SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Paxi]

Every time I see some clip of someone singing Nessum fecking Dorma I think how much I would want to kill anyone who started belting out 'none shall sleep' from their balcony first thing in the morning.

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Imagine that fecking racket? Thank God I don't live in a big city.

 

[Paxi]

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[Shane88]

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[Revan]

I don’t find this terrifying. I realise the implications around how it will spread the disease but it also underlined the potential that it’s actual mortality rate is a much lower, more digestible figure.

It cannot be much lower. The only 'data on vacuum' we have is from Diamond Princess. The mortality rate is 1%, with all the victims being over 70 years old. Half of the sick people did not show symptoms. Half, not 10 times as many seem to think.

Now the good part is that the age distribution is skewed. There are many old people there than normally in the world (around 17% of the infected people there were over 70 years old, compared to around 11% in the UK; only 10% were under 30 compared to 30.4% in the UK). So the most vulnerable category are overrepresented there, while the least vulnerable category is massively under-represented there. What is the real mortality rate is hard to know, but for sure it is lower. In South Korea, it is 0.7% and they are kings of the testing. In Bahrain is 0, and they have done even more testings. It is safe to assume that some people without symptoms (and so not detected) in South Korea exist. If I have to make a guess, I would say that the mortality rate in the wild is probably around 0.5%, maybe slightly lower.

Now the bad part, is that this assumes everyone who needs intensive care gets intensive care. Which won't happen unless there is a containment. If even 10% of the population gets infected within the year (in whatever distribution you model), the medical system totally collapses. It is near collapsing in Lombardy with only 15k cases or so. 10% of the population getting infected means that the number of cases increases 100 times. Let's assume uniform (totally impossible, but I want to be optimistic best case scenario), that is 160k cases per month. People are struggling now, in this best-case scenario, there is 1 ventilator for roughly 11 people. 1 might survive, the other 10 certainly die. This scenario is totally unrealistic, if there is no containment, it will get worse. Much worse. With Gaussian modelling, it is significantly worse (1 or 2 months when we need mass graves, followed by relatively few deaths).

What is the true mortality rate (no intensive care for everyone who needs it)? We cannot know now, but it is certainly over 0.5%, it is over 1%, and it might be over 3% estimated from WHO (in Italy currently it is 8% but that is overestimated, there are not enough tests going on). If the medical system collapses, the mortality rate converges to the number of people who needs ventilators (estimated to be around 5%). If we assume that half of the people do not show symptoms, then that number converges to around the number of WHO. Even if we assume that some people who might have it and show symptoms don't get tested, that number goes down, but not to 1%.

So, while it is true that in an ideal world when everyone who needs treatment gets it, the mortality rate is 0.5% (or lower), without medical support, it will be 1-5%. I think that WHO's estimate might be quite correct.

Data from Diamond Princess*: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html

* Since then, the number of infected has increased, but not the number of fatalities. There are still 15 people in critical conditions, so the mortality can increase.

 

[Paxi]

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[The Firestarter]

SARS, MERS, Codid-19 are Ebola have all originated in bats. fecking bats!

Kill all the fecking bats! Who knew that the Joker would be the true hero!

 

[Man of Steel]

Does anyone have any idea what we are going to do in future regarding travel? Will we still see the UK and other governments worldwide just allowing people to fly in untested/checked from countries who refuse to change their habits and standards regarding health and the animal markets and animal eating etc?

I'd be telling Chinese government and others to shape the feck up, or you'll only get access to the UK after testing and quarantining checks of people first before even flying.

This has to be the turning point surely for certain standards and practices to come into play worldwide, also with making sure we have all the medical things in place that we are short of now, and correcting the mistakes made. Get enough ventilators made etc and stored around the country, along with ourselves storing more food and gloves, masks etc in all our own homes.

We're just lucky that this virus isn't making all age groups seriously ill or we'd be buggered.

 

[jymufc20]

Just got back to the UK and I’m stunned by the difference in attitude. I expect it to spread much more over here than anywhere else in Europe.

I don't know where you are back from but I bet you have made a mistake by coming back.

 

[Jippy]

Does anyone have any idea what we are going to do in future regarding travel? Will we still see the UK and other governments worldwide just allowing people to fly in untested/checked from countries who refuse to change their habits and standards regarding health and the animal markets and animal eating etc?

I'd be telling Chinese government and others to shape the feck up, or you'll only get access to the UK after testing and quarantining checks of people first before even flying.

This has to be the turning point surely for certain standards and practices to come into play worldwide, also with making sure we have all the medical things in place that we are short of now, and correcting the mistakes made. Get enough ventilators made etc and stored around the country, along with ourselves storing more food and gloves, masks etc in all our own homes.

