Yup, Bob thinks we mean when 1000 ICU beds are being used by 999 people, we start taking stricter measures.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
The changes are very minor, it's the amount of change.
https://www.businessinsider.com/new...accine-could-be-long-lasting-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
This is what a few people seem to be missing. A lockdown costs you money, but what you're buying for all that economic hardship is time - time to buy/build ventilators, time to expand your critical care capacity, time to get healthcare workers tested, time to roll out PPE etc. That will have an enormous impact on the eventual death rate in a country like the UK, whose healthcare system runs at close to capacity all year around.
It depends. If you can show me where you disagreed with his claim:
You don't want lockdown until your health service is at the absolute brink of capacity
Then no, i probably can't read.
I'm gonna trust that the experts who give us a daily 14:00 press conference know exactly that.
Yeah, unfortunately. I was optimistic at first for the summer but it looks nailed on for a RIP Werchter and Pukkelpop
I'm comforted to know that all the experts around the world are wrong and a few posters on RedCafe are right, but it now also frustrates me that we listened to those experts in Ireland and locked down before our healthcare was at the brink of capacity. Might lodge a complaint, or get in contact with other affluent, like minded people and get a pub reopened.
Cheers! That’s encouraging.
The same experts that talked about herd immunity and are now lying the ever said it due to public backlash?
I'm all for being positive about this but some people I speak to saying ''ah it'll be gone in 3 weeks'' are kind of doing by head in. It's not going to just disappear into thin air is it? I wish it did but most likely we'll need to wait on the vaccine.
All the experts in the entire World talk about herd immunity to be fair, it's one of just two ways out of this.
This. All experts have different opinions evidenced by different countries taking different measures.
Most here thinking lockdown a bit early is better.
And again im no expert and in theory it sounds a good (albeit risky idea, especially to make the public understand) but dont back track if its what you truly believe.
@Massive Spanner, for what it's worth mate, I'm simply defending the path the SWEDISH experts believe is best for SWEDEN, at this point.
If that makes me a internet expert who knows better than the experts in Ireland, so be it, but it's an odd line to take.
Bit rich coming from the person who has been making pretty much the worst posts in this thread for weeks.
It's not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely (I'm assuming a lot of posters will have already pointed this out). If-something-looks-too-good-to-be-true and all that.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1216
If you know R0 and the average incubation period/time till death, you can loosely extrapolate large trends. It takes this long to kill, and we had our first death here on day D an d there were P patients on that day, and we assume Z amount of the population is 'highly susceptible' and then plug in the death rates correspondingly, so that means we probably had X amount of cases on day Y...
Looks like they made a couple of huge assumptions, particularly the one that Hunter mentions at the end.
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Who are you talking about now arnie?
But I think the chances of a vaccine coming in the next 5 years is vanishingly small. We don't have vaccines for Sars, Mers or common cold Coronaviruses. Despite what people say there have been ongoing efforts to develop these for many years, without success.
I think that hoping for a vaccine is like hoping for nuclear fusion technology so that climate change won't be a problem. It's possible, but not a planning scenario.
It doesn't matter if it's 95, 85, or any other percentage. They are asymptomatic and will have no bearing on hospital utilisation.
Knowing overall case numbers is useful for assessing effectiveness of control methods but you can take any sample size to do that. Total cases, symptomatic cases, 50% of total cases, whatever you want, as long as the sample stays consistent.
As long as everything remains constant then obviously not if the system can cope. There's several factors in play though. As far as I can gather the average ICU stay for covid19 is around a fortnight. For your example of 15 patients a day you need a spare 210 ICUs to cope - at which point your system will be at capacity within 14 days.
Yeah there’s no chance they have that few deaths when most of the population believe that if you just pray at the shrines in Najaf/Karbala, you’ll be cured of the “Karona” instantly
haha, I've defended Swedish expert scientific opinion. And the UK scientific opinion.
Now if it turns out the UK locked down too late, or that Sweden do it too late, I'm be the first to admit my trust was incorrectly placed.
