SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Eriku

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To be fair, over the last couple of years I've purchased a few things from the supermarket that appear to have been opened and tampered with in the store. I check a lot of stuff now to be sure. Check your ice cream before you buy it.
Yeah, any signs of that will have me assuming the worst now.
 

kouroux

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I live in South Africa so the figures I watch are to see which way I think things are going to go in my country. Our government has placed a 21 day lockdown from tomorrow at midnight so far we have just over 700 infected but their is no where to tell the real figure. We have a large population that has aids and many other problems. A government hospital system that has had very little improvement since the fall of Apartheid. God knows how many ventilators but certainly not enough. South Africa could make Italy look a walk in the park.
I live in Djibouti, much much smaller than SA (1 million people tops) and we went from 2 to 11 since yesterday, official numbers are one thing but I suspect there are a lot more sick people already and have been for a while. Chinese workers have been flowing to the country for weeks. The clueless local gvt closed down the airport on the 18th after making the announcement 2 days prior, some planes arrived on the 17th and instead of quaranting/testing the people as precaution, they let them all out.
This kinda incompetence is gonna be the death of us sadly. The local population is addicted to a drug called "khat" improved from Ethiopia and still imported to this day. This shit kills you inside and out, lower one's immune system. We regularly face malarias, chikungunya every fresh season so the local population is weak.
Unless a miracle occurs, Covid will be the death of this poor and small country
 

Sarni

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Do you mean 20,000? That's going by the 1/500 estimate that we saw weeks ago, though I reckon the odds are bigger than that in reality. In Italy at some point they were saying the 'safer group' was able to fight the disease for longer, and they saw more deaths from that group at the later stages. Iran recorded I think the deaths of at least 10 professional athletes (in the safer group), I doubt all of them had undiagnosed health problems (w.r.t. the earlier post I was replying to).
No I meant 2,000. That’s 0.1% of 2 million which I think will be about the right rate. I think all mortality rates are going to be inflated now because people can go through this with mild symptoms and not get diagnosed. It was around that in Korea as well.

20,000 would mean 1% dies. That would be very high.
 

Shakesy

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I live in South Africa so the figures I watch are to see which way I think things are going to go in my country. Our government has placed a 21 day lockdown from tomorrow at midnight so far we have just over 700 infected but their is no where to tell the real figure. We have a large population that has aids and many other problems. A government hospital system that has had very little improvement since the fall of Apartheid. God knows how many ventilators but certainly not enough. South Africa could make Italy look a walk in the park.
Agreed.

It's coming brother.
 

SAred

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I live in Djibouti, much much smaller than SA (1 million people tops) and we went from 2 to 11 since yesterday, official numbers are one thing but I suspect there are a lot more sick people already and have been for a while. Chinese workers have been flowing to the country for weeks. The clueless local gvt closed down the airport on the 18th after making the announcement 2 days prior, some planes arrived on the 17th and instead of quaranting/testing the people as precaution, they let them all out.
This kinda incompetence is gonna be the death of us sadly. The local population is addicted to a drug called "khat" improved from Ethiopia and still imported to this day. This shit kills you inside and out, lower one's immune system. We regularly face malarias, chikungunya every fresh season so the local population is weak.
Unless a miracle occurs, Covid will be the death of this poor and small country
Wow bloody hell, all I can say keep your hands clean and best foot forward scary times for us both me slightly less so.
 

Prometheus

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No I meant 2,000. That’s 0.1% of 2 million which I think will be about the right rate. I think all mortality rates are going to be inflated now because people can go through this with mild symptoms and not get diagnosed. It was around that in Korea as well.

20,000 would mean 1% dies. That would be very high.
Oh, yeah. I misread that. I thought the 10 million was the safer group.
 

Sarni

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And to think if we just did exactly what China are doing now, without any qualms, we would have been safe from this. But we didn’t want to test/quarantine people coming from China because it would have ‘hurt our economy’. Guess what will hurt it more, locking down entire countries for what could easily be a year or more.
 

OutlawGER

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It makes you unlikely to die but not impossible. When the volume of cases goes up, more and more young people will die. It gets reported now because it's quite rare, therefore you see a lot of these '30-year old dies from covid-19' reports but people will get used to this happening when there are more cases. If there are 10 million cases worldwide, and 2 million are in the 18-40 range that is technically 'safer' group, still 2,000 or so of them will die.

Every coronavirus death report in Poland right now says that 'patient had other diseases' as if it's supposed to make everyone else feel safer.
It's exactly the same in Germany since day 1.
 

kouroux

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And to think if we just did exactly what China are doing now, without any qualms, we would have been safe from this. But we didn’t want to test/quarantine people coming from China because it would have ‘hurt our economy’. Guess what will hurt it more, locking down entire countries for what could easily be a year or more.
Planet Earth is crazy now. Every country basically on lockdown
 

bonothom

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There's some really odd lines in that BBC article.

"Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales - factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000.

The coronavirus deaths will not be in addition to these."

That isn't what the study says at all. It also pitches 10% infected as some upper limit but again PHE see that several times higher.
Oxford University study.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all."
 