We're just lucky that this virus isn't making all age groups seriously ill or we'd be buggered.

So you want to quarantine all Chinese visitors indefinitely?

 

[Prometheus]

#IDontWantYourCoronaBoner

More corona pussy for me!

 

[DOTA]

So you want to quarantine all Chinese visitors indefinitely?

I think he's saying he wants the Chinese to stop their live animal markets, after this. Which, of course they fecking will.

 

[arnie_ni]

Not going into biology will be one of my regrets, bats are supposed to be carying all sorts of things and I would love to know what.

They are a protected species here for some reason. Anyone know why?

 

[Shez]

One of the expert described containment as "trying to stop the wind". This made me think even if Italy and other countries in lockdown gets infection under control, what will happen when restrictions are lifted? Wouldn't the virus will start transmitting again? Since most cases are asymptomatic for a long period and in certain cases even test results were not able to get the infection status correctly, isn't lockdown just delaying the eventuality?

Posted this earlier, but it’s a good way to grasp this. Happy with how we are handling it mainland Europe tbh after the escalation in Italy and Spain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[DOTA]

They are a protected species here for some reason. Anyone know why?

They are hugely important in pollination.

 

[Berbaclass]

They are hugely important in pollination.

Shikaka

 

[DOTA]

Shikaka

I like some of her work but the world cup song was a bit dull.

 

[Zlatan 7]

@Zlatan 7

You wanted me to say "you have too high (20%) probability of needing care" instead of "you will need care"? Would that make you happy? I think, in the context the difference is immaterial, but if that is what you want me to state - yes, i meant the former

Yes there’s enough scare mongering without you adding to it with numbered bullet points That you will require hospital if you catch it.

If it was just badly worded fair enough but I wasn’t the only one to take it that way

 

[Camy89]

Shikaka

Shikasa....aaahhhhhh! Shhhish kebab....shhhhhawshank redemption....SSHHHHICCAAGOOO

 

[JPRouve]

They are a protected species here for some reason. Anyone know why?

As far as I know they are crucial members of the ecosystem, the issue is that humans take too much space and we tend to put ourselves where we really shouldn't. And then there is probably someone somewhere who thinks that it's a good idea to eat raw bats because it will give him a mighty boner.

 

[Revan]

I think he's saying he wants the Chinese to stop their live animal markets, after this. Which, of course they fecking will.

They did not when SARS happened (which should have been the last wake-up call). Never underestimate societies behaving illogically and with irresponsibility.

And by societies, I mean the entire mankind. If 10% of the money spent on the military would have been invested in pandemic prevention, vaccine research and medical system in general, this would not have happened. It is also a disgrace that SARS-related vaccine research was stopped.

The only good thing is that nature was not too harsh on us. Imagine a virus as contagious as this but with the lethality of H5N1.

 

[DOTA]

They did not when SARS happened (which should have been the last wake-up call). Never underestimate societies behaving illogically and with irresponsibility.

And by societies, I mean the entire mankind. If 10% of the money spent on the military would have been invested in pandemic prevention, vaccine research and medical system in general, this would not have happened.

The only good thing is that nature was not too harsh on us. Imagine a virus as contagious as this but with the lethality of H5N1.

This isn't SARS.

 

[DOTA]

As far as I know they are crucial members of the ecosystem, the issue is that humans take too much space and we tend to put ourselves where we really shouldn't. And then there is probably someone somewhere who thinks that it's a good idea to eat raw bats because it will give him a mighty boner.

Yep. All this.

Bats are awesome. We are not.

 

[mav_9me]

Thing is, if I got sick from it or have previously already had it, I’d quite like to know! I’d be much less worried if day I have already got over

probably restaurants, bars, cafes, gyms closed and told to stay at home where possible whilst still being able to go to work if it’s not. All events cancelled of course. Social distancing if we go for walks etc. It’ll be a soft lockdown first. To be honest we should already be in that stage IMO

Yes I understand but when resources are limited, have to prioritize inpatients.

 

[Paxi]

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[Camy89]

Thing is, if I got sick from it or have previously already had it, I’d quite like to know! I’d be much less worried if day I have already got over

Fortunately, it's quite clear to know if you've got it/had it. It originated in the bat so people with COVID have been found to be sleeping upside down hanging from their curtain rails, they have a sudden penchant for either fruit or blood and constantly walk around making a weird clicking noise.

Symptoms usually resolve after 5 or so days.

 

[Revan]

This was good. I need some optimism and some calming video to look.

Already feel better, so going to play some video game.

 

[NewGlory]

Yes there’s enough scare mongering without you adding to it with numbered bullet points That you will require hospital if you catch it.

