SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

17 Van der Gouw

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

Probably based on 81% being mild disease.
My doctor friend hates it when I ask him medical questions off the record, so I promise I won't quote you on this - but is there any information on how 'mild' a mild case is deemed to be?

Are we talking bed-bound, feeling like shit for a few days?

I guess as with as with all things, the severity will vary between patients.
 

One Night Only

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We are able to go to work. Home office is recommended but if not possible we can go to work. Shops (except pharmacy and grocery stores) restaurants and bars are closed, all sport centres and events cancelled, so the largest part of the population will still do their job as usual but all other gatherings are forbidden.
Oh I'm all for a lockdown then!
 

stepic

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There is no guarantee that you will be one of those people who do not need treatment. COVID-19 is accompanied by serious respiratory (breathing) problems and that often requires hospitalization as opposed to "just flu". What is your "most people will not" claim based on? Do you have any data to back it up? It was anecdotal assumption some people were spreading early on, in the days of "it's just like flu", but does actually data support your claim? The crisis in Italy indicates the opposite of what you are claiming.
The data suggests that one in five may need hospital treatment, with one in 20 needing critical care. Your post implied everyone who gets it will need hospital treatment which is just a flat out lie.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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It just oozes...'look at how upwardly mobile I am'.
He’s a fcuking PE teacher.

Physical
Education

and the lumpy gonad can’t understand the concept of ‘If I’m around nobody, I can’t catch anything’

Appreciate any teacher that has to do a job. To the fullest. But socialising right now, then going to school, is moronic.

I worry for people like that. If Boris told him a shitty arsehole was essential to beating Corona, he’d 100% stop wiping his arse.

Whopping thundercunts don’t know they’re born.
 

sullydnl

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Saw an Italian doctor on Sky saying they expect it to be another 7-10 days before they notice the effects of their lockdown.

Is that for all of Italy or just the part he's in? As in, were some parts effectively locked down prior to others? I can't remember the sequence of events.
 

JPRouve

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My doctor friend hates it when I ask him medical questions off the record, so I promise I won't quote you on this - but is there any information on how 'mild' a mild case is deemed to be?

Are we talking bed-bound, feeling like shit for a few days?

I guess as with as with all things, the severity will vary between patients.
Mild is supposed to be usual flu like symptoms or bad cold.
 

Revan

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My feeling is that the UK will start to follow the consensus soon. If you were a political strategist you’d be advising that. If the UK went it’s own way and got it wrong it would finish Boris’s government.
If the UK is the only government who had it wrong, there would be more consequences than just finishing a PM. For a start, Scotland will leave UK ASAP.

I fear (and thinking more, it is the only logical thing it comes to my mind), that the UK did simulations, thought and checked the numbers, and every scenario put them around the same number of fatalities. So, why delay the inevitable?

Anything else does not make sense. Going in lockdown tomorrow is worse than today, which is worse than yesterday. Not going in lockdown makes sense only if they are fully confident that there is nothing they can do.
 

Revan

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Saw an Italian doctor on Sky saying they expect it to be another 7-10 days before they notice the effects of their lockdown.

Is that for all of Italy or just the part he's in? As in, were some parts effectively locked down prior to others? I can't remember the sequence of events.
The first municipality that has been lockdowned, it hasn't have new cases for a few days.

I assume the effects he is talking about are country-wise.
 

DOTA

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What I don't understand is how the feck are people supposed to pay rent / mortgages / gas / leccy if none of us can goto work?
Arrangements will have to be made for those whose jobs have to be put on hold.
 

Skills

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Saw an Italian doctor on Sky saying they expect it to be another 7-10 days before they notice the effects of their lockdown.

Is that for all of Italy or just the part he's in? As in, were some parts effectively locked down prior to others? I can't remember the sequence of events.
Lombardy was locked down before the rest, then the lockdown was extended to the rest of the country.

