SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[UncleBob]

That's the difficult bit for the governments to figure out while we are in lockdown. We have to come up with a strategy that allows young, healthy people to work and develop herd immunity while at the same time flatten the curve and slow down the infection rate (or rather the rate of cases that require hospitalisation) enough to make sure the healthy system is able to act at all times. This is the most important thing obviously. I just hope there is some truth in that Oxford paper and a large part of the population has already been infected and herd immunity is already happening.

Part of the problem is the definition of healthy. Yesterday, in Norway, several people aged between 20-45 without known diseases were admitted to hospital and put on life support.

In terms of herd immunity, we still don't understand the immune response.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I've been trying to argue the same point with no luck. People in here want lockdowns!

Yeah I’m well aware that I’m in the minority on the forum regarding this.
I’d be all for a Wuhan type lockdown, as locking down an entire city with Chinese military might and drones is possible and can work to possibly even eradicate this virus from that city.
Locking down entire countries though? Simply not feasible or possible so the virus will continue to spread, there’s no doubt about that at all once you know how incredibly contagious this is. All locking down will do is to possibly slow it down and buy some time.
But it’s short term, this virus is simply not deadly enough to make long term lockdowns of countries even remotely possible.
So the question all the desperate lockdowners have to ask themselves it what they hope it will achieve. If the answer is “a few weeks to slow it down and get more prepared”, fair play. Any other answer is simply fantasy stuff.

Which is why I’m pleased that Sweden is waiting with drastic measures until we desperately need to “slow it down and buy some weeks”. That might be 2 days, 2 weeks or 2 months away, but better to save it till it’s required.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Now people wash their hands, next virus will hopefully get them to wash their bodies and brush their teeth

Silver linings.

 

[Hal9000]

Landlord trying to move someone new into the house during this. . What;s worst is he's a PT and started offering home visits to people instead of abiding to social distancing and lockdown.

 

[jojojo]

There's little point in acting as if working life can stop beyond what's strictly and immediately life sustaining. For a week (for most people) life's about food and water, but that's not enough for long.

We're already starting to get used to how dependant we are on a massive infrastructure that deals with health, education, food production and distribution, utilities.

Stop collecting rubbish for a couple of weeks and we'll realise how dependant we are on that. Same with the chemical industry and engineering firms who underpin the rest of it, including health services and food production.

Same with a whole army of jobbing builders, roofers, plumbers and electricians who fix all the stupid stuff that goes wrong in people's houses - ironically often in the homes of the old, and the vulnerable who don't have the money/energy to deal with routine maintenance or replace a boiler until it actually fails completely.

As time goes on, shoes for growing kids are a necessity. So are lots of things.

Complaining about people going to work is pointless. Lots of people need to be working to support our lives, at different times the numbers will be different. Right now the priority is to avoid destroying the health service.

People getting infected in this period is inevitable, and that'll continue to happen until we have a safe, proven vaccine. It's going to be a balancing act - and yes, that does mean people will die, the balance comes when you look at the alternative. We also want the farms to get their annual influx of labour and pick the soft fruit, or the builders to take the cladding off the tower block and install sprinklers, and that the suppliers need to be open to support it.

What we can also try to do, is remember the lessons. Working from home, social distancing in the workplace (flexible working hours, less crowded cafeterias - anything that makes queues shorter). Those can continue as well. Meanwhile, home delivery for the most vulnerable, could be become more of a routine, and less of a crisis. Balance is a big deal.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Good news - just in time for barbecue and beer garden season hopefully!

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[Eriku]

Yeah I’m well aware that I’m in the minority on the forum regarding this.
I’d be all for a Wuhan type lockdown, as locking down an entire city with Chinese military might and drones is possible and can work to possibly even eradicate this virus from that city.
Locking down entire countries though? Simply not feasible or possible so the virus will continue to spread, there’s no doubt about that at all once you know how incredibly contagious this is. All locking down will do is to possibly slow it down and buy some time.
But it’s short term, this virus is simply not deadly enough to make long term lockdowns of countries even remotely possible.
So the question all the desperate lockdowners have to ask themselves it what they hope it will achieve. If the answer is “a few weeks to slow it down and get more prepared”, fair play. Any other answer is simply fantasy stuff.

