SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[0le]

They did not when SARS happened (which should have been the last wake-up call). Never underestimate societies behaving illogically and with irresponsibility.

And by societies, I mean the entire mankind. If 10% of the money spent on the military would have been invested in pandemic prevention, vaccine research and medical system in general, this would not have happened. It is also a disgrace that SARS-related vaccine research was stopped.

The only good thing is that nature was not too harsh on us. Imagine a virus as contagious as this but with the lethality of H5N1.

This is one issue with funding. It comes in waves and its the same for engineering as well.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

My city has banned all gatherings of more than 50 people. Wal-Mart, HEB, Publix, and other grocers have cut back on their opening hours.

Next apocalypse metric is Waffle House not staying open 24/7.

 

[Berbaclass]

Give it 3 weeks before the UK descends into a Mad Max type situation.

 

[hungrywing]

Hungry, you are talking absolute horseshit here. I could be a toilet cleaner and equally qualified to talk about this. There’s no opinion in what I am stating and it is pre-university maths. You don’t need to be a statistician to appreciate that you cannot simply take the age distribution of COVID-19 cases in South Korea and those in Italy and plot them against each and make meaningful comparisons, when the testing practices and the population distribution in the countries differs widely.

There is a reason why crude rates are not used for comparisons between different populations. You have to standardise to account for the different population distributions – and will also need to account for the difference in testing protocols here. Here is a relatively simple guide:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3406211/

“Meaningful” is not a matter of opinion; it is a matter of whether something is statistically significant using standards recognised globally.

You are not doing anyone a public service for continuing to push this agenda. There will be plenty of people who have disagreed with me on matters in this thread, who will agree with me on this, including Arruda, I imagine.

I'm not talking anything. Case in point, the post just contained the tweet. The point of the tweet was 'we need more testing'. No one made any claims or even mention of 'meaningful comparisons' except you in your desire to be 'right' or relevant.

Could be relevant, could be not. Whether anyone sees it and chooses to err on the safe side, good for them.

No one's pushing an agenda here except you frothing at the mouth that something that could be relevant is OMFG absolutely not. So, by all measures it's actually probably you that's not doing anyone a public service for pushing an agenda.

Again, the tweet is raw data. Maybe it's relevant to Europe, maybe it's not.

So if you really are for the public interest: take a deep breath, maybe offer illustrations on how such a statistic could be dangerously misleading in terms of potential behavior modifications.

EDIT: You know what, I'll do it. Bringing this up isn't exactly the greatest sign. It's not a bad sign at all, either. Just not really a great one.

Spoiler

For anyone perusing the thread and seeing the data in question and wondering 'Is that going to be true in Europe/UK/US, too?' What TMDaines is doing is trying to frame the data as making an argument and then arguing that no, not necessarily. Somewhat ironically he's right mostly for reasons he's not cited than the one really weak reason he did, and that in turn is not accounting for the possibility that he had the capacity to expound in more detail but simply chose not to. Tl:dr he's 'right' and that data could come from any number of reasons that mean nothing of the sort will happen anywhere else.

Country populations are different. They're genetically different. They eat different foods. They gather and interact differently. And those are just the big ways in which they're different. In this case one also must take into account things like where on 'the curve' this aggregate data were collected, what policies were in place at the time when the data slice was taken, what kind of test was used, etc. And that's before even looking at a mind-boggling myriad of potentially related factors (one can look at population statistics - or a lot of statistics - in incredibly fine detail, and that's one of the reasons why your data are so valuable) The data in the tweet says about 30% of South Korea's confirmed cases are aged 20-29. The comparison between that and Italy's data are being used to illustrate a potential 'blind-spot' in that Europe/UK/US aren't testing enough AKA we might be basing policy on inaccurate data. That is all.

ESPECIALLY don't rush ahead to assume omg 30% of everyone 20-29 is going to get infected. That is not what that data are saying. It's saying that in one particular country, out of all the infected, 30% are in this age group. By the exact same token, don't rush ahead and scream that OMG THESE ARE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES THAT DATA IS ABSOLUTELY STOOPID LOLOL. It's an interesting facet of data that comes from a large sample size comparable to other countries with similar sizes. The main reasons behind the spike could be as idiosyncratic as Korean people 20-29 happening to all flashmob for an entire week straight in defiance of a corrupt government deal with a pharmaceutical company. The reasons could be dietary. Or Italy's internal data could be showing something similar right now. All of those are besides the point of the tweet, which again, was "Is it wise to base policy off of incomplete data?"

