SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Senate Republicans are seriously arguing right now that the economic stimulus bill is "too generous" to working class people and will "incentivize companies to lay off workers".
 
bonothom said:
Oxford University study.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all."
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How do they know that?
 
TMDaines said:
There are two ways to improve your case fatality rate: the more difficult way is to care for the at-risk patients better and earlier to reduce the change of them dying (reduce the numerator); the easier is to find more patients with the disease who are unlikely to die in the near future (increase the denominator).

German senior figures are heavily cautioning against them being the bearers of best practice in this crisis, which betrays that they feel the latter is more likely.
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Even if that is true - it’s positive. I think people would fear the disease far less if true mortality rates were known.

This would Help reduce panic but may result in more people being too relaxed and causing another spike in new infections - shit either way I guess
 
kouroux said:
I live in Djibouti, much much smaller than SA (1 million people tops) and we went from 2 to 11 since yesterday, official numbers are one thing but I suspect there are a lot more sick people already and have been for a while. Chinese workers have been flowing to the country for weeks. The clueless local gvt closed down the airport on the 18th after making the announcement 2 days prior, some planes arrived on the 17th and instead of quaranting/testing the people as precaution, they let them all out.
This kinda incompetence is gonna be the death of us sadly. The local population is addicted to a drug called "khat" improved from Ethiopia and still imported to this day. This shit kills you inside and out, lower one's immune system. We regularly face malarias, chikungunya every fresh season so the local population is weak.
Unless a miracle occurs, Covid will be the death of this poor and small country
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Damn. People are addicted to that shitty drug in Somaliland/Somalia as well. Authorities there make no moves unless they receive directives from the UN/WHO who are slow and often have corrupt representatives there. (Also someone I know was on the phone to people there, and it appears people have some bizarre myths about this virus, due to lack of proper information I assume).
 
Am I right in saying that the UK haven’t published figures today?

I don’t know why but I’m expecting a sharp rise. Can’t quite put my finger on it, maybe this is what anxiety feels like?
 
Shakesey said:
Do UK, USA, Spain etc publish the region or the towns/cities of positive cases?

In SA we only specify the province and it sucks.
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The BBC do this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish or Welsh NHS area to find out. Northern Ireland does not currently provide localised figures.
Type in 3 or more characters for results.

There are 76 confirmed cases in Bromley, out of a local population of 331,096
Note: Not all those with the virus will have been tested
Source: UK public health bodies. Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 23 March
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bonothom said:
Oxford University study.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all."
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How would this study account for the much larger proportion of hospitalisations seen on the Diamond Princess?
 
ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg said:
its clearly going to be difficult to devise a package that’s not going to be abused for the self employed (I am one myself).

there will be a significant no of people who don’t have three tax returns, that means you would be going back to 2016/17, and for anyone less than a year they have zero track record. Perhaps they will look at the average PAYE over that period?

not sure anyone will have any sympathy for those who do not declare their earnings.

but we do need to get a package sorted quickly. If you have an electrician who earns £150-200 day, is he going to stay home at the moment for £97 per week?

we will presumably move to a full lockdown scenario at some point and it needs to be sorted beforehand, otherwise these workers will be difficult to control.
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TMDaines said:
Perhaps a dumb question, but one Google couldn’t help answer.

If you have got a few FFP3 masks, would cycling them be a way to safely reuse them? For example, if I stored the mask I wore today to go to the shops for 3 weeks in a paper bag, could I wear that again in 3 weeks with there being virtually zero chance of the coronavirus being live on the mask?

I know they are intended to be disposable, but using them for a couple of hours at a time in areas that put them under a very light load (i.e. fresh or supermarket air, not a building site), is barely using the mask and is not compromising its structure.

I was surprised that there was no research into it.
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Not a dumb question. I asked a similar one pages back, but just got a response saying dispose. That's clearly safest, but for the virus to survive that long on a mask does seem to go against all current thinking on its ability to survive on surfaces.
 
Prometheus said:
Their measures were more effective. Their health system did not get overwhelmed unlike Italy. They built entire hospitals within 24 hours, and didn't experience any shortage of ICU equipment due to their ability to mass produce. China moved like an actual super power.
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Except nobody believes China numbers including the Chinese so lets send a rumor this virus was created by the states. This pandemic was the wake up call for the west and China's growing will suffer in the future because I'm sure the west will move some important manufacturing back to the countries. Look to US with shortage of respirators, masks and ventilators, with Ford and Tesla making ventilators since they come from China and their government took over of any medical supplies made there.
 