Which is why I’m pleased that Sweden is waiting with drastic measures until we desperately need to “slow it down and buy some weeks”. That might be 2 days, 2 weeks or 2 months away, but better to save it till it’s required.

Who on here is arguing for nationwide lockdowns for a year plus? Everybody you’ve been arguing with is talking about buying time, nobody is saying this is about hunkering down till vaccine time, or that we can eradicate the virus this way.

You and Fiskey are fighting straw men.

 

[Sky1981]

1- Keep everyone home until the health system has recovered
2- Slowly rollback a few measures, allowing more people to work - start with the young and healthy, speciallfy ones who've already been infected. You do this very slowly, because cases will rise again and you need your health system to cope. Meaning for each rolled-back-measure you'll need to wait a few weeks to gauge if it's safe to progress
3- And on and on

If in the middle of this process you get a vaccine or a method of detecting who is already immune, you see a way out.

The hard part isn't what to do, but how to do it.

You really can't control people. You can tell them to stay at home, but eventually people need to come out for a good reason (replenish supplies, work, ets). If we're talking about 2 weeks people will be cooperative, but when we talk about long term it really is a different story.

Obviously nothing short of vacinne can clear this mess, the only problem right now is how to save the most lives until vacinne day.

I don't envy governments making decisions, it's a tough call.

 

[Fiskey]

Yeah I’m well aware that I’m in the minority on the forum regarding this.
I’d be all for a Wuhan type lockdown, as locking down an entire city with Chinese military might and drones is possible and can work to possibly even eradicate this virus from that city.
Locking down entire countries though? Simply not feasible or possible so the virus will continue to spread, there’s no doubt about that at all once you know how incredibly contagious this is. All locking down will do is to possibly slow it down and buy some time.
But it’s short term, this virus is simply not deadly enough to make long term lockdowns of countries even remotely possible.
So the question all the desperate lockdowners have to ask themselves it what they hope it will achieve. If the answer is “a few weeks to slow it down and get more prepared”, fair play. Any other answer is simply fantasy stuff.

Which is why I’m pleased that Sweden is waiting with drastic measures until we desperately need to “slow it down and buy some weeks”. That might be 2 days, 2 weeks or 2 months away, but better to save it till it’s required.

Eminently sensible.

 

[sammsky1]

I've been following your crazy escape for days! Godspeed!

Thanks mate. Just got home! And despite not being as exotic as Phuket, immediately feels like the right place to be, especially as Thailand starts military rule and curfews today.

Flight with Qatar passed without incident. Have to commend them their staff and general service - was outstanding Was only 75% full so people were spaced apart.

Landed @ Heathrow and through baggage and immigration in 20 mins (a record!) at 7.30am. Normally the arrivals terminal would be jam packed at this time, but was literally empty. It's going to close very quickly. However, I had to me my taxi outside departure terminal, and that terminal was JAM PACKED with foreign nationals desperately trying to get back their own country before borders close.

Taxi took M4 and M25, 2 very busy motorways which should be packed during ‘rush hour’ - again virtually empty like Sunday mornings. Never ever seen London like this, esp listening about struggles of NHS on radio news - feels like a dystopian movie!

Got home, threw worn clothes straight into hot wash in machine, and immediately jumped into 20 min long hot shower. Now feeling more relaxed as I enjoy my tea and starting my self isolation. Time will tell if I picked it up en route!

 

[Arruda]

You really can't control people.

Why do you say that?

They can, and they will.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Apparently Dyson almost have the go ahead to make 10000 ventilators available by mid April. 5000 to be donated to the international relief effort, not sure it that’s out of the 10000 or as well as.

 

[Fiskey]

Who on here is arguing for nationwide lockdowns for a year plus? Everybody you’ve been arguing with is talking about buying time, nobody is saying this is about hunkering down till vaccine time, or that we can eradicate the virus this way.

You and Fiskey are fighting straw men.

You don't want lockdown until your health service is at the absolute brink of capacity. I've spoken with three people who have gone into London hospitals in the past two days (people who have to be in hospital quite regularly) and they've all said it's eerily quiet.