Like Pexbo pointed out: could we use such data to adjust/solidify policy/strategy to better protect certain age groups over time/what does it mean for testing strategy? What, if anything, do we objectively gain from that data. And obviously it gets very complicated from there.

All that being said, if we come back to the argument that TMDaines perceived the tweet is making and the question of 'Is that going to happen here, too?', then the most potentially pertinent information to overlay on that particular statistic would be how many of them were asymptomatic. If a whopping majority of them were, particularly if they were at the time of testing, then it would be a very strong indicator that yes, something similar is happening/going to happen in Europe/US/UK during any similar phase of policy - AKA this narrative from experts about a lot of young people who 'feel fine' and didn't know they had it but were spreading it.

A lot of South Korea's data is coming from mass-surveillance: a big part of what they were/still are(?) doing was if Joe was infected and had gone to the theater/grocery store on Tuesday, the hairdressers on Wednesday, etc., the goverrnment used cellphone location data to contact EVERYONE who went to that theater/store/hairdresser within a certain timespan and then had them all tested. You do that and you are going to catch a vastly greater proportion of the asymptomatic carriers than you would otherwise. If people aged 20-29 tend to be asymptomatic over the course of the infection (or were when the data were collected) and in South Korea are more likely to be out in about in public places than 30-40 year olds with families, then you A) can absolutely get a 'meaningful' statistical distribution like the one in the tweet and barring some out-of-left-field factor, are B) likely going to see the same in any other country during a similar phase in policy.

And that folks is a rough illustration of how that data could turn out to be relevant here or in Europe/UK.

Anyone who's read this far, it's probably about time to wash your hands again. Also apologies. This is a drop in a bucket of a hugely complex issue. Most of the larger salient points are obvious.

For TMDaines' sanity's sake, I have edited the original post with some disclaimers. This is a trying time for all. Spread kindness where we can.

 

[4bars]

I think he's saying he wants the Chinese to stop their live animal markets, after this. Which, of course they fecking will.

No, they wont

 

[hungrywing]

I think he's saying he wants the Chinese to stop their live animal markets, after this. Which, of course they fecking will.

I think they already did.

Obviously it'll be driven underground, and as usual with these things, it'll take about a generation to completely die out providing they keep the pressure up.

 

[Lj82]

SARS, MERS, Codid-19 are Ebola have all originated in bats. fecking bats!

SARS was civet cat I remember

 

[sammsky1]

Very useful and up to date convid19 dashboard

https://ncov2019.live/data

How does India only have 119 cases? Very surprised/suspicious given population density of major cities, especially globally important ones like Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore.

 

[DOTA]

No, they wont

That's hugely out of date.

I think they already did.

Obviously it'll be driven underground, and as usual with these things, it'll take about a generation to completely die out providing they keep the pressure up.

We shall find out but the idea that the Chinese are somehow a hugely reckless nation that will think little of mass global death is not a serious one. I'm sure they will be making huge change.

 

[Carolina Red]

Hope that changes once we start ramping up test kit production.

Right before they said that they assured the state that we don't have a testing kit shortage... Ha! Right.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

Very useful and up to date convid19 dashboard

https://ncov2019.live/data

How does India only have 119 cases? Very surprised/suspicious given population density of major cities, especially globally important ones like Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore.

I imagine the lack of testing plays a part.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

Y'know, as well as causing deadly pandemics - what bothers me about those 'wet markets' is the conditions the animals are kept in.

I just watched the above video and I'm seething. How anybody could lack the humanity to keep a bear in a cage with no food or water in a hot, humid climate. Assholes.

 

[hungrywing]

That's hugely out of date.
We shall find out but the idea that the Chinese are somehow a hugely reckless nation that will think little of mass global death is not a serious one. I'm sure they will be making huge change.

Tinkering with the virus before the next release, eh.

Bad jokes aside, it's literally a part of their culture so it'll take time but one has to assume there are huge segments of the modernized/urbanized population who want to move past it.

Right before they said that they assured the state that we don't have a testing kit shortage... Ha! Right.

Can't have a shortage if we already have zero!

 

[hobbers]

Genuinely thought ransacked supermarkets wouldn't be so in vogue this far north, but no. Of course people up here are every bit as moronic, reactionary and selfish.