The thing is, China started the lockdown in Hubei at 400 cases. And eventually reached 80k cases before it began to slow down. Italy started when there was a few 1000 confirmed cases.
 

Camy89

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My doctor friend hates it when I ask him medical questions off the record, so I promise I won't quote you on this - but is there any information on how 'mild' a mild case is deemed to be?

Are we talking bed-bound, feeling like shit for a few days?

I guess as with as with all things, the severity will vary between patients.
It's ok. I would classify mild as dry cough, feeling a bit under the weather that takes a few days to clear up. Maybe some muscle aches. Essentially not serious symptoms and you can still function normally on a day to day basis.
 

17 Van der Gouw

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It's ok. I would classify mild as dry cough, feeling a bit under the weather that takes a few days to clear up. Maybe some muscle aches. Essentially not serious symptoms and you can still function normally on a day to day basis.
Thank you. And all the very best in the coming months.
 

Fooza

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My feeling is that the UK will start to follow the consensus soon. If you were a political strategist you’d be advising that. If the UK went it’s own way and got it wrong it would finish Boris’s government.
You would think that, but then again it's Boris. They'll just hold up their hands and say they've got it wrong and many will still support him.
 

NewGlory

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

Probably based on 81% being mild disease.
Thank you, that was a great write-up.

Would you agree that while _mathematically_ 81% is "majority", in medical terms at least 20% requiring hospitalization is not negligible? How many of flu patients require hospitalization? Fair to say the number is orders of magnitude less than 20%?
 

Arruda

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Could I ask if you have any info on people taking Ace Inhibitors as I read a response in the BMJ stating Covid-19 possibly had a greater affect on patients prescribed these meds? Thanks
Please read this.

https://www.escardio.org/Councils/C...uxFBDsouLMufLKd4eASETC_jpLTjqJQsbQUtj70Zdsaj4
The Council on Hypertension strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual anti-hypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACEi or ARBs should be discontinued because of the Covid-19 infection.
 

cyberman

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And what if the opposite happens? Will that highlight Republicanism is dead etc
Probably not to be honest. Its the DUP thats on the slippy slope up here, not republicanism. Theyve used up their goodwill at this stage.
 

Classical Mechanic

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You would think that, but then again it's Boris. They'll just hold up their hands and say they've got it wrong and many will still support him.
I disagree. It’s a different order of magnitude here. People losing loved ones. I’m certain the NHS will be much better funded after this anyway.
 

Rooney24

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Saw an Italian doctor on Sky saying they expect it to be another 7-10 days before they notice the effects of their lockdown.

Is that for all of Italy or just the part he's in? As in, were some parts effectively locked down prior to others? I can't remember the sequence of events.
Northern Italy went into Lockdown a day Prior to the whole Country I think.
 

NewGlory

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But you are making out that if you do get the virus, you will require hospital treatment.
I didn't say that. I said the number of people who will require hospitalization is significantly higher than in the case of flu/common cold so people trying to proactively get sick just because they think they will survive it is a VERY BAD idea.
 

sullydnl

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Lombardy was locked down before the rest, then the lockdown was extended to the rest of the country.

The thing is, China started the lockdown in Hubei at 400 cases. And eventually reached 80k cases before it began to slow down. Italy started when there was a few 1000 confirmed cases.
I really don't get how the UK's maths works. Their plan would make way more sense to me if they were confident in their healthcare service's ability to cope in the short/medium term but how can they be? The numbers don't make sense with that kind of exponential growth.
 

Moiraine

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The Former and now again current CEO and founder is due to hints not a Trump-Fan.
And the majority owner of the company is a billionaire philantropist who said he would even stay in Germany, if he would have to pay 70/80% taxes, so probably no luck there.
What’s your point. If you could elaborate in the light of that tweet?
 
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If the UK is the only government who had it wrong, there would be more consequences than just finishing a PM. For a start, Scotland will leave UK ASAP.