If you lockdown too early you cause damage to the economy that didn't need to be caused and are left in pretty much the same situation when you relax (hopefully with more ventilators).

 

[Pagh Wraith]

2- Slowly rollback a few measures, allowing more people to work - start with the young and healthy, speciallfy ones who've already been infected. You do this very slowly, because cases will rise again and you need your health system to cope. Meaning for each rolled-back-measure you'll need to wait a few weeks to gauge if it's safe to progress

Germany's head of the chancellery said yesterday that is what they are planning to do. They'll be using the next two weeks to monitor the situation and then "let young people back on the street" in combination with lots of testing and identifying infected people to stop the virus from spreading exponentially again. Seems sensible to me.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Who on here is arguing for nationwide lockdowns for a year plus? Everybody you’ve been arguing with is talking about buying time, nobody is saying this is about hunkering down till vaccine time, or that we can eradicate the virus this way.

You see, that's where the argument becomes completely pointless though then.

If you're not bunkering down until a vaccine, buying time is simply kicking the can down the road. There's a huge chance that countries instead explode after a lockdown rather than it slowly, steadily, infecting a population whilst not overwhelming the health service.

Obviously stricter rules should come in once you see the curve start to take a big upward turn.

 

[NYAS]

Why do so many people think they’ll be going back to normal lives as soon as the peak is reached?

 

[UncleBob]

Yeah I’m well aware that I’m in the minority on the forum regarding this.
I’d be all for a Wuhan type lockdown, as locking down an entire city with Chinese military might and drones is possible and can work to possibly even eradicate this virus from that city.
Locking down entire countries though? Simply not feasible or possible so the virus will continue to spread, there’s no doubt about that at all once you know how incredibly contagious this is. All locking down will do is to possibly slow it down and buy some time.
But it’s short term, this virus is simply not deadly enough to make long term lockdowns of countries even remotely possible.
So the question all the desperate lockdowners have to ask themselves it what they hope it will achieve. If the answer is “a few weeks to slow it down and get more prepared”, fair play. Any other answer is simply fantasy stuff.

Which is why I’m pleased that Sweden is waiting with drastic measures until we desperately need to “slow it down and buy some weeks”. That might be 2 days, 2 weeks or 2 months away, but better to save it till it’s required.

Most, if not all, countries that have gone for lockdowns, did so when they discovered the virus had spread quicker than anticipated.

"Pleased" is a bit weird, Sweden (like most countries) are gambling on the solution that their medical experts believe is the best route of action. The experts in Norway still maintain that they would've preferred that we lifted some of the restrictions and then monitored it for 3 weeks to see the consequences.

 

[mu4c_20le]

You don't want lockdown until your health service is at the absolute brink of capacity. I've spoken with three people who have gone into London hospitals in the past two days (people who have to be in hospital quite regularly) and they've all said it's eerily quiet.

If you lockdown too early you cause damage to the economy that didn't need to be caused and are left in pretty much the same situation when you relax (hopefully with more ventilators).

Who do you think went into lockdown too early? Lockdown is necessary to control an outbreak, simple as that. Nobody suggested we stay in lockdown for over a year, not even China would do that.

 

[Dante]

I've been trying to argue the same point with no luck. People in here want lockdowns!

We've been in lockdown for 2 days, and I'm already feeling like a prisoner in a cell.

I'll obviously continue to do it, because it's the right thing to do. But wars have been fought to gain the kinds of personal freedoms that we've lost. I'm sure there'll come a breaking point within the wider population as things drag on. And once it does, a second lockdown with be many times harder to enforce. So this one better be enough to last us the next 12-18 months.

 

[UncleBob]

You see, that's where the argument becomes completely pointless though then.

If you're not bunkering down until a vaccine, buying time is simply kicking the can down the road.

Kicking it down the road is a slower road to herd immunity

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

You don't want lockdown until your health service is at the absolute brink of capacity. I've spoken with three people who have gone into London hospitals in the past two days (people who have to be in hospital quite regularly) and they've all said it's eerily quiet.