Even the fruit and veg was pillaged. In two different supermarkets. In Scotland. Nobody up here even eats "fruit" or "veg". What the feck is going on.

 

[Dumbstar]

I imagine the lack of testing plays a part.

Just read about heat resistance. Seems like the boffins are admitting UV from the sun (hot summer basically) can dry out the infectivity of any virus including possibly this one. Just checked and Pakistan is starting to get hot and sunny (34 degrees already) as I would imagine is most of India.

North Italy and Iran even now are surprisingly struggling to stay at 20 degrees. Ideal weather for serious infection spread?

 

[parkthebuslads]

Y'know, as well as causing deadly pandemics - what bothers me about those 'wet markets' is the conditions the animals are kept in.

I just watched the above video and I'm seething. How anybody could lack the humanity to keep a bear in a cage with no food or water in a hot, humid climate. Assholes.

If you believe it's any worst than the standard meat and dairy industry, you're in for a shock!

 

[Skills]

Just read about heat resistance. Seems like the boffins are admitting UV from the sun (hot summer basically) can dry out the infectivity of any virus including possibly this one. Just checked and Pakistan is starting to get hot and sunny (34 degrees already) as I would imagine is most of India.

North Italy and Iran even now are surprisingly struggling to stay at 20 degrees. Ideal weather for serious infection spread?

Singapore suggests otherwise.

 

[DOTA]

Tinkering with the virus before the next release, eh.

Bad jokes aside, it's literally a part of their culture so it'll take time but one has to assume there are huge segments of the modernized/urbanized population who want to move past it.

Lots of things are a huge part of our cultures. Many are already being sacrificed and many will be going forward. The world before this virus is not the world anymore.

 

[Ian Reus]

President of Peru just gave a national press conference.

The gist of it.

PERUVIAN STATE READY MESSAGE TO THE NATION. President Martín Vizcarra would ratify a State of Sanitary Emergency and Quarantine at the national level.
PERU IN QUARANTINE
Vizcarra government evaluates generalized quarantine to prevent advance of Covid-19 THESE WOULD BE THE MEASURES
Starting on Monday the 16th at 8:00 am, the state of emergency begins throughout the national territory. (Art. 116 CE) What will it consist of ?: -Limitation to freedom of movement. You can only go outside in the following cases:

● Acquisition of food or pharmaceutical products

● Assistance to health centers in cases of urgency or regarding the coronavirus

● Commuting to the workplace

● Return to your usual residence

● Travel to provide assistance and / or care for the elderly, minors, dependents or people with disabilities

● Moving to the bank

● Travel by vehicle to gas stations -All teaching activities at all levels are suspended. Employers and school authorities should facilitate non-contact work as much as possible.

The opening to the public of: ● Bars ● Nightclubs ● Party rooms ● Restaurants ● Concert halls ● Showrooms ● Theaters ● Gyms ● Soccer fields ● Sports facilities ● Pools ● Parks ● Gardens ● Fairs ● Verbenas ● Bullrings ● Terraces ● Zoos ● Children's facilities ● Retirement centers ● Etc etc

Only supermarkets, basic goods stores, pharmacies, tobacconists and banks may remain open.

-Any type of public transport with certain minimum limits is suspended.

-The authorities may intervene all the goods and companies necessary to supply and supply products and services to the population, both public hospitals, military or private sector, in order to collaborate and serve the majority of the citizenry. - IN ORDER TO SAFEGUARD THE GENERAL INTEREST, FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH ANY OF THESE MEASURES MAY LEAD TO FINES AND PENALTIES. The government will be able to request the collaboration of the armed forces in order to stop the spread of the pandemic and return to the normal situation.

Total lockdown.

 

[MDFC Manager]

Very useful and up to date convid19 dashboard

https://ncov2019.live/data

How does India only have 119 cases? Very surprised/suspicious given population density of major cities, especially globally important ones like Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore.

Nothing suspicious, just the first infections started late. The numbers are now doubling every ~3-4 days in line with what's happening elsewhere.

Fully expecting the doubling to continue.

 

[Man of Steel]

Genuinely thought ransacked supermarkets wouldn't be so in vogue this far north, but no. Of course people up here are every bit as moronic, reactionary and selfish.

Even the fruit and veg was pillaged. In two different supermarkets. In Scotland. Nobody up here even eats "fruit" or "veg". What the feck is going on.

Obviously they're using the fruit and veg as rare and special items to barter and swap for some deep fried bog rolls...

