seeking treatment for what he feared might be a coronavirus infection. When he developed flu-like symptoms after returning to Miami from a work trip to China, Osmel Martinez Azcue took himself to Jackson Memorial Hospital for testing. He asked for a flu test instead of the CT scan hospital staff wanted to conduct.
The flu test came back positive. Two weeks later, Azcue received an insurance claim for $3,270. His portion: $1,400.
Redplane
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I've pretty much come to the conclusion that nothing will change at least as long as the boomers are still in charge. Good health insurance =earned privilege-->feck everyone else. Says the generation who could afford cars and homes on cashier jobs, incurred little to no college debt, and had pension plans and rich healthcare plans everywhere. Because all of that was earned and everyone else is just bitching. And if one of em has barely anything in old age - well then just look at the next poor schmuck "below" you, say the same thing and God bless America. /rantUSA is fecking fecked. Jesus christ this should be free for everybody at the moment.
If there ever was a perfect storm for Sanders and universal health care...
Similar. A work colleague has just told me that his roommate came back from Milan 2 weeks ago and is now showing symptoms. After berating him for not self isolating, I checked to see what I need to do now and all the advice is basically "nah don't bother doing anything until you yourself are doubled over with symptoms".So I was on a floor in my office 2 days after someone on it apparently was sent home with symptoms and later confirmed.
So I looked at the online form on NHS 111 to determine if I need to do anything.
Effectively going through the questions that the criteria they are setting to even get in touch with 111, let alone get tested, are ridiculous.
I am now convinced that there are many cases out there which are going undetected. Even if someone has all the symptoms, you won’t be asked to change anything unless you’ve either a) been to a select list of countries (fair enough) or b) have been in close proximity to someone with it. The latter is what’s concerning me. The criteria for that are along the lines of touching bodily fluid of someone confirmed, being within 2 metres for 15+ minutes, etc...
I’m fully cognisant that they need to be really selective to not overload the healthcare system but the things that struck me most were that a) it doesn’t advise self isolate, instead implicitly stating carry on as normal (which is wrong and inconsistent messaging to what the government is saying and b) I feel the criteria they are setting is so hardline that I think the bar is too high.
Issue I have with it is the combination of the above is effectively significant increasing the risk of transmission.
If the roommate has it then the colleague probably had it and I likely have it.
izec
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feck me, what a shitty situation. Not surprised it went down the shitter here in Europe, but still, once you realise it, it is a different feeling. Will be complete chaos til the summer. At least climate change bringing in hot temperatures could be good for something.
Organic Potatoes
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No, it is cold dry conditions (i.e. Winter) in which these viruses typically thrive.it's not so much what summer does to the virus, although Coronavirus does tend to thrive better in cold damp conditions, it's that the better weather improves the outcomes for people who do get infected (symptoms tend to be less severe, and the illness has a shorter duration).
It won’t be ready by all accounts in that timeframe, certainly not in a manner to effectively prevent transmission on a wide scale. You’re talking rubbish.If an effective vaccine is ready before next winter, the infection rate may be lower.
Dancfc
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Milan Malpensa were doing temperature checks at the point they had less cases than the UK and look how well that turned out.That interview with the Culture of Sec just shows how unprepared and complict this government are.
No checks on multiple flights from the quarrantine zone in Italy on arrival in the UK and expecting the cabin crew to diagnose corono
Baffling.
And almost irrelevant. Even the fatality rate isn't that important (apart from the poor sods who die). They key things are that it is a new virus with no natural immunity (yet), not treatment and no vaccine (maybe a year, maybe never). Of the people who it 7-10% need to be hospitalised, of those hospitalised 5% require an ICU bed for (days? weeks?). This means that most heath services will be overwhelmed if only 1 or 2% of the population get the virus at any one time.Agreed. The media's goal is to sell a story and keep us hooked. Reporting positive stuff about the vast majority who have recovered is boring and not exciting enough to sell. Who wants to listen to folks talk about them having a cold. Hence all the drama and focus on the negative.
This is why we need to try to stop or slow the spread. Overwhelmed health services cause the most panic in a way we haven't seen yet.
Winter isn't dry in a lot of places, in Lancashire it's incredibly damp, humid and wet. It's good for spinning cotton though, made our fortune from that.No, it is cold dry conditions (i.e. Winter) in which these viruses typically thrive.
It won't be.If an effective vaccine is ready before next winter, the infection rate may be lower.