If you lockdown too early you cause damage to the economy that didn't need to be caused and are left in pretty much the same situation when you relax (hopefully with more ventilators).

People seem to really struggle with this.

If you have 1000 ICU beds, and only 130 being used. Why are you locking down? You surely lockdown when you see 130 double two days running to 520. If you do it at 130 with 200 new cases a day and 15 into ICU, it's just a waste of time and money.

 

[Infra-red]

Why do so many people think they’ll be going back to normal lives as soon as the peak is reached?

Indeed. It is going to be a very long time before our lives are back to "normal".

 

[Dante]

Apparently Dyson almost have the go ahead to make 10000 ventilators available by mid April. 5000 to be donated to the international relief effort, not sure it that’s out of the 10000 or as well as.

How good are they with pet hairs?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Most, if not all, countries that have gone for lockdowns, did so when they discovered the virus had spread quicker than anticipated.

"Pleased" is a bit weird, Sweden (like most countries) are gambling on the solution that their medical experts believe is the best route of action. The experts in Norway still maintain that they would've preferred that we lifted some of the restrictions and then monitored it for 3 weeks to see the consequences.

Bob, everything is a gamble if you don't follow the science.

 

[11101]

Apparently Dyson almost have the go ahead to make 10000 ventilators available by mid April. 5000 to be donated to the international relief effort, not sure it that’s out of the 10000 or as well as.

Yes, designed from scratch and they aim to start production next week. A consortium led by Airbus is also waiting for permission to start manufacturing an existing design in the same time frame.

I remember everybody being insistent it would take months.

 

[Fiskey]

Who do you think went into lockdown too early? Lockdown is necessary to control an outbreak, simple as that. Nobody suggested we stay in lockdown for over a year, not even China would do that.

The UK and probably Germany as well. I think the UK should've isolated older people and at risk groups but schools, and gatherings of people of 20 or below (to keep pubs and restaurants, and those they employ going) should still be going on.

 

[arnie_ni]

Thanks mate. Just got home! And despite not being as exotic as Phuket, immediately feels like the right place to be, especially as Thailand starts military rule and curfews today.

Flight with Qatar passed without incident. Have to commend them their staff and general service - was outstanding Was only 75% full so people were spaced apart.

Landed @ Heathrow and through baggage and immigration in 20 mins (a record!) at 7.30am. Normally the arrivals terminal would be jam packed at this time, but was literally empty. It's going to close very quickly. However, I had to me my taxi outside departure terminal, and that terminal was JAM PACKED with foreign nationals desperately trying to get back their own country before borders close.

Taxi took M4 and M25, 2 very busy motorways which should be packed during ‘rush hour’ - again virtually empty like Sunday mornings. Never ever seen London like this, esp listening about struggles of NHS on radio news - feels like a dystopian movie!

Got home, threw worn clothes straight into hot wash in machine, and immediately jumped into 20 min long hot shower. Now feeling more relaxed as I enjoy my tea and starting my self isolation. Time will tell if I picked it up en route!

Any testing at airport? Temperature even?

How do they know you self isolate for 14 days following your arrival?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Apparently Dyson almost have the go ahead to make 10000 ventilators available by mid April. 5000 to be donated to the international relief effort, not sure it that’s out of the 10000 or as well as.

Awesome stuff that.

 

[Eriku]

You don't want lockdown until your health service is at the absolute brink of capacity. I've spoken with three people who have gone into London hospitals in the past two days (people who have to be in hospital quite regularly) and they've all said it's eerily quiet.

If you lockdown too early you cause damage to the economy that didn't need to be caused and are left in pretty much the same situation when you relax (hopefully with more ventilators).

You see, that's where the argument becomes completely pointless though then.

If you're not bunkering down until a vaccine, buying time is simply kicking the can down the road. There's a huge chance that countries instead explode after a lockdown rather than it slowly, steadily, infecting a population whilst not overwhelming the health service.

Obviously stricter rules should come in once you see the curve start to take a big upward turn.

I addressed this earlier, but you didn’t care to respond to the point, RAB: the initial lockdown is because it’s spread faster than anticipated, and because until we start seeing the impact that comes after incubation period for when it was left entirely unchecked without any measures, we have no idea whether we’re about to blow past capacity or not. This time is also spent beefing up hospitals and their stocks.