 

[Revan]

SARS was civet cat I remember

It came to humans from civet cat, but it jumped from bats to civet cat.

Also, SARS2 apparently came from some intermediate animal (probably pangolin).

 

[Dante]

Just read about heat resistance. Seems like the boffins are admitting UV from the sun (hot summer basically) can dry out the infectivity of any virus including possibly this one. Just checked and Pakistan is starting to get hot and sunny (34 degrees already) as I would imagine is most of India.

North Italy and Iran even now are surprisingly struggling to stay at 20 degrees. Ideal weather for serious infection spread?

Your post prompted me to do a bit of research into the recent weather of C19 hotbeds like Milan/Madrid versus places like Germany (where the CFR is extraordinarily low).

This is the weather for Milan in February: low rainfall
This is the weather for Madrid in February: low rainfall
This is a precipitation graph for Germany over the last year, but inclusive of February: high rainfall

What's stark is that Madrid and Milan have been pretty much bone dry, whereas Germany has seen huge amount of rainfall. Could that be the reason that Spain and Italy have been hit so hard, but the Krauts haven't?

If rain/air humidity does turn out to be a blocker for the transmission of C19, the UK might actually stand a chance. I'll have never wanted a shitty British summer so badly in my life.

Singapore in February breaks the trend of low rainfall meaning high infection rates: low rainfall but high temperatures

They've had almost no rain and concurrently almost no infection spread. But on the other hand, Singapore is also famously humid (being a small island nation at the equator). So who knows? The high temperatures might have also played a part. For Pakistan's sake, I hope heat does indeed help.

This article I found suggests that using a humidifier might help against the airborne transmission of flu: (advice on cold/flu) so there is some precedence.

Disclaimer: I'm making totally uneducated guesses here. Please don't go out and buy a humidifier based on this brain dump of a post.

 

[Wibble]

Im head of PE at a very large primary school and myself, and my Pe team who are all self employed, plus the 40-50 staff and 800 + children will be in as normal tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. I’ve just actually had a roast and few drinks in a local pubs alongside a lot of the parents. Luckily we live and work in a very likeminded area, not mass panic. People doing as they’re told and getting on with it whilst getting on with life too.

Not for long unless the UK does go down the insane path of aiming for herd immunity through mass infection. It is a huge deal to close schools as I doubt wholesale online teaching is scaleale across whole systems at the such short notice but it will have to happen so better sooner rather than later.

 

[Wibble]

It came to humans from civet cat, but it jumped from bats to civet cat.

Also, SARS2 apparently came from some intermediate animal (probably pangolin).

And MERS was bats>camels>humans

 

[Redplane]

Several states have now shut down restaurants and bars as well. At this rate I'd be surprised if we re not heading for a full on lock down sometime this week (US). But not before the markets set some new tanking records of course.

 

[shamans]

NYC closing bars, night clubs and restaurants for only takeaway is massive

 

[Wibble]

Your post prompted me to do a bit of research into the recent weather of C19 hotbeds like Milan/Madrid versus places like Germany (where the CFR is extraordinarily low).

This is the weather for Milan in February: https://www.accuweather.com/en/it/milan/214046/february-weather/214046?year=2020&view=list
This is the weather for Madrid in February: https://www.accuweather.com/en/es/madrid/308526/february-weather/308526?year=2020&view=list
This is a precipitation graph for Germany over the last year, but inclusive of February: https://www.statista.com/statistics/982744/average-monthly-precipitation-germany/

What's stark is that Madrid and Milan have been pretty much bone dry, where as Germany has seen huge amount of rainfall.

If rain/air humidity does turn out to be a blocker for the transmission of C19, the UK might actually stand a chance. I'll have never wanted a shitty British summer so badly in my life.

Singapore in February breaks the trend of low rainfall meaning high infection rates: https://www.accuweather.com/en/sg/singapore/300597/february-weather/300597?year=2020&view=list

But then, Singapore is also famously humid, as a small island nation at the equator. So who knows? The high temperatures might have also played a part. For Pakistan's sake, I hope heat does indeed help.

This article I found suggests that using a humidifier might help against the airborne transmission of flu: https://www.popsci.com/cold-flu-season-sick-winter/ so there is some precedence (disclaimer: I'm making totally uneducated guesses here).