Wumminator said:
Am I right in saying that the UK haven’t published figures today?

I don’t know why but I’m expecting a sharp rise. Can’t quite put my finger on it, maybe this is what anxiety feels like?
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187 news cases, 13 new deaths.

To be honest most published stats are meaningless, they are the bare minimum figures.
 
711 said:
I'm close enough to that to understand. Look after yourself.
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Hope you and @DOTA are ok. Worry is you're having to expose yourselves by going to the shops more regularly.
I'm glad I'm off it, but have thought more about booze in the last few days than I have in months:(
 
Fully Fledged said:
Is that the whole of the UK including England because we have been getting that number of cases for Scotland, Wales and NI without England involved.
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That’s on the website I usually go too that’s been accurate so far, so really no idea, again it’s pointless looking things are going to get a lot worse very quickly.
 
It's the figures excluding England and only partial for Scotland:

Wales: 150 cases, 5 deaths,
NI: 37 cases, 2 deaths
Scotland: ??? cases, 6 deaths
 
InLevyITrust said:
Yeah but it’s what has been reported this far.
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Don’t know what the logic would be in releasing bad news later on, but I feel that the last 24 hours I have heard plenty of stories from people on Facebook about people dying from this. I’m wondering if the whole “test for everyone” news today was to try and bring up optimism?
 
Garethw said:
I think my little boy might have it. Hacking cough and and temperature of 38.6C.

Called 111 and we’ve got to isolate for 14 days. if his temp goes above 38.7 I’ve got to call them back.

my wife, my 8 month old and myself all have the cough but no temperature yet. Scary times
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All the best to you and yours, Gareth. x
 
jojojo said:
The government do a map version, that drops down to town or London borough (actually NHS area) level:
mobile - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae
desktop - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
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Cheers. 34 in Oldham area, not too bad I guess although true number likely to be x10 or more higher. I've still not heard of anybody confirmed officially but have heard of several with symptoms similar to the virus.
 
Wumminator said:
Don’t know what the logic would be in releasing bad news later on, but I feel that the last 24 hours I have heard plenty of stories from people on Facebook about people dying from this. I’m wondering if the whole “test for everyone” news today was to try and bring up optimism?
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I think most people know the problem in the UK is much worse than it’s reported, but given the fact it seems most people here are feck wits anything that stops more panic buying is a good thing.
 
Prometheus said:
Damn. People are addicted to that shitty drug in Somaliland/Somalia as well. Authorities there make no moves unless they receive directives from the UN/WHO who are slow and often have corrupt representatives there. (Also someone I know was on the phone to people there, and it appears people have some bizarre myths about this virus, due to lack of proper information I assume).
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I heard Farmajo stopped the import of Kenyan khat. This plant is a certified drug everywhere else in the world except in Eastern Africa and Yemen. At least now in Djibouti there is a curfew, the army is present and people are put straight to jail if they are seen at night but I feel like it's too late.
Regarding the myths, you're unfortunately right, people think the sun/heat will protect them whereas they know Saudia Arabia is on lockdown, the Mekkah is on lockdown too. Many of them do not know about the concept "asymptomatic carrier", for them if you cough you are sick, if you don't then you are fine. Many pricks think they have a special protection from God and therefore they still have to pray in groups, they don't realize how selfish they are actually.
 
barros said:
Except nobody believes China numbers including the Chinese so lets send a rumor this virus was created by the states. This pandemic was the wake up call for the west and China's growing will suffer in the future because I'm sure the west will move some important manufacturing back to the countries. Look to US with shortage of respirators, masks and ventilators, with Ford and Tesla making ventilators since they come from China and their government took over of any medical supplies made there.
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I doubt it's coming back to the west specifically. But they'll make more of an effort to diversify the supply chains and the likes of Indonesia and Philippines might be where they shift some of it, to reduce the dependence on China.
 
Skills said:
I doubt it's coming back to the west specifically. But they'll make more of an effort to diversify the supply chains and the likes of Indonesia and Philippines might be where they shift some of it, to reduce the dependence on China.
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Once everything goes to back normal in a few months and years, usual habits (profit at all costs) will kick in and therefore Western countries will always look for cheap production costs even if it's not China anymore
 
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