SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[2cents]

15,000 a day seem like an awful lot given the relatively small size of our population.

How much were South Korea testing per day?

I thought it was about 15,000. If you read down through the article, Varadkar says 15,000 per week which seems much more realistic - but the guy in UCD seems to think 15,000 per day will be possible.

Either way, I’m happy we’re aspiring to test as many as possible. The more people know they have it, the more we can keep them away from others and trace who they’ve been in contact with, so we can then test them. Hopefully this will help reduce asymptomatic spreaders. We’ve a manageable enough population that it should help.

 

[Carolina Red]

Finally sitting down to watch Netflix's Pandemic with my wife... should be interesting.

 

[Based Adnan]

you seriously think this is just Boris calling all the shots? delusional.

do you think this is the first time the experts have told him we should test more? delusional.

 

[One Night Only]

Where up in North ?

Hartlepool, between Sunderland and Middlesbrough, no man's land really

 

[senorgregster]

Finally sitting down to watch Netflix's Pandemic with my wife... should be interesting.

Please wish your wife all the best. Her and others on the front line are absolute heroes! If I ever come to SC after this I'd like to buy you both a drink.

 

[hungrywing]

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

Don't overreact. First of all it's just regarding China. Second, your respective countries' experts very likely know/suspect this already and are figuring it into their responses.

 

[bond19821982]

Hartlepool, between Sunderland and Middlesbrough, no man's land really

Oh ok, stay safe mate.

 

[One Night Only]

Hid a speaker upstairs and played a siren so the kids have ran down panicking, "there's an alarm! What does it mean? Are we staying off school?"

 

[bond19821982]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Brilliant article - what social distancing means in terms of flattening the curve.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I've been really impressed with our response so far. I know that frontline physicians are also full of praise for the HSE. Brand new CT scanners ordered and paid for within 24 hours of the request (which would usually take years to sort out) I didn't think we had it in us but it really does look as though we'll be one of the countries following best possible practice in trying to delay the spread of this fecking thing as much as possible.

In a weird way, would the fact that the HSE is already so stretched be .. helping us right now? Seems that we are doing pretty much everything in our power to limit the strain on the HSE. I wonder if we did have a health service on the level of a country like Italy or France would we still be acting like we are.

 

[Josep Dowling]

We have only five legal reasons to leave the house: Go to work, go to groceries stores, for medical reasons, for family emergencies and to walk dogs or individual physical activities.

When we go out we need to fill an attestation with the reason for breaking the lockdown, our name, birthdate and address. There is an other form that is given by your employer attesting that you work for him.

Don’t get me wrong I know people need to leave the house but that’s quite a consideration amount of reasons to leave the house. It’s basically what’s happened in the UK but instead of calling it lockdown it’s called essential travel.

 

[Cal?]

It seems most people in Europe/America still don't wear masks

Hong Kong and Taiwan are both very close to the outbreak yet has this relatively contained because EVERYONE wears masks everyday.

 

[Sarni]

If this goes longer than April in Poland and we are not able to open bars/restaurants/cinemas, essentially leaving millions of people without income, I'm going to choose 2-3 families to support financially. I will still be making good money sitting at home and doing the exact same job I'd be normally doing but there'd be people unable to get food and pay rent out there.

 

[Carolina Red]

Please wish your wife all the best. Her and others on the front line are absolute heroes! If I ever come to SC after this I'd like to buy you both a drink.

I appreciate it dude. Hopefully we'll be able to have that drink one day!

 

[Nou_Camp99]

China = 3,237 deaths from 80,894 cases

Italy = 2,500 from 31,000 cases

Do we believe this is an accurate account from China?

 

[Pexbo]

Hid a speaker upstairs and played a siren so the kids have ran down panicking, "there's an alarm! What does it mean? Are we staying off school?"

"Nothing to worry about you little scamps, just getting you trained up for the alarm I will sound when our house is being invaded by an angry masked gang of hungry thugs brandishing baseball bats and knives. Go back to playing Nintendo for now but I want a quicker response next time."

 

[dwd]

We have only five legal reasons to leave the house: Go to work, go to groceries stores, for medical reasons, for family emergencies and to walk dogs or individual physical activities.

When we go out we need to fill an attestation with the reason for breaking the lockdown, our name, birthdate and address. There is an other form that is given by your employer attesting that you work for him.

Interesting. That's pretty much what I'm doing now anyway, apart from the paperwork aspect. How is that handled by the way? Surely it's a big burden on resources?

 

[Sarni]

It seems most people in Europe/America still don't wear masks

Hong Kong and Taiwan are both very close to the outbreak yet has this relatively contained because EVERYONE wears masks everyday.

Impossible to buy them here anymore.

 

[Sarni]

China = 3,237 deaths from 80,894 cases

Italy = 2,500 from 31,000 cases

Do we believe this is an accurate account from China?

Yes I'd say so. Italy are way above everyone else, I'd expect their ratio is inflated.

 

[Dante]

From a book written by Sylvia Browne in 2008.

She also said a sitting president in the US would die from a heart attack.

 

[TMDaines]

It seems most people in Europe/America still don't wear masks

Hong Kong and Taiwan are both very close to the outbreak yet has this relatively contained because EVERYONE wears masks everyday.