If it was just badly worded fair enough but I wasn’t the only one to take it that way

It's not fear-mongering. That one point you protested may have been poorly worded, but the main point of - we are in very serious and dangerous situation and people should not be trying to get intentionally sick, still stands.

@Camy89 may have worded the bottomline better than I did:

https://www.redcafe.net/threads/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-virus.452816/page-256#post-25409529

 

[hungrywing]

That’s only Korean stats, which are still not enough to make meaningful comparisons!

Edit: found it:

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As much as the article is interesting, as commentators point out, conclusions are being reached that omit important context. The data isn’t comparable to reach meaningful conclusions.

Now who's citing internet randos as sources.

Your post is your opinion, regarding 'important context' and 'meaningful conclusions'. As you pointed out earlier you're not a statistician. It kind of shows. I'm not saying that to insult. Only for the benefit of anyone who might be reading and potentially be misinformed. IIRC from when Arruda got a bit fed up with you, you work for the NHS?

Again, yes it is important to properly frame statistics. Could this be a unique artifact produced by the Korean **** only allowing members under forty and then holding a banquet where only those 20-35 were allowed to attend? Sure. Could it not be? Sure.

 

[Camy89]

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Whilst it's important to self-quarantine, this is just so OTT and tends to just cause mass hysteria/panic. I detest things like these.

 

[Sweet Square]

''Everything is going according to plan''

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[horsechoker]

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How old is the mother? It seems a tad dramatic considering that deaths are rare for under 60s.

It would have been better if he "I had to explain to my son that we're homeless because I had to choose between working or being sick"

 

[stepic]

Whilst it's important to self-quarantine, this is just so OTT and tends to just cause mass hysetria/panic. I detest things like these.

Yeah, he’s out there working so he literally needs people to not be quarantining completely in order to continue to make money to live and support his family. Yet then sobs because people aren’t quarantining. He doesn’t sound right in the head.

 

[Man of Steel]

So you want to quarantine all Chinese visitors indefinitely?

No, I didn't say that at all. I'm asking if anyone thinks that the world is going to demand an improvement in standards after where and how yet another virus or illness has started to cause a global pandemic.

 

[TMDaines]

Now who's citing internet randos as sources.

Your post is your opinion, regarding 'important context' and 'meaningful conclusions'. As you pointed out earlier you're not a statistician. It kind of shows. I'm not saying that to insult. Only for the benefit of anyone who might be reading and potentially be misinformed. IIRC from when Arruda got a bit fed up with you, you work for the NHS?

Again, yes it is important to properly frame statistics. Could this be a unique artifact produced by the Korean **** only allowing members under forty and then holding a banquet where only those 20-35 were allowed to attend? Sure. Could it not be? Sure.

Hungry, you are talking absolute horseshit here. I could be a toilet cleaner and equally qualified to talk about this. There’s no opinion in what I am stating and it is pre-university maths. You don’t need to be a statistician to appreciate that you cannot simply take the age distribution of COVID-19 cases in South Korea and those in Italy and plot them against each and make meaningful comparisons, when the testing practices and the population distribution in the countries differs widely.

There is a reason why crude rates are not used for comparisons between different populations. You have to standardise to account for the different population distributions – and will also need to account for the difference in testing protocols here. Here is a relatively simple guide:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3406211/

“Meaningful” is not a matter of opinion; it is a matter of whether something is statistically significant using standards recognised globally.

You are not doing anyone a public service for continuing to push this agenda. There will be plenty of people who have disagreed with me on matters in this thread, who will agree with me on this, including Arruda, I imagine.

 

[Skills]

''Everything is going according to plan''

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Allegedly, the company I work for is one of those that they've reached out to support/consult on manufacturing. Not really sure, how we can help.

 

[Paxi]

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[Man of Steel]

They did not when SARS happened (which should have been the last wake-up call). Never underestimate societies behaving illogically and with irresponsibility.

And by societies, I mean the entire mankind. If 10% of the money spent on the military would have been invested in pandemic prevention, vaccine research and medical system in general, this would not have happened. It is also a disgrace that SARS-related vaccine research was stopped.

The only good thing is that nature was not too harsh on us. Imagine a virus as contagious as this but with the lethality of H5N1.

Exactly. I'm hoping that after this a new global law and rules are introduced to keep checks on standards in all countries or farflung places, no matter where. As you say, how many wake up calls does mankind need.

 

[Camy89]

Allegedly, the company I work for is one of those that they've reached out to support/consult on manufacturing. Not really sure, how we can help.

Do you make vibrators and not ventilators? If so, I worry the Government have made a gross misjudgement.

 

[0le]

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I like that idea to be honest. Although people would still find ways around it (send their kids to get one and/or go different stores), it would certainly help.

 

[adexkola]

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He does come off as a massive drama queen to be fair.

Like, stay at home??