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Garethw

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I think my little boy might have it. Hacking cough and and temperature of 38.6C.

Called 111 and we’ve got to isolate for 14 days. if his temp goes above 38.7 I’ve got to call them back.

my wife, my 8 month old and myself all have the cough but no temperature yet. Scary times
 

Carolina Red

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Senate Republicans are seriously arguing right now that the economic stimulus bill is "too generous" to working class people and will "incentivize companies to lay off workers".
 

Sarni

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Oxford University study.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all."
How do they know that?
 

Heardy

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There are two ways to improve your case fatality rate: the more difficult way is to care for the at-risk patients better and earlier to reduce the change of them dying (reduce the numerator); the easier is to find more patients with the disease who are unlikely to die in the near future (increase the denominator).

German senior figures are heavily cautioning against them being the bearers of best practice in this crisis, which betrays that they feel the latter is more likely.
Even if that is true - it’s positive. I think people would fear the disease far less if true mortality rates were known.

This would Help reduce panic but may result in more people being too relaxed and causing another spike in new infections - shit either way I guess
 

Prometheus

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I live in Djibouti, much much smaller than SA (1 million people tops) and we went from 2 to 11 since yesterday, official numbers are one thing but I suspect there are a lot more sick people already and have been for a while. Chinese workers have been flowing to the country for weeks. The clueless local gvt closed down the airport on the 18th after making the announcement 2 days prior, some planes arrived on the 17th and instead of quaranting/testing the people as precaution, they let them all out.
This kinda incompetence is gonna be the death of us sadly. The local population is addicted to a drug called "khat" improved from Ethiopia and still imported to this day. This shit kills you inside and out, lower one's immune system. We regularly face malarias, chikungunya every fresh season so the local population is weak.
Unless a miracle occurs, Covid will be the death of this poor and small country
Damn. People are addicted to that shitty drug in Somaliland/Somalia as well. Authorities there make no moves unless they receive directives from the UN/WHO who are slow and often have corrupt representatives there. (Also someone I know was on the phone to people there, and it appears people have some bizarre myths about this virus, due to lack of proper information I assume).
 

jojojo

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Wumminator

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Am I right in saying that the UK haven’t published figures today?

I don’t know why but I’m expecting a sharp rise. Can’t quite put my finger on it, maybe this is what anxiety feels like?
 

Fully Fledged

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Do UK, USA, Spain etc publish the region or the towns/cities of positive cases?

In SA we only specify the province and it sucks.
The BBC do this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish or Welsh NHS area to find out. Northern Ireland does not currently provide localised figures.
Type in 3 or more characters for results.

There are 76 confirmed cases in Bromley, out of a local population of 331,096
Note: Not all those with the virus will have been tested
Source: UK public health bodies. Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 23 March
 

Ekkie Thump

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Oxford University study.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all."
How would this study account for the much larger proportion of hospitalisations seen on the Diamond Princess?
 

Jippy

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its clearly going to be difficult to devise a package that’s not going to be abused for the self employed (I am one myself).

there will be a significant no of people who don’t have three tax returns, that means you would be going back to 2016/17, and for anyone less than a year they have zero track record. Perhaps they will look at the average PAYE over that period?

not sure anyone will have any sympathy for those who do not declare their earnings.

but we do need to get a package sorted quickly. If you have an electrician who earns £150-200 day, is he going to stay home at the moment for £97 per week?

we will presumably move to a full lockdown scenario at some point and it needs to be sorted beforehand, otherwise these workers will be difficult to control.
Perhaps a dumb question, but one Google couldn’t help answer.

If you have got a few FFP3 masks, would cycling them be a way to safely reuse them? For example, if I stored the mask I wore today to go to the shops for 3 weeks in a paper bag, could I wear that again in 3 weeks with there being virtually zero chance of the coronavirus being live on the mask?

I know they are intended to be disposable, but using them for a couple of hours at a time in areas that put them under a very light load (i.e. fresh or supermarket air, not a building site), is barely using the mask and is not compromising its structure.

I was surprised that there was no research into it.
Not a dumb question. I asked a similar one pages back, but just got a response saying dispose. That's clearly safest, but for the virus to survive that long on a mask does seem to go against all current thinking on its ability to survive on surfaces.
 

barros

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Their measures were more effective. Their health system did not get overwhelmed unlike Italy. They built entire hospitals within 24 hours, and didn't experience any shortage of ICU equipment due to their ability to mass produce. China moved like an actual super power.
Except nobody believes China numbers including the Chinese so lets send a rumor this virus was created by the states. This pandemic was the wake up call for the west and China's growing will suffer in the future because I'm sure the west will move some important manufacturing back to the countries. Look to US with shortage of respirators, masks and ventilators, with Ford and Tesla making ventilators since they come from China and their government took over of any medical supplies made there.
 

LilyWhiteSpur

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Am I right in saying that the UK haven’t published figures today?

I don’t know why but I’m expecting a sharp rise. Can’t quite put my finger on it, maybe this is what anxiety feels like?
187 news cases, 13 new deaths.

To be honest most published stats are meaningless, they are the bare minimum figures.