That Singapore lecture I posted earlier was very interesting, because they were explicit with their public that they DID NOT WANT them to wear masks everyday and waste them. They wanted them saved for when they would be most useful: both to protect others when you were contagious and for when you had to interact with people showing symptoms. Everyone wearing masks all the time in public is an awful waste for little benefit.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

China = 3,237 deaths from 80,894 cases

Italy = 2,500 from 31,000 cases

Do we believe this is an accurate account from China?

Nope. But the trend is still good news.

China probably had at least half a million cases.

 

[One Night Only]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Brilliant article - what social distancing means in terms of flattening the curve.

That's actually very useful, helped me understand it a bit more.

 

[Massive Spanner]

We have only five legal reasons to leave the house: Go to work, go to groceries stores, for medical reasons, for family emergencies and to walk dogs or individual physical activities.

When we go out we need to fill an attestation with the reason for breaking the lockdown, our name, birthdate and address. There is an other form that is given by your employer attesting that you work for him.

Good on you France. The good bois need to be given the utmost importance.

 

[TMDaines]

From a book written by Sylvia Browne in 2008.

She also said a sitting president in the US would die from a heart attack.

But did she put a bet on Leicester winning the league?

 

[golden_blunder]

He has got a plan. He wants a cross party response to all the issues and all the other parties are in agreement. Stop saying he can't deal with the situation in the country. Everybody knows it's an impossible situation and headless chicken comments don't help.

You're trying to score political points when we should all be pulling together. He said we are ramping up to 10,000 tests a day and aiming for 25,000. The money is there but finding people and locations to safely test people is a gargantuan challenge. Do you not get it?

They could use football stadiums like Ireland is doing with Croke Park

 

[TMDaines]

We have only five legal reasons to leave the house: Go to work, go to groceries stores, for medical reasons, for family emergencies and to walk dogs or individual physical activities.

When we go out we need to fill an attestation with the reason for breaking the lockdown, our name, birthdate and address. There is an other form that is given by your employer attesting that you work for him.

Can I ask you (French) and the Italians a practical question? How do you get these forms? I imagine most households don't have a printer!

 

[Dancfc]

What about the long terms impacts this virus may have? Lets say we return to normal after a month, more and more people catch it, what happens to the NHS? What about the deaths from the virus? Are we certain that younger people will not make up the mortality numbers as well? What about suicides and depression from losing loved ones? Will this not have an impact on the economy? We can't just ignore one problem in a bid to avoid another.

We spent crucial weeks ignoring this problem. I'd hope we don't make the same mistake again.

Which makes it crucial not to go too far one way or another.

Living the normal life isn't feesible right now but neither is being totally locked at home for anything but maybe a short interim period.

Precautions very much have to be taken but as in every walk of life at some point caution becomes counter productive and actually does more harm than good. The most frustrating thing about this for me is no one seems to be finding middle ground, it's either carrying on as normal or acting like the the skys falling down, both approaches will turn out to be very damaging.

 

[11101]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Brilliant article - what social distancing means in terms of flattening the curve.

That really is an excellent article.

 

[Volumiza]

Teachers shouldn't be getting a few months off with full pay for me. They should be in schools working with the small group of kids who can't stay at home because their families work in NHS etc. They could do their planning for next year too.

This is a great idea by the way.

Seen loads of tweets from teachers who clearly just want to be off work and get full pay. Absolutely no chance. You can still work like the rest of us.

I personally know 3 teachers. 2 of them are pretty well described by this. Any excuse. 1 on the other hand is a proper teacher.

 

[Volumiza]

When uk schools close, which they will, all childcare costs for NHS workers should be paid in FULL.

Mrs Volumiza's Mum is a senior in Nottinghamshires NHS and she is bracing herself. I can tell you they are in war footing.

 

[Dante]

This is a great idea by the way.



I personally know 3 teachers. 2 of them are pretty well described by this. Any excuse. 1 on the other hand is a proper teacher.

I used to be a secondary school teacher.

Pretty much everyone hates the job.

 

[11101]

Can I ask you (French) and the Italians a practical question? How do you get these forms? I imagine most households don't have a printer!

This is Italy's - https://www.interno.gov.it/sites/default/files/allegati/modulo-autodichiarazione-17.3.2020.pdf

You can print it, edit/sign on your phone, or the police/army will give you one if they stop you and you don't have one.

 

[Volumiza]

I used to be a secondary school teacher.

Pretty much everyone hates the job.

So I gather. It's such a shame as it is such an important job.

 

[Jippy]

London lockdown, with only chemists and supermarkets left open, could be announced on Friday, according to the FT.

 

[Berbaclass]

Tweet

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[mu4c_20le]

Tweet

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[JPRouve]

Don’t get me wrong I know people need to leave the house but that’s quite a consideration amount of reasons to leave the house. It’s basically what’s happened in the UK but instead of calling it lockdown it’s called essential travel.

Interesting. That's pretty much what I'm doing now anyway, apart from the paperwork aspect. How is that handled by the way? Surely it's a big burden on resources?

Yeah, the goal is basically to trick people into limiting drastically contacts, since we can't behave without stringent rules. I suppose that the burden is about the paperwork, honestly it's a bit of a farce, you print it yourself and if you are controlled you have to show it otherwise it's a 135€ fine.

 

[11101]

Great article here with graphics to explain why quarantine and social distancing works:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[TMDaines]

How long until the same parents start yelling for schools to be open after having the kids at home for a week?