But "worst" posts because I'm defending science is a bit rich when none of us know which country will come out of this best isn't it @Prometheus ?
I think they had to backtrack because of the politics and media pressure, but that will still be the plan.
That british expert that usually stands to boris' left during the announcements. On a radio show (i think) he talked about herd immunity as their plan but has since said it was never the plan. Piers morgan had both clips up on his Twitter recently highlighting the experts contradicting themselves.
My worth with Sweden is that they are essentially* doing what the likes of the UK, the US and even Italy did which is "ah we'll do more than worse happens" which is clearly not a good approach to take, as evidenced by what we've already seen.
*I could be wrong because I'm not actually living there
Why are you defending those 2 options rather than say Ireland as massive spanner mentioned?
Why those that stay open longest rather than ones that go earlier?
So we're genuinely hoping this thing just burns itself out?
Thats sort of the point im getting at. If thats their plan, they are now just lying to the public, so how are these experts to be believed and trusted over other experts?
It's NOTHING like Italy for fecks sake man.
Italy won't be possible here because we simply don't live like that for a start, we maintain social distance at the best of times and 90% of the country is a wilderness.
Why do people even have such view of things they have very little idea about? In Sweden we have put lots in place to combat this.
I have no idea how Ireland, the UK or Sweden will play out.
I mentioned UK because I'm English, and Swedish because I live there. Are you just looking for an argument here?
I have defended every single country in here that follows the advice of the scientific advisors and scientific models, rather than make political decisions.
Coronavirus is totally different. We don't have a vaccine for the common cold because there are so many different types and they continually change, and there was never the incentive to keep developing SARS or MERS vaccines.
So far coronavirus hasn't evolved much if at all and it's shutting down half the world.
Barbecues and beer garden by Easter innit.
The worst are the ones that are like “just imagine...it’s the first weekend after the lockdown is over, it’s a warm summer night, everyone’s excited, it’s gonna be mad mate”
Like “lockdown” is just a switch you flick on and off. I really am worried for a lot of these people and how they’re going to handle the next few months.
No, im genuinely asking why you see. To prefer a later deferment of lockdown rather than earlier?
Im not talking about months here either, just a week or two.
They are all coronaviruses, which is why I put them together. I hope so, but I just don't think it's something we as a society can plan on.
But if you lock down too early, you will never know whether it's a week early or two months too early.
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I don't. I prefer the scientists to follow their models.
I also know 100% that a 2 week lockdown needs to achieve something, else it's absolutely pointless. In Italy, France and Spain it is achieving it's goal because it had spiralled out of control there arnie. It's not close to spiralling here in Sweden.
When it does start to spike (so before it goes out of control), I'm all for lockdown or stricter measures. But why are you for locking down now in Sweden? for 2 weeks? to what goal?
No testing whatsoever.
Also no request or instruction to self isolate, let alone any mechanic to check that I do it.
FYI, I know someone at LiveNation who always tells me which bands will play on the bigger festivals in Belgium, days before the announcements and his take is that Werchter and Graspop are already cancelled at this point. They are just waiting till they are forced by the govornment, to be able to reach out for insurance money.Yeah, unfortunately. I was optimistic at first for the summer but it looks nailed on for a RIP Werchter and Pukkelpop
No American, UK, Australian... bands will fly into our country in 2-3 months time, it's impossible imo.
I quoted you before you edit re political decisions.
How confident are you that the uk hasn't been doing that?
Advising not to go to pubs rather than closing them initially re rumours of keeping their insurance buddies happy? Neville even said if they closed hotels he could claim of insurance which forced his hand in closing his hotels himself and not being able to claim...
Keeping non essentisl construction open etc?
I think that’s a very shallow interpretation of what’s going on in Britain. About half a million volunteers have been mobilised here to look after the vulnerable and Dyson look like they’re going to manage to manufacture 10000 ventilators from scratch in month. These are just two examples of the monumental collective effort that’s happening here. When countries shut down will only be a very small part of this story when all is said and done.