It’s erring on the side of caution. We’ll see in a while whether the UK and Sweden will wish they’d put the brakes on this sooner, but for every mate of yours, Fiskey, there’s a few personnel who are very worried about where this is headed. I can’t speak to Sweden’s situation, but then Sweden is a different beast to the UK.

 

[UncleBob]

Bob, everything is a gamble if you don't follow the science.

It's not a 1 and a 0, right route and wrong route.

 

[Dve]

This is behind a pay-wall so I can't read it but doesn't a computer model have to be based on real data for it to have any worth?

How is it relying on other models? What is the source of their data.

Without any hard data to back it up, isn't this pure conjecture?

It´s based on real data of real people being tested in Italy and England, but they cannot say anything definitive about the big masses without symptoms not being tested.

 

[11101]

We've been in lockdown for 2 days, and I'm already feeling like a prisoner in a cell.

I'll obviously continue to do it, because it's the right thing to do. But wars have been fought to gain the kinds of personal freedoms that we've lost. I'm sure there'll come a breaking point within the wider population as things drag on.

Fecking British people, all my friends back home are saying this too. I've been inside for 5 weeks now.

Week 1 is a novelty.
Week 2/3 is when you really start to tear your hair out.
By week 4 you're not really bothered about going out any more. I last went out on Saturday and am quite happy indoors now.

 

[arnie_ni]

People seem to really struggle with this.

If you have 1000 ICU beds, and only 130 being used. Why are you locking down? You surely lockdown when you see 130 double two days running to 520. If you do it at 130 with 200 new cases a day and 15 into ICU, it's just a waste of time and money.

But what if you 500 people at home that in 2 days time will need icu beds and your unaware?

Thatl mean your lockdown is to late.

Its better to be to a week early than a week to late

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Who do you think went into lockdown too early? Lockdown is necessary to control an outbreak, simple as that. Nobody suggested we stay in lockdown for over a year, not even China would do that.

It’ll take months to answer that question I’m afraid.
If they all followed their own scientific models, who am I to argue who was “right” or “wrong”. The proof of the beat measures will be seen in May/June.

 

[RobinLFC]

You don't want lockdown until your health service is at the absolute brink of capacity.

Praise the lord you're not in a position of authority. Must be one of the dumbest things I've heard during this whole crisis.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

But what if you 500 people at home that in 2 days time will need icu beds and your unaware?

Thatl mean your lockdown is to late.

Its better to be to a week early than a week to late

Then those 500 need them anyway. Lockdown or no lockdown.

 

[Dante]

Fecking British people, all my friends back home are saying this too. I've been inside for 5 weeks now.

Week 1 is a novelty.
Week 2/3 is when you really start to tear your hair out.
By week 4 you're not really bothered about going out any more. I last went out on Saturday and am quite happy indoors now.

Everyone's personality is different. It's not because I'm British.

 

[Infra-red]

People seem to really struggle with this.

If you have 1000 ICU beds, and only 130 being used. Why are you locking down? You surely lockdown when you see 130 double two days running to 520. If you do it at 130 with 200 new cases a day and 15 into ICU, it's just a waste of time and money.

Don't forget that there is a lag of a few weeks between infection and the onset of serious disease. For example, the people who got infected at Cheltenham Festival will just now be beginning to show symptoms and won't be hitting the hospital ICUs until sometime next week. That's why you (the government) have to act well before your health system reaches capacity - you always know you have a three week backlog to work through.

 

[arnie_ni]

Then those 500 need them anyway. Lockdown or no lockdown.

Yes, but if you lockdown a week to late and within that week 500 more need icu beds your over capacity in your scenario and people will be dead.

 

[arnie_ni]

Don't forget that there is a lag of a few weeks between infection and the onset of serious disease. For example, the people who got infected at Cheltenham Festival will just now be beginning to show symptoms and won't be hitting the hospital ICUs until sometime next week. That's why you (the government) have to act well before your health system reaches capacity - you always know you have a three week backlog to work through.

Excatly