I fear (and thinking more, it is the only logical thing it comes to my mind), that the UK did simulations, thought and checked the numbers, and every scenario put them around the same number of fatalities. So, why delay the inevitable?

Anything else does not make sense. Going in lockdown tomorrow is worse than today, which is worse than yesterday. Not going in lockdown makes sense only if they are fully confident that there is nothing they can do.
I think the worry is that even after a massive lockdown, this virus came to the World from just a few people. 2-3 people cases slipping through the net and it'll spread like wild fire again.

The number simulations you mentioned I think are the UK fully expecting that all scenarios lead to a massive proportion of the population contracting this virus, and feeding as many as possible into the NHS whilst it can handle it might just be the way to save most lives.
 

pratyush_utd

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One of the expert described containment as "trying to stop the wind". This made me think even if Italy and other countries in lockdown gets infection under control, what will happen when restrictions are lifted? Wouldn't the virus will start transmitting again? Since most cases are asymptomatic for a long period and in certain cases even test results were not able to get the infection status correctly, isn't lockdown just delaying the eventuality?
 

Skills

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I really don't get how the UK's maths works. Their plan would make way more sense to me if they were confident in their healthcare service's ability to cope in the short/medium term but how can they be? The numbers don't make sense with that kind of exponential growth.
It doesn't, it's why they're refusing to quantify what their idea of a "summer peak" is. If they ever revealed that planned figure and people realised the implications of it, there would be riots.

That shitty graph of delaying the peak only works when you don't put any numbers on it.
 

Dante

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What I don't understand is how the feck are people supposed to pay rent / mortgages / gas / leccy if none of us can goto work?
More than that.

We need to be able to keep shops stocked, food being produced, utilities running and medical professionals working (amongst other things).

I can understand why people think that the 'economy' should take second billing, but it's very much the backbone of everything we are as a civilised society. It's also why multiple or prolonged lockdowns are so undesirable.

When thousands of people lose their jobs, and hundreds of businesses fail, and millions of families are unable to pay for food, etc. the shit is going got hit the fan even more than it already has. Rioting and looting are real concerns.

A lockdown will happen. But it's the special one-hit weapon you use in a boss fight after you've taken their shield down. Do it to early or too late, and you lose it efficacy. Try it more than once and you leave yourself open to attacks.

This is a problem with two variables. C19 is one. The fabric of society is the other. It's why mathematicians telling epidemiologist/behavioural scientists what to do is so misguided (albeit well-meaning).
 
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NewGlory

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The data suggests that one in five may need hospital treatment, with one in 20 needing critical care. Your post implied everyone who gets it will need hospital treatment which is just a flat out lie.
One in five requiring medical treatment is still going to be devastating for the medical system, which is what they encountered in Italy and which is what my point was. The point was not to argue whether every single person requires hospitalization. Maybe you should save your anger for your government that is doing next to nothing to protect you/us, rather than fighting with me? Just a thought
 

Jippy

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UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2..._medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584304421

This is particularly concerning.



So we're not gonna bother with social distancing until its too late, and now we're not going bother with testing.

Is the government plan actually to kill off most of the elderly and the weak through negligence? What is this, a purge?
Silence the Waspi women for good.
 

Mr Pigeon

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UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2..._medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584304421

This is particularly concerning.



So we're not gonna bother with social distancing until its too late, and now we're not going bother with testing.

Is the government plan actually to kill off most of the elderly and the weak through negligence? What is this, a purge?
A couple of years from now we'll be expected to look at coronavirus in the same way that we do with the common cold. "Sorry boss, can't come in today because I've got coronavirus."

It'll just be the norm. Slowly we'll forget that it came about because of some guy eating a bat in a country that has had multiple natural warnings that their shitty food standards are dangerous, or because of neglectful pathogen boogeymen in a lab decided to release it and see what happens, or aliens, or sentient wasps. I don't know, I didn't really start paying attention to the cause of this until there was no more Andrex on the shelves.