Even if we develop one, and there is no assurance that we will, it won't be developed, trialed, approved, manufactured on a large enough scale and distributed sufficiently by next winter. No way.
The Boy
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https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51714162/how-i-recovered-from-coronavirus-and-isolationThere seems to be a lot of sensationalism in the media. Has anyone noticed that they haven't really interviewed anyone after they've recovered? It's because they seem to be more interested in reporting the bad than the positive.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/07/coronavirus-cruise-ship-couple-reunited-orig-acl.cnn
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-survivor-in-china-recounts-fear-confusion
https://news.sky.com/story/fighting...itish-sufferers-describes-his-ordeal-11950631
There’s a lot of sensationalism in your post
In addition, the number of fatalities will be much higher if the Health system is overwhelmed, there aren’t enough beds, not enough doctors and nurses, not enough medicine, there aren’t enough oxygen masks and so on. It could easily be the difference between 0.5% mortality rate, and 3% mortality rate, which could be the difference between tens of millions of people dying or not.And almost irrelevant. Even the fatality rate isn't that important (apart from the poor sods who die). They key things are that it is a new virus with no natural immunity (yet), not treatment and no vaccine (maybe a year, maybe never). Of the people who it 7-10% need to be hospitalised, of those hospitalised 5% require an ICU bed for (days? weeks?). This means that most heath services will be overwhelmed if only 1 or 2% of the population get the virus at any one time.
This is why we need to try to stop or slow the spread. Overwhelmed health services cause the most panic in a way we haven't seen yet.
The most important part now is to slow down the spread of the disease, even if eventually the accumulated number of affected people is the same.
Withnail
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There's a huge amount of traffic between northern Italy and China due to the textile industry.So is London, to be fair. Which is why I think it's likely the virus has been here for weeks under the radar.
In 2018 there were 3m visitors from China to Italy whereas it was only 300k for the UK.
I think we'll all be looking at social avoidance school closures etc soon enough in any case to slow this thing down so the respective health services can cope.
I hadn't realised the no immunity in the population bit which accounts for a much higher infection rate then another variant of flu, for example.
I still don't understand why everyone's stock piling jax roll and pasta though.
Organic Potatoes
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It will be in most places due to the volume water vapor contained in air based on temperature.Winter isn't dry in a lot of places, in Lancashire it's incredibly damp, humid and wet. It's good for spinning cotton though, made our fortune from that.
But this isn’t a place for a relative vs absolute humidity discussion...
What should you be taking if you have symptoms? Does anything help at all?
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson
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Another reminder. This man is President of the United States.
No... honestly.
I thought that video was so awesome that I looked a bit into this guy. His curriculum is certainly the sort of one I would expect from one of the best prepared persons to understand this.
It's pure conjecture but I see this happening a bit everywhere and it gives me hope. Top notch doctors from this field are so tired of watching our governments fail at so many steps that they are taking the conversation to the public, probably after having exhausted more direct means of communication with the politicians.
He's a brilliant communicator and summarizes everything very well. He is also extremely careful with every single word he says, which make almost all of his statements very hard to contest.
Compare that with someone lile this guy:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_S._Fauci
An immensely famous doctor who I just saw behaving like an idiot at the hands of Mike Pence. He knows everything. But he's politically compromised. We need people from outside politics to take the reins.
This may explain things like Italy today finally taking a major step. And Portugal.
Charlie Foley
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Planning on flying home to Ireland in May. Starting to look less and less likelyQantas has cut a quarter of international flights. Airlines are going to go bust.
Why do i always read the fecking replies. Its soul destroyingTweet
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Another reminder. This man is President of the United States.
No... honestly.
Appropriate tagline is appropriateWhy do i always read the fecking replies. Its soul destroying
Green_Red
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entropy
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I’d worry more about the using of prisoners like slave labour.And giving prison inmates enough alcohol to make 100,000 gallons of hand sanitiser is going to end really well.
Withnail
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Not much reallyWhat should you be taking if you have symptoms? Does anything help at all?
The internet's have me the following:
Rest and sleep
Keep warm
Drink plenty of liquids
Use a room humidifier or take a hot shower to help ease a sore throat and cough
I presume the usual ibuprofen if you're in pain or have a slight fever.
Interestingly enough, the 13th Amendment actually allows for that.I’d worry more about the using of prisoners like slave labour.