I'm afraid that you are grasping at straws in the main. Concentrate on social distancing and good hygiene.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

 

[P-Ro]

This has to be my least favourite thread ever. It's genuinely made me feel like throwing up multiple times.

 

[Wibble]

Italy are at 8% deaths wow. I know they have the oldest population in Europe but that is insanely high

Mainly because the young, fit and slightly ill aren't being tested/diagnosed I'd guess.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

SARS, MERS, Codid-19 are Ebola have all originated in bats. fecking bats!

What will be the consequence of killing all the bats? Is it even possible?

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

What will be the consequence of killing all the bats? Is it even possible?

We don't have to kill them, we just have to stop eating them and other non-domesticated animals (depending on who you talk to).

 

[Revan]

What will be the consequence of killing all the bats? Is it even possible?

I don't think it is possible, and it might have bad consequences on the environment. The feckers are omnipresent and probably play an important role in the cycle of life.

 

[Wibble]

We don't have to kill them, we just have to stop eating them and other non-domesticated animals (depending on who you talk to).

Bat to human transmission is via an intermediary and we are almost certain that it isn't from consuming bats.

Of course we could get a virus from them and they do carry a wide range of nasties (and they are lovely creatures - we used to raise orphaned fruit bats) so we really should stop eating them.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I don't think it is possible, and it might have bad consequences on the environment. The feckers are omnipresent and probably play an important role in the cycle of life.

They absolutely do play a big role.

Exterminating any non-invasive member of an ecosystem will have negative consequences.

 

[4bars]

That's hugely out of date.

What is hugely out of date? That everytime that they suspended the wild life markets they reopened? or that Wild life market is mostly sustained by the elites that controls the country?

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Bat to human transmission is via an intermediary and we are almost certain that it isn't from consuming bats.

Of course we could get a virus from them and they do carry a wide range of nasties (and they are lovely creatures - we used to raise orphaned fruit bats) so we really should stop eating them.

To be fair, that's why I included other non-domesticated animals. Not to mention that the markets that sell the meat that is eaten can create other vector scenarios (scratches, bites).

Bats can give us rabies, too, but that doesn't mean such an extreme solution as eradicating them should be entertained.

 

[DOTA]

What is hugely out of date? That everytime that they suspended the wild life markets they reopened? or that Wild life market is mostly sustained by the elites that controls the country?

The suggestion that live markets continue.

 

[Dante]

I'm afraid that you are grasping at straws in the main. Concentrate on social distancing and good hygiene.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

Eh? I'm not clutching at straws. I even put in a disclaimer to that effect.

Spoiler: The relevant bit

Factor 1: The environment.
In the winter, the outdoor air is colder, and the air is dryer usually both indoors and out. For influenza, it has been elegantly shown in the lab that absolute humidity — the quantity of water vapor in the air — strongly affects flu transmission, with drier conditions being more favorable. Subsequently it has been shown that epidemiological patterns are consistent with this lab data in the US and in Vietnam, among other study sites. Notably the Vietnam study looked at influenza-like illness, without distinguishing influenza from other types of pathogens. This hints that similar mechanisms may be at work for other respiratory viruses, but to my knowledge are no specific studies of the role of humidity for coronaviruses or other respiratory viruses besides flu. Also important: there may be some very humid conditions that also favor flu transmission, especially relevant in the tropics. Still it is safe to say that in temperate countries, dry cold air = favorable conditions for flu transmission. For coronaviruses, the relevance of this factor is unknown. A recent preprint on which I collaborated suggests that transmission is possible in many different climates, and points out that Singapore, for example, which lies nearly on the equator, has had significant transmission. This is one piece of evidence, but as my colleague Dr. Eli Perencevich has pointed out there are many differences between Singapore in February and a temperate zone in summer — different day length, ultraviolet radiation, and other factors that may be important for coronavirus – we simply don’t know.

The relevant bit of you link ends with 'we simply don't know'. Which is pretty much what I'm saying.

Except whereas the article is providing no evidence in relation to this current outbreak, I'm at least offering circumstantial evidence to my guesstimate (and then promptly telling everyone to ignore my conclusion regardless).

 

[Lj82]

It came to humans from civet cat, but it jumped from bats to civet cat.

Also, SARS2 apparently came from some intermediate animal (probably pangolin).

Ah. Thanks for the info.
I still remember SARS vividly, as my country was badly affected. The government drew up contingency plans which is being tested now. So far it looks like we are doing fine.

Unfortunately, I'm not in Singapore now.